Investing

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 20th, 2024 11:54 pm
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Amazon to Hold Second Prime Day in October to Boost Holiday Sales
Sept. 26, 2022 6:17 am ET
https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon ... 1664187441

Amazon.com ... will hold a second Prime Day next month, the first time the online retailer has had two of the sales events in one year.

The Prime Early Access Sale will take place Oct. 11-12 in 15 countries to give shoppers a jump on Christmas. It will offer deals on holiday items and feature a new Top 100 list as well as gift-buying guides
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Jr. Member
Aug 2, 2015
182 posts
369 upvotes
Fake news.

In the real news department, as the stock keeps sliding, it starts to look more and more attractive to me.

AMZN is really an amazing business. Amazing on the both sides of the scale - it has an amazingly huge amazingly low profit margin e-commerce business on one side, while on the other side it has a tuely amazing AWS business with a fantastic profit margin and still nicely growing. I think it is already fair to call Amazon a Cloud Computing business with an e-commerce add-on, and not vise-versa. To highlight how amazing AWS is relative to (almost) everything else Amazon has - AWS is likely to contribute about 85% of the total operating profit for Amazon this year, while AWS revenue is still likely only about 16% of the total Amazon revenue. Then there is the advertizing business, that is also high profit margin and growing...

Unfortunately I still don't know how to value this company, but if Amazon was ever to break out AWS as a separate company, it would likely have a legitimate P/E of 75 (as opposed to P/E of 75 of Amazon as a whole, which I cannot reconcile at all)
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Quarterly Sales $149.2B > Exp $145.45B
Act Q4 EPS $0.03 < Exp $0.17. Biggie.

Last edited by MrMom on Feb 2nd, 2023 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
2725 posts
2535 upvotes
AMZN losing margins

revenue up from Christmas/holiday shopping.

soon AMZN is going to lose money in a high-rate environment.

SELL.
NOT A WOMAN. JUST GOT A WEIRD NAME. I AM A MAN. THANKS.
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
10332 posts
6699 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
They're lowering cloud growth expectations.

Think that will payoff later this year in terms of stock appreciation.
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
Deal Expert
Oct 7, 2010
15536 posts
5790 upvotes
georvu wrote: They're lowering cloud growth expectations.

Think that will payoff later this year in terms of stock appreciation.
Time to load up. Regret not loading up a month ago :(
Sr. Member
Jun 3, 2012
645 posts
260 upvotes
Scarborough
@rodbarc what do you make of yesterday's ER and the market's negative response?
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 14, 2010
7113 posts
9300 upvotes
airmax95 wrote: @rodbarc what do you make of yesterday's ER and the market's negative response?
I think the market over-reacted on AWS guidance and ignored that most of Amazon profitability / high margin business had good results considering that Q1 is typically their worst quarter. First-party and Third-party sellers are key to Amazon business, almost 60% of revenue this quarters were on both sellers, which keeps growing. Advertisement, which has high margin, continues to grow. Operating and free cash flow growing / improving. FAST has a good catch-all picture, and a lot of the overvaluation since the pandemic has now being caught up to fair price, considering operating cash flow which has always been a good metric to follow valuation. I would say AMZN is fairly priced now. It might drop further when the market corrects further, but price now is better aligned to fair valuation considering their estimated growth.


Rod
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Sr. Member
Jun 3, 2012
645 posts
260 upvotes
Scarborough
rodbarc wrote: I think the market over-reacted on AWS guidance and ignored that most of Amazon profitability / high margin business had good results considering that Q1 is typically their worst quarter. First-party and Third-party sellers are key to Amazon business, almost 60% of revenue this quarters were on both sellers, which keeps growing. Advertisement, which has high margin, continues to grow. Operating and free cash flow growing / improving. FAST has a good catch-all picture, and a lot of the overvaluation since the pandemic has now being caught up to fair price, considering operating cash flow which has always been a good metric to follow valuation. I would say AMZN is fairly priced now. It might drop further when the market corrects further, but price now is better aligned to fair valuation considering their estimated growth.


Rod
What is their estimated growth? And are we looking at much slower stock price growth moving forward? (Acknowledging the previous growth rate was never going to be sustainable)? Just trying to make sense why the stock has been fairly lousy the past 18 months.
Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5885 posts
7465 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
airmax95 wrote: What is their estimated growth? And are we looking at much slower stock price growth moving forward? (Acknowledging the previous growth rate was never going to be sustainable)? Just trying to make sense why the stock has been fairly lousy the past 18 months.
Interest rates.
Buy right, hold tight. Keep calm and go long.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Jeff Bezos Unloads $2.1 Billion of Shares in Second Amazon Sale
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/jeff-bezos-unloads-2-1-billion-of-shares-in-second-amazon-sale

Jeff Bezos unloaded another 12 million Amazon.com Inc. shares, bringing his total stock sold since last Wednesday to more than $4 billion.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Jul 8, 2013
4498 posts
6936 upvotes
Somewhere in AB
MrMom wrote: Jeff Bezos Unloads $2.1 Billion of Shares in Second Amazon Sale
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/jeff-bezos-unloads-2-1-billion-of-shares-in-second-amazon-sale

Jeff Bezos unloaded another 12 million Amazon.com Inc. shares, bringing his total stock sold since last Wednesday to more than $4 billion.
Do you think he is cashing out to diversify or it's something else?
"You don’t need to sacrifice stability, common sense, and comfort if a 1% bond still lets you achieve your financial goals." M. Housel
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
TuxedoBlack wrote: Do you think he is cashing out to diversify or it's something else?
IDK. He just moved residence to Miami, so maybe his taxes will lower on these sales. just my guess.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
10332 posts
6699 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
MrMom wrote: IDK. He just moved residence to Miami, so maybe his taxes will lower on these sales. just my guess.
He's saving tax on sales by moving to FL.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jeff-bezos- ... -1.2034840

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/jeff-be ... taxes.html
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
MrMom wrote: Changes to the DJIA Index aka The Dow

Amazon.com Set to Join Dow Jones Industrial Average; Uber to Join Dow Jones Transportation Average
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/docum ... eb2024.pdf

NEW YORK, February 20, 2024: S&P Dow Jones Indices will make the following changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, February 26:

• Amazon.com Inc. (NASD:AMZN) will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASD:WBA) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Reflecting the evolving nature of the American economy, this change will increase consumer retail exposure as well as other business areas in the DJIA. The index change was prompted by DJIA constituent Walmart Inc.’s (NYSE:WMT) decision to split its stock 3:1, which will reduce Walmart’s index weight due to the price weighted construction of the index. Walmart will remain in the DJIA.

• Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) will replace JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASD:JBLU) in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This change will help the index gain exposure to the ride sharing industry. The index change was prompted by JetBlue’s low weight in the index of less than one-half of one percentage point caused by its low share price. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price weighted index, and thus very low-priced stocks have an immaterial impact on the index
georvu wrote: Ahhh man... going to have to sell AMZN gradually as being added to Dow not necessarily a good thing.
You better hurray ... between MacKenzie Scott and Jeff Bezos, a lot of AMZN shares are hitting the market.

SEC Form 4: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 475025.xml
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience

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