33.5 years before global warming becomes "almost surely dangerous" - NASA

[Bazooka Joe]

According to this, our atmosphere already contains 383ppm CO2. It's increasing at a rate of 2ppm/year. 450ppm is "almost surely dangerous", which means even if the rate of CO2 production stays the same as it is now (which it won't), there's trouble ahead in 33.5 years.


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http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2...a-warming.html

NASA scientist calls for 'full court press' to save ice caps

Dramatic action is needed to save the Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves from global warming, a NASA researcher says.

“We probably need a full court press on both CO2 emission rates and non-CO2 forcings to avoid tipping points and save Arctic sea ice and the West Antarctic ice sheet,” James Hansen, from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in a release.

Another decade of "business-as-usual" will make it difficult to avoid the change, he added.

Hansen and co-researcher Makiko Sato from the Columbia University Earth Institute concluded that global warming has driven the Earth's climate near to "critical tipping points," which occur when a small temperature increase triggers an effect that gets worse as it feeds on itself.

An increase of one degree above the global temperature in 2000 "is likely to be dangerous," because it will push the climate to a tipping point.

Hansen and Sato identified the Arctic and Antarctic ice as two vulnerable areas in a study based on simulations published Thursday in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. They acknowledged that identifying "dangerous" effects is partly subjective.

The study found global warming of 0.6 degrees in the past 30 years was mainly caused by greenhouse gases made by humans, and a "moderate" additional rise "is likely to set in motion disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and Arctic sea ice."

Higher temperatures melt ice, exposing darker surfaces that absorb more heat and speed the ice sheet breakup. As oceans warm, the ice shelves that otherwise slow ice flows melt more quickly, so the whole process speeds up.

Freshwater sources and species habitat are also threatened, the authors said.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased from the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million (ppm) to 383 ppm today, and is rising by about two ppm per year. Sato said “CO2 exceeding 450 ppm is almost surely dangerous, and the ceiling may be even lower.”

[ShadowVlican]

surely humans cannot be the cause of this

[infinite.chaoz]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.

[actuary]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.

How soon? How many years?

[atforum]

Is not their chief-commander-in-chief not accepting any global proposal to reduce emissions?? Are these guys revolting by releasing this report

[infinite.chaoz]

How soon? How many years?

Can't remember exactly, but my ecology prof mention something about this cuz he did one of his thesis on this topic. He correlated some data obtained from ice core samples.

When ever it is, its not soon enough. Cuz its freaking hot right now.

[bionicbadger]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...

[infinite.chaoz]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...

wouldn't somebody please think of the children

[toujours]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.

Don't forget that the deniers have criticized Al Gore for associating past CO2 levels with rises in temperature, when in fact they like to point out that there was an 800 year lag in CO2 concentrations (probably caused by "burps" of CO2 from the oceans). I don't understand how you come to the conclusion that the next Ice Age is "soon" (whatever "soon" means).

[toujours]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...

Sounds like your old age will be shi**y.

[infinite.chaoz]

Don't forget that the deniers have criticized Al Gore for associating past CO2 levels with rises in temperature, when in fact they like to point out that there was an 800 year lag in CO2 concentrations (probably caused by "burps" of CO2 from the oceans). I don't understand how you come to the conclusion that the next Ice Age is "soon" (whatever "soon" means).

From data extrapolation i guess. Its been 3 yrs since i took that class, i can't really remember all the details, but I did remember about the prof saying right before the previous ice age, there was a substantial increase in the factors that we are experiencing right now. Also recall something about the ice age can be triggered by the orbit, tilt, and wobble the earth relative to the sun. Don't know how that fits in with CO2. I'm just throwing these things out there to make the discussion more interesting

[Driftwood]

Pffft what does a NASA scientist know...

[shabby]

So this global warming thing started just now? Hmm intresting...

[zmtomako]

global warming or not, its getting hot here

screw everything, some1 think of my AC->electric bills

[sixer]

Lot of selfish people posting in this thread, not to mention they're won't be another ice age, just simply 30% of the coastal areas won't exist, where are those people going to go? Temperatures will be much higher, greenland will be gone, species will be gone, droughts, famine, immense storms, and not far off the end of the world as we know if our governments don't change things. North America is the worst polluter.

Do your part, vote Green Party, get rid of your suv and/or luxury sedan or sports car, and be energy efficient. Every other government in charge can't get it right, give them a chance.

Our poor kids future, it's so sad.