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Penalty Box
Apr 16, 2012
3565 posts
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Greely
Mark77 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 10:57 am
Why do you keep asking nonsensical questions?
Why do I keep asking nonsensical question? Because you keep making the same 2 talking points about Amazon?
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Feb 15, 2008
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techcrium wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 10:59 am
because youve been uttering the same talking points about amzn for the last 2 years? All your points are exactly the same? PE too high! No earnings!
Yeah, because they don't go out of style.
You aren't even introducing new arguments. So clearly something is wrong. Why are you repeating yourself with the same talking points?
I wonder why you guys aren't coming up with anything new other than "the market says its 'worth' $400 so it must be". Meanwhile, year after year, Amazon still can't generate earnings.
What do you hope to achieve by repeating the exact same talking points year over year about the same company?
A contribution to the discussion, and hopefully bringing attention to the extreme risk implied by such. Also, the excess valuation in Amazon means that there is undervaluation likely in other firms.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Penalty Box
Apr 16, 2012
3565 posts
683 upvotes
Greely
Mark77 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 11:06 am
Yeah, because they don't go out of style.

I wonder why you guys aren't coming up with anything new other than "the market says its 'worth' $400 so it must be". Meanwhile, year after year, Amazon still can't generate earnings.

A contribution to the discussion, and hopefully bringing attention to the extreme risk implied by such. Also, the excess valuation in Amazon means that there is undervaluation likely in other firms.

How does one contribute to the discussion by bringing up the same talking points year after year?
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Mar 10, 2010
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techcrium wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 11:07 am
How does one contribute to the discussion by bringing up the same talking points year after year?
You'll never beat Mark in an argument...he's got more time to post than anyone since he doesn't work and even if you do prove his points wrong, he'll just ignore your post until it's a few pages back, then come back with the same nonsense. It's really like smashing your head into a wall.
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Dec 12, 2012
321 posts
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Winnipeg
Mark77 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 10:50 am
As I told you, it can be for individuals, but not for shareholders as a group.



I don't claim to bring the only answer. But even you ignore me totally, you can't ignore the lack of earnings for 20 years. The stock market is not an entity upon itself that creates wealth, its ultimately the companies that are listed and traded upon it that create the wealth. And when there is no value creation, but just shares trading for higher and higher prices, historically that has led to only one outcome.


Are you kidding me? If I can make money I will in this scenario, buy low sell high. What should I care about other shareholders if they want the stock?

In my scenario the lack of earnings is irrelevant. Even you said a couple posts back that the stock could go higher. That means money can still be made. It alos means that money can be made selling stock now at a higher price then was purchased for. Why is this so difficult for you to understand or admit? Will the price of Amazon go lower? Probably but will it be in a week, a month or a year? Until that happens money can be made.

It's like saying it will rain every day for a few weeks but it doesn't. When it finally rains you go "see, I told you it would rain". Yet for the last few weeks I've been enjoying the sun while you've been in your house worry about the rain coming.
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Vitalogy80 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 11:53 am
You'll never beat Mark in an argument...he's got more time to post than anyone since he doesn't work and even if you do prove his points wrong, he'll just ignore your post until it's a few pages back, then come back with the same nonsense. It's really like smashing your head into a wall.
I don't know why you guys keep arguging... I gave up and started ignoring him a long time ago. Frankly, I don't care what others think of this or that stock, my results speak for themselves. In the end that is what counts not random ramblings - it is easy to spout opinions on AMZN or any stock when you don't want to put any skin in the game. I find it hard to believe that anyone here is shorting AMZN. If they are, then lets hear about your positions.
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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Feb 15, 2008
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brunes wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 5:51 pm
I don't know why you guys keep arguging... I gave up and started ignoring him a long time ago. Frankly, I don't care what others think of this or that stock, my results speak for themselves. In the end that is what counts not random ramblings - it is easy to spout opinions on AMZN or any stock when you don't want to put any skin in the game. I find it hard to believe that anyone here is shorting AMZN. If they are, then lets hear about your positions.
You don't need to be short something to believe that its not valuable, or that its going down. I don't have a very high opinion of the US dollar either (which is effectively what you end up buying, when you short-sell a stock such as AMZN). As indicated earlier to techcrium, I am technically very slightly long Amazon.

If you've followed the argument made by myself, Anonymouse, and others, the whole problem is that they don't have earnings. The Amazon bulls need to explain where the earnings are going to appear from, or, alternatively, explain why there haven't been any meaningful earnings in the past.

If its some magic innovation that's sitting in Amazon's "skunkworks", that's an acceptable argument. If its some ability to dramatically increase margins, sure, that can be an argument. But just arguing that Amazon stock will go up because it has gone up in the past and has never meaningfully gone down, isn't really an argument that could be accepted with any validity. Nor are baseless personal attacks with no nexus/relevance to the thread.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Mar 10, 2010
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Mark77 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 6:23 pm
You don't need to be short something to believe that its not valuable, or that its going down. I don't have a very high opinion of the US dollar either (which is effectively what you end up buying, when you short-sell a stock such as AMZN). As indicated earlier to techcrium, I am technically very slightly long Amazon.

If you've followed the argument made by myself, Anonymouse, and others, the whole problem is that they don't have earnings. The Amazon bulls need to explain where the earnings are going to appear from, or, alternatively, explain why there haven't been any meaningful earnings in the past.

If its some magic innovation that's sitting in Amazon's "skunkworks", that's an acceptable argument. If its some ability to dramatically increase margins, sure, that can be an argument. But just arguing that Amazon stock will go up because it has gone up in the past and has never meaningfully gone down, isn't really an argument that could be accepted with any validity. Nor are baseless personal attacks with no nexus/relevance to the thread.
I give up...your trollishness is too much. He wasn't even responding to you, yet you go and pick an argument with him.

Let's just admit you have no clue why Amazon goes up and leave it at that. You have no position, outside of a small long through index funds, so how about you move on because you obviously don't understand why the stock is priced where it is. At least if you're so confident that its not worth much, short it...otherwise no one here cares about your opinion on Amazon, or if they did they could read your last 3 years of posts on it since it hasn't changed, even as Amazon has continued to rise.
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Vitalogy80 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 10:28 pm
I give up...your trollishness is too much. He wasn't even responding to you, yet you go and pick an argument with him.
He was obviously taking a shot at me.
Let's just admit you have no clue why Amazon goes up and leave it at that.
I told you why, its an irrational bubble. The pattern of no earnings is fairly consistent over the past 20 years. They are a large-cap company, >$100B market cap, up with the big boys. There are few barriers to entry in any of their businesses, where competition is intense and Amazon possesses no significant proprietary niche nor leadership position. There's the spectre of ongoing State income tax crackdowns. And the logistic partners of Amazon over the long term need their piece of the pie as well and will not build additional capacity simply to have Amazon leverage it.
You have no position, outside of a small long through index funds, so how about you move on because you obviously don't understand why the stock is priced where it is. At least if you're so confident that its not worth much, short it...otherwise no one here cares about your opinion on Amazon, or if they did they could read your last 3 years of posts on it since it hasn't changed, even as Amazon has continued to rise.
Obviously you continue to say I'm so wrong, so obviously you are concerned enough to care. And what's your position? Quadruple leveraged into it in your margin account? Out of the money calls? Single Stock Futures against it? I don't know when the market will return to rationality with a lot of these tech names that generally create no value in excess of their inputs. If interest rates remain at 0%, could be for a considerable length of time until the market finally pukes on such.

I don't expect you to agree with me. In fact, I'd prefer if someone disagreed, as it gives credence to developing a more thorough argument (ie: on the topic of shareholder value, I actually looked up the amount of dilution that Amazon's shareholders suffered in one year alone, exceeding the firm's entire retained earnings!). But who are you to dictate who is or isn't entitled to post on RFD. We should, rightfully, leave that to this website's owners.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Dec 11, 2005
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Mark77 wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 6:23 pm
You don't need to be short something to believe that its not valuable, or that its going down
You don't have to, but it at least means you are putting your money where your mouth is. If you think AMZN is so incredibly overvalued then it would only make sense to short it unless you have no confidence in your analysis.
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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May 17, 2013
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Im reading this discussion and all. You guys know what this means for AMZN shares right?
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Mark77 wrote:
Feb 11th, 2014 1:59 am
But who are you to dictate who is or isn't entitled to post on RFD. We should, rightfully, leave that to this website's owners.
Personally I believe people who had previous accounts banned on RFD shouldn't be allowed to post and since duplicate accounts are also against the rules, no I don't think you should be able to post.
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Jun 27, 2007
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brunes wrote:
Feb 10th, 2014 5:51 pm
I don't know why you guys keep arguging... I gave up and started ignoring him a long time ago. Frankly, I don't care what others think of this or that stock, my results speak for themselves. In the end that is what counts not random ramblings - it is easy to spout opinions on AMZN or any stock when you don't want to put any skin in the game. I find it hard to believe that anyone here is shorting AMZN. If they are, then lets hear about your positions.
Likewise, I don't care what you believe in, I was short from 401 and covered at 35x. Current levels don't invite me to short, but rest assured, I will re-short when time is right. AMZN is overvalued, if you don't think so - that's fine with me.
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dlhunter wrote:
Feb 11th, 2014 9:54 am
Likewise, I don't care what you believe in, I was short from 401 and covered at 35x. Current levels don't invite me to short, but rest assured, I will re-short when time is right. AMZN is overvalued, if you don't think so - that's fine with me.
If you think it is overvalued then why are you waiting.
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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brunes wrote:
Feb 11th, 2014 10:26 am
If you think it is overvalued then why are you waiting.
Because one has to start right in order to be successful. Because AMZN is not near resistance yet. Because only green beginners are jumping into water and buying dips when the tide clearly changed. Fearless bulls in this market don't make me careless fool.

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