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Aim.to (Aeroplan)

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  • Jul 14th, 2017 4:27 pm
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Member
Dec 2, 2014
359 posts
101 upvotes
London, ON
zobi123 wrote:
May 12th, 2017 9:26 pm
Whats up with Enercare dropping 10%. It is usually a super stable low volatility stock.
They had to renew the sub-metering contracts they had with several major property management companies at a lower rate because of "competitive pressures". I have no doubt that will be more than off-set with their HVAC business in the US so I am glad for the opportunity.

It did drop another 4% after I grabbed it, which sucks, but it's a forever hold so whatever. I'll just collect the growing divy and forget I own it.
Member
Nov 20, 2005
441 posts
3 upvotes
Scarborough
Anyone holding AIM for the longer term? My thought is the company has a lot of potential.. as someone pointed out AC could easily just buy them out vs facing all the potential challenges launching
another program.

Also any thoughts on where it will head next week?
Sr. Member
Jun 20, 2010
577 posts
218 upvotes
bloodwulf wrote:
May 13th, 2017 9:17 pm
Anyone holding AIM for the longer term? My thought is the company has a lot of potential.. as someone pointed out AC could easily just buy them out vs facing all the potential challenges launching
another program.

Also any thoughts on where it will head next week?
Me. Maybe a few weeks or sometime around the exdiv date. Depends on how it moves. Common shares yield is very very competitive, probably the best right now so I expect interest. Also, obviously a lot could happen between now and 2020.

No one nows what will happen next week but I'm going to say share price will go up because Nostradamus said so. :D
Deal Fanatic
Feb 15, 2006
6631 posts
1277 upvotes
Toronto
AC would not buy AIM. The optics is awful if they attempt to do something like that -- spin off a company, do business with them, cause them to almost go bankrupt by saying they'll build something to replace them, then try to buy them cheap. Not only the optics is bad, there will be law suits flying. It won't happen.

AIM is going down. They lost THE major contract. There is an end date coming. There is a lost of confidence in the company. There may be opportunities to make money on the volatility, but the writing is on the war for the company to go down.
Member
Nov 20, 2005
441 posts
3 upvotes
Scarborough
Arrgh wrote:
May 14th, 2017 9:29 pm
AC would not buy AIM. The optics is awful if they attempt to do something like that -- spin off a company, do business with them, cause them to almost go bankrupt by saying they'll build something to replace them, then try to buy them cheap. Not only the optics is bad, there will be law suits flying. It won't happen.

AIM is going down. They lost THE major contract. There is an end date coming. There is a lost of confidence in the company. There may be opportunities to make money on the volatility, but the writing is on the war for the company to go down.

The contract is not 100% lost still.. 3 years or so before it expires. Also AC was only 10% of their revenue.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 15, 2006
6631 posts
1277 upvotes
Toronto
bloodwulf wrote:
May 14th, 2017 10:06 pm
The contract is not 100% lost still.. 3 years or so before it expires. Also AC was only 10% of their revenue.
You can have your wishful thinking for AIM to go up. Others will look at the lost business model, lost business, lost confidence, everything pointing to a company going down.
Member
Nov 20, 2005
441 posts
3 upvotes
Scarborough
Arrgh wrote:
May 14th, 2017 11:12 pm
You can have your wishful thinking for AIM to go up. Others will look at the lost business model, lost business, lost confidence, everything pointing to a company going down.
I have stated facts though with the 3 year expiration and 10% revenue.. whatever happens happens.. only time will tell whether the business model is actually lost etc.
Newbie
Apr 8, 2017
58 posts
19 upvotes
bloodwulf wrote:
May 15th, 2017 12:24 am
I have stated facts though with the 3 year expiration and 10% revenue.. whatever happens happens.. only time will tell whether the business model is actually lost etc.
The real question is not about revenue from AC but the redemption and points value.

As aeroplan collector i will keep accumulating points till next year then cash my points out on a summer vacation and will stop collecting any more aeroplan points.

Take into consideration that air miles are reshaping their loyality program and will take advantage and put more pressure on AIM now to take the number one spot.
[OP]
Sr. Member
Nov 13, 2013
599 posts
205 upvotes
bloodwulf wrote:
May 14th, 2017 10:06 pm
The contract is not 100% lost still.. 3 years or so before it expires. Also AC was only 10% of their revenue.
The 10% stat is misleading. Access to Air Canada seats costs them money but it critical to their business. Personally I will switch to the new Air Canada program and likely cancel my Aeroplan membership and I earn well over 100,000 points a year. Without the privileged access and Star Alliance what is left is basically Airmiles. I have an Airmiles card for Shell and Sobey's purchases but mostly find the program annoying. I suspect a lot of Aeroplan's best customers who are frequent travelers will find the same.
Jr. Member
Nov 30, 2015
150 posts
29 upvotes
Toronto, ON
fogetmylogin wrote:
May 15th, 2017 9:25 am
The 10% stat is misleading. Access to Air Canada seats costs them money but it critical to their business. Personally I will switch to the new Air Canada program and likely cancel my Aeroplan membership and I earn well over 100,000 points a year. Without the privileged access and Star Alliance what is left is basically Airmiles. I have an Airmiles card for Shell and Sobey's purchases but mostly find the program annoying. I suspect a lot of Aeroplan's best customers who are frequent travelers will find the same.
They still have access to AC seats even after 2020, just not partner seats and they could potentially organize that as well. Air Miles is garbage and always has been, but so many people collect it for their measly rewards and so it will be with Aeroplan. My mom collected it for 10 years and was overjoyed to get a flight to come see me in Toronto from Calgary for that. Frequent flyers may seem like they are a large contingent of Aeroplan's customers but the majority of customers are lemmings who fill their gas, do their groceries and dream of redeeming their points for a trip to Italy in economy class. They will not leave as long as there are opportunities to collect points and something or really anything to redeem it on. The sophisticated mile collector is a much smaller niche than you think. Also corporate travel is becoming less common these days with technology so that segment in 5 - 10 years will be even less of a blow to AIM's bottom line than it is now...
Deal Fanatic
Jun 26, 2011
9625 posts
717 upvotes
StarScream1337 wrote:
May 13th, 2017 6:26 pm
They had to renew the sub-metering contracts they had with several major property management companies at a lower rate because of "competitive pressures". I have no doubt that will be more than off-set with their HVAC business in the US so I am glad for the opportunity.

It did drop another 4% after I grabbed it, which sucks, but it's a forever hold so whatever. I'll just collect the growing divy and forget I own it.
Down again today - I bought in as well.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 26, 2011
9625 posts
717 upvotes
Aimia announces election of directors today.

Hopefully this is the start of a nice recovery. I was surprised to see it fizzle out late in the day after quite the rise early. I think the best thing favouring those who are holding on is that AIM has a few years to sort things out and find new partnerships and value adds to their program. I think there's a good chance that they will salvage the program and Air Canada's may end up being a bit of a flop depending on how strictly you are tied to earning/using points with Air Canada in the new program.

Tomorrow should be interesting to see whether or not the selling has exhausted but it is a good sign that Friday's lows were not close to being touched.
Deal Addict
User avatar
May 11, 2014
1441 posts
550 upvotes
Iqaluit, NT
socialmindset wrote:
May 15th, 2017 10:57 am
They still have access to AC seats even after 2020, just not partner seats and they could potentially organize that as well. Air Miles is garbage and always has been, but so many people collect it for their measly rewards and so it will be with Aeroplan. My mom collected it for 10 years and was overjoyed to get a flight to come see me in Toronto from Calgary for that. Frequent flyers may seem like they are a large contingent of Aeroplan's customers but the majority of customers are lemmings who fill their gas, do their groceries and dream of redeeming their points for a trip to Italy in economy class. They will not leave as long as there are opportunities to collect points and something or really anything to redeem it on. The sophisticated mile collector is a much smaller niche than you think. Also corporate travel is becoming less common these days with technology so that segment in 5 - 10 years will be even less of a blow to AIM's bottom line than it is now...
This is true, however, Aeroplan does not have the partnerships or the visibility that Airmiles has. In order for Aeroplan to fill this segment, they will have to compete even further with Airmiles. Business partnerships with Aeroplan have been focused on the fact that it is Air Canada's program. I would not be surprised by many businesses discontinue partnership with Aeroplan and switch to Air Canada's new program should the new program allow it to do so. Airmiles after the backlash over the past year is in a vulnerable position as well and will likely push to ensure that it doesn't get pushed out. Stores such as Sobeys, Shell, Metro etc. are in positions where they can either continue their partnership, switch boats to Aeroplan, or further yet, create their own program. Sobeys has the Club Sobeys card in Ontario where Metro has the Airmiles partnership and formerly in Western Canada before the Safeway takeover. They may decide to forgo the Airmiles program due to the backlash from customers, but it doesn't mean going to Aeroplan. Club Sobeys did have the Aeroplan transfer in the past.

Another upcoming contender is More Rewards that is owned by Jim Pattison. Although it is mostly Save-on-Foods/Overwaitea in Western Canada, it has started to partner with Petro Canada, Panago Pizza, some hotel chains, and anything owned by Jim Pattison (so pretty much all of BC :P). I would not be surprised that it start making broader partnerships with other retailers too.

While I think Aeroplan will survive, I am curious how this will play out. The road to recovery for Aeroplan might be rough.

Funny possibility could be Aeroplan could partner with Aeromexico since Aimia owns Club Premier Smiling Face With Open Mouth And Smiling Eyes

The thing is, I think the loyalty point industry in Canada is a bit saturated. Consumers have started backing away from the zeal.
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Jr. Member
Nov 30, 2015
150 posts
29 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Thanks, great analysis! I would also rely on the status quo for Aeroplan. Like you said market is saturated and we don't have any real winners in Canada that would give enough incentive for folks to switch. I think it will be a long road but I could see the price double on this stock within 6 months if they announce a few partnerships.
xgbsSS wrote:
May 15th, 2017 11:59 pm
This is true, however, Aeroplan does not have the partnerships or the visibility that Airmiles has. In order for Aeroplan to fill this segment, they will have to compete even further with Airmiles. Business partnerships with Aeroplan have been focused on the fact that it is Air Canada's program. I would not be surprised by many businesses discontinue partnership with Aeroplan and switch to Air Canada's new program should the new program allow it to do so. Airmiles after the backlash over the past year is in a vulnerable position as well and will likely push to ensure that it doesn't get pushed out. Stores such as Sobeys, Shell, Metro etc. are in positions where they can either continue their partnership, switch boats to Aeroplan, or further yet, create their own program. Sobeys has the Club Sobeys card in Ontario where Metro has the Airmiles partnership and formerly in Western Canada before the Safeway takeover. They may decide to forgo the Airmiles program due to the backlash from customers, but it doesn't mean going to Aeroplan. Club Sobeys did have the Aeroplan transfer in the past.

Another upcoming contender is More Rewards that is owned by Jim Pattison. Although it is mostly Save-on-Foods/Overwaitea in Western Canada, it has started to partner with Petro Canada, Panago Pizza, some hotel chains, and anything owned by Jim Pattison (so pretty much all of BC :P). I would not be surprised that it start making broader partnerships with other retailers too.

While I think Aeroplan will survive, I am curious how this will play out. The road to recovery for Aeroplan might be rough.

Funny possibility could be Aeroplan could partner with Aeromexico since Aimia owns Club Premier Smiling Face With Open Mouth And Smiling Eyes

The thing is, I think the loyalty point industry in Canada is a bit saturated. Consumers have started backing away from the zeal.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
3902 posts
793 upvotes
Thornhill
socialmindset wrote:
May 16th, 2017 9:41 am
Thanks, great analysis! I would also rely on the status quo for Aeroplan. Like you said market is saturated and we don't have any real winners in Canada that would give enough incentive for folks to switch. I think it will be a long road but I could see the price double on this stock within 6 months if they announce a few partnerships.
That's basically all I think it would need for confidence to be restored - preferably an announcement of partnership with a new airline would be great.

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