Real Estate

Is 2016 finally the year that real estate will crash?

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 8th, 2015 10:34 am
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Poll: Real estate crash in 2016?

  • Total votes: 84. You have voted on this poll.
Yes
 
13
15%
No
 
71
85%
Sr. Member
Jan 30, 2006
870 posts
303 upvotes
gomyone wrote: The irony is that clueless people think everyone is nuts except themselves. You tell me I'm full of crap, the Bank of Canada is not rational and that it "will not end well". What makes you any different than the nut job running around saying "repent, repent, for the end is nigh". That's right. Nothing! :facepalm:
I don't say the end is nigh
I just don't see any logic
BoC governor says housing is a sideshow and with rate cuts he is stimulating economy (devaluing dollar in reality)
in US recession was triggered by collapse in housing and the last thing BoC should do is to create blow off top

dollar would collapse even without rate cuts and honestly current rate cuts stimulate only leveraged things like housing.

but given their behavior I totally expect now Canadian QE and Canadian dollar under half US cent within the next 2 years

I don't even want to think what's gonna happen if inflation eventually picks up after massive devaluation and they have to raise rates 2-3% to avoid currency crisis
this is what I mean when saying it will not end well
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Nov 2, 2013
5697 posts
1522 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
Just glanced at the thread title and not surprised to see pages of posts.

I didn't read all of them but assuming a bunch of losers bumming around in mom's basement making $12/hour after going to university and crossing their fingers for a housing crash so they can get a deal and get rich as the houses rebound?
Accountant (Public Practice)
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User avatar
Jan 14, 2009
5887 posts
4817 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
kashirin wrote: I don't say the end is nigh
I just don't see any logic
BoC governor says housing is a sideshow and with rate cuts he is stimulating economy (devaluing dollar in reality)
in US recession was triggered by collapse in housing and the last thing BoC should do is to create blow off top

dollar would collapse even without rate cuts and honestly current rate cuts stimulate only leveraged things like housing.

but given their behavior I totally expect now Canadian QE and Canadian dollar under half US cent within the next 2 years

I don't even want to think what's gonna happen if inflation eventually picks up after massive devaluation and they have to raise rates 2-3% to avoid currency crisis
this is what I mean when saying it will not end well
Are you suggesting that instead of getting mortgages we should take out C$ loans to buy US$?? Interesting idea!! I don't really care what happens as long as I can make a bit of money!
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jun 28, 2007
3866 posts
1027 upvotes
kashirin wrote: I don't say the end is nigh
I just don't see any logic
BoC governor says housing is a sideshow and with rate cuts he is stimulating economy (devaluing dollar in reality)
in US recession was triggered by collapse in housing and the last thing BoC should do is to create blow off top

dollar would collapse even without rate cuts and honestly current rate cuts stimulate only leveraged things like housing.

but given their behavior I totally expect now Canadian QE and Canadian dollar under half US cent within the next 2 years

I don't even want to think what's gonna happen if inflation eventually picks up after massive devaluation and they have to raise rates 2-3% to avoid currency crisis
this is what I mean when saying it will not end well
That some crystal ball you got there - predicting more rate cuts, a 50 U.S. Cent C$, QE in Canada, then massive rate increases to ward off a currency crisis. You'd think after continually being wrong about the housing market crashing and "not ending well" for several years now you'd be a little less prescient with your comments and eat some humble pie!! What's that? Oh right I said the housing wasn't going to crash and there would be a soft landing. Foolish me for being so optimistic!
Sr. Member
Jan 30, 2006
870 posts
303 upvotes
gomyone wrote: That some crystal ball you got there - predicting more rate cuts, a 50 U.S. Cent C$, QE in Canada, then massive rate increases to ward off a currency crisis. You'd think after continually being wrong about the housing market crashing and "not ending well" for several years now you'd be a little less prescient with your comments and eat some humble pie!! What's that? Oh right I said the housing wasn't going to crash and there would be a soft landing. Foolish me for being so optimistic!
at least crash can happen and happened multiple times through the history
soft landings don't even exist.
so I even don't know why are you here with that nonsense

I even don't want to mention how you ridiculed other posters when they said BoC would cut rates
Banned
User avatar
Nov 1, 2014
4317 posts
562 upvotes
Toronto, ON
kashirin wrote: at least crash can happen and happened multiple times through the history
soft landings don't even exist.
so I even don't know why are you here with that nonsense

I even don't want to mention how you ridiculed other posters when they said BoC would cut rates
Crash could happen in our lifetime or not..but yea it will crash one day. For sure it will crash when our sun goes supernova and all life cease on this planet
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2006
1054 posts
253 upvotes
Mississauga
There's always going to be debate about what will happen and the extent to which housing corrects. What tells me to stay away is the "it always goes up" point of view being spouted and encouragement for people to "buy buy buy". Wages are certainly not rising at the rate of house appreciation, and for people to afford houses, one of two things must happen. Either wages will need to rise significantly, or housing will need to correct or at least plateau and wait for wages to rise. I look around at my peer group and I see people gorging on debt, to the degree that even going out is stretching budgets. That's not healthy in my eyes, and the lack of basic financial prudence is going to end up ruining a lot of families. Some may blame hot money from overseas for price rises, but that's arguably only in certain pockets. Look beside you to see who is really pumping the game, and perhaps even look in the mirror.
"If one's conviction is strong enough whether you're a bear or a bull, you should put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise, you don't have skin in the game, and you are nothing more than a cheerleader in the stands" - SamInfinity
Deal Addict
Jun 6, 2015
1435 posts
233 upvotes
I think the answer is: who knows?

Will the Chinese economy stabilize? Will the US raise interest rates? Will Greece's default come back to the headlines? Will the EU go to splits over the refugee crisis? Will the election facilitate a crashing of the cards (Conservative Harper is trying to keep the balls in the air while he goes to the polls based on Harper's 'economic leadership' - N.B. CANADA IS IN RECESSION)

Will the Canadian recession finally hit home hard?

All these variables are a crystal ball which no-one can accurately predict, but of course any fool can speculate, and we all do.

But here's a real life example of the Government's grossly negligent policy of letting people who have no business owning a home, to own a home, with the CMHC subsidy:

cibc-lied-us-now-taking-our-home-180932 ... st23573667

If the economy continues to stagnate, and Canada's very low levels of wages (even at professional levels) continues to stagnate, COMBINED with increasing interest rates, I can see these situations happen more and more.

What we do know is that Canadian household debt is now over 164% and the house prices at least in my part of the hood are at unsustainable and ridiculous levels. So, it still remains: let's see, and who knows. But I think some of the writing is on the wall, and if/when prices start to stagnate or drop, everyone will be bleating "I told you so...."
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Apr 20, 2011
5310 posts
484 upvotes
Vancouver
Doesn't appear to be a recession

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e26246943/

"But a broader look, as Bank of Montreal’s Douglas Porter put it, suggests the “end is not nigh.” Or, as the chief economist noted in a recent report: “Best. Recession. Ever.”"\


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.3186900
"Falling Canadian dollar, low prices and high rankings are making Vancouver a prime investment"
Sr. Member
Jan 30, 2006
870 posts
303 upvotes
LandKing wrote: Crash could happen in our lifetime or not..but yea it will crash one day. For sure it will crash when our sun goes supernova and all life cease on this planet
when you have those thoughts and want to lough at people who predict crash google 'peter schiff was right' and watch it again and agian and again
maybe you will understand then how stupid arrogant pumpers look like
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Nov 2, 2013
5697 posts
1522 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
davka wrote: The crash has already happened. A couple with 2 kids immigrated last year and brought with them US $480K (yes they werent poor). In June 2014 they exchanged their money and got about $510K CAD they bought a $500K home and paid the rest for legal fees etc. Since then, the price of their home went up to $510K. However, for that amount they can onlY purchase $384K USD today. SO in reality they did not gain $10K CAD, they lost $96K USD or over 20 % of their investment and will continue to lose when BOC cuts the rates again and the Feds raise their rates.
But that isn't a RE-exclusive problem, rather it's the currency. You could have bought some other investment in CAD and have the same issue. Much of my money is in equities and if I wanted to sell and convert CAD -> USD I would have the same problem.
Accountant (Public Practice)
Sr. Member
Jan 30, 2006
870 posts
303 upvotes
popbottle wrote: Doesn't appear to be a recession

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e26246943/

"But a broader look, as Bank of Montreal’s Douglas Porter put it, suggests the “end is not nigh.” Or, as the chief economist noted in a recent report: “Best. Recession. Ever.”"\


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.3186900
"Falling Canadian dollar, low prices and high rankings are making Vancouver a prime investment"
usual crap how Vancouver is cheap comparing to London or Manhattan without any numbers
Even though Vancouver 5 leagues below and never should be compared to London
if you 're not lazy you would do comparison and find out that close suburbs cost around 500 -600k pounds which is a little more than 1M canadian
and how much is Vancouver suburbs? like west Vancouver?

so please, stop posting crap
Deal Addict
Aug 1, 2006
1005 posts
100 upvotes
popbottle wrote: look it up - www.realtylink.org - US real estate has property taxes 2 to 3 times higher than that in Canada
You seem to have a fixation with this simply untrue information.
Deal Addict
Aug 1, 2006
1005 posts
100 upvotes
Is Denver, CO area a good enough reference? It's a super-hot/sellers' market here and the property taxes are ... incredibly super-low.
If yes, then you assertion is false.
Deal Addict
Aug 1, 2006
1005 posts
100 upvotes
popbottle wrote: www.zillow.com US taxes are higher
Yeah, search for any house on zillow.com, around zip code = 80027, priced between 500,000 and 1.5 million and square footage (above ground) as high as 4,000. You will notice petty prop taxes (ranging between $1,200 US and $3000 US). You call that high??? I will gladly purchase a property in Denver than in Ontario.

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