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Deal Addict
Aug 19, 2016
1504 posts
549 upvotes
treva84, don't you recall Bill Gates and Warren Buffett said that they don't hire people from business schools to manage investments?
This person is not only from a business school, he teach kids the wrong stuff.

Around May 2016, he appeared on CNBC telling people that Amazon was worth $325. Why did he value Amazon at $1,000+ now? It's been less than 2 years.


I am a big Warren Buffett fan, and I know valuation is key. And I have stayed away from Amazon for so many years, and regret doing that. I didn't have an open mind back then.
I should have bought Amazon when I became a Prime member and it was selling at less than $200 at that time. But I was sucking my thumb until it hit $700+. Then I finally realize I was wrong.
I guess people need to take some accounting courses to see the real picture.

If you must value a company using GAAP (people like PE ratio), you need to find a company that doesn't have any marketable securities, lease obligations, never acquired or merge with another company before.
Member
Feb 5, 2017
267 posts
164 upvotes
amazon is a fantastic company and I buy most of my stuff there.. thousands of orders in the last decade.
yes amazon will continue to grow and there is more money to be made but I would prefer to find and bid on the company who is going to challenge amazon for market supremacy.. that's where the real money is.
I do not believe in FB or Apple as a long term investment but that's just me.
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
2178 posts
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Edmonton, AB
CollegeGraduate wrote:
Apr 26th, 2018 11:11 pm
treva84, don't you recall Bill Gates and Warren Buffett said that they don't hire people from business schools to manage investments?
This person is not only from a business school, he teach kids the wrong stuff.

Around May 2016, he appeared on CNBC telling people that Amazon was worth $325. Why did he value Amazon at $1,000+ now? It's been less than 2 years.


I am a big Warren Buffett fan, and I know valuation is key. And I have stayed away from Amazon for so many years, and regret doing that. I didn't have an open mind back then.
I should have bought Amazon when I became a Prime member and it was selling at less than $200 at that time. But I was sucking my thumb until it hit $700+. Then I finally realize I was wrong.
I guess people need to take some accounting courses to see the real picture.

If you must value a company using GAAP (people like PE ratio), you need to find a company that doesn't have any marketable securities, lease obligations, never acquired or merge with another company before.
I'm just offering a variant perception - you can do with it what you wish :)
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Oct 9, 2008
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treva84 wrote:
Apr 27th, 2018 7:50 am
I'm just offering a variant perception - you can do with it what you wish :)
3.8 percent operating profit margin on more than $51 billion in sales to fund and lease AWS @ operating profit margin of 26%. Competitors growth in this same field is actually outperforming Amazon's.. On it's way to become possibly a trillion dollar company in possibly a year though. What is Bozo's endgame? I have no clue personally.

Regulatory risks are what will kill this story, until then there's no sense in going against the grain imho. US gross federal debt to GDP is modeled to hit 100% by CBO by 2028. Ecommerce is easy money for the govt.imho.
Sr. Member
Feb 26, 2017
601 posts
245 upvotes
Its pretty crazy, I bought it 10 months ago and its gone up 64%. I don't have that many shares but the plan is to just hold it long term. I'd be retired before 40 if all my stock picks went this way :).
Deal Addict
Aug 19, 2016
1504 posts
549 upvotes
Every successful company faces regulatory issues including Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's.
When a company gets too successful, people will like to challenge it.

Jeff is well aware of these issues, and I don't see anything on the horizon that could get them into regulatory issues long term. Or that these things will cause them to fold.

The reason for a company to own many businesses is those synergies. If you must break up Amazon, then you should consider breaking up GE and Berkshire. Though, Warren Buffett never asked the managers at various businesses to synergize (not a word, but you know what it means), but they do it anyways.

As for predatory pricing. This case only stands if Amazon raise the prices after they killed off their competitors. However, Amazon continues to keep their pricing low long after their competitors died.

Another thing is that they forced their suppliers to lower the prices same thing Walmart did for years.

Could someone direct me to an issue that you believe is really an issue?
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
2178 posts
870 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
CollegeGraduate wrote:
Apr 27th, 2018 9:50 am
Every successful company faces regulatory issues including Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's.
When a company gets too successful, people will like to challenge it.

Jeff is well aware of these issues, and I don't see anything on the horizon that could get them into regulatory issues long term. Or that these things will cause them to fold.

The reason for a company to own many businesses is those synergies. If you must break up Amazon, then you should consider breaking up GE and Berkshire. Though, Warren Buffett never asked the managers at various businesses to synergize (not a word, but you know what it means), but they do it anyways.

As for predatory pricing. This case only stands if Amazon raise the prices after they killed off their competitors. However, Amazon continues to keep their pricing low long after their competitors died.

Another thing is that they forced their suppliers to lower the prices same thing Walmart did for years.

Could someone direct me to an issue that you believe is really an issue?
I think Amazon is a great company. I think Bezos is a great manager.

I think the biggest issue is share price - lofty expectations and rosy optimism are baked in. Now Amazon to date has done a great job of continuing to grow and meet those expectations, but can it go on for ever?

I'm not saying it's going to stop anytime soon but in general history has shown when a price is driven up due to high expectations it generally doesn't end well for the investor. Perhaps Amazon is the exception but this would be an issue I would consider.
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Aug 19, 2016
1504 posts
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treva84 wrote:
Apr 27th, 2018 10:07 am
I think Amazon is a great company. I think Bezos is a great manager.

I think the biggest issue is share price - lofty expectations and rosy optimism are baked in. Now Amazon to date has done a great job of continuing to grow and meet those expectations, but can it go on for ever?

I'm not saying it's going to stop anytime soon but in general history has shown when a price is driven up due to high expectations it generally doesn't end well for the investor. Perhaps Amazon is the exception but this would be an issue I would consider.
My expectation for Amazon is high (I admit), but the chance of them succeeding is higher than other companies that focuses on short term profits.
I was serious when I asked about issues that could possibly take Amazon down because I care since 100% of my net worth is in it.

Jeff takes $81k in Salary, and the company pays $1.6 million for the safety of him and his family. He takes no stock options, no bonuses. I haven't seem that since Berkshire, Google, Microsoft (when Bill Gates was in charge).
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Apr 21, 2004
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Anything besides Amazon, Facebook (well not really a biz but an ad magnet), and Apple that are built to scale?
Member
Feb 5, 2017
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since all your money is on amazon, my guess is that you have to declare it 'as more than 100K of foreign money' and fill the appropriate tax form. Do you also have to pay any tax south of our border ?
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Apr 23, 2009
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CollegeGraduate wrote:
Apr 27th, 2018 10:12 am
My expectation for Amazon is high (I admit), but the chance of them succeeding is higher than other companies that focuses on short term profits.
I was serious when I asked about issues that could possibly take Amazon down because I care since 100% of my net worth is in it.

Jeff takes $81k in Salary, and the company pays $1.6 million for the safety of him and his family. He takes no stock options, no bonuses. I haven't seem that since Berkshire, Google, Microsoft (when Bill Gates was in charge).
Why is this relevant?
Does Jeff own the stocks in Amazon? If yes, why is so noble of him to not take salary? His personal wealth is tied with Amazon. He is not doing this for any altruistic reasons.
Deal Addict
Aug 19, 2016
1504 posts
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ruchir wrote:
Apr 27th, 2018 4:02 pm
Why is this relevant?
Does Jeff own the stocks in Amazon? If yes, why is so noble of him to not take salary? His personal wealth is tied with Amazon. He is not doing this for any altruistic reasons.
You are right. That is the same things they said in their proxy.

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