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Aim.to (Aeroplan)

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  • Aug 19th, 2017 11:41 am
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Feb 26, 2008
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treva84 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 6:55 pm
If they aren't going to pay a dividend on the prefs they should just redeem them (says the pref holder).

So, if they have suspended the pref divvies because they 1) might not have enough cash flow to meet all of their future obligations; and 2) might have insufficient capital to meet the requirements of the CBCA, how do you think they could possibly redeem the prefs? Redeeming the prefs would require about 20x as much cash as paying the pref divvy and would reduce the equity on AIM's balance sheet.
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Jan 16, 2011
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jerryhung wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 12:13 pm
Congrats, that's $15K gain in your RRSP, brave men for putting $75K into AIM
Not really brave, if you saw my posts here and the what did you buy thread I have flipped this one 3 times over the last month netting $6750 over the three flips. I didn't see anymore downside at all and firmly believe in the fact that the average Aeroplan user has no clue what's going on. There was going to be no points run and with the dividend cut there would be more cash.

The biggest fear I had was how no one else saw this? I kept thinking my dumbass must be wrong, I've had multiple conversations with my wife walking though my process and she supported my gambling 70% of my RRSP. But with almost $22k in profits in a little over a month, I'm happy.
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Sep 19, 2004
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kr0zet wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:20 am
Not really brave, if you saw my posts here and the what did you buy thread I have flipped this one 3 times over the last month netting $6750 over the three flips. I didn't see anymore downside at all and firmly believe in the fact that the average Aeroplan user has no clue what's going on. There was going to be no points run and with the dividend cut there would be more cash.

The biggest fear I had was how no one else saw this? I kept thinking my dumbass must be wrong, I've had multiple conversations with my wife walking though my process and she supported my gambling 70% of my RRSP. But with almost $22k in profits in a little over a month, I'm happy.
It's easier to say that now after the fact (20-20 hindsight), either way congrats on the winning trade
I've learned that Oversold stuff can remain oversold, or pops can be just that, short pops (e.g. HCG $20 to $5 to $17/$20 and now back to $13)
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Oct 1, 2011
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brunes wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:16 am
Unless Air Canada changes course or buys AIM outright, anyone that thinks that AIM is not going to go bankrupt shortly after 2020 is living in a reality distortion field.
I'm not confident in the long-term prospects for AIM, but saying they'll go bankrupt shortly after 2020 is a bit of a stretch. And surely doesn't affect the fact that there's money to be made in the short term,
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Jun 26, 2011
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Out @ 1.96. Decided I don't want to be in for the long haul.
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kneevase wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:18 am
So, if they have suspended the pref divvies because they 1) might not have enough cash flow to meet all of their future obligations; and 2) might have insufficient capital to meet the requirements of the CBCA, how do you think they could possibly redeem the prefs? Redeeming the prefs would require about 20x as much cash as paying the pref divvy and would reduce the equity on AIM's balance sheet.
I know, wishful thinking.
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Feb 19, 2010
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brunes wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:16 am
Unless Air Canada changes course or buys AIM outright, anyone that thinks that AIM is not going to go bankrupt shortly after 2020 is living in a reality distortion field. There is no possible way they are going to survive. They don't have nearly enough partners to compete with Air Miles, and consumers and companies in general are gravitating AWAY from cross-brand loyalty programs like AIr Miles in general (consumers because they prefer to save a buck then get points, and companies because it is a lot cheaper now to run your own mobile / digital loyalty program than contract it out to companies like Amia).

The only reason anyone should be looking at this stock right now is to short it.
FWIW the President of Aimia (Americas) has a different view.

https://www.aeroplan.com/program-update ... AN30000311
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Oct 9, 2008
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mikerfd wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:47 am
I'm not confident in the long-term prospects for AIM, but saying they'll go bankrupt shortly after 2020 is a bit of a stretch. And surely doesn't affect the fact that there's money to be made in the short term,
Worst case scenario in my mind is that AIMIA doesn't find another airline partner to replace AC by 2020, however they'll likely at least be able to partner with one or multiple airlines just to buy seating capacity at a discount then offer this to collectors. Even in this worst case scenario I think it's likely they'll be able to prevent liquidity crisis seeing as how they'll devalue points redemption to counter the lost 'fat'.
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Oct 1, 2011
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Jeenyus1 wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 1:50 pm
Worst case scenario in my mind is that AIMIA doesn't find another airline partner to replace AC by 2020, however they'll likely at least be able to partner with one or multiple airlines just to buy seating capacity at a discount then offer this to collectors. Even in this worst case scenario I think it's likely they'll be able to prevent liquidity crisis seeing as how they'll devalue points redemption to counter the lost 'fat'.
My concern is not with airline partners, but the general competitiveness of the entire industry and how many different points programs people can collect or are being offered. Or the fact that the banks (their other major customers) can just as easily push their own cash back cards vs. aeroplan cards. My feeling on the stock is that after the bump the other day, it will drift downward slowly again and then probably get another couple bumps if Q3 & Q4 numbers are decent. I sold my position at $1.98, with about a 12% return in a couple months, so I'm out for now.
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jerryhung wrote:
Aug 14th, 2017 2:58 pm
out of no where, AIM +10%
$2.18-$1.97 day range
Maybe there's some inside information of a deal with another Star Alliance carrier? Or perhaps an alliance with WestJet?
I'd love to write history... in advance.
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Apr 21, 2010
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Yea odd, even after NB cut the price target to $1.5 mind you others didn't / have much higher targets;
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taal wrote:
Aug 14th, 2017 5:30 pm
Yea odd, even after NB cut the price target to $1.5 mind you others didn't / have much higher targets;
What does NB stand for? Nvm national bank

Also anyone buying at these prices?
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Sep 5, 2012
366 posts
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Interesting discussion point

From Bullboards in stockhouse.com

Catalyst to go Higher
Hi all,

First off, congrats to all the Longs thus far. Today was another blockbuster day for everyone who continues to hold on.

I don't want to repeat all the good points already discussed here, but I did want to add a few things to the discussion:

1) CIBC was a major buyer today of Aimia....while this alone is nothing noteworthy, that brings us to:

2) CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aimia Inc. in the next 3 months. This is disclosed in their analyst research reports.

For anyone who is not familiar with Investment Banking, that usually breaks down to three possible services: Equity Raise, Debt Raise, or Strategic Options. We can dismiss both the equity and debt raises because those are not going to happen, which leaves us with Strategic Options. This, of course, includes acquisitions and divestitures. It's no secret that Aimia continues to do work on selling off non-core business, but I believe CIBC may also be brokering a sale of the company to Air Canada. I think we can all see how buying Aimia would be beneficial to Air Canada in order to de-risk the creation of its own loyalty program and they would be getting it at a steep discount.

The focused buying from CIBC today can further that narrative as they accumulate shares for their institutional investors which would realize a windfall on any transaction.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but I think this is another reason (among many) why this stock continues to be a strong investment.

Cheers,
Apathy

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bul ... PQ0IrhA.99
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Mar 27, 2008
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brunes wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 9:16 am
Unless Air Canada changes course or buys AIM outright, anyone that thinks that AIM is not going to go bankrupt shortly after 2020 is living in a reality distortion field. There is no possible way they are going to survive. They don't have nearly enough partners to compete with Air Miles, and consumers and companies in general are gravitating AWAY from cross-brand loyalty programs like AIr Miles in general (consumers because they prefer to save a buck then get points, and companies because it is a lot cheaper now to run your own mobile / digital loyalty program than contract it out to companies like Amia).

The only reason anyone should be looking at this stock right now is to short it.
The fact you only spoke of Aeroplan speaks volume about how much you know about Aimia. This isn't a one trick pony company and even if Aeroplan becomes nothing, AIM is still worth ~$2 with the rest of the company.

Now, if you are saying Aeroplan will become a total liability and Aimia doesn't do anything to cushion the fall (you weren't saying this), then yes, they will bankrupt.

There are also many other options such as breaking the company apart/selling assets or strategic partnerships. Many outlets to help keep buyers in the reality distortion field.

In the meantime, longs can be glad it went up ~36% in 2 days. Maybe it will run up to $4-5 around 2020 before going bankrupt.. only you seem to know for certain.
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