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Aim.to (Aeroplan)

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Jan 16, 2011
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1xTiMeR wrote:
Jul 25th, 2018 3:13 pm
You're the one who bet it all on this. You must be a happy camper?!

I bet it all twice. Had 40,000 shares between 2 accounts at around $2.1x and sold half at $3.70 but rode the rest back down to $2.45 and got out after the nectar deal. When it finally found some solid ground and had a good quarterly report I re evaluated why I sold and decided to buy back in. I have 16,000 shares in my TFSA @ $1.81 and 28,500 in my RRSP @ $1.81 and then there was the Amazon deal and the new CEO. I knew the ship was righted but never thought we'd be over $3 before the August quarterly report.

I have stop losses in place this time but have no interest in selling before this all plays out. It sounds like AC was in talks with the old management team to buy Aeroplan but the new team is showing all the signs of going it alone. If the quarterly is good (and there is no sign it won't be) and the deal is rejected than this is going to get heated between now and Halloween!
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 25th, 2018 3:39 pm
I bet it all twice. Had 40,000 shares between 2 accounts at around $2.1x and sold half at $3.70 but rode the rest back down to $2.45 and got out after the nectar deal. When it finally found some solid ground and had a good quarterly report I re evaluated why I sold and decided to buy back in. I have 16,000 shares in my TFSA @ $1.81 and 28,500 in my RRSP @ $1.81 and then there was the Amazon deal and the new CEO. I knew the ship was righted but never thought we'd be over $3 before the August quarterly report.

I have stop losses in place this time but have no interest in selling before this all plays out. It sounds like AC was in talks with the old management team to buy Aeroplan but the new team is showing all the signs of going it alone. If the quarterly is good (and there is no sign it won't be) and the deal is rejected than this is going to get heated between now and Halloween!
Awesome trades. You sir are a believer!
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 25th, 2018 3:39 pm
I bet it all twice. Had 40,000 shares between 2 accounts at around $2.1x and sold half at $3.70 but rode the rest back down to $2.45 and got out after the nectar deal. When it finally found some solid ground and had a good quarterly report I re evaluated why I sold and decided to buy back in. I have 16,000 shares in my TFSA @ $1.81 and 28,500 in my RRSP @ $1.81 and then there was the Amazon deal and the new CEO. I knew the ship was righted but never thought we'd be over $3 before the August quarterly report.

I have stop losses in place this time but have no interest in selling before this all plays out. It sounds like AC was in talks with the old management team to buy Aeroplan but the new team is showing all the signs of going it alone. If the quarterly is good (and there is no sign it won't be) and the deal is rejected than this is going to get heated between now and Halloween!
Well done! Not a trade I could have followed (too risky for me) !
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And Aeromexico is now offering to buy Aimia's 49% stake in PLM Premier, the Mexican version of Aeroplan for $180 million. Mittleman values that asset at $480 million, the offer is 38% of the valuation...

PLM Premier offer

I think that I'm putting in a sell order for $3.80 (about 38%) of where middleman says the value of the company is and call it a day. If it hits I'll walk with almost $130,000 in profit in 14 months. It may not be a weed or crypto stock but it's my moon shot....
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 9:52 am
And Aeromexico is now offering to buy Aimia's 49% stake in PLM Premier, the Mexican version of Aeroplan for $180 million. Mittleman values that asset at $480 million, the offer is 38% of the valuation...

PLM Premier offer

I think that I'm putting in a sell order for $3.80 (about 38%) of where middleman says the value of the company is and call it a day. If it hits I'll walk with almost $130,000 in profit in 14 months. It may not be a weed or crypto stock but it's my moon shot....
Congrats, rare winners from this whole AC/AIM mess
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 9:52 am
And Aeromexico is now offering to buy Aimia's 49% stake in PLM Premier, the Mexican version of Aeroplan for $180 million. Mittleman values that asset at $480 million, the offer is 38% of the valuation...

PLM Premier offer

I think that I'm putting in a sell order for $3.80 (about 38%) of where middleman says the value of the company is and call it a day. If it hits I'll walk with almost $130,000 in profit in 14 months. It may not be a weed or crypto stock but it's my moon shot....
Congrats to you. I would not have the balls to put a 6-figure bet on AIM at the time.
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Jon Lai wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 11:16 am
Congrats to you. I would not have the balls to put a 6-figure bet on AIM at the time.
Me either with that $5 billion redemption liability.
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Oct 7, 2011
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alanbrenton wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 12:25 pm
Me either with that $5 billion redemption liability.
Didn't they say it's $2B?

Wonder if AIM is still a good trading stock, until Aug. 2
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alanbrenton wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 12:25 pm
Me either with that $5 billion redemption liability.
You know what, you convinced me to go back through and reread this entire thread from the start. After doing that I realized 2 things.

1, my original thesis was that Canadians will not abandon Aeroplan for a new rewards program en mass as people are creatures of habit and that has not changed.
2, I did say that I wanted to wait and see what happened with this offer and the new news today doesn't change that.

I then started to do some digging on my own and realized that the offer from AC is fantastic for AC. They get an established rewards program with a user base for $250 million dollars. Liabilities for point redemption are not factored in as part of an acquisition, that straight horse patties! Thats like saying AC knows and guarantees there will be no breakage and that every point will be redeemed at the highest value. Let's look at this:

Since the announcement there has not been a single quarter to show a run on redemption of point; which was the number one concern when this whole thing happened. Canadians are not redeeming their Aeroplan points any faster than they were before the announcement. I believe this is because as I stated before Canadians don't change their shopping patterns easily. It's also because planning a vacation isn't something you can do with the drop of a hat. Now after a year there has been no show of increase on point Redemption by Canadians. If this trend continues for the August quarterly report then this argument no longer holds water.

So AC is trying to bully Aimia with a bid to purchase Aeroplan for $250 million and needs an answer before the next quarterly report, why? *Speculation Time* I believe that the old board WAS in talks to purchase Aimia and they were divesting noncore holding to accomplish that. They sold Nectar, and Airmiles North America... What AC did not expect was that an American company would buy 12% of Aimia and install a new board. The new board is NOT interested in underselling it's asset and is moving forward with Aeroplan 2.0, is that a negotiating tatic? Who knows.

So what does this all mean? Well I talked it over with my wife, she has been my sounding board when we are up and when we are down. God love her she has no idea what I am talking about half the time but listens and just keeps asking me why I bought and what changed. Today she asked me and I realized not much has changed...

So I have removed my sell orders and adjust my stop losses. I think this goes higher by the end if the year.

*I would recommend that no one listen to me, I'm not an expert and I am basing half of this opinion on the psychology of Canadian shoppers being unwilling to change...*
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 1:50 pm
You know what, you convinced me to go back through and reread this entire thread from the start. After doing that I realized 2 things.

1, my original thesis was that Canadians will not abandon Aeroplan for a new rewards program en mass as people are creatures of habit and that has not changed.
2, I did say that I wanted to wait and see what happened with this offer and the new news today doesn't change that.

I then started to do some digging on my own and realized that the offer from AC is fantastic for AC. They get an established rewards program with a user base for $250 million dollars. Liabilities for point redemption are not factored in as part of an acquisition, that straight horse patties! Thats like saying AC knows and guarantees there will be no breakage and that every point will be redeemed at the highest value. Let's look at this:

Since the announcement there has not been a single quarter to show a run on redemption of point; which was the number one concern when this whole thing happened. Canadians are not redeeming their Aeroplan points any faster than they were before the announcement. I believe this is because as I stated before Canadians don't change their shopping patterns easily. It's also because planning a vacation isn't something you can do with the drop of a hat. Now after a year there has been no show of increase on point Redemption by Canadians. If this trend continues for the August quarterly report then this argument no longer holds water.

So AC is trying to bully Aimia with a bid to purchase Aeroplan for $250 million and needs an answer before the next quarterly report, why? *Speculation Time* I believe that the old board WAS in talks to purchase Aimia and they were divesting noncore holding to accomplish that. They sold Nectar, and Airmiles North America... What AC did not expect was that an American company would buy 12% of Aimia and install a new board. The new board is NOT interested in underselling it's asset and is moving forward with Aeroplan 2.0, is that a negotiating tatic? Who knows.

So what does this all mean? Well I talked it over with my wife, she has been my sounding board when we are up and when we are down. God love her she has no idea what I am talking about half the time but listens and just keeps asking me why I bought and what changed. Today she asked me and I realized not much has changed...

So I have removed my sell orders and adjust my stop losses. I think this goes higher by the end if the year.

*I would recommend that no one listen to me, I'm not an expert and I am basing half of this opinion on the psychology of Canadian shoppers being unwilling to change...*
Hey follow what the significant shareholders do. Hopefully the bid price goes up upon initially and successive rejections.

But if there are no higher bids, we will have to see what happens.

Bidding consortium is probably the only buyer of AIM at the moment.

Good luck on your investment. Hopefully that 140k turns into 1.4m :)
Last edited by alanbrenton on Jul 26th, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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And not to thread spam but Aimia just declined the Aeromexico offer stating that they get almost $80 million in dividend payments yearly till 2030
"The Company has promptly rejected the offer as it believes that its stake in PLM is worth significantly more than the offer price, which reflected no improvement whatsoever to the terms previously proposed by Aeromexico to Aimia in prior discussions between the parties," Aimia said in a statement Thursday.

Aimia noted that PLM generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of US$77.4-million in 2017, and the contract between the two parties runs until 2030.
Pretty strong GFY reply from Aimia, 1 down and 1 to go. At least management knows a bad deal when they see one.

*Edit* stock price is up ¢10 since the rejection on almost half a million shares traded. Overall 3 million shares traded today, up 3.25%
Last edited by kr0zet on Jul 26th, 2018 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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kr0zet wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 1:56 pm
And not to thread spam but Aimia just declined the Aeromexico offer stating that they get almost $80 million in dividend payments yearly till 2030

Pretty strong GFY reply from Aimia, 1 down and 1 to go. At least management knows a bad deal when they see one.
That is significant. AIM sees an opportunistic move and called it out.

As for the AC offer, well AC is the only company that can use the value of aeropeso. ae also knows that, and there is little likelihood of a competing offer.

The redemption rate has not changed much, but the seat availability had also gone done a lot in the last year. So the redemption rate not going up a lot, doesn't mean there wasn't higher attempt to redeem. We have tried to redeem and did find the availability lacking and frustrating. That may turn into an outcry in late 2019 or early 2020. The new AIM board and the plan for ae 2.0, was significant, and may have caught AC by surprise. AC now feels a bid to get the ae infrustructure and database, can be of good value.

Very interesting. If AIM asks for an extension on Aug. 2, then release good financials on Aug. 3, it gives them a stronger hand to ask for more. So there may still be day trading opportunities in the next few days.
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Cavegirl wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 2:11 pm
As for the AC offer, well AC is the only company that can use the value of aeropeso. ae also knows that, and there is little likelihood of a competing offer.
This is untrue. Aeroplan 2.0 has shown that there can be a viable alternative to this. As Aimia has the data to know which routes are the most popular can you imagine the disruptive waves caused by a daily direct Toronto to UK or France route charterd by an Aeroplan plane? Or a Montreal to US major airline hub city daily flight where you could use points to fly and then transfer to a partner airline with points and no scamcharges like AC puts on points flights? Aimia doesn't have to do this, they just have to threaten to do this...
Cavegirl wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 2:11 pm
The redemption rate has not changed much, but the seat availability had also gone done a lot in the last year. So the redemption rate not going up a lot, doesn't mean there wasn't higher attempt to redeem. We have tried to redeem and did find the availability lacking and frustrating. That may turn into an outcry in late 2019 or early 2020.
**Edited to remove inaccurate information. **
Cavegirl wrote:
Jul 26th, 2018 2:11 pm
The new AIM board and the plan for ae 2.0, was significant, and may have caught AC by surprise. AC now feels a bid to get the ae infrustructure and database, can be of good value.
You are right, I believe they were not ready for this and thought an in-house rewards program would not be that hard. I believe that they hired for the new program, started work and realized quickly it was an uphill battle. I believe they talked with potential partners; especially when they were seeking credit card backers and CIBC in particular is having a TOUGH go with thier in house rewards program. I believe they went back to talk with the old board of Aimia and we're working out a deal with them and got blindsided by the new board and Aeroplan 2.0 so they made a very public offer with a tiny window of acceptance. But this is all speculation. :)
Last edited by kr0zet on Aug 6th, 2018 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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