I only do earnings play on AMZN from time to time, so I'm not either short or long.
Amazon And The 'Profitless Business Model' Fallacy
Oct 28th, 2013 6:57 am
Oct 28th, 2013 10:29 am
Oct 28th, 2013 10:51 am
Oct 28th, 2013 8:40 pm
Oct 28th, 2013 9:13 pm
How would we even value it at $20? They have no earnings. They are a very mature business. They are probably closer to their revenue peak than the 'market' believes.
Yup. They've bamboozled non-technical-minded minded people into thinking that they have magic proprietary technology. But when you get right down to it, there's nothing unique about any Amazon product. They've invented nothing. They can't even seem to use their large scale and clout to extract higher than average margins. Amazon is more properly referred to as a cult, not a business.A company based on a promise in the past 10 years. Their business model is to beat revenues regardless of a loss.
This company is all hype, but people buy it.
Oct 28th, 2013 10:15 pm
Oct 28th, 2013 10:43 pm
Assets that can't be converted to cash and earnings over the long run aren't worth anything though.
Oct 29th, 2013 7:29 am
Oct 29th, 2013 2:12 pm
Then how does a company that doesn't have earnings and has little prospect of ever having earnings, get valued? Propose a model! Because, so far, all I see is $0.
Oct 29th, 2013 2:18 pm
As they say, Price is Truth...so Amazon is worth exactly what's it worth today. If you think it isn't, short it or ignore it.
Oct 29th, 2013 2:19 pm
No, price isn't truth. We know that markets routinely misprice assets. Remember the tulip bubble?
Oct 29th, 2013 3:19 pm
Oct 29th, 2013 3:19 pm
No, I wasn't around in the 1800's...if Amazon is selling for $330, then that's exactly what it's worth today. If you think Amazon is worth $20, but no one will sell it to you for $20, then it isn't worth $20. It's just like any other product/company. If you say a Playstation 4 is worth $600, the market will quickly tell you what it's worth when you go to sell it. Or since you think housing is so overpriced, why not try offering people 20% of what they're asking for their house and see how many offers get accepted. If people are willing to pay $380,000 for the average house in Canada, that's what it's worth.
Oct 29th, 2013 3:21 pm
Oct 29th, 2013 3:40 pm
Sure, that's a pretty accurate 'thought'. Go look at their financials. Earnings have always been "around the corner". Except that they've never really managed to turn the corner. Its excuse after excuse after excuse. And for some reason, the 'market' buys it.