Are you panic selling or anxious buying?

[Jon Lai]

Just wondering, and your prospects of the near future.

[sears_sucks]

I'm thinking about putting a stop loss in

[Mark77]

What's the panic? I'm not selling any of my Japanese stocks, even though I can.

[Jon Lai]

What's the panic? I'm not selling any of my Japanese stocks, even though I can.

serious?

[Asoul]

I'm not selling either.

[cko64]

What about now? With fear of nuclear meltdown, Nikkei drops another 14% or 20% in two days. I'll be buying Japanese stocks in a week or two when the Nikkei touches the new low of 7500. It is now 8227.

[T3NSION]

DJ Tokyo Metropolitan Govt: Radiation Level 23 Times Normal Amount

[plasmarush]

serious?

I`m totally buying the japanese stocks once it`s down....they`ll rebuild fast...

[thelefteyeguy]

yup went from 100% in stocks to 40% stocks/40% bonds/20% in 2x short etfs yesterday

[xlfe]

i did some selling, perhaps it was through panic not sure.
i think in the long term this commodity will rise however in the short it's too tough to call.

[Jon Lai]

yup went from 100% in stocks to 40% stocks/40% bonds/20% in 2x short etfs yesterday

How much did you lose?


i did some selling, perhaps it was through panic not sure.
i think in the long term this commodity will rise however in the short it's too tough to call.

What's this commodity?

[xlfe]

What's this commodity?

if you must know..
silver

[Shadow Rider]

What's the panic? I'm not selling any of my Japanese stocks, even though I can.

have fun tomorrow.

[thelefteyeguy]

How much did you lose?



What's this commodity?

about 3% in the last 3 weeks or so.

but once the confirmations were in for more selling last week and then the earthquake...I made changes yesterday

i will exit my inverse etfs soon and move that money back into stocks as time comes

[Mark77]

have fun tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Everything's trading tonight. My broker is connected right up to the TSE, I could unload right now.

[Thalo]

Japanese stocks aside, what is the impact on North American and European stocks... other than positive? Less competition in manufacturing and demand from Japan for replacement cars/machinery/etc = good for U.S. and Europe. A future shift from nuclear power to nat gas and coal = good for Canada. General fear and worry pushing up gold prices = good for Canada. Not to mention 127 million savers opening up their wallets to rebuild.

Also, can someone name one single instance in history when a natural disaster had a lasting impact on stock prices?

[kingrukus]

I am on the side lines for now . I knew march would be a crap month, as it historically has been (other than immediately after the 08 disaster). might be a good time to pick up some uranium stocks...but i am sure we are no where close to the bottom with those yet.

[Mark77]

This reminds me a lot of SARS and the TSX slide in 2003. The hysteria ran deep, but sure enough, the problems went away, and Canada emerged to have a good 5 year run of reasonable prosperity.

[brunes]

This reminds me a lot of SARS and the TSX slide in 2003. The hysteria ran deep, but sure enough, the problems went away, and Canada emerged to have a good 5 year run of reasonable prosperity.

^-- this.

People doing panic selling right now are taking a huge risk. If there is *not* any kind of nuclear disaster, then what will happen is essentially 60 billion dollars worth of repair work... the whole market would become red hot.

[Jon Lai]

^-- this.

People doing panic selling right now are taking a huge risk. If there is *not* any kind of nuclear disaster, then what will happen is essentially 60 billion dollars worth of repair work... the whole market would become red hot.

Here's hoping you're right :P

[BobW]

I'm just letting my stop losses trigger and plotting where to go next. Looks like there should be some pretty good bottom fishing in the uranium mining sector...

[Crinkle_cut]

I'm just letting my stop losses trigger and plotting where to go next. Looks like there should be some pretty good bottom fishing in the uranium mining sector...

I think Uranium will drop another 20% after today's 20% drop. Just because pandamonium surrounding nuclear energy, and the negative connotation associated with japan's meltdown and high radiation levels.

Once all the negative press ends, uranium stocks should stabilize. Not sure how long this will take though, as a lot of countries have stopped their plans to build more nuclear plants (meaning excess supply and driving uranium prices down).

Until they resume operations to build nuclear plants, the demand wont be back to where they were (at optimal levels).

[Thalo]

This reminds me a lot of SARS and the TSX slide in 2003. The hysteria ran deep, but sure enough, the problems went away, and Canada emerged to have a good 5 year run of reasonable prosperity.

Year after year the news channels just get better and better at over-hyping. Right now, if the news media is to be believed, pretty much all of Japan was wiped away by tsunamis, earthquakes abound, Mt. Fuji is about to erupt and 4 nuclear reactors are in the process of melting down.

Hey, anyone remember swine flu?

[EugW]

I was thinking of selling at 14000, but didn't. Now it's too late, so I'll just hang on for the ride.

[rfdrfd]

Just sold my REF.UN for 10% gain

Going to sell my HXU, 20% gain is good enough to lock it in. Trend looks down right now for the next few weeks. My HXU was up to 30% before all this negativity came into the market. I guess being greedy is never good. I could have sold it back then for 30% gain. Hindsight....

Also, going to sell my COW too. Small gain there, but looks like agriculture stocks are out of favor now, with all the world events happening.


Lybia, now Saudi Arabia going to have protests, that's gonna be huge. Also, those Nuclear plants in Japan doesn't look good. Too many of them are there that can go into meltdown.

Anyone own FAZ ?? 7% up today :)

[sslaw]

I just sold everthing! I'm scared s**tless.








just bought me some etfs...
*thumbs up*

[sslaw]

I just sold everthing! I'm scared s**tless.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
just bought me some etfs...
*thumbs up*

[rfdrfd]

I just sold everthing! I'm scared s**tless.








just bought me some etfs...
*thumbs up*


Yes, when its panic, BUY (if you have cash)

Kevin OLeary yesterday said this is a SCREAMING buy opportunity for anything related to rebuilding efforts. Metals, wood, construction, etc.

[namhcaeb]

Yes, when its panic, BUY (if you have cash)

Kevin OLeary yesterday said this is a SCREAMING buy opportunity for anything related to rebuilding efforts. Metals, wood, construction, etc.

Kevin O'Leary is a douche that got lucky selling his crappy software in the height of dot com bubble. This guy has no clue. I watched him a lot on BNN with Amanda Lang during 2008 crisis and he was just spewing nonsense. 2 years later he was wrong about everything.

[sslaw]

Kevin O'Leary is a douche that got lucky selling his crappy software in the height of dot com bubble. This guy has no clue. I watched him a lot on BNN with Amanda Lang during 2008 crisis and he was just spewing nonsense. 2 years later he was wrong about everything.

I agree, and I don't follow anything he suggests.

[dgodsell]

Pulled the trigger on 30 contracts of 221 day options on a Canadian Uranium stock.

[Efx]

Just riding out the storm. Wish i had more free cash right about now.

[gwu]

Any insightful advice for a regretful :cry: HXD holder?

[Jon Lai]

UUU pulled back up 5% from this morning's drop. Good news?

[dgodsell]

UUU pulled back up 5% from this morning's drop. Good news?

Very good news for me.

[corrupt123]

UUU pulled back up 5% from this morning's drop. Good news?

Probably a lot of people expecting things to return to normal in the coming weeks/months, so they're buying up while it's low.

Realistically, I don't think this single event will mean the end of uranium demand worldwide... As a result of that, I think there is no reason not to buy.

But I'm no expert :lol:

[dcyeung]

UUU pulled back up 5% from this morning's drop. Good news?

I guess but I'm still down 35%

[canadiantofu]

No.. I am Panic buying instead! Trying to figure out how many more bear rides there are before I need to switch out.

[Jon Lai]

Very good news for me.

Just bought today? What price?


I guess but I'm still down 35%

Haha. I'm down 10% since I bought yesterday. I always act too soon :(
Now, I wouldn't mind a quick dip tomorrow morning, just enough time for me to put in my order, then spike back up immediately :lol:


Probably a lot of people expecting things to return to normal in the coming weeks/months, so they're buying up while it's low.

Realistically, I don't think this single event will mean the end of uranium demand worldwide... As a result of that, I think there is no reason not to buy.

But I'm no expert :lol:

That's my mentality as well, but regardless it's still high risk and I can't predict if the market players have the same mentality as well. I did buy a couple hundred just to test my luck, but, we'll see how things go :P

[Mark77]

Kevin O'Leary is a douche that got lucky selling his crappy software in the height of dot com bubble. This guy has no clue. I watched him a lot on BNN with Amanda Lang during 2008 crisis and he was just spewing nonsense. 2 years later he was wrong about everything.

+1

[Crinkle_cut]

I just got UUU at 3.84

[Jon Lai]

I just got UUU at 3.84


What happened to "it'll drop another 20% tomorrow"? :P

[Crinkle_cut]

What happened to "it'll drop another 20% tomorrow"? :P

I never said it will drop another 20% tommorrow, I said it will drop another 20% over an undisclosed period, hahaha.
But I'm playing the momentum. Hoping for a correction.

But if not, and it goes to $3, I'll hold it. I did the same with Manulife when it dropped from $18 to $14. I bought it at $14, and it continued to slide all the way to $11-12. Then I sold it 6 months later for $17.

I guess I'm just willing to wait out any further declines, etc.

[KevC]

I try not to time the market, too damn stressful. I'll liquidate if I need, but not what I feel about the market.

[xlfe]

last 45 minutes and looks like commods are gearing up to make a move :D

[Jon Lai]

Cameco totally regained all its losses from open and is actually up now from yesterday's close! But UUU is still a good 10% down.

Why's Cameco so much stronger? Yes they're bigger but... I don't see any reason why Cameco pulled up sharp up like in the last half hour.

This makes me want to get in on more UUU while it's cheap, if CCO is any indication that the industry's not going to be demise for the near future.

[namhcaeb]

Another proof stockmarket is a scam. What has changed since this morning besides Bernanke opening his lying mouth?

[Crinkle_cut]

People are selling off UUU now to realize their quick capital gains.

Right now at 3.73. Sigh... lol.

[tighty whities]

Everyone use Crinkle Cut as a contrarian indicator. :razz:

[Anathem]

Another proof stockmarket is a scam. What has changed since this morning besides Bernanke opening his lying mouth?

LOL, you really don't have a single clue do you?

[Crinkle_cut]

Everyone use Crinkle Cut as a contrarian indicator. :razz:

LOL, when I sell UUU at 3.40, then everyone Buy!

[xlfe]

Cameco totally regained all its losses from open and is actually up

incorrect it's actually down.

edit
was..now it's pretty much dead even

[frankyflwrs]

When this situation in Japan settles down a bit...I think the Middle East situation will also settle so long as SA stays "quiet". Oil should continue to decline, and a good buying opportunity for HOU should be on the horizon....maybe the low $7's or high $6's?

But nah....no panic selling.... maybe a little panic buying with HOD this morning....but didn't wanna bother with an emotional roller coaster this week.

[EugW]

Only down 72 points today, and the CAD dollar only down 1 cent.

Better than I was expecting actually.

Anyways, I'm neither buying nor selling. Any extra dough will just go into my HELOC / mortgage.

[canadiantofu]

Cameco totally regained all its losses from open and is actually up now from yesterday's close! But UUU is still a good 10% down.

Why's Cameco so much stronger? Yes they're bigger but... I don't see any reason why Cameco pulled up sharp up like in the last half hour.

This makes me want to get in on more UUU while it's cheap, if CCO is any indication that the industry's not going to be demise for the near future.

IMHO - JBIC is pulling a lot of money off the global equity table.... I think what you are seeing is a position sell off by JBIC.
As per news item below.. the 117 million shares represent approx 1/8 of total UUU's market shares. I don't know if JBIC has any position is in CCO.. but if you were JBIC and you do hold both papers... I think CCO would be the better choice to hold as it is more of a blue chipper compare to UUU. Also, CCO is not a pure Mining play like UUU. Their other business lines creates a buffer for them from the U price crash.

-----------------------------

Toshiba Corporation announced that The Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated, Toshiba Corporation and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the international wing of the Japan Finance Corporation, announced that they have signed a new agreement with Uranium One Inc., (U1) a Canadian-listed producer and marketer of uranium, that will end their investment in U1 while securing long-term uranium purchase rights. With a view to securing stable supply of uranium for civil-use nuclear power plants, the three companies signed a strategic relationship agreement with U1 in February2009, under which they agreed to subscribe to U1's issue of 117 million new common shares for allocation to third parties

[rfdrfd]

Any insightful advice for a regretful :cry: HXD holder?


Compared to the world, Canada is doing the best. So, if I had HXD, I'd take any up opportunity (like today) to get out.

TSX in 2011 will continue to go higher. Just look at the charts, pull back 3yr-5yrs. A child can draw you the trend line. Its up.

[blainehamilton]

Waiting another week until my 2010 bonus and retro pay comes in. This is a spitting image of March 2008. Get ready for a bull market this summer/fall.

[namhcaeb]

LOL, you really don't have a single clue do you?

No and neither do you. At least I am not pretending to be a Warren "Bufette" of internet forums.:)

Another bloodbath tomorrow, though.

[Jon Lai]

When this situation in Japan settles down a bit...I think the Middle East situation will also settle so long as SA stays "quiet". Oil should continue to decline, and a good buying opportunity for HOU should be on the horizon....maybe the low $7's or high $6's?

But nah....no panic selling.... maybe a little panic buying with HOD this morning....but didn't wanna bother with an emotional roller coaster this week.

Still holding onto my 3 week old HOD @$6.48. Hoping it'll reach at least $7 before I sell that off.


IMHO - JBIC is pulling a lot of money off the global equity table.... I think what you are seeing is a position sell off by JBIC.
As per news item below.. the 117 million shares represent approx 1/8 of total UUU's market shares. I don't know if JBIC has any position is in CCO.. but if you were JBIC and you do hold both papers... I think CCO would be the better choice to hold as it is more of a blue chipper compare to UUU. Also, CCO is not a pure Mining play like UUU. Their other business lines creates a buffer for them from the U price crash.

-----------------------------

Toshiba Corporation announced that The Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated, Toshiba Corporation and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the international wing of the Japan Finance Corporation, announced that they have signed a new agreement with Uranium One Inc., (U1) a Canadian-listed producer and marketer of uranium, that will end their investment in U1 while securing long-term uranium purchase rights. With a view to securing stable supply of uranium for civil-use nuclear power plants, the three companies signed a strategic relationship agreement with U1 in February2009, under which they agreed to subscribe to U1's issue of 117 million new common shares for allocation to third parties

This would make sense, if it was actually the case.

The volume of UUU these two days add up to 100M, so if they're really getting rid of all of it, we should see another down day tomorrow. If today's afternoon run up is any indication of investor support on UUU though, hopefully it means a sharp drop tomorrow morning will result in a much faster recovery compared to even this afternoon.

[tng11]

If I had Panic sold, I would have taken a 8% hit. Ended the day up 5% and I didn't make any trades.

Although I was disappointed EWJ was down only 2% and not the 10% I was hoping for. :(

[netriones]

I am anxious about buying too early.

[THINKPADT61]

I sold all my commodity this morning, since i bought them go to down! So make a healthy 12% profit from silver down :) also sold my oil down.

[CorSter]

I am anxious about buying too early.

Same here.... thinking of jumping in tomorrow if the market is down again.

[wasserware]

Instead of speculating which down stock is going up, why don't you ride the wave with solar stocks. Made some healthy returns for the past two days!

[Jon Lai]

Same here.... thinking of jumping in tomorrow if the market is down again.

Nikkei is up 5-6% on open... let's see if this keeps up. We might have missed the gravy train :(


Instead of speculating which down stock is going up, why don't you ride the wave with solar stocks. Made some healthy returns for the past two days!

Which ones? Any on the TSX? I only play CAD :P

[CorSter]

Instead of speculating which down stock is going up, why don't you ride the wave with solar stocks. Made some healthy returns for the past two days!

I don't believe in Alternative Energy. :twisted:


Nikkei is up 5-6% on open... let's see if this keeps up. We might have missed the gravy train

I think we've got another week or so of serious up and down, at the very least.

[Thalo]

If I had Panic sold, I would have taken a 8% hit. Ended the day up 5% and I didn't make any trades.

Although I was disappointed EWJ was down only 2% and not the 10% I was hoping for. :(

'Cause the whole world was buying it, hoping to get it at a steep discount, lol.


Instead of speculating which down stock is going up, why don't you ride the wave with solar stocks. Made some healthy returns for the past two days!

Very risky to buy a company that requires government subsidy to be viable.

[Jon Lai]

I think we've got another week or so of serious up and down, at the very least.

I would agree depending on what you mean by 'serious'. Serious as in Monday and Tuesday, no. Serious as in +/-5%, probably.

[Crinkle_cut]

For uranium stocks.
UEX and MGA are flying high, and UUU is stagnant. And Cameco (CCO) is down, lol. What the heck?!? haha.

[Jon Lai]

For uranium stocks.
UEX and MGA are flying high, and UUU is stagnant. And Cameco (CCO) is down, lol. What the heck?!? haha.

Well CCO fell a lot less than the others in the last two days, I guess...

[Crinkle_cut]

Well CCO fell a lot less than the others in the last two days, I guess...

Yeah I think UEX and MGA fell the most, so maybe they are adjusting. UEX fell from 3.20 to 1.20. And MGA from 1 dollar to 0.45 a share.

I just avoided buying them because they only have like 100-250 million in market cap, where as UUU has 2.5 billion in market cap. Just security blanket for me I guess that during the downturn, UUU can survive financially. Not sure if UEX and MGA have the capital to withstand a decrease in uranium prices and temporary decrease in demand.

[Jon Lai]

Picked up some more UUU on the dip. *fingers crossed*

[Wing Nut]

A big LOL to anyone who is under 50 and considering "panic selling." Wow!

[7jai]

wow, uranium seems like a potential money maker lol, i should check that out too!

didn't really panic sell myself - but i did buy some PUT options on Sony at a strike price of 30.00. The 30 contracts I purchased has thus far went up 0.55 per contract! :)

I'm thinking Sony's gonna be in a bit of the rut, especially now that many of their factories are down in Japan, and they aren't exporting any parts to the rest of the world (aka China) to manufacture their goods. There's gnna be a huge dip in sales, and this will definitely affect their next quarters EPS.

[7jai]

I would agree depending on what you mean by 'serious'. Serious as in Monday and Tuesday, no. Serious as in +/-5%, probably.

+1

I'm not too sure how long this will last for, but for sure in the next few days, there will still be swings here and there - until more clarity is shed on the current situation of Japan. Right now it's still a mess, so people are just buying&selling trying to ride the waves.

[Jon Lai]

wow, uranium seems like a potential money maker lol, i should check that out too!

Get in on some UUU. It's cheap :P

[thelefteyeguy]

a very good day for me...:razz:

[kingrukus]

Uranium is a dead sector right now, and will be for some time. My bet is that spot price will continue to retreat... you will get some dead cat bounces, but overall the trend is down for the next while. Long term though, they are cheap - so if your outlook is beyond a year, then UUU, DML, CCO, etc are dirt cheap. I hope I can grab some CCO in the low 20's before all of this is over, and UUU in the low 2s. We will see though.

[thelefteyeguy]

cco looks good...not sure i want to cut my hands tho...

[thelefteyeguy]

Uranium is a dead sector right now, and will be for some time. My bet is that spot price will continue to retreat... you will get some dead cat bounces, but overall the trend is down for the next while. Long term though, they are cheap - so if your outlook is beyond a year, then UUU, DML, CCO, etc are dirt cheap. I hope I can grab some CCO in the low 20's before all of this is over, and UUU in the low 2s. We will see though.

hitting low 20s is really bad techically...

[3n1gma]

Uranium is a dead sector right now, and will be for some time. My bet is that spot price will continue to retreat... you will get some dead cat bounces, but overall the trend is down for the next while. Long term though, they are cheap - so if your outlook is beyond a year, then UUU, DML, CCO, etc are dirt cheap. I hope I can grab some CCO in the low 20's before all of this is over, and UUU in the low 2s. We will see though.

UUU hit low 2s?! that's like.. another 30% drop at least :confused: would it go down THAT much? lol

[Jon Lai]

hitting low 20s is really bad techically...

+1

You might be dreaming if you're thinking it'll hit the low 20's. CCO is pretty diversified with its assets and I can't see it going any lower than 25-26 which, even then, is pretty bad. It doesn't look like, to me, that CCO is headed much lower than what it is currently, and will most likely be staying near this price for the next little while, with some moderate fluctuations.

UUU at low 2's is also pretty unrealistic. That's 60%+ decline from before the earthquake. 60% of the world's reactors aren't going to disappear. Even as it is right now, all the uranium miners are pretty oversold considering their assets. Everyone's just selling due to uncertainty.

[namhcaeb]

+1

You might be dreaming if you're thinking it'll hit the low 20's.

Get ready for another beating tomorrow amateurs!

MrBeachman

[Jon Lai]

Get ready for another beating tomorrow amateurs!

MrBeachman

...says the guy who thinks the TSX should be at 4K :facepalm:

[namhcaeb]

...says the guy who thinks the TSX should be at 4K :facepalm:

I am consistent.

[cko64]

Get ready for another beating tomorrow amateurs!

MrBeachman

Aren't you Permanently Banned?

[slowtyper]

I just started investing for the first time a few weeks ago. Maxed out my TFSA with eseries, down a little over 5%. I guess no point checking it everyday since I'm going to be holding these for a while, however being a new investor I guess I like to log in and take a look.

I just opened a non registered account so I can put a bit more money in. Not sure what exactly I want to put money into yet though.....right now I'm 1/3 Canadian Equities, 1/3 US Equities, 1/3 Int'l on eseries.

I was thinking of either getting into Japan, or buying more what what I already hold now that everything is cheaper from where I bought into it.

[Mark77]

I was thinking of either getting into Japan, or buying more what what I already hold now that everything is cheaper from where I bought into it.

You're already 1/9th into Japan. Do you need more??

[slowtyper]

You're already 1/9th into Japan. Do you need more??

Not 100% but strongly considering it.

[TripleHelix]

Aren't you Permanently Banned?

Yes he is. And now his second account is too! :P

[Jon Lai]

You're already 1/9th into Japan. Do you need more??

Are you implying no?

[thelefteyeguy]

I am consistent.

glad i was out of shorts yesterday .... huge up this morning...hopefully i get another chance to hedge my long today...i expect another retest on yesterday's lows...

[7jai]

glad i was out of shorts yesterday .... huge up this morning...hopefully i get another chance to hedge my long today...i expect another retest on yesterday's lows...

yeh i didnt' expect the economy to bounce back that much today. killed my PUT options. hopefully it will go back down and this is just all based on raw emotions. *crosses fingers

[Anathem]

yeh i didnt' expect the economy to bounce back that much today. killed my PUT options. hopefully it will go back down and this is just all based on raw emotions. *crosses fingers

Because the huge drop over the past few weeks WASNT based on raw emotions? :rolleyes:

[thelefteyeguy]

Because the huge drop over the past few weeks WASNT based on raw emotions? :rolleyes:

well we've had a not stop rally for 6+ months....all indicators were overbought...a 6-10% corrections is healthy. It allows for ppl that didnt get on the bus to enter ...in the grand scheme of things, you'll be very happy by the end of the year if you are long.

[7jai]

Because the huge drop over the past few weeks WASNT based on raw emotions? :rolleyes:

nah buddie, that's not what i meant! yes, the last few days were based on raw emotions too, but the fact was that japan was actually in serious problems which made sense for the big drops/selloffs to occur. That was expected.

However, stocks going up today doesn't really make sense to me, as the turmoil has not been fixed, and there is still alot of uncertainty in Japan. Companies and manufacturing plants are still shut down (from what I heard on the news), and this will most definitely hit their bottom lines.

In any case, I hope it goes down later on in the day :)

[Jon Lai]

nah buddie, that's not what i meant! yes, the last few days were based on raw emotions too, but the fact was that japan was actually in serious problems which made sense for the big drops/selloffs to occur. That was expected.

However, stocks going up today doesn't really make sense to me, as the turmoil has not been fixed, and there is still alot of uncertainty in Japan. Companies and manufacturing plants are still shut down (from what I heard on the news), and this will most definitely hit their bottom lines.

In any case, I hope it goes down later on in the day :)

Uh, no :P

Things are picking back up because:
1) Value buyers are picking up cheap stuff. Everything is undervalued
2) We don't have very close economic ties (relatively) with Japan
3) Commodities are up

[sslaw]

It's up today because ppl feel it's reached or near the bottom.

[Jon Lai]

UUU up 13% today :P

[Asagiri]

UUU up 13% today :P
Can someone explain to me why it went up so much today? Afaik there hasn't been any good news reported about the disaster in Japan and it's nuclear plants. Is it because a lot of people are buying low and it's causing the price to go up?

[Mark77]

Can someone explain to me why it went up so much today? Afaik there hasn't been any good news reported about the disaster in Japan and it's nuclear plants. Is it because a lot of people are buying low and it's causing the price to go up?

Stocks are volatile, and a lot of people probably shorted that particular firm in anticipation of major selling by other owners. When the selling didn't materialize, they had to purchase back their shares. Classic short squeeze.

Interest rates are 1% or less, and inflation practically non-existent, so practically anything that has any potential can catch a bid quite easily.

[Jon Lai]

Stocks are volatile, and a lot of people probably shorted that particular firm in anticipation of major selling by other owners. When the selling didn't materialize, they had to purchase back their shares. Classic short squeeze.

Interest rates are 1% or less, and inflation practically non-existent, so practically anything that has any potential can catch a bid quite easily.

This ^ is likely, especially when UUU dived double of what CCO did during the week. Yes, CCO has stronger assets, but it still doesn't make much sense. Either way, as with most highly volatile stocks, it's all about what the day traders and high volume brokers do.

[Mark77]

This ^ is likely, especially when UUU dived double of what CCO did during the week. Yes, CCO has stronger assets, but it still doesn't make much sense. Either way, as with most highly volatile stocks, it's all about what the day traders and high volume brokers do.

CCJ is a little harder to slap around because of its size as well.

[KevC]

Which Nuclear Energy ETF should I buy?

[Mark77]

Which Nuclear Energy ETF should I buy?

There's very little that's publicly traded that is just pure nuclear. Most of the firms involved with nuclear are either state-owned companies (Areva, AECL, etc.), are parts of larger conglomerates (GE, Hitachi, Bechtel), or are utilities with vast exposure to plenty of different types of generation and not publicly traded (OPG, TVA, ConEd, TEPCO, etc.).

Cameco is likely the purest play across the industry. They own mining, processing, and a portion of Bruce Power.

[Jon Lai]

There's very little that's publicly traded that is just pure nuclear. Most of the firms involved with nuclear are either state-owned companies (Areva, AECL, etc.), are parts of larger conglomerates (GE, Hitachi, Bechtel), or are utilities with vast exposure to plenty of different types of generation and not publicly traded (OPG, TVA, ConEd, TEPCO, etc.).

Cameco is likely the purest play across the industry. They own mining, processing, and a portion of Bruce Power.

He was looking for ETF's and not stocks :lol:

And Cameco's a blue chip too, another plus. But it means you won't be going for high gains. It seems like most of us here either bought CCO (safer) or UUU (bigger gains).

[KevC]

He was looking for ETF's and not stocks :lol:

And Cameco's a blue chip too, another plus. But it means you won't be going for high gains. It seems like most of us here either bought CCO (safer) or UUU (bigger gains).

Those were the two I was looking at. Should've bought right when they dropped 30-60%. Now they seem to be recovering nicely. I wonder if it's worth going in now.

[Jon Lai]

Those were the two I was looking at. Should've bought right when they dropped 30-60%. Now they seem to be recovering nicely. I wonder if it's worth going in now.

What were those?

[Asoul]

Which Nuclear Energy ETF should I buy?

Can check out NLR.

I was debating buying that, but I bought CCO instead.

[rfdrfd]

Which Nuclear Energy ETF should I buy?

I suggest play something that is more sure. Re-construction of Japan cities. Yes, Nuclear will come back, but not yet.

You still need to BUILD a new nuclear power plant before putting in nuclear fuel, etc.


So, buy stuff like: copper, lead, metals


I bought some HKU (Copper 2x Horizons)

[rfdrfd]

Those were the two I was looking at. Should've bought right when they dropped 30-60%. Now they seem to be recovering nicely. I wonder if it's worth going in now.

As my stock course taught me, don't be a novice trader. Wait for a re-test. Mistakes by novice traders:

1) they buy or sell after the rally up or down
2) they buy into an area of supply (or sell into an area of demand)

[nyxeus]

I am not sure if it worths looking into the tech sector too since Japan makes so much tech related stuff. It was my most profitable week from Apple (and Netflix) since 2010 simply buying puts everyday though I have to admit the pressure is extremely overwhelming and definitely not for anyone uncomfortable with very high risk investing.

[KevC]

What were those?

Was thinking of UUU and CCO. Long-ish time horizon.

[Jon Lai]

Was thinking of UUU and CCO. Long-ish time horizon.

Well, CCO is still over 20% lower than last week and UUU, over 30%, so probably :P

[slowtyper]

just noticed the thread title had changed!

[JustBob]

Was thinking of UUU and CCO. Long-ish time horizon.

Bad idea. The only thing U stocks are good for at this time is a short term run because of the panic selling. And even then, you should have bought last week, although another 10-15% gain is possible. Forget about being long on U stocks, at least for 2011, they will just be "dead money".

[Jon Lai]

Bad idea. The only thing U stocks are good for at this time is a short term run because of the panic selling. And even then, you should have bought last week, although another 10-15% gain is possible. Forget about being long on U stocks, at least for 2011, they will just be "dead money".

Like most materials, U will be high fluctuations throughout 2011 anyways, so you can always day trade them for couple % gains. Materials are never for very long terms anyways.

[suzuka]

demand for uranium is healthy and constantly outstrips supply. 4 reactors going down in Japan will do nothing for the industry as the reactors all over the world will still need uranium. Nuclear power is still clean except during a catastrophe yet it has not curtailed spending towards building more capacity. As the population size will continue to increase, nuclear energy is the only source that will be able to meet consumption requirements. It would be nice if solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, hydro and other green sources are able to curtail nuclear consumption but it won't happen soon enough.

buy UUU.

[xlfe]

demand for uranium is healthy and constantly outstrips supply. 4 reactors going down in Japan will do nothing for the industry as the reactors all over the world will still need uranium. Nuclear power is still clean except during a catastrophe yet it has not curtailed spending towards building more capacity. As the population size will continue to increase, nuclear energy is the only source that will be able to meet consumption requirements. It would be nice if solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, hydro and other green sources are able to curtail nuclear consumption but it won't happen soon enough.

buy UUU.

LOL yes demand is very healthy hence why the spot price is going down.
yes reactors do need uranium.
Nuclear power is still clean except during a catastrophe yet it has not curtailed spending towards building more capacity. makes no sense.
you know ontario generates too much power? wouldn't make sense to say they need to build 10 more nuclear reactors.
either be more specific or get your facts straight.

if you want to invest blindly go for it, but don't mislead others.

[ACC-Major]

Invest for tomorrow, not today. By tomorrow I mean 10 plus years into the future. By today I mean within the next few years.

What is a "sure win", building materials? Please, the price of those companies have already soared. People are in it for the short run. It is not like Japan will require rebuilding every year. Even if you are going in now, you won't make that much.

People talks about solar stuff, but are unwilling to sacrifice to make it happen. The costs for these kinds of technology is huge, especially the R&D. Are you willing to increase your taxes by a huge margin to fund the projects?

Nuclear fission (what we use now) is the only solution, we have no other choices. The fueling for these reactors is mainly Uranium. Its real threat is Nuclear Fusion, not solar. Once scientists are able to make use of fusion, then uranium and oil will become obsolete. This won't happen for the next couple of decades.

I know human nature likes the feeling of short term gains and really hates the feeling of short term losses.

So, I am not anxious buying, I am optimistically buying. To me, there is no bear in the world. The world is a huge bull itself, and the bears will all die in the long run. We will always be moving forward, not backward. If we ditch nuclear power, then we are moving backwards.

Our children and grandchildren will live better than we do. If you are pessimistic about the future, I suggest you take out all your money and spend them right away. Better to enjoy your life while it is still good than waiting for a much miserable life in the future to enjoy.

[Jon Lai]

LOL yes demand is very healthy hence why the spot price is going down.
yes reactors do need uranium.
Nuclear power is still clean except during a catastrophe yet it has not curtailed spending towards building more capacity. makes no sense.
you know ontario generates too much power? wouldn't make sense to say they need to build 10 more nuclear reactors.
either be more specific or get your facts straight.

if you want to invest blindly go for it, but don't mislead others.

Not a fan of uranium? Spot price is down because of fear and uncertainty. Same reason why oil's been fluctuating a lot in the last week.

[Master]

I would not get into uranium for now. There's still more way to go down.

Concentrate on rebuilding. Food, materials, and oil in that order is the way to go for next little while.

[KevC]

Thanks for all the input. Maybe investing in Japan(ese Equity Index) long term is a better idea.

Day trading is a bit hectic for me. I would've gone in at $3.5 if I had some $ lying around. It's at $3.96 right now. Depending on what happens it Japan, it can really either way short term, no?

[JustBob]

Like most materials, U will be high fluctuations throughout 2011 anyways, so you can always day trade them for couple % gains. Materials are never for very long terms anyways.

Well he said "longish time horizon" not day trading. If I were to go "longish" on commodity stocks, U stocks would be at the bottom of the list.

[Jon Lai]

Well he said "longish time horizon" not day trading. If I were to go "longish" on commodity stocks, U stocks would be at the bottom of the list.

Won't disagree with that, but Materials tend to be poor choices for "longish" anyways.

[tighty whities]

Not sure why some are souring on Uranium stocks.

It's crappy what happened in Japan, but the use of nuclear energy isn't going to stop because of it.
You just have to be selective to take advantage... names that are diversified, with real production/cashflow.

I bought two midcaps last week and plan to hold until they at least double.

[Jon Lai]

Not sure why some are souring on Uranium stocks.

It's crappy what happened in Japan, but the use of nuclear energy isn't going to stop because of it.
You just have to be selective to take advantage... names that are diversified, with real production/cashflow.

I bought two midcaps last week and plan to hold until they at least double.

Midcaps as in >$1B? None of the ones I've been looking at >$1B have dropped >50% in the past week, so I don't know how you're going to wait for them to double. I don't think they'll surpass their price before last week anytime soon.

[tighty whities]

Midcaps as in >$1B? None of the ones I've been looking at >$1B have dropped >50% in the past week, so I don't know how you're going to wait for them to double. I don't think they'll surpass their price before last week anytime soon.

look at your valuation numbers, pre and post event.

[Jon Lai]

Up almost 10% this morning. I'm a happy camper :)

Didn't have enough balls to pick up some more UUU in the 5% dip this morning, LOL.

[tng11]

Going to pocket the 22% profit on UUU and CCO and donate it to the victims of the Japan earthquake.

[Crinkle_cut]

And today all I can say is BOOM!!!

BOOYAH!!

UUU, UEX, MGA all on the rise!

Debating whether to diversify though, and make my portfolio not 100% UUU, haha.

[tighty whities]

Up almost 10% this morning. I'm a happy camper :)

Didn't have enough balls to pick up some more UUU in the 5% dip this morning, LOL.

up 13% and 19% on my 2, since I picked them up last week.

:facepalm: I'm not looking for a double within a week or even a few months.

Also I'm not sure how you choose your stocks, I see a lot of thinking and feeling with nothing to support?

[Jon Lai]

Going to pocket the 22% profit on UUU and CCO and donate it to the victims of the Japan earthquake.

Props to you :D

And wow, you really hit the bottom with UUU - that means you bought around $3.50 and it bottomed at $3.43!

[Jon Lai]

up 13% and 19% on my 2, since I picked them up last week.

:facepalm: I'm not looking for a double within a week or even a few months.

Also I'm not sure how you choose your stocks, I see a lot of thinking and feeling with nothing to support?

To be honest, you're right :P

I read news and look at some basic figures, sit down, think about it, then I either tell myself I go for it or I don't. I'm just starting out with only $10K so it's not going to kill me if I make a mistake. I don't go indepth into a company's balance sheet or anything like that, if that's what you're saying.

I picked them up early so I'm only up 10% right now :(

[Crinkle_cut]

To be honest, you're right :P

I read news and look at some basic figures, sit down, think about it, then I either tell myself I go for it or I don't. I'm just starting out with only $10K so it's not going to kill me if I make a mistake. I don't go indepth into a company's balance sheet or anything like that, if that's what you're saying.

I picked them up early so I'm only up 10% right now :(

10% on total purchase? or on your second one? I thought you bought some at 4.30 before?

I just sold all my UUU. Time to look for another investment, lol.

[Thalo]

Remember when the DJIA was below 12,000 and the TSX was threatening to go to 13,000?

[Jon Lai]

10% on total purchase? or on your second one? I thought you bought some at 4.30 before?

I just sold all my UUU. Time to look for another investment, lol.

Well, my average, lol.

It's back down to $4.20, why don't you buy up another rally? ;)

[Crinkle_cut]

Well, my average, lol.

It's back down to $4.20, why don't you buy up another rally? ;)

LOL, I'll watch over lunch what happens.

I should've sold at 4.35 a share, I got greedy. then it started to sink, so sold it at 4.27. Now its 4.20.


I wouldn't mind getting in again at below 4.

[Jon Lai]

LOL, I'll watch over lunch what happens.

I should've sold at 4.35 a share, I got greedy. then it started to sink, so sold it at 4.27. Now its 4.20.


I wouldn't mind getting in again at below 4.

I'm anxious to say it won't happen, but with the fluctuations in uranium, there's a high probability it will :(

My target is $5+ though, so I think I'll hold for now. I don't think I have the balls to trade on the interday high-lows and profit :lol:

[Crinkle_cut]

Ok found my new investments.

My new Uranium plays are Paladin Energy (PDN), and UEX Corp (UEX).

I think they're both really undervalued.

Also decided to play back in on SSP (Sandspring Resources). They announced they just found new gold, and are surging after the Trading Halt was Removed.

[Jon Lai]

Ok found my new investments.

My new Uranium plays are Paladin Energy (PDN), and UEX Corp (UEX).

I think they're both really undervalued.

What did you look at to determine that? Both are still more expensive %-wise than UUU before March 11th.

[Crinkle_cut]

What did you look at to determine that? Both are still more expensive %-wise than UUU before March 11th.

Well I'm looking at their 1 year target's. Combined with some emotional plays.

I think UUU is still safe to get to $5 a share. But I also think PDN will get to $5 a share. Given one costs $4.30 and the other $3.30. I'll buy the one that costs $3.30. Thats $50% Return vs 15% Return on UUU.

UEX is more of an emotional play, as I bought it at $1.25 before, then saw it skyrocket to $2.20 a share. So I dont mind riding that one back to say $1.80. Which will still provide a higher return than UUU's price now to $5 a share.

Looking to make 27% on UEX.

If I dont make my targets above in 3-5 months, then I'll hold it until the end of the year. But who knows, my predictions may be wrong. They've been wrong before, hahaha.

[Jon Lai]

Well I'm looking at their 1 year target's. Combined with some emotional plays.

I think UUU is still safe to get to $5 a share. But I also think PDN will get to $5 a share. Given one costs $4.30 and the other $3.30. I'll buy the one that costs $3.30. Thats $50% Return vs 15% Return on UUU.

UEX is more of an emotional play, as I bought it at $1.25 before, then saw it skyrocket to $2.20 a share. So I dont mind riding that one back to say $1.80. Which will still provide a higher return than UUU's price now to $5 a share.

Looking to make 27% on UEX.

If I dont make my targets above in 3-5 months, then I'll hold it until the end of the year. But who knows, my predictions may be wrong. They've been wrong before, hahaha.

Makes sense. UEX looks much more 'unpredictable' and probably not something I want to get myself into.

Technically if PDN will go back to $5 then UUU should go back to $6 ;) But who knows, we're all just speculating here, can't say who's right or wrong until after the fact.

BTW UUU hit $4.49 day high.

[Crinkle_cut]

Makes sense. UEX looks much more 'unpredictable' and probably not something I want to get myself into.

Technically if PDN will go back to $5 then UUU should go back to $6 ;) But who knows, we're all just speculating here, can't say who's right or wrong until after the fact.

BTW UUU hit $4.49 day high.


I know, when I saw it at 4.45 I was like fawkkkkk hahahaha

Yeah you're right. I think UUU will get to 5.50, not sure it will get back to 6 though by end of year. And I think PDN will get to about 5 by end of year.


UEX, I have no clue where the heck this stock will go. Just the fact I benefitted from it in the past may be my downfall, as this was purely an emotional play from past experience.

[Jon Lai]

I know, when I saw it at 4.45 I was like fawkkkkk hahahaha

Yeah you're right. I think UUU will get to 5.50, not sure it will get back to 6 though by end of year. And I think PDN will get to about 5 by end of year.

Like I said before, I'm not expecting any of the uranium stocks to go back to where they were before 3/11 within the next month or so. UUU going back to $5.50 would be awesome in my books. Same reason why I'm doubtful PDN will get back to $5, but I'm just looking at the graphs here :lol:

The <$1 stocks, such as UEX, are probably going to steer away from my prediction though. Just because they're so cheap and each ticker change is such as big % difference, anything can happen. :lol:

If only I had more money cash... I had two opportunities to buy UUU at $4.20 today but couldn't take them on :( (I'm not a margin person)



UEX, I have no clue where the heck this stock will go. Just the fact I benefitted from it in the past may be my downfall, as this was purely an emotional play from past experience.

Talk about it. That happened to me with HOU :(

[BenK]

SILVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!! Almost there to a new 52-week high!

[Crinkle_cut]

Like I said before, I'm not expecting any of the uranium stocks to go back to where they were before 3/11 within the next month or so. UUU going back to $5.50 would be awesome in my books. Same reason why I'm doubtful PDN will get back to $5, but I'm just looking at the graphs here :lol:

The <$1 stocks, such as UEX, are probably going to steer away from my prediction though. Just because they're so cheap and each ticker change is such as big % difference, anything can happen. :lol:

If only I had more money cash... I had two opportunities to buy UUU at $4.20 today but couldn't take them on :( (I'm not a margin person)



Talk about it. That happened to me with HOU :(

But the interest paid on Margin is Income Tax Dedudctible. On Schedule 3 or 5 (I dont remember, just did my taxes on the weekend) just fill in the amount of interest you paid for borrowing money for investments in the Interest and Carrying Charges tab, and it will be used as an income offset.

[Jon Lai]

SILVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!! Almost there to a new 52-week high!

I guess if I was doing something risky like uranium, I should probably try some silver too. What have you been holding? Companies or leveraged spot price ETFs?


But the interest paid on Margin is Income Tax Dedudctible. On Schedule 3 or 5 (I dont remember, just did my taxes on the weekend) just fill in the amount of interest you paid for borrowing money for investments in the Interest and Carrying Charges tab, and it will be used as an income offset.

I'm not too worried about interest. I'm more worried about covering the money I borrowed :lol: I don't have substantial income so it might mean I have to sell stuff to cover borrowed money in the case it drops.

Just trying to play things safe. But if I did buy at $4.20 this morning on margin I would've been up 6.7% intraday :(

[xlfe]

Not a fan of uranium? Spot price is down because of fear and uncertainty. Same reason why oil's been fluctuating a lot in the last week.

i wouldn't follow something without having some interest on it
glad we have some people who know so much about the uranium spot price.

[BenK]

I guess if I was doing something risky like uranium, I should probably try some silver too. What have you been holding? Companies or leveraged spot price ETFs?

SVR.UN for my CDN$ and SLV for my US$. 100% SILVERRRRRR portfolio (for now). Bought SLV at $27.7 and SVR.UN at $18.xx

[EugW]

I was thinking of selling at 14000, but didn't. Now it's too late, so I'll just hang on for the ride.
Heh. Closed over 14000 again. Maybe time to sell?

Nah, I'll just hang on longer.

[ACC-Major]

Heh. Closed over 14000 again. Maybe time to sell?

Nah, I'll just hang on longer.

The closing number, or the opening, or what not aren't important if you are investing. It would make sense if you are speculating which mostly ended up failing.

[sslaw]

The closing number, or the opening, or what not aren't important if you are investing. It would make sense if you are speculating which mostly ended up failing.

I think this thread is nothing but speculations.

[ACC-Major]

I think this thread is nothing but speculations.

Yeah, bunch of speculators i guess.

[slowtyper]

To be honest, you're right :P

I read news and look at some basic figures, sit down, think about it, then I either tell myself I go for it or I don't. I'm just starting out with only $10K so it's not going to kill me if I make a mistake. I don't go indepth into a company's balance sheet or anything like that, if that's what you're saying.

I picked them up early so I'm only up 10% right now :(

If you are playing with only 10K, aren't trading fees taking out a pretty big bite?

[Jon Lai]

If you are playing with only 10K, aren't trading fees taking out a pretty big bite?

Not if you're with Questrade... (Did you ask me this question before? I recall answering it before :P)

Plus I've done a few referrals so I'll be getting free commission for the next few months or so.

[Jon Lai]

I think this thread is nothing but speculations.


Yeah, bunch of speculators i guess.

Short term is always speculation.

[EugW]

The closing number, or the opening, or what not aren't important if you are investing.
Of course the numbers matter.


It would make sense if you are speculating which mostly ended up failing.
Not really, when you've held on since below 10000.

[tng11]

CCME is resuming trading today... in pre-market the POS is down close to 70%. Even though I only had 100 shares, it's still pretty painful considering I bought at $14.76. :cry:

Live and learn I guess, but people, avoid Chinese microcaps like the plague! Even though the fundamentals may look good, it's not worth the risk.

EDIT: Down close to 90%... ergh. This one's a bitter pill to swallow.

[Jon Lai]

CCME is resuming trading today... in pre-market the POS is down close to 70%. Even though I only had 100 shares, it's still pretty painful considering I bought at $14.76. :cry:

Live and learn I guess, but people, avoid Chinese microcaps like the plague! Even though the fundamentals may look good, it's not worth the risk.

EDIT: Down close to 90%... ergh. This one's a bitter pill to swallow.

Numbers aren't even showing up on Questrade :lol:

[tighty whities]

CCME is resuming trading today... in pre-market the POS is down close to 70%. Even though I only had 100 shares, it's still pretty painful considering I bought at $14.76. :cry:

Live and learn I guess, but people, avoid Chinese microcaps like the plague! Even though the fundamentals may look good, it's not worth the risk.

EDIT: Down close to 90%... ergh. This one's a bitter pill to swallow.

ouch, good luck with this.

[Jon Lai]

Ahh where's the uranium rally today? :(

[7jai]

Ahh where's the uranium rally today? :(

boo down 3.5% :(

[Jon Lai]

boo down 3.5% :(

You mean, YES, a buying op!

Too bad I was out for lunch when it happened. It's back to 4.41 now, could've made a good 2-3% buying it at $4.30

[KevC]

Wow it's volatile. I'm thinking if it goes down to $3.xx I might jump in; but right now I think it's a bit high for my tastes.

Even if it's at $3.9x; when it goes back to $4.5x+; that's a 10-15% return :twisted:

[Jon Lai]

Gahhhhh... why is it down today :(

[coleworld]

Gahhhhh... why is it down today :(

Are you buying or selling???

2 posts ago you we're happy it was down because "its a buying op" ,"could've made a good 2-3% buying it at $4.30"

Buy low sell high.... don't worry about it.

[kingrukus]

Gahhhhh... why is it down today :(

Don't expect it to rocket up 50% in as straight line. There will be a bit of a breather and even a possible retrace downwards (temporarily). Buy more on dips I what I say. Uranium is here to stay for the long term. I just want to know if we should expect to see mid 4s as the new norm for this stock until confidence is renewed.

[Jon Lai]

Don't expect it to rocket up 50% in as straight line. There will be a bit of a breather and even a possible retrace downwards (temporarily). Buy more on dips I what I say. Uranium is here to stay for the long term. I just want to know if we should expect to see mid 4s as the new norm for this stock until confidence is renewed.

I don't.

I'm just nagging because:
1) It hit $4.72 this morning but I was on my way to work
2) I couldn't 'see' it would go down after the whole morning of $4.50
3) I'm bored

I want to buy more, but don't have enough cash.

:lol:

[Jon Lai]

Man, what's wrong with the market lately?

[cokeman]

Man, what's wrong with the market lately?

When you stare at it too long and too often, it'll start doing funny things to spite you. Take a break from it

[tighty whities]

Man, what's wrong with the market lately?

bored again?

[sslaw]

Man, what's wrong with the market lately?

It's starting to develop bi-polar issues.

[Jon Lai]

bored again?

Yea :(

[BenK]

new 52-wk high for SLV, yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. $40/oz here we come!

[Jon Lai]

new 52-wk high for SLV, yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. $40/oz here we come!

SVR.UN doesn't' seem to be tracking this very closely...

[BenK]

SVR.UN doesn't' seem to be tracking this very closely...

Yea, it would seem SVR.UN is not very liquid. volume numbers are really low and discrepancies in ask/bid are almost $0.10 but I am going to hang on for a little longer.

I would recommended CEF.A if you want exposure to precious metals. Holds about 50/50 gold/silver (in $ value).

[Jon Lai]

Yea, it would seem SVR.UN is not very liquid. volume numbers are really low and discrepancies in ask/bid are almost $0.10 but I am going to hang on for a little longer.

I would recommended CEF.A if you want exposure to precious metals. Holds about 50/50 gold/silver (in $ value).

Thanks, definitely looks like a better tracker of the market.

[JustBob]

Five silver stocks up between 4.27% and 10.26%, not to mention a few gold and copper stocks up between 3 and 7%. Good day.

I hope you sold those U stocks. :)

[Jon Lai]

I hope you sold those U stocks. :)

Why?

My target price for UUU is $5

[JustBob]

Why?

My target price for UUU is $5

When? In 2012? :)

U stocks have had their short term run after the panic selling, as of now there are much better plays out there than U stocks.

[Jon Lai]

When? In 2012? :)

U stocks have had their short term run after the panic selling, as of now there are much better plays out there than U stocks.

Well, from what I see, there's still uncertainty about it in Japan, so there's probably a bit more that can be pushed up. If the situation stabilizes, then yea, I would free up the cash for something else.

[addikt]

I bought Apple after the Japan / Libya crisis, I think it's gona go up at least 20% or more.

Usually I pick small cap risky stocks but with so much **** happening, I'm gona go with ones that I feel are at a reasonably good price.

[rfdrfd]

Five silver stocks up between 4.27% and 10.26%, not to mention a few gold and copper stocks up between 3 and 7%. Good day.

I hope you sold those U stocks. :)

My HKU up 4.8% now and SLW up as well.

[rfdrfd]

I bought Apple after the Japan / Libya crisis, I think it's gona go up at least 20% or more.

Usually I pick small cap risky stocks but with so much **** happening, I'm gona go with ones that I feel are at a reasonably good price.


Becareful, some analysts are saying AAPL will go back down to its 200 day(?) moving avg, which is around $300

http://www.google.ca/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=aapl+going+down+to+300&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&fp=b4d532f1698a47b0

[plucky duck]

Long term UUU may be a good play but for now the action has already came and gone. Dead money.
Apple has lost a lot of momentum and I'd stay away from it for the time being.

I am up 50% the day prior, and 33% today on my option picks. We'll see how Ford fares leading up to QE1 report. I don't beleive oil has gone up enough to put a dent on them. Ford has taken quite the beating lately but has hit the $14 wall several times. May still see it going lower to the $13s but I don't see much further near term downside.

[BenK]

My HKU up 4.8% now and SLW up as well.

SILVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, SLV continues to push up the 52-wk high.


Becareful, some analysts are saying AAPL will go back down to its 200 day(?) moving avg, which is around $300

http://www.google.ca/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=aapl+going+down+to+300&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&fp=b4d532f1698a47b0

+1, sold my AAPL at $360. I would doubt a correction down to $300 anytime soon. I see a price target ~$350 after the results of the first month of iPad2 sales.

[addikt]

Becareful, some analysts are saying AAPL will go back down to its 200 day(?) moving avg, which is around $300

http://www.google.ca/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=aapl+going+down+to+300&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&fp=b4d532f1698a47b0

Ya it can go down for the short term and certainly the volatile economy isn't helping much but I'm not too worried. I don't see any real competitor to Apple in the world right now and that includes Google and its army of OEMs.

[addikt]

SILVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, SLV continues to push up the 52-wk high.



+1, sold my AAPL at $360. I would doubt a correction down to $300 anytime soon. I see a price target ~$350 after the results of the first month of iPad2 sales.

Nice.Ya but don't forget they have the real iPad let's call it 2.5 :) coming out soon too. It's gona beat the crap out of anything in the market today, even iPad2 has matched the processing speed and improved graphics performance so much. Also they have lower end iPhones and ones with keyboard planned. I don't see this train stopping anytime soon unless Steve Jobs goes on a leave again.

[Jon Lai]

Long term UUU may be a good play but for now the action has already came and gone. Dead money.
Apple has lost a lot of momentum and I'd stay away from it for the time being.

I am up 50% the day prior, and 33% today on my option picks. We'll see how Ford fares leading up to QE1 report. I don't beleive oil has gone up enough to put a dent on them. Ford has taken quite the beating lately but has hit the $14 wall several times. May still see it going lower to the $13s but I don't see much further near term downside.

You're right. I was eyeing it the whole afternoon and the volume has been brutally low. Finally got rid of my holdings @$4.35 - wished I had the foresight and sold it back when it was $4.70 :(

Now I have money to play with. Gold's coming down and silver ran off its peak, but I don't know if these are good for short term, since I might want to pick up UUU again when it drops a bit more.

[Jon Lai]

UUU back to $4 today... time to get back in? :)

[7jai]

UUU back to $4 today... time to get back in? :)

What happened to the $5 prospect? :( Must've been the RFD effect that made it sink 8% today :lol:

[Jon Lai]

What happened to the $5 prospect? :( Must've been the RFD effect that made it sink 8% today :lol:

I decided that it'd probably roller coaster its way up to $5 so might as well make the most out of my money. Good thing I got out last week :D

I was trying to catch the bottom but failed - picked up UUU again at $3.99. I thought there'd be a psychological barrier at $4 :( Oh well. Let's hope this pans out alright.

[Crinkle_cut]

I decided that it'd probably roller coaster its way up to $5 so might as well make the most out of my money. Good thing I got out last week :D

I was trying to catch the bottom but failed - picked up UUU again at $3.99. I thought there'd be a psychological barrier at $4 :( Oh well. Let's hope this pans out alright.

I picked up some UUU today (3.98), and some RIM (55.80) after the big drop on Friday.

[BenK]

I picked up some UUU today (3.98), and some RIM (55.80) after the big drop on Friday.

I hope you're only in for the short term, or you're going to regret that (imo).

[Jon Lai]

I hope you're only in for the short term, or you're going to regret that (imo).

I'd be weary of buying RIM too. The drop looked very enticing on Friday, and another 2% today, but it was too expensive for me anyways.

Looks like both Crinkle and I paid too much for UUU today though :(

[plucky duck]

Got in on rimm and ford call options at $55.95 and $15.08. Going to hold through the week and see how it does. Bought some yoku may $46 call options last Thursday and sold it for a 40% gain, then it ran up to $51 for a what could have been 230% gain lol I left so much money on the table.

I believe rimm is in a good position with respect to the 7" tablet segment no other manufacturers can compete in ATM, they have the business blackberry following. For a laypersons like myself who has never had a blackberry or take any interest in their offering actually be excited about the playbook, they may have struck a cord with this new product. I am pretty risk adverse, and I see the latest rimm price action as a very good opportunity.

Then again I am usually wrong so short any stocks I come across lol :lol:

[Mark77]

I am pretty risk adverse,

I see the latest rimm price action as a very good opportunity.


Two sentences that don't belong in the same paragraph, nevermind sentence.

[chinaboy1021]

I love how analytical the last few pages have been:

AHhhhh gaaahhhh ooohhh noesss RIMMMM yesssss ahhhhhhhh oh naaah nahh whats my name.

[Guess_11]

Does anyone here even make DCF or NAV models before buying? Or is everyone just speculating giving random price targets?

[xlfe]

Does anyone here even make DCF or NAV models before buying? Or is everyone just speculating giving random price targets?

nope what are those??

it's all about reading the headlines and speculating based on words like... "falls", "drops", "crisis", "soars", "slide"....etc
then panicking and acting on impulse without any logically based characterizations.

[Mark77]

Does anyone here even make DCF or NAV models before buying? Or is everyone just speculating giving random price targets?

I sort of do, but DCF and NAV are heavily based on assumptions. I try not to buy black boxes; I want to see a product, I want to see earnings, and if I don't understand the business, I simply won't buy.

Having said that, most of my money is on indexes. Speculating in individual stocks is for suckers.

[Guess_11]

Definitely, theres assumptions in NAV and DCF. But, you can always have conservative estimates to get a ballpark figure for buy and sell.

[addikt]

Of course before buying I do the financial analysis, go through SEC filings and all the great DCF / NAV stuff and Piotroski / Z scores etc... you'll find out pretty quickly there is no magic formula and you have to make your own judgements on the future prospects of a company. There are supposedly great back tested screens at sites like AAII that help find great stocks ... in practice I've found these to be pretty useless. If someone had the magic formula I don't think they would share it :)

[addikt]

For those of you buying RIMM, I have to say you have balls of steel

[tng11]

Does anyone here even make DCF or NAV models before buying? Or is everyone just speculating giving random price targets?

People here seem to be blindly speculating, just going with their "gut" feeling. I'll admit I do it sometimes, but it's only on a very limited portion of my whole portfolio and thankfully, I'm still ahead. Make one bad trade though, and you can watch all of it go poof, which is why indexing still generates the better returns adjusted for risk in the long-term.

[Jon Lai]

For those of you buying RIMM, I have to say you have balls of steel

What if they're shorting? :lol:


Does anyone here even make DCF or NAV models before buying? Or is everyone just speculating giving random price targets?

TBH those only take you so far. They help more in the long term (30+ years) but not so much for short term (0-5 years). These figures only help your investment if every other person investing in that stock also analyzes that data. If most of the investors in that particular stock invest in gut feeling, since they're the ones that will ultimately control the price of the stock, these figures won't do you any good.

[Jon Lai]

People here seem to be blindly speculating, just going with their "gut" feeling. I'll admit I do it sometimes, but it's only on a very limited portion of my whole portfolio and thankfully, I'm still ahead. Make one bad trade though, and you can watch all of it go poof, which is why indexing still generates the better returns adjusted for risk in the long-term.

Indexes and mutual funds only take you so far though, in terms of returns. It's not so much blindly speculating as it is speculating on something you're not complete sure about. For example, are investing in uranium stocks a blind speculation? Some might say yes, some might disagree. We've had quite a few interest in this sector in the past two weeks here, from the guys who's been posting they've bought and sold. Were they blind speculations? Maybe to an extent. To me though, it was more like logical thinking. Since there's no appropriate alternative to uranium fuels, is there a high probability uranium will just vanish? The likelihood is small. So why are the prices plunging? Because of fear and uncertainty? If so, as Buffett said, fear is the time to buy. I generally like to speculate stocks along these trends of thoughts. Is it speculation? Yes. Is it blindly speculating? We can debate that.

I do limit myself to a small portion of my portfolio for these short term trades, though. The rest of my portfolio are long term holds that I plan to hold for decades, so whatever comes out of them aren't really important in the short run.

[tng11]

Indexes and mutual funds only take you so far though, in terms of returns.

I had specifically mentioned risk-adjusted returns. There's no free lunch in the markets, you want higher returns then you will take on more risk. For every unit of risk you take on, it's been proven over the long-term that the index beats most individual equities. (This was the subject of my research this entire year). Beating the market consistently is incredibly difficult to do, and most active managers underperform the index. Thinking Buffett's strategy is as simple as buying when there is fear is a gross oversimplication at best.

And buying when people are panicking is a flimsy yardstick at best. Long-term fundamentals may have changed, the company may have been overvalued to begin with and now the market is just correcting to adjust for those fundamentals. For instance, with RIM's grim outlook, the valuation naturally had to drop as the high expectations had already been priced in. But hey, since people are panicking it must go up! [/sarcasm]

[chinaboy1021]

Here's a serious question though.

Sure, fundamentally many companies are overvalued because their prospect earnings/growth is part of evaluation of their equity/shares. Yes riding the bubble is a bad idea, even statistically recorded, that rarely do fund managers have a consistent track record. blah blah blah

But isn't the whole financing and investment industry based on the "future"? What I'm confused about from a qualitative/academic (read: does not comply with reality) perspective, isn't EVERYTHING a bubble? It's either ride it or push it. Look at the skewed distribution of capital, cliche: rich get richer, blah blah. Look at academia, what do people have to study these days in order to put the minimal food on the table? "Professional" studies, not arts, no literature, no poli/social science. Whatever, you get my drift. Excuse my casual and fragmented writing.

What I'm trying to say is, the fundamentalists (accountants) can say "Gold is a bubble, AAPL is overpriced, etc."...but in the end, since when was the stock market rational and fundamental? According to fundamentals, Gold has no value unless used for producing something, and AAPL is not worth $322,448,000,000 ($350x921.28 million shares outstanding).

All in all, the stock market is a joke?

[addikt]

Here's a serious question though.

Sure, fundamentally many companies are overvalued because their prospect earnings/growth is part of evaluation of their equity/shares. Yes riding the bubble is a bad idea, even statistically recorded, that rarely do fund managers have a consistent track record. blah blah blah

But isn't the whole financing and investment industry based on the "future"? What I'm confused about from a qualitative/academic (read: does not comply with reality) perspective, isn't EVERYTHING a bubble? It's either ride it or push it. Look at the skewed distribution of capital, cliche: rich get richer, blah blah. Look at academia, what do people have to study these days in order to put the minimal food on the table? "Professional" studies, not arts, no literature, no poli/social science. Whatever, you get my drift. Excuse my casual and fragmented writing.

What I'm trying to say is, the fundamentalists (accountants) can say "Gold is a bubble, AAPL is overpriced, etc."...but in the end, since when was the stock market rational and fundamental? According to fundamentals, Gold has no value unless used for producing something, and AAPL is not worth $322,448,000,000 ($350x921.28 million shares outstanding).

All in all, the stock market is a joke?


I would say the stock market is more like a monster on a variety of drugs that the rich can easily manipulate. And you can't avoid its side effects even if you don't invest in it.

And ya the bubble talk is funny, seems everyone wants to be the next big thing calling out some bubble before anyone else does... and then go on TV shows babbling nonsense.

But in all seriousness, the weakness in US $ is making me VERY nervous...

[xlfe]

Here's a serious question though.

Sure, fundamentally many companies are overvalued because their prospect earnings/growth is part of evaluation of their equity/shares. Yes riding the bubble is a bad idea, even statistically recorded, that rarely do fund managers have a consistent track record. blah blah blah

But isn't the whole financing and investment industry based on the "future"? What I'm confused about from a qualitative/academic (read: does not comply with reality) perspective, isn't EVERYTHING a bubble? It's either ride it or push it. Look at the skewed distribution of capital, cliche: rich get richer, blah blah. Look at academia, what do people have to study these days in order to put the minimal food on the table? "Professional" studies, not arts, no literature, no poli/social science. Whatever, you get my drift. Excuse my casual and fragmented writing.

What I'm trying to say is, the fundamentalists (accountants) can say "Gold is a bubble, AAPL is overpriced, etc."...but in the end, since when was the stock market rational and fundamental? According to fundamentals, Gold has no value unless used for producing something, and AAPL is not worth $322,448,000,000 ($350x921.28 million shares outstanding).

All in all, the stock market is a joke?

there's a lot of over simplifications in there. to some the market is nothing more than a system of trade.
you have to realize the the stock market is not a person. it doesn't have feelings nor can it think, it is not irrational nor rational. to think that it is, is to apply human characteristics onto a system created by humans which is illogical. sure it works for religion but we're talking about the stock market here.

[addikt]

there's a lot of over simplifications in there. to some the market is nothing more than a system of trade.
you have to realize the the stock market is not a person. it doesn't have feelings nor can it think, it is not irrational nor rational. to think that it is, is to apply human characteristics onto a system created by humans which is illogical. sure it works for religion but we're talking about the stock market here.

I have to humbly disagree. Human psychology plays a big part in stock market, actually the whole economy. Ask the Fed why it can't increase interest rates :) The stock market is not an independent entity outside of its influence. The prices of stocks are heavily influenced by what people think about the stock, not necessarily what its real value is. This is what is meant by irrational behaviour that shows up in both bull and bear markets, prices that don't make sense mathematically.

If the market was a mechanical system immune to randomness from human emotions then all the geniuses trying to predict market behaviour and spending hours doing their quantitative analysis would be billionaires.

[Thalo]

I would say the stock market is more like a monster on a variety of drugs that the rich can easily manipulate. And you can't avoid its side effects even if you don't invest in it.

And ya the bubble talk is funny, seems everyone wants to be the next big thing calling out some bubble before anyone else does... and then go on TV shows babbling nonsense.

But in all seriousness, the weakness in US $ is making me VERY nervous...

How do the rich "manipulate" the markets? They simply invest and do so long-term, making average returns. That's how wealth is built. They don't panic sell or anxious buy, they don't engage in anything illegal. Those who do make significantly above average return often get burned too (remember all the losers who invested with Madoff?).

[xlfe]

I have to humbly disagree. Human psychology plays a big part in stock market, actually the whole economy. Ask the Fed why it can't increase interest rates :) The stock market is not an independent entity outside of its influence. The prices of stocks are heavily influenced by what people think about the stock, not necessarily what its real value is. This is what is meant by irrational behaviour that shows up in both bull and bear markets, prices that don't make sense mathematically.

If the market was a mechanical system immune to randomness from human emotions then all the geniuses trying to predict market behaviour and spending hours doing their quantitative analysis would be billionaires.

of course prices of stock are heavily influenced by what people think about the stock, it's again a trade.
you haven't proved the market itself is irrational. basically you've only proved people trade on emotion and there can exist over reactions in the market.

say you have a calculator that can only add and subtract. you can enter as many numbers in it as you want. your emotional behavior will result in a random number displayed on the calculator. however the calculator is only a tool.

[chinaboy1021]

By "market", I was not referring to the infrastructure, I was referring to investors (inclusive of professionals and amateurs). Also just to clarify, I think they are irrational from a fundamental valuation perspective. The price of a stock is not based on the valuation of the company's NAV or DCF, a stock's pricing takes on a whole new economic behavior in the stock market when it gets valued based on a supply-vs-demand basis. The item sold on the exchange is not a share of the company, but it is the stock itself. Traders are not evaluating the future earnings of the company, but the future earnings of the stock. They are two separate entities. That's where the whole speculative game comes into play, which can both decrease or increase a stock's current price. Since the price of the stock does not reflect the companies prospective earnings, but reflects the stock's future demand on the exchange, prices are inflated superficially.

Take gold for example. Who declares and enforces the fact that gold is a base currency as it does not change in value? This is only a common belief/speculation among the market. Gold is just another currency theoretically which is only valid as a medium of exchange if everybody agrees to it. Gold in this case is given value the same way as stocks are, a common belief not on the uses/earnings it represents, but the demand for it on the market as a storage of wealth.

My argument is that, the stock market has an environment of its own with different populations, politics, cultures, and behaviors. A large proportion of stock valuation is not based on material assets or future prospects, but based on speculation of changes of the environment (ie. demand/supply, assumptions, general consensus) that exists the stock market itself, separate from the operations of the business as a producer.

;)

[xlfe]

By "market", I was not referring to the infrastructure, I was referring to investors (inclusive of professionals and amateurs). Also just to clarify, I think they are irrational from a fundamental valuation perspective. The price of a stock is not based on the valuation of the company's NAV or DCF, a stock's pricing takes on a whole new economic behavior in the stock market when it gets valued based on a supply-vs-demand basis. The item sold on the exchange is not a share of the company, but it is the stock itself. Traders are not evaluating the future earnings of the company, but the future earnings of the stock. They are two separate entities. That's where the whole speculative game comes into play, which can both decrease or increase a stock's current price. Since the price of the stock does not reflect the companies prospective earnings, but reflects the stock's future demand on the exchange, prices are inflated superficially.

Take gold for example. Who declares and enforces the fact that gold is a base currency as it does not change in value? This is only a common belief/speculation among the market. Gold is just another currency theoretically which is only valid as a medium of exchange if everybody agrees to it. Gold in this case is given value the same way as stocks are, a common belief not on the uses/earnings it represents, but the demand for it on the market as a storage of wealth.

My argument is that, the stock market has an environment of its own with different populations, politics, cultures, and behaviors. A large proportion of stock valuation is not based on material assets or future prospects, but based on speculation of changes of the environment (ie. demand/supply, assumptions, general consensus) that exists the stock market itself, separate from the operations of the business as a producer.

;)

well said, however the assets and future prospects of a stock are related to the speculative changes of the environment explained by you. as a simple example
a gold mining company, if the demand for gold rises so does it's price which in turn increases the valuation of the company as well as it's stocks.
i would say this is logical.

[Jon Lai]

... is wondering where all the value buyers for UUU are hibernating... :lol:

[7jai]

... is wondering where all the value buyers for UUU are hibernating... :lol:

YOU again? :lol: i'm gnna buy UUU when it hits 3.50 levels again. chances are, probably will drop to that point :D

[pipolchap]

... is wondering where all the value buyers for UUU are hibernating... :lol:

I'm still in. I got in at $3.42 and have a modest target at $4.75. How long is it going to take?

[Jon Lai]

YOU again? :lol: i'm gnna buy UUU when it hits 3.50 levels again. chances are, probably will drop to that point :D

Well this is my thread so obviously I'm back xD

Hitting myself for getting in too early again, augh.

[slowtyper]

Well this is my thread so obviously I'm back xD

Hitting myself for getting in too early again, augh.

Yeah, I got in at 3.97 yesterday also.

[plucky duck]

What if they're shorting? :lol:



TBH those only take you so far. They help more in the long term (30+ years) but not so much for short term (0-5 years). These figures only help your investment if every other person investing in that stock also analyzes that data. If most of the investors in that particular stock invest in gut feeling, since they're the ones that will ultimately control the price of the stock, these figures won't do you any good.

Shorts have covered to move aside for the bounce before reentering. The stock is oversold and value long term investors come in to average down. I made my pennies on the dollar and removed myself from rimm.

Looking to see more instability in Japan to bring down ccj and uuu before I take a position in it.

[Jon Lai]

Not much movement around UUU in the past two days... :(

[Crinkle_cut]

Just bought HND today at 7.88

[WontonTiger]

I would say the stock market is more like a monster on a variety of drugs that the rich can easily manipulate. And you can't avoid its side effects even if you don't invest in it.

And ya the bubble talk is funny, seems everyone wants to be the next big thing calling out some bubble before anyone else does... and then go on TV shows babbling nonsense.

But in all seriousness, the weakness in US $ is making me VERY nervous...

I agree with your sentiment. The only people that continually make money on the markets are the super rich. They can weather trends, influence media/citizenry, alter markets, increase speculation, essentially they can do anything with enough money.

You honestly have better odds if you practice up on poker and stick to playing against people you can read. There is a more logical and readable pattern in poker than there is in the stock market.

Most of it is fluff.

[Mark77]

Great article about the nuclear power industry going forward from an investment fund manager:

http://www.ure.com/archives/1220


Post Fukushima– burn more coal and oil, and hire more engineers not regulators

Posted on March 31, 2011 by sgibson



Mark P. Mills Energy Intelligence

It’s too early to predict the final outcome of the still unfolding accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear site that began with the heartbreaking tsunami on 3/11/11. But we do know several things; a) there is by any reasonable measure de minimus broad public risk, b) there will be substantial economic costs to Japan, and c) there will be long-run global energy impacts.


Interesting comments towards the end that might be of interest to engineering people in this forum as well.

[xlfe]

Great article about the nuclear power industry going forward from an investment fund manager:

http://www.ure.com/archives/1220


nice read, unless there's more bad news about it i'm fairly optimistic about the industry.
i think it's pretty certain things will go on, new reactors will be built, some will be closed
and the life expectancy of these reactors will be reduced.

if they can kick off 4th gen production the world will be a little different.

[thelefteyeguy]

sorry i need to shout this...

TO THE MOON


...but 8% in eight days...way too bullish :razz:

new high by monday

[Crinkle_cut]

Selling HND at 8.25 for a 5% gain.

[Jon Lai]

Hm.. someone seems optimistic on UUU. Price shot straight up 2% at the lunch hour and I don't see any news supporting it?

[xlfe]

must be volatility.

[BenK]

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Jon Lai]

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

is going down tomorrow. I called it :P

[BenK]

is going down tomorrow. I called it :P

then i hope you bought a giant lot of ZSL

[xlfe]

what..
i thought it was all about copper now, eqn :)
though technically the spot price fell, go figure what a take over can mean

[Mark77]

TO THE MOON



You sure got that in National Semi after-hours. A 80% takeover premium, talk about insane!

Was there anything in particular about National Semi that made it particularly valuable or synergistic? Or is just the whole darn market undervalued by 50%?

[xlfe]

is going down tomorrow. I called it :P

doesn't look like it lol

[blainehamilton]

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


Is going to test $40 by the end of the week.

Hope everyone else bought in at the single digit amount too...

[thelefteyeguy]

...shorting silver when everything is pointing up is scary...defn gambling

damn missed the EQN boat...i was seriously eyeing that for a while...and waiting for a buy signal :|


look out for uranium stocks (all around)...very close to buy signal

(also...Dow theory buy signal....time to move all in again)

[Jon Lai]

doesn't look like it lol

To be fair it was down 1.2 cents at open :lol:

I seriously doubt it'll test $40 this week...

[Jon Lai]

look out for uranium stocks (all around)...very close to buy signal

Don't know about you but at least UUU in particular, it's recovered 10% from bottom already...

[BenK]

To be fair it was down 1.2 cents at open :lol:

I seriously doubt it'll test $40 this week...

if it breaks $38 today, it will probably touch $40 by Friday.

edit: bam, $38.06. $40 by Friday!

[thelefteyeguy]

K could have a buy signal depending on close....

[xlfe]

it hit over 39....
40 is coming lol

[can2000]

How about ac.b guys? still holding.

[pipolchap]

How about ac.b guys? still holding.

I had to look it up.

Man, that's depressing. What's going on with the airline?

[xlfe]

I had to look it up.

Man, that's depressing. What's going on with the airline?

rising fuel prices, security, bunch of other stuffs added up = lower margins = lower price.
probably over sold.

[Jon Lai]

if it breaks $38 today, it will probably touch $40 by Friday.

edit: bam, $38.06. $40 by Friday!

You meant 39 and 39.06 right? Silver opened >$38 today :lol:

[thelefteyeguy]

looks like a buy signal for miners :razz:

[BenK]

You meant 39 and 39.06 right? Silver opened >$38 today :lol:

I've been talking about SLV.

[thelefteyeguy]

is going down tomorrow. I called it :P

i hope you didnt buy any HZD

or still holding on those HOD from before :|

[dealman5]

I had to look it up.

Man, that's depressing. What's going on with the airline?

Labour unrest...All of the employees (Pilots, mechs, rampies, stewards, and etc.) union contracts expire this year. The unions will want to recoup everything they lost several years back. If not, there could be a strike.

[dealman5]

...shorting silver when everything is pointing up is scary...defn gambling

damn missed the EQN boat...i was seriously eyeing that for a while...and waiting for a buy signal :|


look out for uranium stocks (all around)...very close to buy signal

(also...Dow theory buy signal....time to move all in again)

Any examples for uranium stocks..

[Jon Lai]

i hope you didnt buy any HZD

or still holding on those HOD from before :|

No, I don't play silver :P

Still have the HOD from before. I have so little that it makes little sense to sell it at a loss. I'll just leave them there until the next recession :lol:

My first streak of UUU covered my (current) loss of HOD plus some more. Hoping the second run will be even better. A few more of these runs and I'll be rich :lol:

[blainehamilton]

No, I don't play silver :P

Still have the HOD from before. I have so little that it makes little sense to sell it at a loss. I'll just leave them there until the next recession :lol:

My first streak of UUU covered my (current) loss of HOD plus some more. Hoping the second run will be even better. A few more of these runs and I'll be rich :lol:


Done better than just about anything else in my portfolio. 400% return in about 2 years.

[thelefteyeguy]

Any examples for uranium stocks..

Jon listed a few, if you buy right now...it's very speculative right now....it's not close to a buy signal just yet (like gold right now). I think in another week or so there will likely be a buy signal.

Kinross for example the 5,10,20 EMA just touched today...at touching it exploded at went up another 2.75%

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

major resistance @ $134-134.50 on SPY (S&P 500 index). Trading volume is light, which might be signaling some hesitation from retail investors. If we break through the upper resistance, then there will be a broad market rally.
Watch for any downward trends (e.g. "major" earnings reports this month, economic reports/interest rate, and geo-political news). There is a 50-day support @ $131.30-ish (1.5% downward mrkt potential), in case of a small correction. The market is exhibiting signs of being overbought and a small correction may lead to a better long-term rally. A slight decline over the next few days will form a "cup and handle" chart.

*WARNING: the above statements are my views/opinions on the market and do not represent the opinions of anyone else. You should seek advice from registered investment professionals*

[T3NSION]

Wish I had first majestic over great panther.

[BenK]

Wish I had first majestic over great panther.

goooooooooooooo endeavour!

[thelefteyeguy]

silver is approach $40...anyone looking into realizing some gains ;)

$40 prediction might hit today instead of Friday haha

[xlfe]

gold is at a new high, this is uncharted territory

i actually sold off all my silver couple weeks ago, i was thinking it probably won't go any higher...mostly i was interested with some other metal
on the bright side technically we're more ahead than we think cuz our cad is up over the usd so it's all good.

[BenK]

I was 100% in silver until last week. why why why did I drop SLW... at least i'm still 70% into SLV and EDR. gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo silver!

[Jon Lai]

...this is where I go FML and :facepalm:


:(

Oh well. At least I'm up 1% with UUU.. haha

[Jon Lai]

Wish I had first majestic over great panther.

Time to short FR!

[Thalo]

I was 100% in silver until last week. why why why did I drop SLW... at least i'm still 70% into SLV and EDR. gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo silver!

Why did I drop SLW (for a slight gain) several years ago? :confused:

[BenK]

I was 100% in silver until last week. why why why did I drop SLW... at least i'm still 70% into SLV and EDR. gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo silver!

wow, huge spike down. chickening out now and selling my EDR @ $10.65. +17% in 10 trading days. wont lose sleep if it goes back up.

[tng11]

Haha, portfolio was up 4% until just about an hour ago, now I'm in the red for the day. :lol:

Too bad I missed the silver train, but copper and gold have been good so far, however DGC's been pretty disappointing so far, it has underperformed gold this year and has been extremely volatile.

[thelefteyeguy]

shaking the tree...shake shake shake :lol:

[BenK]

wow, huge spike down. chickening out now and selling my EDR @ $10.65. +17% in 10 trading days. wont lose sleep if it goes back up.

looks like i freaked out for nothing. o well.

edit: boy was i really wrong...2pm @ $11.15

[xlfe]

Oh well. At least I'm up 1% with UUU.. haha

lol perhaps you can answer this question
why is cco down? i don't invest in it however i know others that do and i have it on my watchlist
but spot price is down, the news about japan is worse but uuu and other companies are the same or up
but why cco the company that's probably the least affected by changes in spot price and the most well established down?

it doesn't make sense to me unless there's a crash coming...

[JustBob]

Gold, silver, copper, oil are all up, but all my stocks are in the red except for ECU and WS. I think that's mostly profit taking because the price of commodity stocks (especially gold stocks) has been lagging compared to the actual price of the commodities, i.e. they have some catching up to do, especially the bigger name producers. So I'd hold on to the "big guns" (Barrick, Agnico Eagle, Goldcorp, Kinross, and Silver Wheaton, Pan American Silver, Silver Standard Resources, etc...) if you own them. The juniors well... there's a lot of speculation on these stocks. But I'm sure glad I bought Wildcat Silver on March 1st. :)

[ACC-Major]

lol perhaps you can answer this question
why is cco down? i don't invest in it however i know others that do and i have it on my watchlist
but spot price is down, the news about japan is worse but uuu and other companies are the same or up
but why cco the company that's probably the least affected by changes in spot price and the most well established down?

it doesn't make sense to me unless there's a crash coming...

Usually when there is shares accumulation, the stock goes down. I have experienced that before a couple of times; however, I am not certain with that. It always seem like someone is intending to want the price to go down so they can accumulates. As you can see, the trades were mostly from retail investors trading in the range of 100-500 shares per trade.

Do not quote me on this one, I have no idea what is going on behind the scene, all i know is that Nuclear Energy will prevail lol.

[JustBob]

As the biggest producer, CCO lost less of it's value because of the Japan crisis than smaller producers like UUU, PDN, DML (around 25% versus 30-40% I believe). So you can also expect it to rise more slowly (less volatile) than it's smaller competitors. That's my theory. :)

CCO is actually at 29.27 and the 1 year price target is 38-39.

[kingrukus]

lol perhaps you can answer this question
why is cco down? i don't invest in it however i know others that do and i have it on my watchlist
but spot price is down, the news about japan is worse but uuu and other companies are the same or up
but why cco the company that's probably the least affected by changes in spot price and the most well established down?

it doesn't make sense to me unless there's a crash coming...

The news from japan seems to be getting better actually, or correct me if I am wrong?

[thelefteyeguy]

looks like i freaked out for nothing. o well.

edit: boy was i really wrong...2pm @ $11.15

shake shake shake the weak hands ;)

[Jon Lai]

As the biggest producer, CCO lost less of it's value because of the Japan crisis than smaller producers like UUU, PDN, DML (around 25% versus 30-40% I believe). So you can also expect it to rise more slowly (less volatile) than it's smaller competitors. That's my theory. :)

^ This.

If you check out the graphs, CCO is lost only half of what all the other uranium stocks lost in the same time frame. Given that, obviously it's not going to go up at the same rate as the others either, and on days when the others are only going up by 1-2%, it's not unusual for the blue chip to go the opposite way either (and its not like CCO fell a lot)

[xlfe]

The news from japan seems to be getting better actually, or correct me if I am wrong?

"Among other problems, the document raises new questions about whether pouring water on nuclear fuel in the absence of functioning cooling systems can be sustained indefinitely. Experts have said the Japanese need to continue to keep the fuel cool for many months until the plant can be stabilized, but there is growing awareness that the risks of pumping water on the fuel present a whole new category of challenges that the nuclear industry is only beginning to comprehend. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/world/asia/06nuclear.html

in short they have a problem they still don't know exactly how to deal with, the risks are still there maybe even worse
it may seem better because there's just less news about it...

@justbob hmmm interesting theory

[plucky duck]

Both Sina and sohu had a selloff and midday recovery, both tracking each others performance for the day. After this shake out of weak hands there will come new value buyers to move sohu back up. I am betting we will get up to $100 before sohu's quarter ending.

I bought on fear and kept on averaging down my calls, we'll see how it goes next few days.

[pchi]

I bought 20 shares of AAPL and 200 shares of RIM today on MARGIN. Wish me luck hehehehe!! Let's see who will come out on top in the next week or so....

[mizermalice]

I bought 20 shares of AAPL and 200 shares of RIM today on MARGIN. Wish me luck hehehehe!! Let's see who will come out on top in the next week or so....

ballsy.

im actually waiting on rim to fall into the high 40s before i reach into my pockets

[ACC-Major]

rim still have a future?
have you guys looked at their profits from operations alone?

[xlfe]

rim still have a future?
have you guys looked at their profits from operations alone?

but isn't judging the worth of a stock by it's news and statements
like judging a guy by the clothes he wears?

[eiad77]

rim still have a future?
have you guys looked at their profits from operations alone?

They made $6.36/share last year and $1.79/share last quarter from operations (minus taxes). RIM is trading at about 8 times earnings, what is wrong with that? And their earnings continue to grow. I don't have any shares and won't be buying any, but I don't understand the negatively surrounding the company. Blackberry is still the business phone of choice all over the world and especially in the developing world. I don't know how the playbook will do, maybe that's why people are so negative about the company.

[Sheky]

ballsy.

im actually waiting on rim to fall into the high 40s before i reach into my pockets

He's probably looking for a dead cat bounce. If the market run up a bit more, I can see it rallying to the 200 day before it retests $45.

I agree with you though, wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

My stock holdings: IDCC, K.TO, GIB-A.TO, ABT, INTC, IXYS, BX, and NOK. Oh, also have CBO.TO and some mid-term high yield corporate bonds, in case of a downturn ;)

Looking to exit NOK before the Apr 12th event and before their May earnings. Watching IDCC as it hovers around the 200-day MA, but I like this company long term. I believe Kinross (K) is undervalued based on mine potential and analyst reports.
INTC seems to be the "dog" in my group, but I like it long term, so I might add some more shares soon (<10x P/E). Might also exit BX after their April 21st earnings report (I'm expecting a good qrt), coz LLP and ADR aren't good for registered accounts :( With the freed up capital I'm looking to buy some more Health Care (MDT, SNY) and Natural Resource stocks (CLNE, PRQ.TO)

Watch list: MDT, MU, CLNE, CSCO, OCZ, RCI-B.TO, PRQ.TO, SNY

[Jon Lai]

What website/tools do you guys use for all the analysis such as moving averages?

[Sheky]

What website/tools do you guys use for all the analysis such as moving averages?

www.stockcharts.com
www.freestockcharts.com

[thelefteyeguy]

I bought 20 shares of AAPL and 200 shares of RIM today on MARGIN. Wish me luck hehehehe!! Let's see who will come out on top in the next week or so....

very ballsy...

a lot of uncertainty...esp supply materials from Japan
rebalancing on the NQ, lots of funds bailed when that happened.
Android is taking over market share...RIM is a dinosaur right now

[thelefteyeguy]

another huge earthquake 7.4...Tsunami Warning issued for northern Japan

(id becareful with those uranium longs...)

[pipolchap]

BBC reports the wave is expected to measure "1m (3ft) high". Shouldn't tsunami's have a minimum height?

[thelefteyeguy]

BBC reports the wave is expected to measure "1m (3ft) high". Shouldn't tsunami's have a minimum height?

well 1m would kill lots of animals :|

average height of woman is 153.0 5'0" 1/4

lets not ignore children

[7jai]

regardless of the height of the tsunami, i'm pretty sure this will have an affect on ppl's perception of Japan - therefore it's gonna make stocks sink. And the worst part is noone has much info on the situation, so that makes ppl even more nervous of their stocks - causing them to rather sell, than to hold and wait.

good luck uranium holders!

[thelefteyeguy]

not looking good here...1330 spx support looks broken for real this time


EDIT: this market just won't correct

(Looks like uranium won't get a buy signal next week ;))

[Jon Lai]

Damn, I was actually working for the last hour :lol: and didn't look at the news. Could've made $30...

Oh well, just means I'll hold onto UUU for a while longer and another buy opportunity! haha.

[Jon Lai]

False alarm?

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2011/04/74-magnitude-earthquake-hits-japan-tsunami-alert-issued/1

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

What website/tools do you guys use for all the analysis such as moving averages?

Stockcharts.com
Bigcharts.com

[xlfe]

guess no radioactive tsunami...that's gotta be good.

looks like uuu might rebound lol

[pipolchap]

guess no radioactive tsunami...that's gotta be good.

looks like uuu might rebound lol

Has it hit the coast yet? The pacific needs a little agitation to disperse the radioactivity.

[dealman5]

Would uuu be a good one to buy at 3,93

[xlfe]

Has it hit the coast yet? The pacific needs a little agitation to disperse the radioactivity.

haven't heard any news on it.

i have to say the title from jon lai's link "New quake disrupts power to cooling unit at nuclear plant"
is completely misleading...

edit nvm it's been confirmed it technically did disrupt back up power to different plants

[pipolchap]

haven't heard any news on it.

i have to say the title from jon lai's link "New quake disrupts power to cooling unit at nuclear plant"
is completely misleading...

"The Meteorological Agency had issued a tsunami warning and advisories along the Pacific coast of Miyagi and other prefectures, but the agency lifted all the alerts early Friday."
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/08_h05.html

Don't worry, be happy.

[wolvie11]

"The Meteorological Agency had issued a tsunami warning and advisories along the Pacific coast of Miyagi and other prefectures, but the agency lifted all the alerts early Friday."
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/08_h05.html

Don't worry, be happy.

even if this has some minor effect on the stock price, i would still be holding on to it - CCO.TO as in (semi-long term).. unless it causes an instant meltdown to the plants or something (crosses fingers).. the last thing i need is panic selling.. done enough of that at the beginning of my investing career :lol:

[Jon Lai]

Time to pick up some more UUU at 2% less? :P

[tng11]

Time to pick up some more UUU at 2% less? :P

Evidently, you're a little too emotionally attached to this stock when there has been better picks in the last while.

[BenK]

Evidently, you're a little too emotionally attached to this stock when there has been better picks in the last while.

+1.

You should jump on the silver train!

[wolvie11]

+1.

You should jump on the silver train!

not sure if too late now, what are everyone's thought on silver/copper?

[Jon Lai]

+1.

You should jump on the silver train!

I keep thinking I'm too late for the party.. first at $37, and now I still think silver is overvalued. I don't understand the rally, apart from the fact that its cheaper than gold. On another hand, I know uranium will go up, it's just a matter of time.

[BenK]

I keep thinking I'm too late for the party.. first at $37, and now I still think silver is overvalued. I don't understand the rally, apart from the fact that its cheaper than gold. On another hand, I know uranium will go up, it's just a matter of time.

Just curious, what +/-% are you on your investments? You sound like you buy low only because you expect it to rebound and you never buy anything on an uptrend because you think it's going to peak in the next hour. You sound like a hardcore swing trader (except I haven't heard you say you're shorting stocks...yet lol).

In other news, sold my SLV to buy GOOG (nvm order didn't go through) and bought some GPR.TO to stay on the silver train.

[kingrukus]

can anyone here list some good silver stocks?

[BenK]

can anyone here list some good silver stocks?

depends on your definition of good.

[Jon Lai]

Just curious, what +/-% are you on your investments? You sound like you buy low only because you expect it to rebound and you never buy anything on an uptrend because you think it's going to peak in the next hour. You sound like a hardcore swing trader (except I haven't heard you say you're shorting stocks...yet lol).

In other news, sold my SLV to buy GOOG and bought some GPR.TO to stay on the silver train.

I'm about -3% according to Google Finance, but that's not very accurate as I just started investing in stocks in February and my portfolio is probably not even a tenth of the average portfolio size of everyone here.

[kingrukus]

depends on your definition of good.

stocks on the TSX with high exposure to silver spot price, and are not small cap, something with good daily volume. i am totally new to the sector.

[BenK]

stocks on the TSX with high exposure to silver spot price, and are not small cap, something with good daily volume. i am totally new to the sector.

SLW probably best fits the bill.

There are no good CAD$ silver ETF like SLV.

[Jon Lai]

SLW probably best fits the bill.

There are no good CAD$ silver ETF like SLV.

What about FR? Seems to be doing pretty good.

[LawT]

SLW probably best fits the bill.

There are no good CAD$ silver ETF like SLV.

I continue to see a bull market in commodities and precious metals. Thats a excellent choice.

[T3NSION]

Silver touches $40.

[LawT]

Silver touches $40.

the simple explanation is that the dollar is losing value.

[ACC-Major]

gold and silver will soar past their current prices and hit a price we've never seem before.
it should be a good medium (5-10 years) term play. although I am bullish on them, but i prefer actual companies producing actual goods and services. these companies will outperform gold and silver over the long run. my position in gold silver mining company is around 5-7% now, more assets have been shifted to uranium.

it is funny, Japan just had an earthquake and their index Nikkei 225 went up by 1.5%.
I guess humans are not as stupid as i originally thought.

[Sheky]

What about FR? Seems to be doing pretty good.

FR has a better chart but is way more overbought than SLW and has broken out already and gone parabolic. SLW seems to be an easier play. If you're going to buy SLW, look for a break out above the $45 resistance on high vol or look for a break down to the $38 dollar support/ 50 day. It's got an ascending triangle in place and it looks more likely that it'll break out than to break down.

[BenK]

watch the silver train goooooooooooooooooo

SLV +0.56/1.45%

[Wing Nut]

A year ago I was eager buying and now I'm half eager buying and half anxious buying.

[thelefteyeguy]

lol on gold and silver...parabolic

[xlfe]

woah nice one to the guy who called it on 40 silver by friday.

was watching tepco shares (Tokyo Electric Power Company) up 23%
apparently being able to concrete everything is the ducktape of all solutions.

[pipolchap]

Is the recent rise in precious metals due to the difficulty in resolving the US budget?

Will prices go down once its resolved? Any thoughts?

[xlfe]

Is the recent rise in precious metals due to the difficulty in resolving the US budget?

Will prices go down once its resolved? Any thoughts?

no expert on gold, would be rich if i was lol.
i would assume that's part of the reason as it makes it an attractive investment.

ohh man just as i wrote that i realized the cad is going to rise again...

[thelefteyeguy]

employment rising....higher wages and income...more spending
no end in sight for US govt printing money out of their arses.

...sure ppl can argue that inflation isnt a problem....but i think it's on a lot of ppl's mind.

There's a lot of liquidity in the economy right now...something's got to give. Leaving your money into a bank account making 1-2% while gas prices are rising 1% per week, and lets not talk about food...is going to get you in trouble eventually.

[Jon Lai]

My stop loss for HOD finally kicked in today at -20% :( Good thing I only bought 200... Man, I could've made a good 5% when the earthquake happened but I got too greedy and look at me now...

[blainehamilton]

WOW.

Silver didn't just test $40 today, it blew right past it.


Next stop, $50 an ounce...

[Jon Lai]

WOW.

Silver didn't just test $40 today, it blew right past it.


Next stop, $50 an ounce...

You better be kidding.

I keep telling myself the train's gone, but it keeps going. I don't know what to do anymore.

[thelefteyeguy]

damn triangle broke on gold :confused:

[blainehamilton]

You better be kidding.

I keep telling myself the train's gone, but it keeps going. I don't know what to do anymore.


When did you start telling yourself the train had left the station?

Comparing the value of gold:silver, there is still more correction to happen here. Upwards of $50 later this fall is not at all out of the question. Gold will be reaching $1600-$1650 by that point as well.

Inflation markers we see right in front of our eyes at the grocery store and gas pumps do not lie...

[Jon Lai]

When did you start telling yourself the train had left the station?

Comparing the value of gold:silver, there is still more correction to happen here. Upwards of $50 later this fall is not at all out of the question. Gold will be reaching $1600-$1650 by that point as well.

Inflation markers we see right in front of our eyes at the grocery store and gas pumps do not lie...

Probably around $35. Back a few months when it was breaking $30 I thought to myself... man, is silver really worth this much? Come $35 I told myself, whoever's buying now is going to be crying soon.

Same with gold. I bought precious metal mutual funds even when gold was as high as $1400, but after it hit $1430-1440 I told myself this is not sustainable at all. Look where we're at now :(

[Mark77]

Gold and silver stocks have barely moved in relationship to the metal.

Gold and silver stocks should be moving 2-3X faster than the metal. Instead, they continue to seriously lag.

I would personally not advise buying any metals at this point, and definitely do not buy SLV/GLD ETFs.

[BenK]

Probably around $35. Back a few months when it was breaking $30 I thought to myself... man, is silver really worth this much? Come $35 I told myself, whoever's buying now is going to be crying soon.

Same with gold. I bought precious metal mutual funds even when gold was as high as $1400, but after it hit $1430-1440 I told myself this is not sustainable at all. Look where we're at now :(

With your luck, it might be better for the rest of us if you don't buy in on silver. kthxbye. jk, lol.

Here's an interesting read: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/perfect-storm-gold-silver-silver-surges-6-week-4028-%E2%80%93-gfms-forecast-50oz-year

Sprott also believes silver will reach silver:gold ratio of 16:1 so if gold gets to $1600, silver will mark $100.

“I’ve always thought that silver would move quickly to $50, and it would move to $50 this year – I thought it would get to $50 before year end,” Sprott said. “If you ask me in the three to five year time frame, obviously I think it’s going to go north of $100 simply because we’ll get that 16:1 ratio.” Gold, he said, is going a lot higher.

“Silver is the investment of this decade as gold was the investment of the last decade. So we’re sitting back waiting for things to evolve here,” Sprott concluded.

[xlfe]

Probably around $35. Back a few months when it was breaking $30 I thought to myself... man, is silver really worth this much? Come $35 I told myself, whoever's buying now is going to be crying soon.

Same with gold. I bought precious metal mutual funds even when gold was as high as $1400, but after it hit $1430-1440 I told myself this is not sustainable at all. Look where we're at now :(

we're you the one who said to short silver :lol:

[Jon Lai]

we're you the one who said to short silver :lol:

Not silver in particular, but I think I said one of the silver stocks. I think it was actually FR :lol:

[Jon Lai]

Gold and silver stocks have barely moved in relationship to the metal.

Gold and silver stocks should be moving 2-3X faster than the metal. Instead, they continue to seriously lag.

I would personally not advise buying any metals at this point, and definitely do not buy SLV/GLD ETFs.

Are you suggesting gold/silver stocks are good though, or are you saying to stay away from the industry as a whole?

[blainehamilton]

Silver won't reach a 16:1 ratio with gold. Hasn't maintained that range since the 1850s.

It's swung wildly from 20:1 to 100:1 over the last century. Currently at 36:1, but as gold moves higher, silver needs to keep up just to stay at that ratio. There is still $$$ to be made there.

I would expect 20 to 25 to 1 at the top. Around $60 later this year. There will be some swinging from $39 to $41 over the next week or two before we head higher. Gold is going to test $1500 and blow thru that once it does.

I would jump into physical silver as a short term investment if you haven't already. No more than 10% of your total portfolio value. No ETFs. Buy local or online, pay no taxes, minimal shipping, smaller denominations (1oz/10oz) to eliminate the chance of fakes.

[Sheky]

Probably around $35. Back a few months when it was breaking $30 I thought to myself... man, is silver really worth this much? Come $35 I told myself, whoever's buying now is going to be crying soon.

Same with gold. I bought precious metal mutual funds even when gold was as high as $1400, but after it hit $1430-1440 I told myself this is not sustainable at all. Look where we're at now :(

Gold is breaking out of a flag pattern so I don't think it's done running. I see a $1535 upside target if the current trend holds.

[blainehamilton]

With your luck, it might be better for the rest of us if you don't buy in on silver. kthxbye. jk, lol.

Here's an interesting read: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/perfect-storm-gold-silver-silver-surges-6-week-4028-%E2%80%93-gfms-forecast-50oz-year

Sprott also believes silver will reach silver:gold ratio of 16:1 so if gold gets to $1600, silver will mark $100.


The surges they talk about in that article are basing an inflation adjusted value of silver at $150/oz compared to the peak in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market. They failed and the price dropped like a rock. There is no such manipulation right now, so triple digit values aren't coming anytime soon.

I agree with Mark77 for once and wouldn't buy gold/silver ETFS. I wouldn't buy physical gold either since it is near it's peak. Silver still has a bit of catching up to do and is worth jumping on the money train for the tail end of the trip to it's top.

And gold/silver mining stocks aren't a good investment at this point either, that's like the producer tail wagging the precious metals dog. There are minor benefits to owning them as gold/silver inch upwards, but I'd rather be heavy in oil/energy based utilities right now. (and I am)

[Mark77]

Are you suggesting gold/silver stocks are good though, or are you saying to stay away from the industry as a whole?

I believe there's much better value in buying the miners, than buying the product of mining. That's my belief. Just plot ABX (Barrick) versus GLD (Gold trust ETF) over the past 5 years. The outperformance of GLD is dramatic, and unsustainable. ABX because of its in-ground reserves and high operating leverage, should be outperforming quite dramatically.

[Jon Lai]

The surges they talk about in that article are basing an inflation adjusted value of silver at $150/oz compared to the peak in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market. They failed and the price dropped like a rock. There is no such manipulation right now, so triple digit values aren't coming anytime soon.

I agree with Mark77 for once and wouldn't buy gold/silver ETFS. I wouldn't buy physical gold either since it is near it's peak. Silver still has a bit of catching up to do and is worth jumping on the money train for the tail end of the trip to it's top.

And gold/silver mining stocks aren't a good investment at this point either, that's like the producer tail wagging the precious metals dog. There are minor benefits to owning them as gold/silver inch upwards, but I'd rather be heavy in oil/energy based utilities right now. (and I am)

You're saying no physical, no ETFs, and no mining stocks. What does that leave? Gold/silver trusts? CEF.A?

[blainehamilton]

You're saying no physical, no ETFs, and no mining stocks. What does that leave? Gold/silver trusts? CEF.A?


I would jump into physical silver as a short term investment if you haven't already. No more than 10% of your total portfolio value. No ETFs. Buy local or online, pay no taxes, minimal shipping, smaller denominations (1oz/10oz) to eliminate the chance of fakes


That's the only play that has a chance to yeild decently at this point. You can try physical gold as well, but as I said, I think it's close to it's plateau already.

[addikt]

let's hope they get this budget thing sorted out in US...

[xlfe]

let's hope they get this budget thing sorted out in US...

i thought they came to some sort of an agreement?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/

[addikt]

Yup they've extended the budget temporarily for a week so no shutdown, we'll find out next week exactly what they're cutting.

[cko64]

Yup they've extended the budget temporarily for a week so no shutdown, we'll find out next week exactly what they're cutting.
They extend the budget till September, not just a week.

[addikt]

They extend the budget till September, not just a week.

As I said, the current extension is for a week to work out details of the longer extension (til September) which will have more details on what's being cut.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-08/obama-leaders-fail-to-reach-budget-deal-after-third-meeting-in-two-days.html

[blainehamilton]

Delay of the inevitable...

[Jon Lai]

Delay of the inevitable...

What's the impact on the market, any predictions? QE3?

[blainehamilton]

What's the impact on the market, any predictions? QE3?


At that point, the shift goes away from metals to other consumable commodities. That's why I'm heavy into energy stocks right now. That's the next major play IMOH.

[Jon Lai]

At that point, the shift goes away from metals to other consumable commodities. That's why I'm heavy into energy stocks right now. That's the next major play IMOH.

Weren't energy stocks always hot? I mean, we've seen oil go up 30% in the last 6 months. Not as much as silver, but it wasn't weak either.

[p2rossi]

Oil to the moon :|

[Sheky]

At that point, the shift goes away from metals to other consumable commodities. That's why I'm heavy into energy stocks right now. That's the next major play IMOH.

How do you figure? If they do cut their spending, USD will probably rally a bit and thrash all commodities and not just metals.

[xlfe]

How do you figure? If they do cut their spending, USD will probably rally a bit and thrash all commodities and not just metals.

interesting i never knew all commodities were hedged against the usd.
care to explain?

[T3NSION]

interesting i never knew all commodities were hedged against the usd.
care to explain?

Commodities are priced in USD so the value of the USD would affect the value of commodities.

And on the topic of cutting spending in the US. Ha. 38 billion in cuts? :lol:
Increase interest rates by 0.25% and your adding that back in interest payments.

[Sheky]

interesting i never knew all commodities were hedged against the usd.
care to explain?

What T3NSION said.

Plus the market gravitates toward the USD when it sells off because it's considered "safe", since it's the world's trading currency despite the fundamental problems with the US. That's not to say USD and commodities always move to the inverse. They can still move together when the market is in season like between Oct to May, but the movement is muted. (See Feb 2010 to April 2110 for example.) And gold is a wild card, it is considered as a safe haven to some extent but you can see the gold stocks sold off just as hard as everything else in the fall of 08 before rallying in line with the USD's move.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$USD,$GOLD,$WTIC,$COPPER,JJG,ABX (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$USD,$GOLD,$WTIC,$COPPER,JJG,ABX)

[T3NSION]

41.50

[Jon Lai]

41.50
?

40.97 according to CME

[qaz393]

no worry just pull a JL and everything will be good

[T3NSION]

?

40.97 according to CME

Try kitco

[Sheky]

?

40.97 according to CME

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/forexpowerchart/

Right click on a chart, go New, XAG/USD for streaming silver prices and XAG/USD for gold prices.

[BenK]

hm, interesting that silver is up but all the big miners are down.

gooooo SLV & GPR!!

[Jon Lai]

hm, interesting that silver is up but all the big miners are down.

gooooo SLV & GPR!!

Maybe it means time to get in? :lol:

[xlfe]

too early to tell but a correction may be possible.
so hard to say when to get in.

with regards to gold, probably a relatively safe option.
my money is on another metal.

[tng11]

Wow, -8% on my portfolio so far today. :facepalm:

Being leveraged, with a large portion in solar, mining, oil and technology companies tends to do that. One of my short plays blew up in my face today (TSTY), but fortunately I only shorted when the stock was in the 3.50 range, but I got a little greedy hoping to ride it down to sub-$1. It's up about 150% today on M&A activity. :evil:

[BenK]

looks like silver correction is on!

hope it doesn't last a week like the $35 slash in March

[Jon Lai]

looks like silver correction is on!

hope it doesn't last a week like the $35 slash in March

Looks like it might be time for me to move in :lol:

[blainehamilton]

Mondays are always a slide after a big friday run up. Like I said, it's going to yo-yo up and down the $40 mark over the next week or so, and then it's upwards again.

Prime buying opportunity for those who want to jump in with a small amount of $.

Gold is tracking almost an exact graph. People saw a run up at the end of the week and put in sell orders for their physical holdings and ETFs for monday morning so they could have a worry free weekend.

Once that glut of sell offs are cleared, it's back to business.

[Mark77]

Same pattern for the mining stocks today; plenty of leverage when there's downside, but barely any leverage on the upside. Bizarre.

[Sniper001]

If you guys think its good to get into the Gold miners, you're in for a rude awakening this week.
There's a reason why ABX (for example) is down so much today.......

Anybody noticing the low volume in the markets so recently? That's not very good.

[tng11]

Down another 5% this morning. :facepalm: Got a little greedy, should've taken profits last week.

[kingrukus]

great day for uranium!!!

[Jon Lai]

Ugh, I should stop investing and go back into MF's. My MF portfolio has been doing much better during the same timeframe :facepalm:

[pipolchap]

great day for uranium!!!

I'd buy more at these prices. This is definitely a long hold.

Shouldn't they've buried these d@mn reactors by now?!?! :mad:

[Jon Lai]

I'd buy more at these prices. This is definitely a long hold.

Shouldn't they've buried these d@mn reactors by now?!?! :mad:

If they have it wouldn't have dropped 6.5% today :lol:

[xlfe]

this is chaos

[FlyingOctopus]

Ugh, I should stop investing and go back into MF's.
It might be easier if you stop calling what you are doing in this thread "investing". You're gambling.

[sslaw]

It might be easier if you stop calling what you are doing in this thread "investing". You're gambling.

+1

[rfdrfd]

Don't forget guys, there's also something called : SHORTING

The rate of decline in a stock is always faster than the incline. Panic moves things FAST !

If you don't want the risk of shorting, buy an inverse ETF


My TLT is doing great today

[7jai]

time to load up on Uranium!

[xlfe]

If they have it wouldn't have dropped 6.5% today :lol:

spot price dropped, as well the news from japan was bad
however the recent conference... i thought it went well, but apparently there's still some unknowns.

personally i think it's dropping more because of the rush out of commodities.
not sure what's going up besides bonds...interest rates held as pretty much everyone predicted.

[Jon Lai]

spot price dropped, as well the news from japan was bad
however the recent conference... i thought it went well, but apparently there's still some unknowns.

personally i think it's dropping more because of the rush out of commodities.
not sure what's going up besides bonds...interest rates held as pretty much everyone predicted.

Yea, who knows what'll happen.

Anyways, placed a small limit order of UUU at $3.70. Let's see how things go. Off to lunch!

[xlfe]

Yea, who knows what'll happen.

Anyways, placed a small limit order of UUU at $3.70. Let's see how things go. Off to lunch!

actually it appears to be slowly recovering.
and it's like the slowest recovery ever...

td bank is at a week low, imo people are just getting out of the market.

[kingrukus]

I think as the media continues with this chernobyl type view on japan, uranium stocks will head lower. hopefully not though.

[Mark77]

What a boring day :yawn:

[Jon Lai]

What a boring day :yawn:

Tell me about it. Volumes are pretty low too.

[Thalo]

All this talk about buying uranium. I'd rather be buying the miners of shiny metals I can touch without getting sick, or the drillers of stuff I can put in my car to make it go.

[BenK]

All this talk about buying uranium. I'd rather be buying the miners of shiny metals I can touch without getting sick, or the drillers of stuff I can put in my car to make it go.

+1

[Stryker]

People aren't pessimistic enough about the stock market yet. They just buy on the dips. I still haven't seen any panic selling yet. If it happens, I'll be a buyer, just like 2008 - early 2009. Meanwhile I've just been drip feeding myself into a few pharmaceuticals. Not much else do I see that catches my interest, so far.

[Jon Lai]

People aren't pessimistic enough about the stock market yet. They just buy on the dips. I still haven't seen any panic selling yet. If it happens, I'll be a buyer, just like 2008 - early 2009. Meanwhile I've just been drip feeding myself into a few pharmaceuticals. Not much else do I see that catches my interest, so far.

You're talking big now. In that case you won't buy until every recession...

[Stryker]

You're talking big now. In that case you won't buy until every recession...

Sorry, if I come across as talking big. I've been investing in equities since the early 80's, so when it comes to the stock market I'm quite humble. I'm not a genius by any means, but I've learned a few things along the way, and one of them is the value of patience. It's not a question of waiting for every recession. Even in a bull market, sometimes you can find a few stocks that investors have dumped, selling at the price you want to pay. It's a question of picking your spots. If I can't find anything, then I just add any income to cash, until something interesting comes along.

[EmperorOfCanada]

Sorry, if I come across as talking big. I've been investing in equities since the early 80's, so when it comes to the stock market I'm quite humble. I'm not a genius by any means, but I've learned a few things along the way, and one of them is the value of patience. It's not a question of waiting for every recession. Even in a bull market, sometimes you can find a few stocks that investors have dumped, selling at the price you want to pay. It's a question of picking your spots. If I can't find anything, then I just add any income to cash, until something interesting comes along.

+1 on patience. One thing I have learned in my very short time playing the market is to be patient and wait for a good time, not just invest my money for the sake of having it invested.

[BenK]

+1 on patience. One thing I have learned in my very short time playing the market is to be patient and wait for a good time, not just invest my money for the sake of having it invested.

+9999

[xlfe]

kinda of depends i think

i mean if you had cash lying around wouldn't it be better to stash it in a dividend paying company?
one that could tolerate a little risk...

i guess what i'm saying is isn't there always a better solution out there in the market that is better than just leaving your money alone?

[Stryker]

kinda of depends i think

i mean if you had cash lying around wouldn't it be better to stash it in a dividend paying company?
one that could tolerate a little risk...

i guess what i'm saying is isn't there always a better solution out there in the market that is better than just leaving your money alone?

Not necessarily. He'll usually hold onto the equities he already owns, but Tom Connolly who's been investing in Canadian dividend growth stocks since the early 80's is reluctant to put his money into the market when the stocks he follows are too expensive. He knows that if he's patient and waits a while, then he'll get a higher yield along with the dividend growth on the ones that other panicky investors have sold. Back in the late 90's he was scooping up the dividend stocks that other investors were dumping when they thought they'd get richer by following the herd and buying the high priced tech stocks. The motto then was "this time is different".

[xlfe]

that's a very safe strategy
however i find dividend stocks have a tendency to not drop a lot.
except for companies like ylo who have little prospect for the future.


on a side note... holy crap 4 trillion in over 12 years!?!
that is madness! :lol:

[Crinkle_cut]

Just bought 10,000 shares of MGA (Mega Uranium) at $0.50 a share.

Will sell it when it goes to $0.55

[Jon Lai]

I forgot I set a limit for UUU at $3.79 at lunch... just realized it got triggered :lol: :facepalm:

Silly me.

[Crinkle_cut]

MGA ready to fly soon. Saw the article, its trading at 59% lower than its assets are worth.

And its a prime target for an acquisition. I own 15,000 shares now. Should be an interesting week or two, to see the developments on this.

They claim Paladin is a prime takeover candidate.

[Jon Lai]

MGA ready to fly soon. Saw the article, its trading at 59% lower than its assets are worth.

And its a prime target for an acquisition. I own 15,000 shares now. Should be an interesting week or two, to see the developments on this.

They claim Paladin is a prime takeover candidate.

Nice. Already at your target of 55c. Sold it yet? :lol:

[7jai]

Just bought 10,000 shares of MGA (Mega Uranium) at $0.50 a share.

Will sell it when it goes to $0.55

+1. I bought them as well.

[7jai]

MGA ready to fly soon. Saw the article, its trading at 59% lower than its assets are worth.

And its a prime target for an acquisition. I own 15,000 shares now. Should be an interesting week or two, to see the developments on this.

They claim Paladin is a prime takeover candidate.


Wow, crinkle cut and I think so alike lol. I bought more today too

[Crinkle_cut]

Nice. Already at your target of 55c. Sold it yet? :lol:

Nope, will sell it when it gets into the 70 cent range now.
lol

Well we'll see where it goes after two weeks.

[staffpro]

where do you guys keep money in your rrsp/equities/registered accounts when it is not being used? a bond etf perhaps? somehow i cant believe ppl keep it in money market, high interest savings account?

[Jon Lai]

Nope, will sell it when it gets into the 70 cent range now.
lol

Well we'll see where it goes after two weeks.

I feel left out now :(

My UUU's pales in comparison; only up 1.5-2% today :mad:

No money left to buy MGA, although I've read it up after you guys mentioned it and it does look like an interesting play. I've got a few hundred bucks cash left... could buy less than a thousand shares. LOL. Kidding.

There doesn't seem to be much support (yet) for prices above 55-56 cents so there should still be time to decide.

[will2009wpg]

My UUU's pales in comparison; only up 1.5-2% today :mad:



My CCO sucks even worse. Seemed like a great deal at $28 a few weeks ago, should have sold when it went up to 31 briefly. Same for UUU when it bounced to 4.40.

I guess I'll have to wait a while for rest of the panic to work its way out of the system. I don't expect the previous highs anytime soon, but a modest bump would be greatly appreciated...

[plucky duck]

Ccj was a good trade when it continuously tanked all the way down to 27.34 and rebounded midday and into yesterday. Sina was a very good options play as well. Uuu is more in a holding cycle for now. Sohu as always is a huge tease, touched $98 at least four times each time hitting huge resistance. It's either that or must be options expiry. Made my profit and got out of Sohu after the initial surge and left the few remaining options in there and see where it runs. Much better feeling when you play with house money, much less emotions involved.

[xlfe]

i just realized we all seek the same news lol

you know it's complete speculation and closer to gambling than investing...

[will2009wpg]

i just realized we all seek the same news lol

you know it's complete speculation and closer to gambling than investing...

Sure it is.

my Uranium plays I am basically betting that science and necessity will win out over fear.

Modern Nuclear reactors are way safer than the one in Japan, stopping all nuclear will force countries to use coal which is worse, etc.

Hmmm, wait a minute

I'm betting on science over panic....

What was I thinking, looks like I am going to go broke :facepalm:

[Jon Lai]

i just realized we all seek the same news lol

you know it's complete speculation and closer to gambling than investing...

Depends on how you look at it. Uranium as a sector, I think is investing, for example on blue chips, CCO. Putting the money on a certain uranium company, though, would probably be more of speculating, ie. MGA.

[xlfe]

:lol:

actually i was referring to the speculative takeover and buy based on low p/nav

[Jon Lai]

My CCO sucks even worse. Seemed like a great deal at $28 a few weeks ago, should have sold when it went up to 31 briefly. Same for UUU when it bounced to 4.40.

I guess I'll have to wait a while for rest of the panic to work its way out of the system. I don't expect the previous highs anytime soon, but a modest bump would be greatly appreciated...

CCO was a safe play though, it never dropped as much as the others so it wasn't really as attractive. I'm glad I got out of UUU at 4.35 but could've let it go at 4.5-4.6 if I wasn't so greedy :lol:

Wouldn't mind riding a few more 3.70 to 4.60 trains :lol:

[Jon Lai]

:lol:

actually i was referring to the speculative takeover and buy based on low p/nav

Agree on the takeover, but buying based on NAV isn't really speculation?! That's more of technical analysis, isn't it?

[xlfe]

Agree on the takeover, but buying based on NAV isn't really speculation?! That's more of technical analysis, isn't it?

i thought it was fundamental analysis... anyways lol
i think if you base it solely on nav and buy only on the hopes that it will be taken over and don't plan on holding it for a while then it's complete speculation.

[will2009wpg]

CCO was a safe play though, it never dropped as much as the others so it wasn't really as attractive. I'm glad I got out of UUU at 4.35 but could've let it go at 4.5-4.6 if I wasn't so greedy :lol:

Wouldn't mind riding a few more 3.70 to 4.60 trains :lol:

Yeah but I bought when it bottomed the first time at $28 and then it hit below 27 the other day, and still seems to want to drop more... And now It can't seem to gain more than 0.25% at a time and it keeps losing it again by days end.

I'll be patient but if it starts dropping even further I'll be quite annoyed...

[BenK]

you guys should just be buying silver, SLV up 3% as of 2:30pm

[ilusa]

Buy anything at this point.

Buy buy buy :)

[Jon Lai]

you guys should just be buying silver, SLV up 3% as of 2:30pm

Today's just an odd day - why is silver up so much? The typical days it'll only go up ~1% a day (that's not say 1%/day doesn't add up to quite a bit :lol: )

I want to buy silver too, but all of the miners I have confidence in investing in are too expensive. If I don't have enough cash to even hold 100 shares, then I might as well forget about it.

Plus, people are calling on a pullback to the low 30's before it breaks 50, so I'll just wait it out. Uranium should be back on its feet by then and I'll just switch over <<wishful thinking

[kingrukus]

Thanks for the tip on MGA. I might throw some money in there that I can afford to lose, lol.

Also, keep your eyes on TIM. Anyone have any input on TIM? A lot of inside buying back in january, that is approximately when I bought too. Price has fallen back down a bit lately - apparently some contracts in the work, that can see this thing push $1.00 by Q3. We will see, but I am willing to take a gamble on it...

[will2009wpg]

I think Uranium was ready to rebound a little before Japan changed the threat from a 5 to a 7 and everyone was screaming "CHERNOBYL!", triggering another drop.

CCO tanked below its previous low, but UUU didnt drop much at all. I think there is good support at these prices, and a big wave of money ready to buy as soon as Japan gets things under control.

[kingrukus]

Sure it is.

my Uranium plays I am basically betting that science and necessity will win out over fear.

Modern Nuclear reactors are way safer than the one in Japan, stopping all nuclear will force countries to use coal which is worse, etc.

Hmmm, wait a minute

I'm betting on science over panic....

What was I thinking, looks like I am going to go broke :facepalm:

I am betting the same thing.

A lot of inside buying on DML and UUU at the recent lows. I am going to (somewhat forced to lol) hold until end of year to see where we go. The smart ones had tons of cash and were able to really grab more shares following Tuesday's Level 7 media scare... there will be some more media scares, and more negative sentiment to hold this sector back for the next few months, but once that blows over, it will be a slow but steady climb up.

Where is all the talk on lithium?

[kingrukus]

Anyone know any busy forums other than stockhouse to discuss TSX companies? stockhouse is an unmoderated zoo, full of mud flinging. It seriously seems like a bunch of 7 year olds that have gone wild with their allowances invested.

[will2009wpg]

I am betting the same thing.

A lot of inside buying on DML and UUU at the recent lows. I am going to (somewhat forced to lol) hold until end of year to see where we go. The smart ones had tons of cash and were able to really grab more shares following Tuesday's Level 7 media scare... there will be some more media scares, and more negative sentiment to hold this sector back for the next few months, but once that blows over, it will be a slow but steady climb up.

Where is all the talk on lithium?

Well I'm not too worried about my uranium stock positions, but I (probably foolishly) bought some call options as well just before the level 7 fiasco, hoping to cash in a little on the next bump. They are a few months out but it will hurt real bad if we keep getting these drops.

[will2009wpg]

Anyone know any busy forums other than stockhouse to discuss TSX companies? stockhouse is an unmoderated zoo, full of mud flinging. It seriously seems like a bunch of 7 year olds that have gone wild with their allowances invested.

I'd really like that as well. I kinda wish RFD would relax the no stock tips rule a little bit or make a separate forum for it.

Although we seem to be getting away with some talk here as long as we keep things vague about general sectors and such. Maybe the moderators dont mind if its just in page 28 of a single thread...

[xlfe]

that would be awesome, we should have like our own private investor forum
because technically personal finance extends up to like saving accounts lol..
any further and that's just investing.

[will2009wpg]

that would be awesome, we should have like our own private investor forum
because technically personal finance extends up to like saving accounts lol..
any further and that's just investing.

Yeah if you read the RFD sticky I think they mainly want to keep out rampant speculators and stock "pump'N'dump" people.

I would really like to just discuss sector outlooks, stocks that are good fundamental value plays, perhaps some technical analysis, etc. That seems to be pretty much what we are doing here though...

[plucky duck]

I see Ccj is akin to bp.

[blainehamilton]

Wow. Silver closed at a nice round number of $42.00

The swings on that metal are getting scary. Even gold is pushing back into record territory...

[xlfe]

Yeah if you read the RFD sticky I think they mainly want to keep out rampant speculators and stock "pump'N'dump" people.

I would really like to just discuss sector outlooks, stocks that are good fundamental value plays, perhaps some technical analysis, etc. That seems to be pretty much what we are doing here though...

yea that's something i'm afraid of which is why i always do my own research and be very critical when looking at stocks.
i actually owned some uranium stocks before the quake because the fundamentals and outlook looked good. there was no realistic way to predict that fall. but before the quake the prices were dropping. after the rush to uranium people really figured that was kind of it, the push came a little too early and the demand wasn't there yet. and now it seems that demand will be pushed a little farther back.
but when that demand hits, we're going to look like a genius lol.

but of course it's not a sure thing, there are some things that can happen which may affect the outcome of uranium.

[Jon Lai]

that would be awesome, we should have like our own private investor forum
because technically personal finance extends up to like saving accounts lol..
any further and that's just investing.

Just be glad this thread is still going strong. I honestly thought it wouldn't last this long. :lol:

Shh...

[Jon Lai]

Where is all the talk on lithium?

What about Li?
Haven't read much about it and I have no significant cash remaining on hand anyways :lol: (otherwise I would've bought some positions on SLW or FR)

[Sheky]

CCO was a safe play though, it never dropped as much as the others so it wasn't really as attractive. I'm glad I got out of UUU at 4.35 but could've let it go at 4.5-4.6 if I wasn't so greedy :lol:

Wouldn't mind riding a few more 3.70 to 4.60 trains :lol:

You might get your wish with UUU. It looks like it's forming an Adam and Eve. Closed strongly today and it's slowly rounding off the second bottom with Stochastic pointing up. It should go back to $4.50.

I'm might double down tomorrow if the uptick holds.

[ACC-Major]

I see Ccj is akin to bp.

lol, since when is CCJ responsible for the Japan nuclear crisis?
BP took full responsibility for the oil spill, and RIG was hiding behind it.
So, I would say CCJ = RIG at most lol.

[Mark77]

lol, since when is CCJ responsible for the Japan nuclear crisis?


Well the fuel probably came out of a CCJ mine....

I guess my worry would be, over the longer term, that the Japanese incident accelerates the reprocessing of fuel.

A little known fact out there is that nuclear fuel, with proper reprocessing, essentially is reusable an indefinite number of times.

If fuel is recycled/reprocessed on a widespread basis = bye bye the need for new mine production, since, theoretically, each reactor would only need an initial fuel load for its entire lifetime, and only small amounts of make-up fuel to account for reprocessing losses.


Disclosure: owned CCJ since the IPO.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Readjusted portfolio. Sold Nok @ 9.10, bought K.to @ 15, bought MDT @ 40

[Crinkle_cut]

MGA to open at 0.60 a share!

Not sure when to get out now, cause this has beat my expectations, lol. 15% gain in 2 days.

[BenK]

DOUBLE DOWN ON SILVER!!!

Sold SLV @ 41.30, Bought AGQ at 281.30

[Jon Lai]

MGA to open at 0.60 a share!

Not sure when to get out now, cause this has beat my expectations, lol. 15% gain in 2 days.

Yea, that tends to happen with penny stocks :lol:

[7jai]

MGA to open at 0.60 a share!

Not sure when to get out now, cause this has beat my expectations, lol. 15% gain in 2 days.

I think there is more room to grow for sure. I'm sticking it until 0.70.

[will2009wpg]

Finally a bit of an uptick for uranium. Hope it keeps up and doesnt just snap back down...

[7jai]

disclosure: just bought another 10,000 shares worth of MGA stock at 0.58.

let's see how this baby rides :lol:

[staffpro]

where do you guys keep money in your rrsp/equities/registered accounts when it is not being used? a bond etf perhaps? somehow i cant believe ppl keep it in money market, high interest savings account?

also maybe the investing talk would be allowed if there was a subforum, with a typical disclaimer and limit it to TSX only...

[xlfe]

silver is up
gold as well

[xlfe]

disclosure: just bought another 10,000 shares worth of MGA stock at 0.58.

let's see how this baby rides :lol:

lol here's the thing though, who's going to buy mga?
cameco? can they when their own stocks are so low.

personally i think it's too risky of a bet.
tbh this seems like one of those pump and dump with all the news suggesting that it may be acquired.

[7jai]

lol here's the thing though, who's going to buy mga?
cameco? can they when their own stocks are so low.

personally i think it's too risky of a bet.
tbh this seems like one of those pump and dump with all the news suggesting that it may be acquired.

most definitely agree with your comments, however you can't win big if you don't bet big right?

besides, I do not think a takeover is bad for a stock either. Typically, when a takeover is announced, both stocks soar, and then soon after the company being taken over would bottom up. That would require the extra care and attention by the investee.

[Stryker]

Readjusted portfolio. Sold Nok @ 9.10, bought K.to @ 15, bought MDT @ 40

Best of luck with Medtronic. I don't own it, but at least where you bought it the stock seems reasonably priced with good dividend growth.

[Crinkle_cut]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/uranium-producers-in-takeover-play-as-assets-exceed-share-price-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo

Mega Uranium trades at a 59 percent discount. The price-to-book ratio for Australia’s Paladin Energy Ltd. (PDN), the most likely takeover candidate among producers according to BMO Capital Markets, slid 21 percent.

Most uranium producers can’t do a deal right now because companies like Cameco and Uranium One have shareholders who may block a transaction, he said. Vancouver-based Uranium One is controlled by Russia’s state-owned nuclear company Rosatom Corp.

Foreign Ownership
Cameco, the world’s third-largest uranium producer, is protected by Canadian incorporation rules that cap individual foreign ownership at 15 percent, said Murray Lyons, a spokesman for the Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based company.

[Mark77]

Gold up, Barrick down. Just another typical day. Are Canadian investors really under so much stress that they're not buying this market, or are we just seeing US investors liquidate their positions?? Seems a little silly to have oil and gold zooming like they have been, yet the markets are still down at levels below that of 3 years ago.

[xlfe]

when the shorters go away then it'll be time to play!

[Jon Lai]

lol here's the thing though, who's going to buy mga?
cameco? can they when their own stocks are so low.

personally i think it's too risky of a bet.
tbh this seems like one of those pump and dump with all the news suggesting that it may be acquired.

People are thinking Paladin, but yea, I would agree, MGA right now is pure speculation. The advances are crawling now (same with the entire Uranium sector, it seems) though, so I don't know where it'll go from here. I was so certain UUU would break $4 today :(

[tng11]

Ouch... -10% this week. :cry:

I sold UUU at around 4.3 and bought back at a few days ago at 3.70 so that went well. Everything else I have is deep in the red compared to last week, I'm incredibly heavy in both tech and mining companies. :mad:

[xlfe]

People are thinking Paladin, but yea, I would agree, MGA right now is pure speculation. The advances are crawling now (same with the entire Uranium sector, it seems) though, so I don't know where it'll go from here. I was so certain UUU would break $4 today :(

you can't really expect a push..i mean look at the tsx it's just trending down lol

and yet silver is close to hitting 43...
i dont want to say correction but it's looking like it's getting more and more likely.

[blainehamilton]

Silver broke $43. Gold broke $1485.

Wow, I expected a few weeks before this kind of spike. This is insane.

[Jon Lai]

you can't really expect a push..i mean look at the tsx it's just trending down lol

and yet silver is close to hitting 43...
i dont want to say correction but it's looking like it's getting more and more likely.

Well, I was expecting a 20% silver correction but not for TSX, as our markets still seem to be relatively healthy, unlike some of the miners. Of course, that would mean the TSX would probably have a ~5% correction, similar to the earthquake.

[Mark77]

Well, I was expecting a 20% silver correction but not for TSX, as our markets still seem to be relatively healthy, unlike some of the miners. Of course, that would mean the TSX would probably have a ~5% correction, similar to the earthquake.

Yeah, but WTF is keeping the miners down so much? Are people really buying into the 'end of the world' thesis that miners won't be able to realize any value from their mines? Why do they have no problem keeping firms that have no earnings at insane valuations (ie: ZIP), yet silver and gold miners barely can catch a bid?

[chinaboy1021]

Well...miners operate like fundamental businesses with real costs and revenues. Their main cost is crude, which has been increasing. Their revenues are not increasing because all their current production has been sold already previously at prices which do not reflect current demand. me thinks me thinks.

[Mark77]

Well...miners operate like fundamental businesses with real costs and revenues. Their main cost is crude, which has been increasing. Their revenues are not increasing because all their current production has been sold already previously at prices which do not reflect current demand. me thinks me thinks.

Yeah but even on unhedged miners, you're seeing the same nonsense.

[dealman5]

Would a precious metals mutual fund be a little safer investment than metal stocks. I was looking at RBC p metal fund.

Any advice...

[xlfe]

Would a precious metals mutual fund be a little safer investment than metal stocks. I was looking at RBC p metal fund.

Any advice...

with stocks if can be seen as taking on more risk or less risk. if you happen to buy say mco
which is a gold stock, it had to temporarily suspend gold mining activity and it's down 30% ytd.
these smaller companies can be hit with disasters and be wiped out while bigger companies will be less affected.
because of the extremely volatile nature in these stocks it even carries over to the mutual fund.

there's a lot more to read up on but in terms of investing, if you don't know what you're doing it's probably a better idea to get into the mutual fund than randomly pick stocks.

[Thalo]

when the shorters go away then it'll be time to play!

When the shorters go away the price of a stock can appreciate quite rapidly. I'd play before the shorters go away when pessimism is at its highest.

[xlfe]

When the shorters go away the price of a stock can appreciate quite rapidly. I'd play before the shorters go away when pessimism is at its highest.

heh right before a short squeeze that's a pretty sweet time

[Stryker]

Would a precious metals mutual fund be a little safer investment than metal stocks. I was looking at RBC p metal fund.

Any advice...

The time to be buying a precious metals funds was in 1999 when most people wouldn't go near them. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, most of the knowledgeable investors at that time were madly buying ultra-expensive tech stocks. Perhaps this time is different, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Mark77]

The time to be buying a precious metals funds was in 1999 when most people wouldn't go near them. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, most of the knowledgeable investors at that time were madly buying ultra-expensive tech stocks. Perhaps this time is different, but I wouldn't bet on it.

If you look at stocks like Nortel or Yahoo -- they surged 100X from the base to the peak, roughly.

Gold stocks, on the other hand, have only gone up maybe 4-5X since 1999.

Plenty of upside left. Especially since the stocks are basically trading off earnings, and don't place any value whatsoever on the resource bases owned by the firms.

When you have mining companies buying mining companies with depleted mines simply to get their hands on the equipment and the miners, or hiring every last bit of engineering talent in Canada for $300k/year -- it might be time to sell. But we're nowhere near that.

[Jon Lai]

If you look at stocks like Nortel or Yahoo -- they surged 100X from the base to the peak, roughly.

Gold stocks, on the other hand, have only gone up maybe 4-5X since 1999.

Plenty of upside left. Especially since the stocks are basically trading off earnings, and don't place any value whatsoever on the resource bases owned by the firms.

When you have mining companies buying mining companies with depleted mines simply to get their hands on the equipment and the miners, or hiring every last bit of engineering talent in Canada for $300k/year -- it might be time to sell. But we're nowhere near that.

It's farfetched to compare tech stocks to miners, especially when the 100X you talk of resulted in a 99.9% loss in the industry in 2001. Surely I'm not looking for a similar collapse in the miners.

[Mark77]

It's farfetched to compare tech stocks to miners, especially when the 100X you talk of resulted in a 99.9% loss in the industry in 2001.

Surely I'm not looking for a similar collapse in the miners.

I hope you're right -- but 1980-2000 certainly saw many miners essentially go out of business in Canada, much like the tech firms. These things overshoot. You might see Barrick's in-ground resources being valued at a multiple of the price of gold, at the peak -- just like some tech stocks were valued as though they could deliver enough gear to hook up the world's population 5X over with Internet, even though they were losing money on every sale! Just like Vancouver real estate prices today far outstrip the ability of even most professionals in Vancouver to purchase.

At some point in the future, it will be time to sell miners, and pick up other asset classes. Maybe tech firms, maybe real estate, US banks, etc. will be dirt cheap then. I hope you have an exit plan over the long term.

[xlfe]

came across this www.icicidirect.com
has some nice resources and online tutorials for beginners and a look at india's market

the layout of the site is actually kind of good might seem like a lot at first.

i thoroughly dislike icici but thought someone might want to give it a look

interesting to see their fixed deposits (http://content.icicidirect.com/newsiteContent/ProductService/ProductServices.asp?Product=FixedDeposits) at 8-10% given that their inflation rate is around 9%.

[7jai]

so what are the predictions tomorrow for Uranium? haha

[kingrukus]

It is going to be shaky/flat for a while. One day it will start to surge up. That is my predicition and I am sticking with it - hopeful to see some nice rebounds towards the end of the year.
Incase people haven't been following, insiders have been buying up UUU and DML on recent dips.

[Thalo]

It is going to be shaky/flat for a while. One day it will start to surge up. That is my predicition and I am sticking with it - hopeful to see some nice rebounds towards the end of the year.

I hope you're right! Heck, I wouldn't mind shaky/flat for the next 20 years and then a surge up.

[Jon Lai]

It is going to be shaky/flat for a while. One day it will start to surge up. That is my predicition and I am sticking with it - hopeful to see some nice rebounds towards the end of the year.
Incase people haven't been following, insiders have been buying up UUU and DML on recent dips.

Yea, but despite all that, volume for UUU is still relatively low.

[7jai]

I hope uranium shoots up again this week!

[xlfe]

...One day it will start to surge up. That is my predicition and I am sticking with it - hopeful to see some nice rebounds towards the end of the year.
Incase people haven't been following, insiders have been buying up UUU and DML on recent dips.

i'm betting on that as well.
currently with uuu i see no major signals, in fact price seems really tight as well volume is much below norm...implausible to predict any short term trend.
coincidentally there's not much more news from the quake.

[Jon Lai]

i'm betting on that as well.
currently with uuu i see no major signals, in fact price seems really tight as well volume is much below norm...implausible to predict any short term trend.
coincidentally there's not much more news from the quake.

Wouldn't you actually say there's an abnormally low volumes over the past week? I'm tempted to play the conspiracy card here... :lol:

[blainehamilton]

Wonder if Silver is gonna gun for $45 an ounce this week...

[Stryker]

Wonder if Silver is gonna gun for $45 an ounce this week...

Warren Buffett started buying in July of 1997 when silver futures contracts were at $4.32 per ounce, the lowest price they had been in 650 years. I understand he sold out in 2007. This is the problem with value investing, you buy too early, and your asset stares back at you, doing nothing, sometimes for years, and then usually you end up selling too soon. I guess it protects you from going over the proverbial cliff though, something like Benjamin Graham indicated in regards to "margin of safety", in his investment classic, "The Intelligent Investor".

I always keep one old quip of Warren Buffet's in my mind.

"Berkshire buys when the lemmings are heading the other way."

[7jai]

very mixed open in the US market today. Mixed emotions on Citigroup as well.

I hope the TSX & the Uranium sector does better lol

[r1lee]

What are your guy's thoughts on Silver?

I currently sit on 300 ounces at $30.50 and the remaining 700 at $35.50. I'm been wanting to increase my physical holding, but so far in the last week it hasn't retreated. So I'm scratching my head if there's going to be a slight correction on this. I recently also invested in MFN (MFL.TO) at $12 and change, just as a gamble and that has increased. I seldomly ask about what others are doing, but i'm sort of scratching my head on this one.

[7jai]

damn seems like everything is tanking today, even uranium stocks

[will2009wpg]

very mixed open in the US market today. Mixed emotions on Citigroup as well.

I hope the TSX & the Uranium sector does better lol


Looks like another crappy week :facepalm:

[Jon Lai]

What are your guy's thoughts on Silver?

I currently sit on 300 ounces at $30.50 and the remaining 700 at $35.50. I'm been wanting to increase my physical holding, but so far in the last week it hasn't retreated. So I'm scratching my head if there's going to be a slight correction on this. I recently also invested in MFN (MFL.TO) at $12 and change, just as a gamble and that has increased. I seldomly ask about what others are doing, but i'm sort of scratching my head on this one.

I've mentioned this before but looking at the graphs I think it makes sense for a 20-30% retreat in silver sometime between now and hitting $50. Low $30's will be a good buy opportunity :)

[Stryker]

Looks like another crappy week :facepalm:

I think it's starting to look like a great week.

[Stryker]

Since the majority seem a bit uptight and panicky this morning I capitulated and bought some yellow. No, not the precious metal. Everyone seems to hate this stock, and so I may have to be patient and just sit on it for a few years. In the meantime it's paying me a dividend yield of over 13% and as long as they continue to have the cash flow to cover the dividend payment, I can afford to wait.

[will2009wpg]

Since the majority seem a bit uptight and panicky this morning I capitulated and bought some yellow. No, not the precious metal. Everyone seems to hate this stock, and so I may have to be patient and just sit on it for a few years. In the meantime it's paying me a dividend yield of over 13% and as long as they continue to have the cash flow to cover the dividend payment, I can afford to wait.

I owned that at $6 and was lucky to sell at around 5.9.
I don't know what's wrong with it, but it definitely seems unpopular. The yield is a little ridiculous, I don't know if I'd trust it.

Is it too much to ask to have a even a 1% uranium bump one of these days? :cry:

[BenK]

I've mentioned this before but looking at the graphs I think it makes sense for a 20-30% retreat in silver sometime between now and hitting $50. Low $30's will be a good buy opportunity :)

lol keep dreaming

[r1lee]

lol keep dreaming

i would like it to retreat but that's a massive amount. Your thoughts?

[xlfe]

i would like it to retreat but that's a massive amount. Your thoughts?

20%.... and then up 50% to 50...

i'll believe it when i see it.

[BenK]

i would like it to retreat but that's a massive amount. Your thoughts?

it will retreat, but no less than $35. if GS's major sell off at $41 on Apr 11 couldn't drop it much, its hard to imagine what would trigger a dip below $35.

[will2009wpg]

it will retreat, but no less than $35. if GS's major sell off at $41 on Apr 11 couldn't drop it much, its hard to imagine what would trigger a dip below $35.

Agreed, I think a pullback to 37-38 would see it start climbing again till 50

[Jon Lai]

it will retreat, but no less than $35. if GS's major sell off at $41 on Apr 11 couldn't drop it much, its hard to imagine what would trigger a dip below $35.

I was thinking more towards $32-33 but that's around the same ballpark. Just realized silver isn't actually that expensive and I should've said 15-25% instead of 20-30% :facepalm:

[xlfe]

uuu was down but has recovered even though the tsx hasn't fully recovered.

my investor senses tell me uranium has hit a firm support level
but the technicals don't indicate a reversal on this one.

thus lies the arguement between the investor and the trader.

but with cco, both are in line.
and yet as of right now it doesn't make sense why cco isn't going up.

[will2009wpg]

uuu was down but has recovered even though the tsx hasn't fully recovered.

my investor senses tell me uranium has hit a firm support level
but the technicals don't indicate a reversal on this one.

thus lies the arguement between the investor and the trader.

but with cco, both are in line.
and yet as of right now it doesn't make sense why cco isn't going up.

I agree these stocks have definitely hit a solid support. Even the past few down days they haven't been losing very much.

I think at this point people are just afraid to buy in, as anything bad out of Japan could see another 10% drop. At the same time anyone holding is waiting for that bump to take profits.


Its a giant game of chicken. As soon as UUU jumps to 4.50 there will be mass profit taking, and everyone knows it. There will be a sudden breakout above $4 though, the question is when.

[Jon Lai]

I agree these stocks have definitely hit a solid support. Even the past few down days they haven't been losing very much.

I think at this point people are just afraid to buy in, as anything bad out of Japan could see another 10% drop. At the same time anyone holding is waiting for that bump to take profits.


Its a giant game of chicken. As soon as UUU jumps to 4.50 there will be mass profit taking, and everyone knows it. There will be a sudden breakout above $4 though, the question is when.

Agree with all this. UUU hitting $4.50 again and I will for sure dump all of it, provided that no extremely beneficial news appears that makes it obvious to continue holding it. I can see (and hope to see) a few more roller coaster rides to $4.50 before it actually takes off again closer to where it was a few months ago.

[xlfe]

an investor i followed said something like if you want a safe investment don't buy a company share's whose price is below 20% of a 52 week high.
i always thought of that as kind of dumb, because like what if it drops anyways.
like if you bought uuu months ago at 6 that's still within the 20% and look what would have happened you would have lost like 35%

but i was thinking about it again and i realized what he was trying to do was to say a safe company won't drop more than 20%.
if you look at the history of uuu have they ever dropped 20%?
heck yes, in 2008 they dropped over 95%

so then i was thinking to try and find a stock that has never dropped 20% within a year...
and i'm still looking :lol:

[will2009wpg]

an investor i followed said something like if you want a safe investment don't buy a company share's whose price is below 20% of a 52 week high.
i always thought of that as kind of dumb, because like what if it drops anyways.
like if you bought uuu months ago at 6 that's still within the 20% and look what would have happened you would have lost like 35%

but i was thinking about it again and i realized what he was trying to do was to say a safe company won't drop more than 20%.
if you look at the history of uuu have they ever dropped 20%?
heck yes, in 2008 they dropped over 95%

so then i was thinking to try and find a stock that has never dropped 20% within a year...
and i'm still looking :lol:

Haha, I think just about everything dropped more than 20% around 2008.

Try looking ignoring the 2008 drop.

[ACC-Major]

I wish I had more money lol.

From now on, I am going to keep at least 15% in cash. Being fully invested might not prove to be so ideal for me. It is more ideal for mutual fund managers.

[Jon Lai]

I wish I had more money lol.

From now on, I am going to keep at least 15% in cash. Being fully invested might not prove to be so ideal for me. It is more ideal for mutual fund managers.

What are you trying to get into right now and can't?

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

S&P 500 broke through 50-day/10 week MA :| Looks like a correction is on its way, this week's market performance will largely be swayed by earning reports. The near term (1-3 weeks) doesn't look good...
I'm happy to have sold some of my tech shares. Time to look for other undervalued stocks and wait for a rebound (>40% cash position right now)

[plucky duck]

Premarkets up on goog and Sohu. Sohu's been to $98 at least four times, we'll see if it breaks out today or same dissapointment. If google ends the day at $535 it's a good sign traders are playing the opposite end of the options play.

[Jon Lai]

And another day of uranium silence...

[will2009wpg]

And another day of uranium silence...

yeah its annoying, but it will hit sooner or later...

[chinaboy1021]

Anybody use quest trade? Please provide quick summary of pros and cons.

[will2009wpg]

Anybody use quest trade? Please provide quick summary of pros and cons.

PRO - cheap

CON - a lot of people seem to have fund transfer issues. I have had to go to their support for a lot of little things. They have been a bit of a mess since they upgraded a few months ago.

[blainehamilton]

Silver has spiked in afternoon trading. Getting close to $44 an ounce. With the spike yesterday afternoon and the pullback to $42 and then climb back to $43.50 4 hours later, you can see big time volitility.

Was thinking this morning of getting ready to sell part of my stash. Nope. $50 and above is my starting point...

[xlfe]

i think i lost about 5 bucks trading cco (including comm) today with 3 slightly positive, 1 down and a bunch of neutrals trades.
still long on uranium and thought cco would reverse today but doesn't look like it. support just keeps going down completely feels like there's just no buyers.
so pulling out of short term trading this stock.

then i switched over to silver and it's so much easier trading something that's not totally bearish and low volume :lol:

[Crinkle_cut]

Sold MGA at $0.55. Figure better to just lock in profits. Especially after Goldman Sachs advised everyone to sell their commodities...Stupid investment firm.

Anyways, will wait a few days, to look for some good depreciated stocks. But a lot of devalued commodities, will be good takeover targets moving forward.

Still holding UUU and PDN for long term.

May buy back into MGA when it dips back down again. SSP is another potential takeover target, and has 10 million ounces of gold in the ground.

[will2009wpg]

I'm starting to get a little frustrated. Seems like everything I do the markets go the other way on me.

I'm starting to think maybe I should just swallow some of my losses and take a break. Maybe get in again later when the next big correction comes (and probably stick to indexing at that...). I can't even seem to make money when things go up these days.

[Jon Lai]

Silver has spiked in afternoon trading. Getting close to $44 an ounce. With the spike yesterday afternoon and the pullback to $42 and then climb back to $43.50 4 hours later, you can see big time volitility.

Was thinking this morning of getting ready to sell part of my stash. Nope. $50 and above is my starting point...

No kidding. The volatility in silver sometimes makes me irk.

Nonetheless, I still hold onto my prediction that silver will dip below $35 before reaching $50.

[Crinkle_cut]

Any takers on HND?

I'm debating getting in on that for a quick correction, lol.

[BenK]

Silver has spiked in afternoon trading. Getting close to $44 an ounce. With the spike yesterday afternoon and the pullback to $42 and then climb back to $43.50 4 hours later, you can see big time volitility.

Was thinking this morning of getting ready to sell part of my stash. Nope. $50 and above is my starting point...


No kidding. The volatility in silver sometimes makes me irk.

Nonetheless, I still hold onto my prediction that silver will dip below $35 before reaching $50.

there's no stopping the silver train!!!!!!!!!!!!





...until June 22, when the US gets an interest rate hike (maybe).

[Crinkle_cut]

Decided to hold off on buying HND. Optimal price would be around 8.20.

SSP, optimal price would also be around 2.70

Waiting to see which investment hits my optimal price first, lol.

[Sheky]

I'm starting to get a little frustrated. Seems like everything I do the markets go the other way on me.

I'm starting to think maybe I should just swallow some of my losses and take a break. Maybe get in again later when the next big correction comes (and probably stick to indexing at that...). I can't even seem to make money when things go up these days.

What are you buying that it doesn't go up with the market?

[Sheky]

How are you guys playing silver? It's pretty muted so far, it's trading off the price of gold more than anything unless you got some SLV.

[will2009wpg]

What are you buying that it doesn't go up with the market?

I've mainly just lost on Uranium. I bought after the first drop for what I thought was a good price, and then it dropped more and now its brutally stagnant. I know it will go back up eventually but I really dont want to have to wait like a year...

[Jon Lai]

I've mainly just lost on Uranium. I bought after the first drop for what I thought was a good price, and then it dropped more and now its brutally stagnant. I know it will go back up eventually but I really dont want to have to wait like a year...

Uranium should head back up before the summer. It won't take a year - unless you're waiting for UUU to reach $6.

[will2009wpg]

Uranium should head back up before the summer. It won't take a year - unless you're waiting for UUU to reach $6.

nah I'd be happy with 4.50

I hope you are right.

I've only been trading for less than 6 months. I obviously need to learn patience. I've also made a lot of noob mistakes along the way, but I'm learning.

[Jon Lai]

^^I'm in the same boat, so you should probably take my advice with a grain of salt :lol:

Looks like UUU is going to close with less than 1M in volume for the first time in who knows how long it's been...

[will2009wpg]

^^I'm in the same boat, so you should probably take my advice with a grain of salt :lol:

Looks like UUU is going to close with less than 1M in volume for the first time in who knows how long it's been...

wtf is wrong with people? Its not like every reactor in the world is just going to stop... haha

[Crinkle_cut]

I think it will hit $4.50 in about 3 months time. This japan thing is still weighing on people, and Japan just started removing the water from the nuclear plants. The power plants owe money to the residents evacuated because of the radiation, and won't get up and back running for like 6 months. It's fear thats making the market on uranium stay at a standstill. But it will be back in a bit, just need to be patient.

I got trigger happy, and bought SSP at $2.77. lol. We'll see how it goes, but I generally only hold this stock for a week max.

[3n1gma]

Intel's back in the game :D and UUU went up a decent amount today too :-0

[Jon Lai]

Looks like I was wrong. Someone (or a group of people) bought 500K's worth of UUU within a 5 minute span within the last half hour of the day. Total volume is around the same as yesterday's, and also pushed UUU up a few cents.

I'm still even though :(

[will2009wpg]

Looks like I was wrong. Someone (or a group of people) bought 500K's worth of UUU within a 5 minute span within the last half hour of the day. Total volume is around the same as yesterday's, and also pushed UUU up a few cents.

I'm still even though :(

lol its barely moved for like 2 weeks :razz:

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Finally exited my shares in IDCC yesterday. Bought BX and ABT a week ago. Planning on buying NRG and NVS tmrw. Hopefully S&P breaks thru 10 week MA and maintains support above that level for one final rally before interest rates start kicking in to combat inflation.

I'm bullish on healthcare, tech, and precious metals. Bearish on financials and retail

[Jon Lai]

OK seriously, silver is getting ridiculous.

And finally some uptick for UUU, but that's probably because the market's up.

[exstasie]

OK seriously, silver is getting ridiculous.

And finally some uptick for UUU, but that's probably because the market's up.

It's gotta calm down sooner or later...right? haha

[BenK]

OK seriously, silver is getting ridiculous.

And finally some uptick for UUU, but that's probably because the market's up.


It's gotta calm down sooner or later...right? haha

rawr.

i wonder if i should try and time the dip at $45.

[opensourceportfolio]

I should have bought some more aflac when they were down. It's already been a good gainer for me but they dropped around 15% I believe after the earthquake.

[will2009wpg]

rawr.

i wonder if i should try and time the dip at $45.

I'm thinking it may not pull back untill near the psychological $50 mark. Maybe drop back to just below 45?

[r1lee]

How are you guys playing silver? It's pretty muted so far, it's trading off the price of gold more than anything unless you got some SLV.

I own silver in its physical form, for many reasons other than just invesment. IF you don't like SLV, look at silver mining companies. I have had a decent return so far from MFL.to or MFN, which I bought at $12 a couple/few weeks ago.



OK seriously, silver is getting ridiculous.

Yes, i'm still waiting on the pullback that everyone has stated would happen. >:(

[BenK]

How are you guys playing silver? It's pretty muted so far, it's trading off the price of gold more than anything unless you got some SLV.

SLV w/ my USD and HZU w/ my CAD. Also holding RVM.

edit: and WS.V

[exstasie]

SLV w/ my USD and HZU w/ my CAD. Also holding RVM.

edit: and WS.V

I'm waiting to get in for the HZD....but still doesn't seem ready yet!

[will2009wpg]

I'm waiting to get in for the HZD....but still doesn't seem ready yet!

yeah silver still can go a little more, especially with the way the clowns in the US gov. are handling their debt issues.

[xlfe]

i love how if you compare uranium with silver
its like such a weak recover vs something that's very bullish.

seems like some people are just happy gaining 1-2% on uranium and just want to leave.
i would imagine others would wait till it's 20% then exit.

the past week on silver is giving off a huge bull signal with some indication that it's slowing down.
i can't really characterize between smart investors and greedy investors.

i speculate that gas will also continue to rise
and stocks like air canada will continue to drop.

[BenK]

I'm thinking it may not pull back untill near the psychological $50 mark. Maybe drop back to just below 45?

And the $45 drop beginsssssss

[BenK]

i love how if you compare uranium with silver
its like such a weak recover vs something that's very bullish.

seems like some people are just happy gaining 1-2% on uranium and just want to leave.
i would imagine others would wait till it's 20% then exit.

the past week on silver is giving off a huge bull signal with some indication that it's slowing down.
i can't really characterize between smart investors and greedy investors.

i speculate that gas will also continue to rise
and stocks like air canada will continue to drop.

lol. some ppl are just too emotionally tied to Uranium

Since UUU's lowest point (mar 18), its has gained 15% vs SLV which is up almost 30%. Even if you had timed some of the ups and downs of UUU, you'd only be slightly ahead of investing in silver since mar 18. But I guess "its too late to buy silver now".

[thelefteyeguy]

WOW...silver getting the flush

[will2009wpg]

Correction or blip, that is the question...

[Jon Lai]

And the $45 drop beginsssssss

Let the correction begin!

$35 and I'll buy :)

[Jon Lai]

i love how if you compare uranium with silver
its like such a weak recover vs something that's very bullish.

seems like some people are just happy gaining 1-2% on uranium and just want to leave.
i would imagine others would wait till it's 20% then exit.

the past week on silver is giving off a huge bull signal with some indication that it's slowing down.
i can't really characterize between smart investors and greedy investors.

i speculate that gas will also continue to rise
and stocks like air canada will continue to drop.

You can't really compare. Uranium is something that's waiting to happen, but silver's something that's already happening.

[will2009wpg]

Let the correction begin!

$35 and I'll buy :)

Grabbed some HZD, time to hold on tight and jump at the bottom (hopefully)

[BenK]

Grabbed some HZD, time to hold on tight and jump at the bottom (hopefully)

UltraShort in a bullish trend. ballsy.

[xlfe]

You can't really compare. Uranium is something that's waiting to happen, but silver's something that's already happening.

i can't wait till something happens to uranium :lol:

[Jon Lai]

UltraShort in a bullish trend. ballsy.

+1

I wouldn't have had the balls to do it.

[Jon Lai]

i can't wait till something happens to uranium :lol:

Oh well. At least it's creeping up..... a bit.

But hey, if it's up 2% everyday, that's all we need :lol:

[will2009wpg]

+1

I wouldn't have had the balls to do it.

LOL, don't worry, I didn't get very much.. Nothing I can't afford to lose.

I do wish I had jumped on the bull train earlier though

[xlfe]

i have to say today was pretty flat...
guess everyone is waiting to see what happens.

so following will2009wpg
take your bets and good luck to ya lol

[Jon Lai]

UUU up 10 cents today and doubled yesterday's volume... this might be a good sign...

[exstasie]

Grabbed some HZD, time to hold on tight and jump at the bottom (hopefully)


I'm going to hold off maybe until Monday to buy HZD...we'll see if I still want to invest then!

[Sheky]

What's the news on SLW? Way down compared with other precious metal stocks.

[blainehamilton]

Wow. That $50 mark that seemed so far away on Silver 2 weeks ago is within reach.

Every day there is a hickup midday, and then the rise resumes...

[can2000]

Guys,
Where to fill year 2009 Capital loss on this year tax report? 2010 gain btw. item # please. thanks

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Short-term: Overweight in precious metals, tech (enterprise IT, cloud computing, mobile), and health care (medical devices and big pharmas). Underweight in alternative energies and retail
Mid-term: Overweight in energy + energy services, agriculture (fertilizers and grain suppliers), utilities (electric and nat gas), and telecom (MSOs)
Long-term: Overweight in real estate (commercial and vacation properties), alternative energies (electric, solar, and nat gas), and financials (retail banks/brokerages/asset mgrs)

Underweight in USD: short to mid-term. Overweight in AUD and CAD: short to mid-term. Overweight CNY long-term.

[xlfe]

Short-term: Overweight in precious metals, tech, and health care. Underweight in alternative energies and retail
Mid-term: Overweight in energy, agriculture, utilities, and telecom
Long-term: Overweight in real estate, alternative energies, and financials

Underweight in USD: short to mid-term. Overweight in AUD and CAD: short to mid-term. Overweight CNY long-term.

that's a pretty neat overall strategy.

[chinaboy1021]

I bought AGQ (leveraged silver ETF) several days ago....4 trading days later...12% gain so far ($285-$320)....hiccup today as mentioned earlier, I planned a stop-loss at 300, but never dipped that low and regained to reach a high by the end of the day....

I'm interested in Oil (most dependent commodity) for the long run, lululemon for short term (they may have a stock split in june, also their products are super high margins, not to mention they dominate women's athletic wear), silver (i don't see a reason for silver to crash, it's used for many things including electronics and hedge against inflation) for the quick bang.

One member called for silver slide today, are you serious?
another member holds silver bullions yet wants a pull-back...what is the rationale behind this??

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

that's a pretty neat overall strategy.

Thanks... I'm investing according to long-term economic indicators, demographic shifts, and market cycles.

I'm long precious metals, utilities, high yield bonds, energy (excluding alternative energy), agriculture, and health care. Half my portfolio is allocated to protect against "market collapse or geopolitical conflicts" and the other half is allocated to ride the impending wave of inflation.

1970-1980: Commodity boom then bust
1980-1990: Energy boom then bust
1990-2000: Tech boom then bust
2000-2010: Financial/real estate boom then bust
2010- Present: Commodity boom (the cycle is repeating itself, but there will be a few minor differences, and the boom/busts won't be as severe)

My predictions are continued commodities boom until interest rates start to increase in the USA. Then an energy boom (crude oil hitting $150+), followed by an alternative energies boom (electric and nat gas) to substitute crude oil demand. All the while health care (parmaceuticals and medical devices), agriculture (grain suppliers and fertilizers), and utilities (nat gas, electric/solar) will be on the rise. Health care, agriculture, and utilities are all "essentials" with few substitutes, but out of the three industries, utilities has the highest risk b/c they have less ability to pass on cost/commodity price increases.

[xlfe]

another member holds silver bullions yet wants a pull-back...what is the rationale behind this??

to buy more silver :lol:

[chinaboy1021]

that's a pretty neat overall strategy.

Seems like a gut-feel strategy to me. Concentration on specific firms may yield better returns than an index/industry....

Also I don't see how it is practical to invest in like 10 different industries as mentioned, considering that even the long-term outlook would have to start today. No point buying real estate after the prices have already shot up. Actually nevermind. A strategy is a strategy.....;):cheesygri:twisted:

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Seems like a gut-feel strategy to me. Concentration on specific firms may yield better returns than an index/industry....

Also I don't see how it is practical to invest in like 10 different industries as mentioned, considering that even the long-term outlook would have to start today. No point buying real estate after the prices have already shot up. Actually nevermind. A strategy is a strategy.....;):cheesygri:twisted:

I meant to specify the short/mid/long term strategy as when I'll be reallocating my portfolio. I'm currently in the short-term cycle and have been slowly shifting out of tech stocks (sold IDCC, NOK, NXPI, ARRS) and towards energy, more precious metals, and health care.

I had a really nice run with tech stocks over the past 6-12 months, but a lot of companies are fairly or overvalued now. So I've shifted my focus more towards health care and precious metals over the past 3-6 months. I'm still long in tech, but only a few undervalued companies (INTC, RIM, GLW, MSFT) w/ good potential & products. I'll be selling some of my bond holdings to buy energy stocks, but that's in the near future.

[blainehamilton]

to buy more silver :lol:


Lol. That person should drop me a line when it hits $50 an ounce. I'll sell at that point. :twisted:

I was expecting $60 later this fall, now it might come before summer does. If we enter that territory, it becomes worth more than the rest of my portfolio... :-0 Time to rebalance!

[xlfe]

My predictions are continued commodities boom until interest rates start to increase in the USA. Then an energy boom (crude oil hitting $150+), followed by an alternative energies boom (electric and nat gas) to substitute crude oil demand. All the while health care (parmaceuticals and medical devices), agriculture (grain suppliers and fertilizers), and utilities (nat gas, electric/solar) will be on the rise.

realistic and logical i can follow the train of thought but...
the energy lines up completely with obama's plan. i don't follow the health care sector at all but i assume something has to get cut and it's not going to be defense lol. everything else i can see happen. i think the logic behind the health care is we need the research and the growing health problems as well as more people just living longer and getting older. for me it would be one of the more risky sectors.

@chinaboy1021

actually i think unless i assumed wrong that his strategy will hold all the sectors.
however it will be overweight on the sectors that he thinks will grow faster than the others.

[chinaboy1021]

Ah yes......

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

realistic and logical i can follow the train of thought but...
the energy lines up completely with obama's plan. i don't follow the health care sector at all but i assume something has to get cut and it's not going to be defense lol. everything else i can see happen. i think the logic behind the health care is we need the research and the growing health problems as well as more people just living longer and getting older. for me it would one of the more risky sectors.

Health care is a defensive play. The sector has been undervalued b/c of the health-care reform "risk" in the US. The stocks pay good dividends, a lot of market consolidation so there is less competition, good pricing power on patented drugs, and like you said, people live longer nowadays and need drugs to address their growing health problems. The sector has strong/steady revenue growth and decent profit margins.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Out of all the sectors I outlined in my strategy the riskist ones would be energy (risk of stagflation), utilities (regulatory control with risk of commodity exposure), and financial (bad regulation, so you'll have to dig around to find well managed companies). However, I believe that US crude prices could hit $150+ again (currently at $111), which means that the oil commodity etf (OIL) is undervalued [~$29 now vs ~$87 in 2008] . Also, there has been a huge increase in trading volume over the past 3 months. I'm expecting OIL to reach between $65-70 per share within 6 to 18 months ;)

[Jon Lai]

So many ideas passed around tonight! :lol:

Do you guys play small pharm's or blue chip, ie. VRX?

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

So many ideas passed around tonight! :lol:

Do you guys play small pharm's or blue chip, ie. VRX?

I'm in blue chips (Medical Appliances & Equipment and Drug Manufacturers - Major). ABT, SNY, MDT, NVS. Missed the boat on PFE, JNJ, ISRG, and STJ though...

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=oil&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=11

[BenK]

I'm interested in the oil play for a 3-5 yr outlook. Any good equity plays?

[chinaboy1021]

I'm interested in oil as well, but mainly my plays are based on technicals.....

I dunno. Might put some in DIG (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DIG)(leveraged ETF again)....It replicates Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index but amplifies it by 100%...

[Jon Lai]

Another day of UUU following the index. Boring...

[BenK]

Another day of UUU following the index. Boring...

what movement are you expecting?

I think its easy to say that nuclear energy is definitely necessary in the future, but with most of the countries "re-assessing" their projects right now, there wont be any sharp movement upwards so quickly.

[zoltorg]

I am neither panic selling or anxious buying.

I am comfortable with the level of risk inherent in my portfolio as well as the positions therein. My fixed income percentage is 0% however, I make it a point to have the majority of my positions large-dividend payers with respectable payout ratios and bountiful cash flow. My remaining positions are commodity producers with 25+ years of proved reserves remaining (Gold, Potash Producers) or providers of essential goods in markets where thee are large barriers to entry (specialized pharma with exclusive Canadian distribution rights, pricing power and inherent insulation from generic competition).

I stay away from fad-type stocks that are commonly pop or drop 5% in a given trading session and have my dividends automatically reinvested each dividend date. I add to my portfolio at such times where I have the financial means to do so and it is justified given the security's current price.

I admit in the past I have tried to time the market, going in and out of positions on a daily or weekly basis but I've discovered that I have no talent for it. I have the likes of Goldman Sachs and supercomputers working against me and I do not have the time to stay glued to my screen all day.

I sell my positions when I have a reason to. The stock "not moving" is not a reason. Deterioration of the underlying company's health is a reason.
I add to my portfolio at such times where I have the financial means to do so and where I can obtain a security at a price to earnings or cash flow multiple that is reasonable.

I follow macro trends but do not base my trading around them as the news can change in an instant depending on the decision of a central banker, politician or dictator. I instead base my trading around macro themes that I am confident will continue despite the actions of any one person or party.

These Include:

1. Perpetual QE from the US Fed to deal with debt, deficits and unfunded liabilities. This will lead to higher worldwide inflation, affecting particularly the value of gold and oil which are priced in US dollars.
2. The aging economies of the world and their insatiable need for health care.
3. Peak, or close to Peak Oil. Leading of course to higher real oil prices.
4. The demise of the middle class - No specific play except for avoiding retail plays which are vulnerable to commodity prices.
5. Inherent anti-competitive regulations sustaining industry profits - CRTC
6. Cultural Practices Surrounding Finances - The Swiss will never go broke and will remain the world's bankers for the foreseeable future. This trend will continue as governments of the worlds increase tax rates to pay for austerity measures and prior funding commitments.
7. Management with a large personal stake in the firm will always deliver better than those who don't - At my largest position, management and the board own more than 40% of the firm and are concentrated in increasing free cash flow as they make their gains from dividends rather than goosing up the stock and exercising options.

[BenK]

lol this silver movement is just ridiculous...now i'm afraid of the correction too.

$50 by end of May!!

[pipolchap]

7. Management with a large personal stake in the firm will always deliver better than those who don't - At my largest position, management and the board own more than 40% of the firm and are concentrated in increasing free cash flow as they make their gains from dividends rather than goosing up the stock and exercising options.

Pretty logical re: this point. What are examples of this?

[xlfe]

lol this silver movement is just ridiculous...now i'm afraid of the correction too.

$50 by end of May!!

the usd does not look too good right now...
but earnings haven't been all released yet so there might be a chance for a recovery there.

[zoltorg]

For examples of significant management ownership - look to public companies with market caps of under $2Billion. Board Members of many REITS also hold a large proportion of their personal wealth in the units as well.

Unfortunately, forum rules forbid me from discussing or recommending a particular stock. However I could give you the name of a decent Montreal public company where the CEO owns >30% with a great business model and financials. Market cap around $1Billion and trades on the TSX.

[Jon Lai]

For examples of significant management ownership - look to public companies with market caps of under $2Billion. Board Members of many REITS also hold a large proportion of their personal wealth in the units as well.

Unfortunately, forum rules forbid me from discussing or recommending a particular stock. However I could give you the name of a decent Montreal public company where the CEO owns >30% with a great business model and financials. Market cap around $1Billion and trades on the TSX.

If you've noticed, this thread is full of exactly that. :lol:

Shh...

[Jon Lai]

lol this silver movement is just ridiculous...now i'm afraid of the correction too.

$50 by end of May!!

Ridiculous is right. Apart from a weak USD, I don't see what's making it go up so much day after day, let alone just keeping it at high levels.

[xlfe]

interesting fact

according to terminator lore, the movie with mr arnold schwarzenegger the ex governor
today marks a the day machines will rise and judgement day will be upon us!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13159616

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

BIIB and UNH jumped after earnings report today :D The USD is at a key turning point. It could continue to fall if the Obama administration does not begin increasing interest rates within the next 3-6 months. The US dollar's movement will reflect what traders/the market expects that the govt will do in the near future.

In terms of gold and silver rising, it has mainly been a hedge against the USD and inflation in China, but also a flight to safety given the geopolitical events and catastrophes around the world. Will it continue rising? Possibly. But is there a greater risk premium now? Definitely

[BenK]

SLV just makes me go lollllllllllll now.

[will2009wpg]

SLV just makes me go lollllllllllll now.

Word on the street is Bolivia is threatening to nationalize its silver mining. Even if it doesn't happen, the threat is probably pushing the prices and will continue to do so.

[Jon Lai]

Word on the street is Bolivia is threatening to nationalize its silver mining. Even if it doesn't happen, the threat is probably pushing the prices and will continue to do so.

Still holding onto HZD?

[will2009wpg]

Still holding onto HZD?

Nope. Dumped it before it lost too much, going bull instead. Ill switch back when it stops gaining 4% a day, lol

[BenK]

lolllll

i made 1 months salary in 1 week.

[xlfe]

lolllll

i made 1 months salary in 1 week.

i find that once you do that you can't go back to like couch potato lol

[BenK]

(Financial Times) — Silver surge prompts conspiracy theorists

In 1980 it was the Hunt brothers. In 1998 it was Warren Buffett. And in 2011?
For anyone unversed in the history of the silver market, those dates refer to market squeezes that caused surges in the silver price. The talk among some conspiracy-minded traders and analysts is that something similar could be happening today. It is easy to see why: during the past 12 months the price of silver has risen 154 per cent, outpacing gold (32 per cent), wheat (65 per cent), oil (45 per cent), and indeed almost any investment you’d care to mention.
Perhaps the most telling measure, the ratio between the price of silver and that of gold (ie the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver) has dropped to 33.5 times – after averaging 60-70 during the past decade. The last time the ratio fell even close to this level was in 1998, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway quietly accumulated a huge position in the silver market, driving prices up 90 per cent in a few months to what was then a 10-year high of $7.90. On Wednesday, silver hit $45.37. Before that, the last time the ratio was below 40 was in the early 1980s, following the most notorious silver market squeeze – that of William Herbert Hunt and Nelson Bunker Hunt, two billionaire oil baron brothers.

Is something similar happening today?
The silver market is never short of a wild rumour. The difference this time, though, is that the conspiracy theories are being seriously considered by senior figures in the industry. As one senior banker puts it: “I just do think it has the smell of somebody with a pretty significant buying programme … Silver is the sort of market that every decade attracts someone.” The reason why the conspiracy theories have taken hold is because few traders or analysts can see a convincing reason for silver’s astonishing rise. According to data from consultancy GFMS, the silver market was in a surplus of 178m ounces last year. Crucially, of course, that surplus was mopped up by investors. But visible investor positioning is hardly overwhelmingly positive – indeed, last week, even as silver prices rose, investors cut their bullish positions in the US futures market by 8.4 per cent.

Hence the conspiracy theories.
Some of the whispers making the rounds in dealing rooms in London and Zurich include: A Russian billionaire with an eye for silver has been discreetly buying (for some reason Russia seems to be the most popular location of this putative billionaire – he or she could also be Middle Eastern or perhaps East Asian). There has been a secretive silver buying programme by the People’s Bank of China or some other central bank (but China is the favourite). Chinese traders are using silver imports as collateral to obtain credit in a similar way to copper – thus vastly inflating the country’s silver demand. It is impossible to say if there is even a grain of truth in any of these tales. While some traders are taking them seriously, others believe the rise in prices is perfectly well explained by very strong, inelastic industrial demand plus extremely high retail demand in the US, India and China. One explanation for why the silver market is confusing to many bankers and traders may be that they typically deal with large investors and so see little of the flow to retail investors and industrial consumers. What is certain, however, is that with the view that silver is a speculative bubble so widespread, a sharp and painful correction can’t be ruled out. Again, history may be informative. After the Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980, the price of silver collapsed 80 per cent in four months; the Hunts were later sanctioned for market manipulation and went bankrupt. And following Warren Buffett’s silver play in 1998, the price of the metal dropped 40 per cent and Berkshire Hathaway recorded its worst annual results on record, relative to the S&P 500, in 1999.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading/silver-surges-over-46-25oz-as-rumours-of-a-short-squeeze-and-cornering-market-gain-credence.html

[Jon Lai]

^^ Yea, that's why I kept telling myself silver is too expensive. I still dont' see what's keeping it going up a few percent everyday.

[chinaboy1021]

Same reason why APPL is so expensive. Even if silver is over-valued, big deal, as long as people are willing to pay. The tough part is deciding when to unload.

[Jon Lai]

Same reason why APPL is so expensive. Even if silver is over-valued, big deal, as long as people are willing to pay. The tough part is deciding when to unload.

IMO there's more value and reason for the price of AAPL, but that's just me.

[chinaboy1021]

Question:

Right now I'm holding AGQ, 3-5% daily growth throughout last several months. I'm trying to figure out exit plan. I do have a trailing-stop on this, it's not an issue. But I got some more free cash, I'm wondering why not throw the rest of it in AGQ, and ride it, then unload when it its my loss-limit..It can't be this simple right?

.....where is my flaw??

I looked at several 2008 crashes...I concluded if AGQ were to crash (even though I'm thinking silver is gonna go LONNNGGGG)...I have several days to get out before it its bottom, it's not like a firm bankruptcy.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Question:

Right now I'm holding AGQ, 3-5% daily growth throughout last several months. I'm trying to figure out exit plan. I do have a trailing-stop on this, it's not an issue. But I got some more free cash, I'm wondering why not throw the rest of it in AGQ, and ride it, then unload when it its my loss-limit..It can't be this simple right?

.....where is my flaw??

I looked at several 2008 crashes...I concluded if AGQ were to crash (even though I'm thinking silver is gonna go LONNNGGGG)...I have several days to get out before it its bottom, it's not like a firm bankruptcy.

Personally, I like to diversify a bit, but that's just preference. However, if you're the type to buy 1 security and hold it long-term, then you might as well add some more shares.
Nevertheless, I usually only add to a position before it's risen by 15-20%. I don't buy additional shares b/c it would just increasing my overall base cost, and I tend to rebalance after a couple of my equities gain 20-25%+

Right now I'm long technology, health care, and oil. I'm starting to slowly exit some precious metals b/c of the USD "key turning point". I'm also expecting the US Fed to increase the interest rate soon, but I'm long oil as a "safer" hedge since the economy/consumer requires crude oil on a daily basis for work and operation. It's also a safer hedge in case of geopolitical events further deteriorate in the Middle East/Northern Africa...

[chinaboy1021]

I agree oil is the base for all operations, and also many many products...

for pure gain-wise, with a limited capital base, riding the silver bubble (yet to see resistance) will yield better. When it dips, you can always rebuy later to ride the rise again...

the 15-20% target then unload strategy may be better in terms of timing a resistance/pull back for a fundamental firm or economic cycle, also a time to consider a reallocation of holdings into something more lucrative.

Just talking random though. Everybody has their own strategy.:twisted::twisted::twisted:

[JustBob]

What's the news on SLW? Way down compared with other precious metal stocks.

Silver Wheaton has quite a unique business model called "stream deals". It provides up-front financing to miners to build projects in exchange for the right to buy their silver by-product at the time of production. This translates to low operating costs and big profits since under some of it's current deals, SLW pays about $3.90 an ounce for it's silver at the time of production.

The issue right now is that in order to continue to grow, SLW needs to sign new deals, but with the skyrocketing of silver prices, miners tend to want to hold on to their silver, even if it's only a by-product of their operations. But as soon as you see a correction in silver, I expect SLW to make a bunch of deals because miners try to lock in top value for their by-product rather than hanging on to it.

SLW will announce first quarter results on May 9th.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Long ALTR, LSCC, MCHP, IXYS (30% ROI so far). Also long AET and CVH along w/ my other health care bets ;) Value buys: INTC, MSFT, RIM.

[Stryker]

Same reason why APPL is so expensive. Even if silver is over-valued, big deal, as long as people are willing to pay. The tough part is deciding when to unload.

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

Warren Buffett

[Jon Lai]

I'm in blue chips (Medical Appliances & Equipment and Drug Manufacturers - Major). ABT, SNY, MDT, NVS. Missed the boat on PFE, JNJ, ISRG, and STJ though...

What about Canadian pharma's?

[xlfe]

What about Canadian pharma's?

that's one of the things i don't like about the health care sector, one day everything is going good
the next day they put a cap on generic drugs.

@Stryker
that's a really nice warren buffett quote
but technically you can leave when you see everyone else running to the door :lol:

[addikt]

I agree oil is the base for all operations, and also many many products...

for pure gain-wise, with a limited capital base, riding the silver bubble (yet to see resistance) will yield better. When it dips, you can always rebuy later to ride the rise again...

the 15-20% target then unload strategy may be better in terms of timing a resistance/pull back for a fundamental firm or economic cycle, also a time to consider a reallocation of holdings into something more lucrative.

Just talking random though. Everybody has their own strategy.:twisted::twisted::twisted:

I'd be wary of 'riding out bubbles' since the market has been on drugs for a while. US will have to start cutting free money soon and you can already see the bickering in US congress over budget. Also China can't keep printing money... they have serious problems going on with inflation close to 2007 levels. I don't see China buying T-bills for ever. And of course, there is oil -- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/roubini-says-oil-prices-at-140-may-result-in-double-dip-in-some-nations.html.

It's impossible to predict what'll happen next. If we go by historical records then 66% of bull markets in US that have lasted two years have gone on into a 3rd year of bullish sentiment. Will it happen again? :)

The biggest winners were people who invested heavily in the bull market of 2009... the market has almost doubled its gains since then and it was common to see 100 to 1000% + gains on stocks. It's kind of funny watching all these gold / silver and oil experts acting like geniuses (riding yet another bubble albeit a more predictable one). The real geniuses already made their money and are probably retired now, vacationing some where nice... damn them.

[chinaboy1021]

that's a really nice warren buffett quote
but technically you can leave when you see everyone else running to the door :lol:

Nice quote. You can leave when everybody else is trying to leave, but who has more strength and speed. The HFTs.....

Also terrific_deals, thanks for posting those. Talk about buying low

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

What about Canadian pharma's?

Not much that I'd buy, just because the US market is much larger and has more access to capital for R&D. Just look to buy US pharma's, if you buy ADRs you'll be taxed at 30-35% on dividends. If you buy US pharma's the dividend is taxed at ~15% (W8-BEN form required for non-reg accts, but no forms req'd for registered savings accts) which gives you a better ROI.


Nice quote. You can leave when everybody else is trying to leave, but who has more strength and speed. The HFTs.....

Also terrific_deals, thanks for posting those. Talk about buying low

You're welcome, I bought IXYS when it was $11.40 :D Anyone wanna give me a couple of 'thanks' if you make a decent ROI on the stocks, j/k, haha =P

I'll be buying LSCC next week (~$6.50) and I'll be prospecting MSFT b/c earnings will be announced next Friday (April 28). Intel and Microsoft have already "bottomed out" in their respective sectors. You'll notice that INTC and MSFT always RISE (4-8 months) prior to new product launches, and these two blue chips have a lot of goods perpared in the upcoming product cycle (WP7, Windows 8, Office 2012?, IE 10, etc). Although I'm more bullish on Intel because of its undervaluation vs. Microsoft's fair valuation, but both should outperform in the near future. ;)

[xcentric]

damn silver, didnt think it would go past 35-40. also missed HND at the end of january, im waiting for august now...
anyone invest into FR, and even GPR(it spiked crazy previously, but i think its consolidating right now)
no loss, minimal gains with HGU.... at least.

[kingrukus]

why does google finance show many horizon etfs like hnd, hou, etc as having no data after april 1?

[will2009wpg]

why does google finance show many horizon etfs like hnd, hou, etc as having no data after april 1?

This is happening for a whole bunch of ETF's for me...

[xlfe]

was up for a little fun so i thought i'd post this sort of challenge to anyone who wants to participate.
post some typical stocks and i'll speculate if they will go up or down or stay about the same the next day by the end of the day.

by typical i mean non obscure...like stocks with less than 100 daily volume or has a price less than 1 dollar.

completely just for fun. i've been reading up on my technical analysis so this would be fun. even by chance i should get more than a third of them right :lol:
i'm going to define about the same price as below a .5% change.

i've been pretty skeptical about technical analysis so don't rely on it very much but sometimes i get this feeling that if i do rely on it i'd make more...
kind of just want to prove it to myself.

[chinaboy1021]

Can you tell me the resistance point of NASDAQ:LULU and what kind of prices should I expect if they do confirm a go-ahead for a 2:1 split at shareholder's meeting to be held in June??

Btw just reread your post...how do you do technical analysis at a daily interval?? What is the point of that??

[Jon Lai]

was up for a little fun so i thought i'd post this sort of challenge to anyone who wants to participate.
post some typical stocks and i'll speculate if they will go up or down or stay about the same the next day by the end of the day.

by typical i mean non obscure...like stocks with less than 100 daily volume or has a price less than 1 dollar.

completely just for fun. i've been reading up on my technical analysis so this would be fun. even by chance i should get more than a third of them right :lol:
i'm going to define about the same price as below a .5% change.

i've been pretty skeptical about technical analysis so don't rely on it very much but sometimes i get this feeling that if i do rely on it i'd make more...
kind of just want to prove it to myself.
Out of RFD spirit: what do we benefit from this? :lol:

Here, I'll give you one that doesn't really prove if it works for not (for obvious reasons): UUU







:lol:

[xlfe]

Can you tell me the resistance point of NASDAQ:LULU and what kind of prices should I expect if they do confirm a go-ahead for a 2:1 split at shareholder's meeting to be held in June??

Btw just reread your post...how do you do technical analysis at a daily interval?? What is the point of that??

i can't exactly tell you the how part.
however i can tell you the why.

if you can predict how things will change day to day that's awesome you can just get out and leave and time things perfectly. i wish i could do that.
i'm just looking at the changes in price not factoring in anything else, if i look at the fundamentals or any upcoming events that would defeat the purpose.

@jon lai

:lol: it's on my list will post my prediction when i gather enough.

[chinaboy1021]

It has been fun talking to a wall. Thanks for that. :cheesygri

[xlfe]

it's unfortunate you did not want to participate.

i'm just going to randomly throw in a few
slw, gg, abx

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Atml, lscc, altr, xlnx, vsh, MSFT, syna, cy, clne, ens, gti, abb, bgc, wwd, etn, ppo, xide, emr, amrc, anr, bp, su.to, tlm.to, nxy.to, fan, dbo, WPRT, BTU, AES, MEG.TO, NFX, SFY, NBR, HAL
CPG.TO, PRE.TO, ATH.TO, PMG.TO, PBN.TO, PRQ.TO, POU.TO, BNK.TO, PBG.TO, LEG.TO, CLT.TO, CR.TO, TGL.TO, NVA.TO, K.TO, IDCC, GLW, MCHP, SNY, RIM.TO

Overall market is heading upwards, so you should be correct more than 50% of the time in predicting technical/momentum trends. Check out S&P 500 and NYSE overall trends and you'll see that we're in an upward movement. More earnings report are coming everyday and we'll be breaking new high's. Btw, EIA Energy Conference is taking place April 26-27 so expect a rally in oil/alternative/renewable energy sectors.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-pumps-plan-to-develop-apf-1883916447.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Atypical 'cup w/ handle chart' (SPY = S&P 500 etf tracker). If we break through the $134.11 barrier, then we're bound for another broad rally in intergrated oils, alternative energy, utilities, technology, and health care. The market should be fine b/c RS is picking up above 50+ and MACD has crossed over+ and we're above the 50 & 200 day MA.


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=spy&uf=32&type=4&size=4&sid=9864&style=320&freq=1&time=8&rand=1090470581&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=50&lf=268435456&lf2=4&lf3=32&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

So many good potential stocks to buy, but too little money to invest, lol... I'll be selling all my high yield bond ETF and moving to all securities.

[xlfe]

Atml, lscc, altr, xlnx, vsh, MSFT, syna, cy, clne, ens, gti, abb, bgc, wwd, etn, ppo, xide, emr, amrc, anr, bp, su.to, tlm.to, nxy.to, fan, dbo, WPRT, BTU, AES, MEG.TO, NFX, SFY, NBR, HAL
CPG.TO, PRE.TO, ATH.TO, PMG.TO, PBN.TO, PRQ.TO, POU.TO, BNK.TO, PBG.TO, LEG.TO, CLT.TO, CR.TO, TGL.TO, NVA.TO, K.TO, IDCC, GLW, MCHP, SNY, RIM.TO

Overall market is heading upwards, so you should be correct more than 50% of the time in predicting technical/momentum trends. Check out S&P 500 and NYSE overall trends and you'll see that we're in an upward movement. More earnings report are coming everyday and we'll be breaking new high's. Btw, EIA Energy Conference is taking place April 26-27 so expect a rally in oil/alternative/renewable energy sectors.

thanks bud, going to close it off now.
i do recognize a few of those.

[Stryker]

What's so great about UUU? Most years it hasn't produced any earnings, and year after year, management keeps issuing new common shares like crazy.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

My picks: LSCC, INTC, MSFT, SYNA, ABB, ETN, AMRC, ABT, SNY, PFE, TEVA, UTHR, LIFE, TLCR, ESRX, AET, CI, MDT, ZMH, KCI

[Jon Lai]

Just read a few news articles published over the weekend and it seems like I might have to retract my "prediction" of a 20% retreat in silver before breaking $50. Thoughts? I still think the value is inflated and there doesn't seem to be any 'good' investments right now anyways. The miners haven't been tracking the spot price very well.

Not like I have any cash right now to make a decent purchase anyways, though :lol:

[Mark77]

Just read a few news articles published over the weekend and it seems like I might have to retract my "prediction" of a 20% retreat in silver before breaking $50. Thoughts? I still think the value is inflated and there doesn't seem to be any 'good' investments right now anyways. The miners haven't been tracking the spot price very well.

Not like I have any cash right now to make a decent purchase anyways, though :lol:

Yeah, pricing on the miners is such that the market is expecting a massive pullback. Its rather painful, seeing silver go up >10% in a week and my silver stocks essentially stay flat.

[ACC-Major]

My picks: LSCC, INTC, MSFT, SYNA, ABB, ETN, AMRC, ABT, SNY, PFE, TEVA, UTHR, LIFE, TLCR, ESRX, AET, CI, MDT, ZMH, KCI

Could you provide a few points on why your picks are good?
Aside from your feeling that they will go up.

[xlfe]

my prediction

Atml UP
abb UP
syna UP
altr UP
anr UP
gti UP
amrc UP
BTU UP
GLW UP
MSFT UP
PRE.TO UP

CR.TO down
POU.TO down
ATH.TO down
clne down
uuu down

BNK.TO same
wwd same
K.TO same
RIM.TO same
TGL.TO same
xide same
PBN.TO same
SNY same
xlnx same


So if my end score is between 35-65% right then i'll consider results too unclear from simple random chance.
if it's outside of this range then results were successful. note the "same" results will be omitted.
a second group of just the "up" will also be summarized.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Could you provide a few points on why your picks are good?
Aside from your feeling that they will go up.

Just a brief summary of my investment strategy:
1) Valuation analysis (FCF, margins, ROE, ROI, sector/peer ratio comparisons) - analyze the business and read brokerage reports on future prospects
2) Macro economic and market analysis (fiscal/monetary govt policies) - read reports by leading economists that predicted the market meltdown pre-2008 and try to predic movements in interest rates, inflation, etc...
3) Political mandates (renewal energy, fuel cell, natural gas/fracking policy) - read the political section of the news paper (e.g. UBB's affect on Canadian telecos, or CRTC/judicial court's response on foreign capex investments + M&As)
4) Technical chart analysis (broad market and individual sectors) - understand 'when' the market is moving upwards (timing). An analogy would be a rising tide carries all boats ;)
5) Understanding product cycles and other cyclical movements & how that may affect earnings (energy/nat gas, retail, precious metal cycles etc...)
6) Reseach, due diligence, and a small appetite for risk

[xlfe]

silver is nearing 48, just wow

[blainehamilton]

silver is nearing 48, just wow

$50 by may 1 would be awesome.

[kingrukus]

1/2 of me believe I am too late to the SLV / SLW game. The other 1/2 of me believes that there is a lot of money to be made.

Can anyone here explain the fundamentals behind silver going up? Is it just investors rushing to a precious metal as something "safe"?

I have a theory here, if anyone cares to listen; we will see another market crash sometime during or after this summer. Oil bubble formed fast again, US economic situation, investors pouring cash into precious metals. Anyone with me on this?

[Mark77]

1/2 of me believe I am too late to the SLV / SLW game. The other 1/2 of me believes that there is a lot of money to be made.


The "universe" is much larger than just SLV/SLW. For instance, I currently own a producing silver miner in Canada, the US, and Mexico, and Argentina with a great project pipeline, that has a 20% IRR, trades at 'book' value, all based on $20/ounce silver. The company itself is valued at around $2/ounce of in-ground resource, plus they have a very large cash position and production costs in the $10-$12/ounce range.

Barring a major collapse in silver prices over the next 5 years, I don't see why I couldn't easily triple my money.



Can anyone here explain the fundamentals behind silver going up? Is it just investors rushing to a precious metal as something "safe"?


Unlike gold, silver has industrial demand, especially in electronics, and recycling isn't very feasible, unlike gold. The 'problem' with gold is that most of the gold ever mined sits in vaults or can be returned to market if prices go into the stratosphere, while with silver, such recovery is not possible.



I have a theory here, if anyone cares to listen; we will see another market crash sometime during or after this summer. Oil bubble formed fast again, US economic situation, investors pouring cash into precious metals. Anyone with me on this?

I agree that the metals are due for a pullback, but the mining stocks seem to be severely undervalued at this point.

I believe buying certain stocks in the sector could be like buying Yahoo in the mid 1990s for around $7. Eventually Yahoo went to $110, and today Yahoo is still $17.

If Nortel can reach a $400B valuation back in 2000 -- with all the monetary expansion we've seen as of late, I don't see why Barrick couldn't eventually become a $1T company. Of course, when that happens, it will definitely be time to sell. Hopefully you'll be able to buy lots of cheap houses :).

[T3NSION]

$48.33

[T3NSION]

:lol::lol:

[xlfe]

$48.33

lol it already passed 49

err 49.50...

[Stryker]

The "universe" is much larger than just SLV/SLW. For instance, I currently own a producing silver miner in Canada, the US, and Mexico, and Argentina with a great project pipeline, that has a 20% IRR, trades at 'book' value, all based on $20/ounce silver. The company itself is valued at around $2/ounce of in-ground resource, plus they have a very large cash position and production costs in the $10-$12/ounce range.

I don't suppose that would be tangible book value (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/TBVPS.asp) you're referring to, would it?

[BenK]

and i was worried about holding onto silver over the long weekend, bwahahaaha

[Mark77]

I don't suppose that would be tangible book value (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/TBVPS.asp) you're referring to, would it?

"book value" really doesn't have a lot of meaning in the mining world, but if you give an IRR, and its at book value, the IRR should equal your return as a shareholder, assuming that severely adverse business conditions do not exist.

[Jon Lai]

and i was worried about holding onto silver over the long weekend, bwahahaaha

All gone now :lol:

+/-$3 all within a night, talk about WOW!

Is the 20% silver correction coming? :)

[Jon Lai]

I have a theory here, if anyone cares to listen; we will see another market crash sometime during or after this summer. Oil bubble formed fast again, US economic situation, investors pouring cash into precious metals. Anyone with me on this?

I'm with you, although I don't have a date yet. I can't see enough evidence that it'll happen this year, let alone in the Fall. But as with what history and science tells us, what goes up... must come down; eventually. :lol:

[chinaboy1021]

yea.....AGQ opened at 365/share today, now it's at 335 and dropping. I had 18 shares in this, $540 gross drop. Net gain of 2.7% for 5-6 trading days. done with leveraged silver for now.

Everyone on my watch list is down today. Nice day to rebalance. $30/transaction fees at RBC is gonna hurt.

[will2009wpg]

All gone now :lol:

+/-$3 all within a night, talk about WOW!

Is the 20% silver correction coming? :)

Seems to be recovering already, up 2% now.

[BenK]

Seems to be recovering already, up 2% now.

+1, selling my AGQ now. Going back into SLV. 22% in 6 trading days.

[will2009wpg]

Can someone explain a bit the pro's and con's of the leveraged horizon ETFs?

I understand they aren't meant for long term holding due to value leakage because of the way their leveraging works, but how bad is that?


Are they a good thing to hold in a case like we have seen with silver where it has gone up 2% a day for a week or so? Do they just get hit harder on the down days? etc.

[will2009wpg]

+1, selling my AGQ now. Going back into SLV. 22% in 6 trading days.

SLV 70% in 2 trading days with a well placed call option :P

[BenK]

Can someone explain a bit the pro's and con's of the leveraged horizon ETFs?

I understand they aren't meant for long term holding due to value leakage because of the way their leveraging works, but how bad is that?


Are they a good thing to hold in a case like we have seen with silver where it has gone up 2% a day for a week or so? Do they just get hit harder on the down days? etc.

In simple terms, think of X as the base security and assume 1% leak. Its 2X-1% when security X is moving up, but its -2X-1% when security X is moving down. So when you win, you win less than 2X but when you lose, you lose more than 2X. Essentially there's more to lose than gain.

In periods where you have a lot of confidence that the base security will move up, holding a leveraged ETF is not a bad idea.

[will2009wpg]

In simple terms, think of X as the base security and assume 1% leak. Its 2X-1% when security X is moving up, but its -2X-1% when security X is moving down. So when you win, you win less than 2X but when you lose, you lose more than 2X. Essentially there's more to lose than gain.

In periods where you have a lot of confidence that the base security will move up, holding a leveraged ETF is not a bad idea.

Ah ok that makes sense. The downs hit harder and up days only help if its enough to surpass the leakage

[Jon Lai]

SLV 70% in 2 trading days with a well placed call option :P

How do you place an option "well"?

[will2009wpg]

How do you place an option "well"?

Buy it at a low price and sell it for nearly double 2 days later?

[xlfe]

results of my prediction.

total 13/25 = 52%
UP and down 8/16 = 50%
UP 3/11 = 27%
down 5/5 100%

stratified average results 60% - 65%

conclusion
total results indicate that my predictions are inaccurate.
however up and down groups indicate different results. the results were likely affected by larger market forces today. further testing is required but it is likely this technique will not provide accurate short term buy predictions.

a further test will be performed in a week.

[Crinkle_cut]

Sold SSP today for a 7% gain. Just bought HND. hope to see natural gas prices fall in the next few days!

[kingrukus]

Has anyone noticed that google finance's data is lacking for many different tickers, including all the horizon ETF's?

As for the leveraged 2x ETFs, is it a guaranteed 1% leak, or is the 1% an average figure?

I need to start day trading again, Uranium I predict will be flat until mid/end of summer. But then again I don't know anything.

[kingrukus]

So anyone here bullish on copper? The Barrick bid for EQN may jumpstart the entire sector...actually I am sure it will. Would be nice to ride it for a bit...
ML, LUN, what else?

Anyone here holding any TCM?

[will2009wpg]

Has anyone noticed that google finance's data is lacking for many different tickers, including all the horizon ETF's?

As for the leveraged 2x ETFs, is it a guaranteed 1% leak, or is the 1% an average figure?

I need to start day trading again, Uranium I predict will be flat until mid/end of summer. But then again I don't know anything.

Yeah google finance is screwed up for a lot of ETF's. Even a canadian index fund from claymore is messed up for me...

[BenK]

Has anyone noticed that google finance's data is lacking for many different tickers, including all the horizon ETF's?

As for the leveraged 2x ETFs, is it a guaranteed 1% leak, or is the 1% an average figure?

I need to start day trading again, Uranium I predict will be flat until mid/end of summer. But then again I don't know anything.

I made up that 1%, you will have to look into the reports to see what is the actual 'leak'.


So anyone here bullish on copper? The Barrick bid for EQN may jumpstart the entire sector...actually I am sure it will. Would be nice to ride it for a bit...
ML, LUN, what else?

Anyone here holding any TCM?

Holding ARG and watching CUU.v

[will2009wpg]

Down day for everything so far...

What are people doing with their silver now?

[Jon Lai]

So much for whoever said a week ago that SLW had a resistance level at $38 :lol:

[exstasie]

Down day for everything so far...

What are people doing with their silver now?


I bought the HZD yesterday at 4.25...going to ride it for a bit, but think this will only be a temporary drop. So far i'm up 11%. Might sell it soon.

[Jon Lai]

Sold SSP today for a 7% gain. Just bought HND. hope to see natural gas prices fall in the next few days!

What are you basing that off of?

[BenK]

Down day for everything so far...

What are people doing with their silver now?

sold my AGQ yesterday and thank god i didn't pick up SLV. I am still holding onto one miner though, RVM, down about 2%, but still net green.

[will2009wpg]

I made up that 1%, you will have to look into the reports to see what is the actual 'leak'.


Just looking at the difference between HZU and HZD on a given day, it seems to be around 0.1%

for example atm silver is down 4%. Hzu is down 7.520%, Hzd is up 7.36%

Thats a difference of 0.16%.

Without the leakage Hzu should be down 7.44 and hzd up 7.44, which means that there is a .08% difference from the mean. The Gains are .08 lower and the losses .08 more. This gets reversed for each fund when silver goes up.

Notice also that with silver up 4% there is still .54 that both funds dont get (2X should be 8%, not 7.44) so there is leakage there as well.

[kingrukus]

looks like we are getting a little pullback in silver...

Despite my previous comment about getting into day trading, I really don't think trend/day trading is wise. Sometimes you get lucky and sell early, othertimes you can get really hurt. Go with something that has long term fundamentals. This is why I am still bullish on the uranium plays, and always will be with oil (especially Suncor - but won't get into that until we see a retreat of crude to below 100).

As for precious metals - is there any fundamental reason why silver/gold should stay where they are and rise in the long term (i.e. 5+ years)?

[kingrukus]

Just looking at the difference between HZU and HZD on a given day, it seems to be around 0.1%

for example atm silver is down 4%. Hzu is down 7.520%, Hzd is up 7.36%

Thats a difference of 0.16%.

Without the leakage Hzu should be down 7.44 and hzd up 7.44, which means that there is a .08% difference from the mean. The Gains are .08 lower and the losses .08 more. This gets reversed for each fund when silver goes up.

Notice also that with silver up 4% there is still .54 that both funds dont get (2X should be 8%, not 7.44) so there is leakage there as well.
There is a leak in all of Horizon's ETF. I wonder where this leaked cash goes....

From their site...
The HBP Crude Oil Bull+ ETF and the HBP Crude Oil Bear+ ETF take positions in financial instruments and/or equity securities to seek daily investment results, before fees and expense


So I guess that is what is contributing in part to their "leak"... I understand their current value is proportional to the time rate change of the item on which they are based on (eg HOU on the price of crude), however it bothers me that HOU is down ~90% and HOD is down ~ 50% since its inception. These ETFS should never be held long term.

[will2009wpg]

There is a leak in all of Horizon's ETF. I wonder where this leaked cash goes....

From their site...
The HBP Crude Oil Bull+ ETF and the HBP Crude Oil Bear+ ETF take positions in financial instruments and/or equity securities to seek daily investment results, before fees and expense


So I guess that is what is contributing in part to their "leak"... I understand their current value is proportional to the time rate change of the item on which they are based on (eg HOU on the price of crude), however it bothers me that HOU is down ~90% and HOD is down ~ 50% since its inception. These ETFS should never be held long term.


Apparently the major reason for the leak is that these funds hold a lot of derivatives and leveraged investments on margin and they have to do a bunch of settling every day which eats away at the value.

If the asset is flat 0%, then both the bull and bear naturally decay.

Also as has been said, the up days you get less than 2X, the down days you lose more than 2X, so the end result long term, is decline.

[Crinkle_cut]

What are you basing that off of?

That most analysts predict Natural Gas prices to be around 3.85. And now its sitting at 4.40 which is high in my opinion.

In addition, inventories should be building up as spring is here, and people aren't using their heaters as much as in winter.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Get ready for a run-up from the SPX. I'm predicting we reach 1400 before summer and possibly top out around 1440-1470 before the end of the year. Long tech (blue chips), alt energy, energy, and health care. Might start looking at some defensive sectors in anticipation of a looming market correction (e.g. telecoms, services, and conglomerates)

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Btw, I'm long on USD, US real estate, and I'm actively looking to short over-valued US Internet/Tech stocks (e.g. NFLX, APPL, JDSU, RHT etc...)

[Jon Lai]

That most analysts predict Natural Gas prices to be around 3.85. And now its sitting at 4.40 which is high in my opinion.

In addition, inventories should be building up as spring is here, and people aren't using their heaters as much as in winter.

Well it's down 1 cent so far :P

[mizermalice]

I bought in Monday (silver), when i should've bought in Tuesday.

Oh man if only...

anyway, with today's massive jump no longer in the red.
feel bad for anybody who shorted silver yesterday

[will2009wpg]

I bought in Monday (silver), when i should've bought in Tuesday.

Oh man if only...

anyway, with today's massive jump no longer in the red.
feel bad for anybody who shorted silver yesterday

I set up both shorts and longs yesterday. Managed to pull the shorts today when it was only up about 1%.

Now I just hope this bull rush continues for the week.

[Jon Lai]

I just got back from lunch and WTF happened? $2 in silver within the last 2 hours?

[mizermalice]

whoever had the guts to buy long yesterday, i salute you

[will2009wpg]

I just got back from lunch and WTF happened? $2 in silver within the last 2 hours?

Mess with the bull, you get the horns :twisted:

[exstasie]

I bought in Monday (silver), when i should've bought in Tuesday.

Oh man if only...

anyway, with today's massive jump no longer in the red.
feel bad for anybody who shorted silver yesterday

I know eh?
Who knows how far this is going to go...

[xlfe]

bah i thought it was going to go down more.
Bernanke ftw!

[BenK]

I just got back from lunch and WTF happened? $2 in silver within the last 2 hours?

lol. dude, i've been telling you to jump in since like...$38?

[Jon Lai]

lol. dude, i've been telling you to jump in since like...$38?

*sigh*

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

All my stocks were up over the past few days :D A couple to a few percent each day ;)

I'm not investing or shorting silver coz the volatility is too high for a new position. I'm going to happily ride the wave up until 1400, then reduce my exposure by up to 20% and again if the S&P500 reaches around 1450 ^__^
Time to start locking in some profits. Seems like a few of the larger institutional investors exited positions when S&P correct at the 1330 level. It would be wise for individual investors to start slowly exiting the market in anticipation of a market correct in mid-summer.

[Jon Lai]

I honestly hate silver. I can't, for any reason, see what people are thinking about it. Yes, the world is a bit shaky right now so precious metals will go up, but for the heck of me, silver shouldn't be this high. The world simply isn't bad enough, to my eyes, that justifies a 100% increase in silver price since half a year ago.

Plus, we still didn't see much of a pullback. $45 is nothing, that was barely 10%. Still waiting for that 20-25% pullback, hopefully before it reaches $50.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I honestly hate silver. I can't, for any reason, see what people are thinking about it. Yes, the world is a bit shaky right now so precious metals will go up, but for the heck of me, silver shouldn't be this high. The world simply isn't bad enough, to my eyes, that justifies a 100% increase in silver price since half a year ago.

Plus, we still didn't see much of a pullback. $45 is nothing, that was barely 10%. Still waiting for that 20-25% pullback, hopefully before it reaches $50.

Well, take a look at NFLX, JDSU, AMZN, and PCLN... All of these stocks have gained 400%+ in most cases, the P/E (mid 70's up to 370+), P/S, and P/B of these "growth" companies are ridiculous. JDSU bubble #2, will we see a repeat? :lol:

[will2009wpg]

I honestly hate silver. I can't, for any reason, see what people are thinking about it. Yes, the world is a bit shaky right now so precious metals will go up, but for the heck of me, silver shouldn't be this high. The world simply isn't bad enough, to my eyes, that justifies a 100% increase in silver price since half a year ago.

Plus, we still didn't see much of a pullback. $45 is nothing, that was barely 10%. Still waiting for that 20-25% pullback, hopefully before it reaches $50.

Silver is acting like gold was the last couple years, except for silver there are a few major differences:

1: There are a lot more actual industrial uses for silver, which means there is real demand other than jewelery and investors.

2: There aren't nearly as many pure silver mines like you see with gold, it is mostly a byproduct of other mining.

3: Historically, as a currency (if you believe silver is acting like a currency now), silver to gold ratio should be more like 16:1. That implies $100+ silver.

[tng11]

Well, take a look at NFLX, JDSU, AMZN, and PCLN... All of these stocks have gained 400%+ in most cases, the P/E (mid 70's up to 370+), P/S, and P/B of these "growth" companies are ridiculous. JDSU bubble #2, will we see a repeat? :lol:

If you think those are ridiculous, CRM has to be the king of overvalued stocks. It was painful watch AMZN rocket to where it is today, when I got out at 160 just about a month ago. Worst thing is, I almost shorted them along with NFLX when I sold. I'm still tempted to short NFLX and OPEN, but I'm feeling a little jittery as they still have huge swings everyday.

[T3NSION]

I honestly hate silver. I can't, for any reason, see what people are thinking about it. Yes, the world is a bit shaky right now so precious metals will go up, but for the heck of me, silver shouldn't be this high. The world simply isn't bad enough, to my eyes, that justifies a 100% increase in silver price since half a year ago.

Plus, we still didn't see much of a pullback. $45 is nothing, that was barely 10%. Still waiting for that 20-25% pullback, hopefully before it reaches $50.

It was undervalued for a long time for a variety of reasons. Having said that I plan to switch my silver over to gold above 50.. Has run up too fast, gotta lower my risk

[Jon Lai]

3: Historically, as a currency (if you believe silver is acting like a currency now), silver to gold ratio should be more like 16:1. That implies $100+ silver.

I keep hearing this.

Historically.. when? Like in the Roman empires? Things have changed since then. I've been charting gold and silver and I don't see when in the past few decades it's ever been 16:1 - Hunt brothers event excluded.

---

BTW, UUU's on a roll this morning. Massive volume and massive ups! Gogogo!

[will2009wpg]

I keep hearing this.

Historically.. when? Like in the Roman empires? Things have changed since then. I've been charting gold and silver and I don't see when in the past few decades it's ever been 16:1 - Hunt brothers event excluded.

---

BTW, UUU's on a roll this morning. Massive volume and massive ups! Gogogo!

How about back when silver and gold where actual currencies.

"The gold/silver ratio is often analyzed by traders, investors and buyers.[5] In 1792, the gold/silver ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 1:15,[6] which meant that one troy ounce of gold would buy 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 1:15.5 was enacted in France in 1803." -wikipedia

[can2000]

---

btw, uuu's on a roll this morning. Massive volume and massive ups! Gogogo!

uuu red now somehow.

[can2000]

sILVER 49.18

[will2009wpg]

sILVER 49.18

Yeah... I think it might not be a bad day to take some profits. two 5% days in a row, and I managed to turn $2000 into $3000.

[Jon Lai]

uuu red now somehow.

I spoke too soon. Should've sold at 4.17 :lol:

[can2000]

I spoke too soon. Should've sold at 4.17 :lol:

It is above 200MA, and just borke previoous high 4.07$. Hope it is just back test to shake out some of weak guys.

[will2009wpg]

Questrade heart attack! :facepalm:

I just sold a position and it executed and told me the executed price was ($0.00)

Luckily it was just a bug...

[can2000]

It looks like ECA.to is bottom.

[Jon Lai]

It is above 200MA, and just borke previoous high 4.07$. Hope it is just back test to shake out some of weak guys.

In the green again. Let's hope it runs this time.

[will2009wpg]

Sold my SLV calls and my HZU for a 50% net profit.

Used some of that profit to open a small put in SLV (not too big. I'll cash it if silver pulls back even a couple%), and put half my cash into a non leveraged gold/silver ETF, so I can still reap some gains but wont get crushed by a pullback.

Other half of my cash is sitting in wait for a good buy.

[pipolchap]

It looks like ECA.to is bottom.

I'm long on ECA. What is with the upshoot?

[can2000]

I'm long on ECA. What is with the upshoot?

Support by MA200.
Another reason maybe by downgrade, lol
look at this:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_E/threadview?m=te&bn=13903&tid=51582&mid=51591&tof=1&frt=2#51591

[pipolchap]

Support by MA200.
Another reason maybe by downgrade, lol
look at this:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_E/threadview?m=te&bn=13903&tid=51582&mid=51591&tof=1&frt=2#51591

haha I see.

I bought this a few days ago just after they reported disappointing earnings and just before the downgrade. After 3 years of waiting, I'm finally feeling a bit bullish on gas with the soaring price of petrol.

I see gas is going up abit, probably after the Thurs report. HNU anyone?

[can2000]

haha I see.

I bought this a few days ago just after they reported disappointing earnings and just before the downgrade. After 3 years of waiting, I'm finally feeling a bit bullish on gas with the soaring price of petrol.



Dont forget the China Petro deal too. Hope it gets approved soon.

[exstasie]

Silver going to hit $50 today??

[will2009wpg]

Silver going to hit $50 today??

Might hit it, but it doesnt want to, and it will pull back if it does.

[BenK]

Silver going to hit $50 today??

doubt it. there will be lots of resistance.

[will2009wpg]

doubt it. there will be lots of resistance.

yep,

Sold my puts from this morning on the dip, made 40% in 3 hours. Bought more long calls.

It can bounce between 46 and 49 forever, I'll happily rake profit on each end ;)

[xlfe]

In the green again. Let's hope it runs this time.

yea i saw it jump to 4.17 this morning, all the other uranium producers were down
i guess there was 1 company that said hey there going to have a conference call, that's gotta be good and buys bringing the price up
and like 5 minutes later everyone jumps in to sell :lol:

seems like all miners are taking a hit today

[can2000]

eca.to so far so good.
31.45 0.70 (2.28%)

[will2009wpg]

LMAO the calls I picked up at noon are already up 25%.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Hnu.to is forming a cup with handle technical chart. I'll be setting a buy tmrw for ~$6.13 and about 1000 shares

Will also take a look at the natural gas sector to see if I can find some good undervalued conpanies. Getting good gains all around. Hedged some of my stock picks against the USD and I'm still long on CAD/AUD.

[Jon Lai]

LMAO the calls I picked up at noon are already up 25%.

Calls for what?


Hnu.to is forming a cup with handle technical chart. I'll be setting a buy tmrw for ~$6.13 and about 1000 shares

Will also take a look at the natural gas sector to see if I can find some good undervalued conpanies. Getting good gains all around. Hedged some of my stock picks against the USD and I'm still long on CAD/AUD.

Crinkle thinks Natural gas is going down, you want it to go up...

[BenK]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rim-issues-profit-warning/article2002515/

lolololol

RIMM down 9% in after-hour trading.

[will2009wpg]

Calls for what?



SLV calls

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

My stock picks (on Sunday, April 24, 2011) LSCC, INTC, MSFT, SYNA, ABB, ETN, AMRC, ABT, SNY, PFE, TEVA, UTHR, LIFE, TLCR, ESRX, AET, CI, MDT, ZMH, KCI

LSCC up 8.57%
INTC up 6.69%
MSFT up 4.50%
SYNA up 4.42%
ABB up 7.32%
ETN up 1.07%
AMRC up 0.36%
ABT up 1.53%
SNY up 3.29%
PFE up 4.41%
TEVA up 1.10%
UTHR down 2.97%
LIFE up 4.70%
TLCR break even
ESRX up 1.18%
AET up 6.23%
CI up 3.78%
MDT up 2.80%
ZMH up 5.86%
KCI up 5.54%

1/20 break-even
1/20 down
18/20 up

90% accuracy, average gain if equally allocated = 3.52% (S&P 500 return over the 4 day period is a gain of 1.75%) ;) Annualized ROR would be approx. 183%
With a small $50,000 portfolio, the returns would be about +$1620 (net transaction fees) in less than a week

Discounting S&P's gains from my picks still nets 65% accuracy overall
7/20 down
13/20 up

Personal portfolio: I'm up 35.5% on IXYS, 12% on INTC, break-even on K.TO (sold), 8.6% on LSCC, 5.1% on MDT, 10.25% on XLNX, 7.3% on ABB, and 3.7% on MSFT
Average return on portfolio = 11.53% :D

[Sheky]

It looks like ECA.to is bottom.

Agreed. Nibbled at it this morning. Bounced off 200 day, positive divergence, SSTO pointing up and broke up above 20 on the US side, and it's in season.

[Thalo]

My stock picks (on Sunday, April 24, 2011) LSCC, INTC, MSFT, SYNA, ABB, ETN, AMRC, ABT, SNY, PFE, TEVA, UTHR, LIFE, TLCR, ESRX, AET, CI, MDT, ZMH, KCI

LSCC up 8.57%
INTC up 6.69%
MSFT up 4.50%
SYNA up 4.42%
ABB up 7.32%
ETN up 1.07%
AMRC up 0.36%
ABT up 1.53%
SNY up 3.29%
PFE up 4.41%
TEVA up 1.10%
UTHR down 2.97%
LIFE up 4.70%
TLCR break even
ESRX up 1.18%
AET up 6.23%
CI up 3.78%
MDT up 2.80%
ZMH up 5.86%
KCI up 5.54%

1/20 break-even
1/20 down
18/20 up

90% accuracy, average gain if equally allocated = 3.52% (S&P 500 return over the 4 day period is a gain of 1.75%) ;) Annualized ROR would be approx. 183%
With a small $50,000 portfolio, the returns would be about +$1620 (net transaction fees) in less than a week

Discounting S&P's gains from my picks still nets 65% accuracy overall
7/20 down
13/20 up

Personal portfolio: I'm up 35.5% on IXYS, 12% on INTC, break-even on K.TO (sold), 8.6% on LSCC, 5.1% on MDT, 10.25% on XLNX, 7.3% on ABB, and 3.7% on MSFT
Average return on portfolio = 11.53% :D

How do I sign up to your newsletter?

[Jon Lai]

How do I sign up to your newsletter?

Well, he posted it in this thread a week back :lol:

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/you-panic-selling-anxious-buying-1015701/16/#post12786043

Let's hope he continues to post them, although I don't quite have enough cash to evenly distribute and buy 20 different stocks. Even investing just $1K into each would cost $20K :lol:

Can I request a TSX only version as well? :)

[xlfe]

heh
i'll have to update my predictions tomorrow

so far i know i was right about uuu dropping :lol:

but like my forcast was for one day i had to mark ABB as a down where i can see (from the above list) it was up actually up after 4 days.
so given that monday was just a down day, i think my results for a week will be much better.
so i'll expect my up prediction to be higher than 27% lol

which reminds me i needa update my tracker!

[Phat_cow]

How much money do you all start with? I'm a beginner and i'm seriously considering buying stock. Maybe start with 10k be a good start?

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

How much money do you all start with? I'm a beginner and i'm seriously considering buying stock. Maybe start with 10k be a good start?

With 10K you can invest in stocks but you'll have less diversification, so you need to research each investment more carefully and hold a bit longer. I'd recommend no more than 3 or 4 picks or else you wont have a meaningful position. I would choose two stocks and a broader market/sector ETF.

BTW, I wouldn't be rushing into the current market because I believe we're on the last stages of a bull rally. There will probably be a meaningful correction from mid-June till September or later. I'm only investing because ive already had some gains secured and i'm adding some minor positions :D I'll be moving from 70-75% equities to <50% expore when we reach 1425+ on the S&P 500

[xlfe]

Discounting S&P's gains from my picks still nets 65% accuracy overall
7/20 down
13/20 up



i was wondering how my predictions compared to yours so i modified it to 4 days, results are as follows.
my buy predictions then my short predictions.



atml 1.55%
abb 7.32%
syna 4.42%
altr 7.46%
anr -1.02%
gti 12.20%
amrc 0.36%
btu -2.39%
glw 2.73%
msft 4.50%
pre.to -3.80%
average 3.03%
8/11

cr.to 0.97%
pou.to 3.68%
ath.to 0.26%
clne -4.99%
uuu 1.52%
average 0.29%
4/5


accuracy with predictions 12/16 = 75%
stratified average = 76%

excluding sp/tsx gain's (buy only) not fair to compare both as you didn't pick any shorts.
6/11 = 55% (64% if it was counting with shorts)

however i think it's more telling if you can predict if a stock will go either way not just one way.

we should do this again sometime :lol:

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

i was wondering how my predictions compared to yours so i modified it to 4 days, results are as follows.
my buy predictions then my short predictions.



atml 1.55%
abb 7.32%
syna 4.42%
altr 7.46%
anr -1.02%
gti 12.20%
amrc 0.36%
btu -2.39%
glw 2.73%
msft 4.50%
pre.to -3.80%
average 3.03%
8/11

cr.to 0.97%
pou.to 3.68%
ath.to 0.26%
clne -4.99%
uuu 1.52%
average 0.29%
4/5


accuracy with predictions 12/16 = 75%
stratified average = 76%

excluding sp/tsx gain's (buy only) not fair to compare both as you didn't pick any shorts.
6/11 = 55% (64% if it was counting with shorts)

however i think it's more telling if you can predict if a stock will go either way not just one way.

we should do this again sometime :lol:

Hehe, sure, we can try predicting our picks sometime again this weekend. I have a few that I've kept my eyes on for a while, but I want to dig a little deeper in the financial statements and company reports.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Well, he posted it in this thread a week back :lol:

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/you-panic-selling-anxious-buying-1015701/16/#post12786043

Let's hope he continues to post them, although I don't quite have enough cash to evenly distribute and buy 20 different stocks. Even investing just $1K into each would cost $20K :lol:

Can I request a TSX only version as well? :)

I'll have a few TSX stock picks for next week, but the Canadian market is inherently more concentrated in fewer sectors, so it's sometimes a bit more difficult to find "good" mid to large CAP stocks. But I've been keeping my eyes on a couple that I'll post over the wknd and we can see how they fare next week.

[Jon Lai]

I'll have a few TSX stock picks for next week, but the Canadian market is inherently more concentrated in fewer sectors, so it's sometimes a bit more difficult to find "good" mid to large CAP stocks. But I've been keeping my eyes on a couple that I'll post over the wknd and we can see how they fare next week.

Sounds great - not that I have any cash left for a significant position though, but I do have enough left for a good options buy. Unfortunately all my money's stuck in uranium and insurance stocks right now, and I have to hold those till who-knows-when.

[will2009wpg]

Sounds great - not that I have any cash left for a significant position though, but I do have enough left for a good options buy. Unfortunately all my money's stuck in uranium and insurance stocks right now, and I have to hold those till who-knows-when.

I gave up on uranium and switched to silver. Doubled my money in a week

[BenK]

my condolences to anyone whose long on RIMM

[Jon Lai]

I gave up on uranium and switched to silver. Doubled my money in a week

I would've done the same if I didn't always keep thinking silver was overpriced since $35... :facepalm:

[Jon Lai]

my condolences to anyone whose long on RIMM

Is it a good buy now at $46? :P

[7jai]

whew, thank god i shorted this RIM sucker! just in time to collect da cash :lol:

[BenK]

Is it a good buy now at $46? :P

Short term, probably an okay bet. I see it slowly going up until the blackberry world convention. But I wouldn't hold it much longer after that.

[will2009wpg]

whew, thank god i shorted this RIM sucker! just in time to collect da cash :lol:

Ugh, I was totally gonna short it yesterday but didnt, lol

[7jai]

whatever happened to the uranium noise? it just all became very quiet and dead :(

[will2009wpg]

whatever happened to the uranium noise? it just all became very quiet and dead :(

Its gonna be a long slog for those. A lot of us got in hoping for a big jump but it isnt happening. Hard to wait that out when silver is jumping 2% a day.

[taal]

So here's a question for you all:

Using whatever strategy or you like. Do you attend to come out ahead ever year ? Ahead in this case would mean better then the TSX (or really just about the same %).
This is not in anyway a rant against active trading. Quite the opposite. I used to dabble in this game and it was a lot of fun, I made some money as well. Unfortunetly I'm the sort of person that needs to do a lot of research before investing anything (though it likely doesn't help at all :) and lately (the last couple years) there just hasn't been time so I've left the active trading world for a passive (low MER index mutual fund approach; typical allocations spread around the usual suspects). But no specialization i.e. nothing specific in say commodities / real estate / ... so simply the markets them selves (TSX / DOW / ...).


I'm expecting this answer:
Well of course we come out ahead on the whole (I don't mean in a 2 month period but over time i.e. say a couple years or even longer) - honestly you don't need to come out ahead, just close. You may lack the international diversifiction which make work out in your favour at times ... what I mean by that is you may not be ahead of the TSX but you'll be ahead of anyone who has the typical global asset allocation.

[Jon Lai]

Its gonna be a long slog for those. A lot of us got in hoping for a big jump but it isnt happening. Hard to wait that out when silver is jumping 2% a day.

Yea... I'm thinking of exiting UUU soon. I have profits but they're slim for what I could've had for silver.

SLW a good bet? It's down almost 2% today.

[xlfe]

wow rim... i love how it gets at least 7 target downgrades today, kinda after the fact.

judging by the charts and given i have a 75-80% accuracy with predicting stocks that will go down
i believe rim still has room to go down.

i have my eyes off silver until it can prove itself again and then correct lol
gold is a safer bet if your looking for preservation.

[Jon Lai]

wow rim... i love how it gets at least 7 target downgrades today, kinda after the fact.

judging by the charts and given i have a 75-80% accuracy with predicting stocks that will go down
i believe rim still has room to go down.

i have my eyes off silver until it can prove itself again and then correct lol
gold is a safer bet if your looking for preservation.

I'm looking for growth:P

Any target price for RIM before it rebounds? Wouldn't be bad to pick it up for a quick gain.

[xlfe]

I'm looking for growth:P

Any target price for RIM before it rebounds? Wouldn't be bad to pick it up for a quick gain.

you really shouldn't trust those target prices lol
i mean they haven't actually released their earnings yet until it's out it's all speculation.

personally given that it expects at least a 11% drop in eps due to lower demand a 14% drop on the first day is reasonable.
however they plan to release new phones later in the year...so it's hard to say.

[SpillOnAisle9]

you really shouldn't trust those target prices lol
i mean they haven't actually released their earnings yet until it's out it's all speculation.

personally given that it expects at least a 11% drop in eps due to lower demand a 14% drop on the first day is reasonable.
however they plan to release new phones later in the year...so it's hard to say.

According to my Wood Gundy guy we're waiting on Citigroup to downgrade RIM....once that happens it's a sure bet to go long
as historically stocks always go opposite to Citi's sentiment (half-joking here but he's seen it countless times ;))

[Jon Lai]

Holy mackerel... when was the last time Gold posted a $35 daily gain?

[can2000]

Holy mackerel... when was the last time Gold posted a $35 daily gain?

Gold up a lot, but gold stocks just nearly reach yesterday's high somehow.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I'm LONG these stocks: SU.TO, UPL, CHK, INTC, CLNE, VSH, PMG.TO, ECA.TO, HUM, MRO, CI, CSX, VLO, ADI, AVGO

1) Technology (ICs, Broad Line)
2) Transportation/Infrastructure
3) Energy (Integrated Oil & Gas + Refiners)

I've been roughly following my strategy by selecting Technology, Health Care, and Energy stocks to outperform the market :razz: I decided to include a few Canadian equities (I'm equal weight on ECA.TO, but overweight on PMG.TO and SU.TO) ;)

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Forgot to mention, I have CSCO and RIM.TO on my watch list. I may buy CSCO if it breaks through the $18 barrier. And I'm waiting for RIM.TO to decline to about $36-40 range before I contemplate purchasing any shares. :D

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Stocks are expected to rise because of the Bin Laden news late Sunday. A lot of earning reports are due this week as well, which will add to the volatility of the market. Expect a modest broad market correction if economic/job reports are disappointing... Now would be a smart/apt time to starting taking some profits on long positions ;)

There's no point in going for a ride on a market correction especially when you can probably buy the stocks at a cheaper price later or invest in an accelerating sector/industry.

[xlfe]

where's jon lai? i was expecting him to comment on the uranium prices lol.

@Terrific_Deals2k8
opps missed your stock picks... grr guess i'll have a 1 day advantage on you rofl
but i'll use opening prices for tomorrow so 3-7.

[Jon Lai]

where's jon lai? i was expecting him to comment on the uranium prices lol.

@Terrific_Deals2k8
opps missed your stock picks... grr guess i'll have a 1 day advantage on you rofl
but i'll use opening prices for tomorrow so 3-7.

I'm back in school so I won't have time to keep a close look on the market as I did in the past :lol:

Not only UUU, but my Manulife is up 3% today. Definitely didn't expect that.

Lots of volatility in UUU today though...

[xlfe]

I'm LONG these stocks: SU.TO, UPL, CHK, INTC, CLNE, VSH, PMG.TO, ECA.TO, HUM, MRO, CI, CSX, VLO, ADI, AVGO


i would predict in a week an up on su.to, eca.to, hum, csx, vlo
down on clne, ci and chk ( i guess im shorting energy heh)
and rest i see as neutral.

[can2000]

uuu 4.22 0.17 (4.20%)

but gold stocks dive.

[Jon Lai]

uuu 4.22 0.17 (4.20%)

but gold stocks dive.

And silver.

Uranium is the new gold. LOL jk.

[r1lee]

And silver.

Uranium is the new gold. LOL jk.

I guess here's the pullback on silver...

[xlfe]

anybody selling their uranium?
i'm not cuz i'm a greedy boy.

[pipolchap]

anybody selling their uranium?
i'm not cuz i'm a greedy boy.

+1 lol!

also, I don't see bettter alternatives to place my money in.

[Jon Lai]

+1 lol!

also, I don't see bettter alternatives to place my money in.

Exactly. I might've put it in silver if UUU inched up a week ago. Glad it didn't :lol:

[can2000]

uuu 4.33 0.28 (6.91%)

updated:
4.40 0.35 (8.64%)

[blainehamilton]

Sold 150oz of silver yesterday afternoon. Took $45 an oz when spot was just over $47. It promptly went into the toilet again after that.

Gonna sit on the rest to see if a dead cat bounce happens, otherwise I am out at $40 for the rest.

[7jai]

perfect timing to buy uranium... bought 8000 shares of MGA.TO when it bottomed to 0.51. Shot up to 0.55 over the past two days... *whew*

I want to see this bad boy go up to 0.60, then sell! lol

There must be some demand for uranium now - i wonder when they will go back to their normal prices? :lol:

[tng11]

Good grief, I got rid of 1/2 of my position in UUU at $4.03 yesterday with a profit of 10% as I was reducing the leverage in my portfolio. Now it's up to $4.32. :facepalm: Then on the other side, my solar stocks got hammered after a decent rally last week.

[pipolchap]

Good grief, I got rid of 1/2 of my position in UUU at $4.03 yesterday with a profit of 10% as I was reducing the leverage in my portfolio. Now it's up to $4.32. :facepalm: Then on the other side, my solar stocks got hammered after a decent rally last week.

At least your 10% is realized, which is not too shabby. I have a 27% gain right now on UUU, but that can change at any moment.

Since this is in my TFSA/vacation account and I'm not going anywhere any time soon, I'm not cashing out. :)

[Asoul]

Damn! I had some extra cash last week and invested in mining, wished I had bought some more Cameco.

[Jon Lai]

UUU closed at 4.20 today, down a bit from the high of 4.40

Not sure how to interpret this, the drop mid afternoon was much less in volume than the trend up early in the morning, so I'm hoping this is just a regular dip after being up almost 10%. Might also be people shorting it as well. Market tried to pick it back up in the later hour but it didn't bring it back up too far.

I still have 100% of my long position. I think it'll reach at least 4.50 before any additional hiccups in the uptrend.

On another note, MFC is on crack. Went up 3% yesterday and down 4% today. Can't say I'm happy about that, especially since I bought before the earthquake :facepalm:

[DanP]

On another note, MFC is on crack. Went up 3% yesterday and down 4% today. Can't say I'm happy about that, especially since I bought before the earthquake :facepalm:

I'm pretty sure MFC's been on crack for some time. The last 2 days have happened numerous times to that stock and everytime, i have no idea why it happeend.

[Sheky]

UUU closed at 4.20 today, down a bit from the high of 4.40

Not sure how to interpret this, the drop mid afternoon was much less in volume than the trend up early in the morning, so I'm hoping this is just a regular dip after being up almost 10%. Might also be people shorting it as well. Market tried to pick it back up in the later hour but it didn't bring it back up too far.

I still have 100% of my long position. I think it'll reach at least 4.50 before any additional hiccups in the uptrend.

I'm still holding mine. Lots of bullish signs given how weak the TSX was today. Higher than avg vol on the price increase and closed above the 200 day. It's trying to complete the Adam and Eve to $4.50. I think people are just profit taking with the slight pull back since the high of the day hit to top of the Keltner band.

[Sheky]

I'm pretty sure MFC's been on crack for some time. The last 2 days have happened numerous times to that stock and everytime, i have no idea why it happeend.

Earnings coming out Thursday. Probably just people taking their positions.

[pipolchap]

I've had bad experiences with mfc. Until they change management, I'm not touching them.

[7jai]

come on Uranium! time for you guys to shine!

[bomba]

ugh... the last three days I've been getting bled out slowly and painfully!

[coleworld]

silver.... poor mans gold

[blainehamilton]

silver.... poor mans gold


Sold the rest of my silver lot for $40 an oz. Wow, such a hit from 10 days ago. Still made out well for an 18 month investment...


I'm sitting back with cash for a bit.

[can2000]

UUU and K shine again.

[can2000]

sold half uuu at 4.44$

[xlfe]

im feeling optimistic about uranium, well more so than before.
though a lot of uranium stocks seem to be dropping it seems when they rise they rise pretty fast.

i would predict a quick rise then a gradual rise with lots of volatility.

i'm still down over 15% on my uranium stocks, i owned them before the disaster and did some averaging down.
but i can see my stocks doubling in 1-2 years.

td and ry are at week lows, those would be my safe plays.
but i'm not feeling the financial institution right now
maybe it's the paranoia or the expectation for things to continue down...

[kingrukus]

I am going on a gamble here and going to say that TIM is going to hit 0.80 by the end of the year. Anyone up for a gamble?

[xlfe]

I am going on a gamble here and going to say that TIM is going to hit 0.80 by the end of the year. Anyone up for a gamble?

so you would bet that it'll rise above it's 52 week high which would be almost double it's current price lol
looking at it's past history it's not a profitable company.

not going to dwell into the company, feel free to do so
but negative gross margin kind of worries me.
they're probably have problems financing larger operations to produce high grade silicon for solar panels

as a long term bet i might consider it, but within a year most definitely not.

but i see some analysts rate it a 1.00 so who knows.
but over 30 in 2008?

interesting little penny stock your interested in.

[Jon Lai]

Gonna keep holding my UUU until at least Friday. Looks like there's still lots of interest and I can see it hitting at least 4.50 if not 4.60 or higher.

[Crinkle_cut]

Just sold my HND for a 3% gain at 6.21

Man it took a while to go up, but commodities literally are down huge today!

[runeash]

What are casual folks (I am assuming you are not a day trader) generally using these days for trading ie bank/brokerage considering the ups/down resulting in frequency of trading ie commission fees.

Just sold my HND for a 3% gain at 6.21

Man it took a while to go up, but commodities literally are down huge today!

[Crinkle_cut]

What are casual folks (I am assuming you are not a day trader) generally using these days for trading ie bank/brokerage considering the ups/down resulting in frequency of trading ie commission fees.

Well commission fees are $4-9 using Questrade, so they become a non-factor.

I bought it a while back at 8 and a bit, then it dropped even further to like $7.30. Made me slightly regret buying, but wasn't going to sell for a loss, then it shot back up in one day. Then sold for 8.21, which was too early, but whatever.

[7jai]

you guys should look at Citigroup tmrw... they are going to be reverse splitting 1 to 10 by the close of Friday... Lots of talk about them tanking alot because of it. Could be an opportunity to buy some PUT options, or short calls. But you gotta be quick about it, and not be too emotionally attached + greedy lol

Just a heads up :)

[Crinkle_cut]

Bought HZD (Silver Bear) at 6.93 a share.

We'll see if this was a good buy or not. Gonna roll with the market, lol.

[Crinkle_cut]

Just sold HZD at 7.37 a share.

Quick price drop though, cause when i was filling in the order it said 7.40. Oh well I'll take it. Quick $500 gain.

[Shaf]

you guys should look at Citigroup tmrw... they are going to be reverse splitting 1 to 10 by the close of Friday... Lots of talk about them tanking alot because of it. Could be an opportunity to buy some PUT options, or short calls. But you gotta be quick about it, and not be too emotionally attached + greedy lol

Just a heads up :)

What if I already own C? Should I sell now? I bought at $1.60 during the recession....

[adamtheman]

Silver was an absolute train wreck again today, down 12% again. I was tracking NYSE:SLV (iShares Silver ETF). I watched it drop another $0.45 in the last 30 minutes before the market closed. Ended up closing at $33.72, but that didn't stop the bleeding, as after-hours trading has it down to $33.50 and still nose-diving. My guess is the bleeding still isn't done, and tomorrow will continue to be another sell off. We could see silver drop below $30 tomorrow. I will be looking to buy silver if it hits the $26 range, as I then expect it to dip upwards, to around $39-40.

[Jon Lai]

Talk about tank... and it's not even a Tuesday...

[Stryker]

Still patiently waiting. If you're not into commodities, I don't see much in the market to get excited about. Most (not all) of the stocks on my watch list seem to be still near 52 week highs.

[Little Tim]

I was panic buying gold today...

[Crinkle_cut]

Silver was an absolute train wreck again today, down 12% again. I was tracking NYSE:SLV (iShares Silver ETF). I watched it drop another $0.45 in the last 30 minutes before the market closed. Ended up closing at $33.72, but that didn't stop the bleeding, as after-hours trading has it down to $33.50 and still nose-diving. My guess is the bleeding still isn't done, and tomorrow will continue to be another sell off. We could see silver drop below $30 tomorrow. I will be looking to buy silver if it hits the $26 range, as I then expect it to dip upwards, to around $39-40.

Interesting take on Silver. I think I'll observe what happens tommorrow, and debate whether to get in on HZD again.

Then get out at end of day.

Like you, once it goes below $30, I dont mind buying it.

Do you think SLV or HZU is better for when buying silver?

[xlfe]

bearish trend on rim despite the good news

i predict a bounce tomorrow on the tsx.
silver probably won't dip another 10% and hit 30. i mean actual silver not the silver etf.

pretty awful day for uranium
seems like confidence is just not there
likely to go down but recover in a week.

as predicted there was a movement to safety.

@terrific
i was right about shorting energy aha
looks like i'll still be able to maintain my high down prediction score.
however my up prediction so far is 100% wrong lol but that's before adjusting with tsx or sp

[nyxeus]

Still patiently waiting. If you're not into commodities, I don't see much in the market to get excited about. Most (not all) of the stocks on my watch list seem to be still near 52 week highs.

+1

Same here. The Dow is still high and I am waiting for more pullbacks like today. However, I have to admit I am very surprise for the huge pullbacks for silver, gold and oil in just a couple of days. Most people I know are very unhappy in the last couple days with their investments in commodities. Not to mention some already took a lost with all the uranium related stocks not too long ago. Is it really true that May is always bad for the market. It's almost like a replay of what happened in 2010.

[adamtheman]

Interesting take on Silver. I think I'll observe what happens tommorrow, and debate whether to get in on HZD again.

Then get out at end of day.

Like you, once it goes below $30, I dont mind buying it.

Do you think SLV or HZU is better for when buying silver?

HZU is a leveraged 2x ETF. In other words, it tries to track at 200%. So if the spot price of silver goes up 10%, your fund should technically go up around 20%. But if the spot price of silver goes down 10%, you will lose 20%. Essentially, you are gambling with money you don't have (it would be no different than taking out a loan and investing in stocks). This offers better potential for day trading but more risk. Either fund is fine, as long as you are aware of this and also how the price of currency affects funds (CDN vs USD)

[Jon Lai]

Gold and oil is mildly bouncing back up already in after hours. Silver is still trending down though. Will it really reach $30? Hmm...

[Crinkle_cut]

Just bought HZD again at 7.37

I'll wait till lunch, to determine what my next move is.
=s

This is looking like a bad buy. haha.

Dang it trended down real quick. Just sold it at 6.99

=s

5% loss in 5 mins.

[Crinkle_cut]

Ok I'm just too jittery and jumpy. I know I defied logic, bought back in at 7.13 once I saw the trend reversing.

Now I will literally wait until lunch.

If I lose 10% so be it.

Sometimes I dont think I have the ball$ to buy these stocks, lol. Cause I can't handle the volatility when it works against me.

[Jon Lai]

Gah.. I was expecting a couple percent increase in UUU today...

[xlfe]

Ok I'm just too jittery and jumpy. I know I defied logic, bought back in at 7.13 once I saw the trend reversing.

Now I will literally wait until lunch.

If I lose 10% so be it.

Sometimes I dont think I have the ball$ to buy these stocks, lol. Cause I can't handle the volatility when it works against me.

i have to admit i was planning on buying silver... but i woke up late and it went up 5% already so i was bummed about that. so i did the logical thing and bought some hzd got in at 6.93 and 6.83 currently at 7.30
so this is what making quick money feels like... i forgot how that felt lol
already cashed half of it out so even if it drops 10% i'll just be even.

[Crinkle_cut]

i have to admit i was planning on buying silver... but i woke up late and it went up 5% already so i was bummed about that. so i did the logical thing and bought some hzd got in at 6.93 and 6.83 currently at 7.30
so this is what making quick money feels like... i forgot how that felt lol
already cashed half of it out so even if it drops 10% i'll just be even.

Nice! Yup, this is how I felt yesterday. Not so much today, hahahaha

[plucky duck]

lol that's nothing wait til you get into options where your investments can range from losing everything in less than a day to being up 10x in the same day if you can capture the moment. 50% ups and downs in options are not out of the ordinary.

[Jon Lai]

Oil's down another $3 today after a short rebound early morning. I'm really surprised it's down so much, though I'm not complaining. The fundamentals haven't really changed IMO...

[chinaboy1021]

what is HZD? It reverse-mirrors silver spot price??

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I'm LONG these stocks: SU.TO, UPL, CHK, INTC, CLNE, VSH, PMG.TO, ECA.TO, HUM, MRO, CI, CSX, VLO, ADI, AVGO

SU.TO -7.4%
CHK -8.7%
INTC 1.0%
UPL -9.8%
CLNE -9.5%
VSH -12.2%
PMG.TO -10.3%
ECA.TO -0.8%
HUM 0.5%
MRO -8.4%
CI -0.6%
CSX -1.0%
VLO -5.7%
ADI 0.0%
AVGO 3.5%

53% BELOW S&P 500's weekly average
47% ABOVE S&P 500's weekly average

Average loss -4.63% versus -1.83% from the S&P 500 index.

Summary: energy sector really took a beating this week, which is aptly reflected in the results. Thank godness I didn't actually buy any energy stocks in my real portfolio, although I did consider BUYING either CHK or UPL on Monday if they had broken-out above a bearish resistance line.

Lesson: Don't try to catch a falling knife, especially if the market begins to show signs of weakness.

Prediction (next week): I'm expecting the major indices to show signs of lackluster performance as we near a critical resistance point on the S&P (1400). MACD and RSI are both shifting downward even as the index is maintaining a relatively high price level, which signals a divergance within the market. Furthermore, today's job report was better than expected, yet the major indices ONLY inched up slightly from the previous day. Consequently, there appears to be considerable downside pressure, evident in the UPWARD movement early in the day (i.e. profit taking), but LOWER close (selling).

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Sold my shares in IXYS @ $15.55 this week for a total ROI of 32.3%. Bought shares of MSFT @ $26.20, but there is considerable downside pressure so I'm looking to sell early next week if there is an uptick and close my position with a small loss.

I'll be setting a stop loss on my Intel position at ~$22.70 to secure a gain in case of a downward trend. There appears to be an inverse V shape forming on its daily chart, so I'll probably stick to the safe side. But, I still like the company's prospect, product lines, and fundamental value, so I'll be adding it to my watch list and re-enter if/when a correction takes place.

I'll also be setting a stop loss on my Medtronic position, but it is still performing relatively well compared to the overall market weakness, which is a good sign. However, I would rather be safe and lock in profits if/when the market decides to correct.

Market Outlook: S&P 500 will correct to the 1250-1260 level by the end of summer (mid-August / early-Sept 2011).

[Jon Lai]

what is HZD? It reverse-mirrors silver spot price??

Not only that, but it doubles the reverse silver spot price, minus administrative fees.

[xlfe]

su.to -7.55%
eca.to -1.63%
hum 1.01%
csx 0.52%
vlo -4.29%
-2.39%

clne 7.18%
ci -0.99%
chk 3.73%
3.31%



net loss (-0.25%) vs (-1.44%) on sp 500 and (-2.48%) on tse

predictions right 4/8 = 50%
adjusted for sp/tse 6/8 = 75%
overall prediction score including all previous 70% (2)

i even said i was shorting energy but i didn't go through which ones were actually energy lol
also results are based off of 4 days not 5.

i'm not particularly positive towards any sector right now. maybe except agriculture.

[chinaboy1021]

On my RBC account, it shows that UUU ticker switched to PINK: SXRZF

What is with this??

[Canuckerr]

Is anyone thinking of buying Citigroup?
They're trading at under $5. I've been watching them for awhile and it just seems like in time they might get back to where they were?

Or is this foolish?
I was thinking of dumping about $1000 into them and seeing where it goes.
Or does this sound like a waste of $1000?

Thanks.

[Canuckerr]

Hey guys, for the long term is UUU.TO a good investment?

You guys have been talking about it a lot, but you guys seem to be trading it pretty fast.

[xlfe]

about citi
you mean back to 2008 levels? very unlikely to any time soon.
i mean it got sent back to the stone age... 1994 levels.

however it's making money now i would expect at most 20% in a year tops
and that's given there's nothing to worry about about wtih the us financial system.

it's pretty much a bet, your betting the system won't screw up again.

[Jon Lai]

Hey guys, for the long term is UUU.TO a good investment?

You guys have been talking about it a lot, but you guys seem to be trading it pretty fast.

UUU is a highly volatile stock and while most of us here are long on it, we're greedy so we tend to try and profit from the volatility on the way there.

[blainehamilton]

Sold my shares in IXYS @ $15.55 this week for a total ROI of 32.3%. Bought shares of MSFT @ $26.20, but there is considerable downside pressure so I'm looking to sell early next week if there is an uptick and close my position with a small loss.

I'll be setting a stop loss on my Intel position at ~$22.70 to secure a gain in case of a downward trend. There appears to be an inverse V shape forming on its daily chart, so I'll probably stick to the safe side. But, I still like the company's prospect, product lines, and fundamental value, so I'll be adding it to my watch list and re-enter if/when a correction takes place.

I'll also be setting a stop loss on my Medtronic position, but it is still performing relatively well compared to the overall market weakness, which is a good sign. However, I would rather be safe and lock in profits if/when the market decides to correct.

Market Outlook: S&P 500 will correct to the 1250-1260 level by the end of summer (mid-August / early-Sept 2011).


I've gone to mostly cash for the summer. See you all in September!

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I'm LONG: MDT, CLNE, MR, TGT (next week, just for fun, I'm trying to predict outperformers in a downward cycle... lol)
I'm SHORT: NUAN, MU, LSCC, AMRC, TSM, WFMI, TTMI, GIB (next week)

[hagbard]

Both, that's what makes me such a terrific investor. ;)

[Stryker]

Hey guys, for the long term is UUU.TO a good investment?

You guys have been talking about it a lot, but you guys seem to be trading it pretty fast.

It hasn't made a profit in any of the last ten years. Ten years ago the company had 6 mil. common shares outstanding, now according to Morningstar it's up to 612 mil., which means each share is worth less year by year. If you're searching for a good long term stock investment, I'd be looking elsewhere.

[xlfe]

predictions from may 9 - 13
up mdt, mr, ttmi

short clne, nuan, mu, lscc, amrc, wfmi

[Jon Lai]

Anyone still long on silver?

Plans on buying back into commodities? HOU and HZU?

[BenK]

Anyone still long on silver?

Plans on buying back into commodities? HOU and HZU?

I bought in on Friday, not as big of a position as before, but now holding HUZ. I held onto my miners through the rough patch -_-, still net green but hopefully I make back up some of those losses in the last week. Also holding ECA and ARG

[xlfe]

i'm long on silver stocks
and i'm long on uranium so today is looking to be a good day for both.

rim is down as expected.

[Mark77]

Picked up a bunch of SSO/SSRI at 29.39 today... Earnings tomorrow!

[xlfe]

i love how just when you say that the price of it goes up :lol:

my silver stocks are doing well, still own some hzd incase it falls back.
if it does it works for me, i get to sell hzd and buy more silver aha

i heard the gold:silver ratio is going to drop so everything is kind of pointing towards a rise in silver...

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

To buy or not to buy?... That is the question/

[BenK]

i heard the gold:silver ratio is going to drop so everything is kind of pointing towards a rise in silver...


I have a friend who believes in this theory so he's long on SLV and short on GLD. It's an interesting and safer play I guess.

[T3NSION]

Been eying urz for a long term uranium hold

[chinaboy1021]

Im riding the silver bullet with AGQ again.....:cheesygri

Can somebody tell me why ppl hold physical silver as opposed to paper silver? I had thought it was because paper silver can crash or deflate considering they are not backed completely by full inventory of physical silver...Can somebody give an example of an economic/market situation or a regulatory situation where paper silver would instantly deflate faster than spot silver??

Also while on the topic, I don't understand why people do not play leveraged (200%) silver, unless the reason being fear of downside risk. Wouldn't the losses be offset by the gains made earlier??

[xlfe]

looks like silver is up in the premarket...
if it goes up too fast going to load up more hzd.

disclaimer, an inverse double leveraged etf on silver is extremely risky.

[BenK]

Im riding the silver bullet with AGQ again.....:cheesygri

Can somebody tell me why ppl hold physical silver as opposed to paper silver? I had thought it was because paper silver can crash or deflate considering they are not backed completely by full inventory of physical silver...Can somebody give an example of an economic/market situation or a regulatory situation where paper silver would instantly deflate faster than spot silver??

Also while on the topic, I don't understand why people do not play leveraged (200%) silver, unless the reason being fear of downside risk. Wouldn't the losses be offset by the gains made earlier??

There's a high expense/mgmt fee. So think of it this way. When the commodity goes up, you earn 199%, when the commodity goes down, you lose 201%. If the commodity does not change value at all, you lose 1%.

[Jon Lai]

And RIM continues to tank... Thinking to pick some up at $40 :lol:

[xlfe]

oh man i just had a heart attack.
i held hzu overnight and this morning it went from like 34 to 11 so all i see on my account is like.. you lost 60% rofl
it didn't even make any sense given silver prices.

hzu did a 3:1 split, so i technically can't sell my units i haven't received yet.
should get them on the 12th.

[blainehamilton]

And RIM continues to tank... Thinking to pick some up at $40 :lol:


$10. Playbook is a flop, and they spent a ton of $$$ developing and marketing it. It was rushed to market with poor software and Blackberry is going to pay the price for it.

Plus Blackberry devices don't have the stranglehold on the business market anymore either.

Expect them to be in the same place as Nokia in about 6-12 months.


Silver and Gold are clawing their way back towards the $40/$1520 mark. Might be more steam in that train yet...

[Canuckerr]

Does anyone have experience with selling short?
Can you still do that?
I bank with TD, so if anyone has any experience on how to set that up would be great.
Thanks!

[tng11]

Got murdered on PDL today, on what otherwise would have been a fantastic green day.

[BenK]

Got murdered on PDL today, on what otherwise would have been a fantastic green day.

wow............................................... ..

[charliebrown]

$10. Playbook is a flop, and they spent a ton of $$$ developing and marketing it. It was rushed to market with poor software and Blackberry is going to pay the price for it.

Plus Blackberry devices don't have the stranglehold on the business market anymore either.

Expect them to be in the same place as Nokia in about 6-12 months.



Quite the bounce from intra-day low below $44 -- finally a reversal?

[xlfe]

pdl, was reading their report

so it actually costs them 1991 USD per ounce of gold to mine.
and plans to reduce the amount mined next year which will probably increase cost even more...

just wow...
read a research report from them provided by my bank

http://www.mediafire.com/?a6ih8ijkv8cfm54

from a top pick to sector perform
painful

[chinaboy1021]

How do you get those reports from RBC?? Do they have the same reports on other companies??

I got a RBC direct investing account, but never found out where all the value-added stuff was...

[xlfe]

they don't have it for every company, just i guess the more popular or upcoming ones.

to get to it you pick a stock and under the price there should be something called "rbc research", it opens up a new window and you can see what's been posted recently or search for a specific company.

a direct link is https://research.multex.royalbank.com/RIS/control/control.asp

you have to be logged in to access it.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I'm LONG on: MR, PWER, TGT, and CSCO

[Jon Lai]

$10. Playbook is a flop, and they spent a ton of $$$ developing and marketing it. It was rushed to market with poor software and Blackberry is going to pay the price for it.

Plus Blackberry devices don't have the stranglehold on the business market anymore either.

Playbook sucks on many areas, but like BB's, people swear by them. Their brand loyalty isn't quite as high as Apple's, but it's higher than a typical company. I don't see them going the way of Nokia anytime soon.

That said, their company is going downhill. If I buy it, it'd only be for a technical rebound.

[kashirin]

Playbook sucks on many areas, but like BB's, people swear by them. Their brand loyalty isn't quite as high as Apple's, but it's higher than a typical company. I don't see them going the way of Nokia anytime soon.

That said, their company is going downhill. If I buy it, it'd only be for a technical rebound.

Brand loyalty will allow RIMM to stay around $8-10 and avoid bankruptcy. IN the current world the market share leader takes all. ANd currently it's Android. o even apple is in danger and that's why their share price doesn't move despite cheap valuation

Rim looked unstoppable in 2006 but in 2007 apple announced their Iphone. So rim still grew for 3-4 years but now it looks cracked. The same is for apple they have another 2-3-4 years but if they can't gain market share above android they are toast long term

[xlfe]

got pretty close to cashing in my hzd but decided to buy hzu instead.

uuu missed expected eps yet it's still up (nvm just went down)
other uranium producers are down.. eg cco

may be because japan decided to not only rely on nuclear power.
who knows.

[Crinkle_cut]

Uranium is down because Japan announced that they cancelled plans to be increase their proportion of nuclear energy to 50% from their current portfolio weight of 30%.

Therefore, when Japan first announced their plans to grow nuclear energy for their country, companies and analysts forecast this into the demand of uranium. Now that they will no longer need 67% more uranium than they currently use, this would definitely effect the markets.

[blainehamilton]

PDL has room to fall further. Possibly a good buy in under $2.

Uranium producers are a NO-Touch item for me now. So glad I didn't buy in a couple of weeks ago. Long term growth has potential. I'm going to wait until this fall / next year to consider.

Rim will stay afloat for many more years. Many companies will continue to use their products, but as other smartphone platforms gain popularity, their market will get smaller. That's why I wouldn't touch them right now. Playbook debacle and shrinking market share means sub $10 stock price to me.

AAPL is close to their plateau. MSFT has no future product for revenue growth. I wouldn't touch the other dot-bombs in waiting either. Facebook and Google are ripe for returns to more reasonable levels soon. And when that happens, everything else is going to get dragged down along with it.

I'm sitting out the next few hands until fall.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Commodities related stocks (i.e. miners, drillers, integrated oil, refiners, etc...) were murdered today. Another blood bath, thank god I've mostly avoided the commodity mess, except a breakeven purchase in Kinross gold. Took my profits from silver a long a couple months ago; not really regretting my decision given the volatility in the sector(s).

[Jon Lai]

Can't believe UUU broke $4 :( Can't believe I didn't sell at $4.44 :(

[Stryker]

Commodities related stocks (i.e. miners, drillers, integrated oil, refiners, etc...) were murdered today. Another blood bath, thank god I've mostly avoided the commodity mess, except a breakeven purchase in Kinross gold. Took my profits from silver a long a couple months ago; not really regretting my decision given the volatility in the sector(s).

Not Akita Drilling. Up 5 cents yesterday. Long term hold. Bought it after the BP disaster when the Lemmings were running the other way. It even pays me a nice dividend yield while I wait.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Not Akita Drilling. Up 5 cents yesterday. Long term hold. Bought it after the BP disaster when the Lemmings were running the other way. It even pays me a nice dividend yield while I wait.

Nice micro-cap stock. I tend to focus more on small or mid caps with a few expections to undervalued large caps

[Mark77]

Commodities related stocks (i.e. miners, drillers, integrated oil, refiners, etc...) were murdered today. Another blood bath, thank god I've mostly avoided the commodity mess, except a breakeven purchase in Kinross gold. Took my profits from silver a long a couple months ago; not really regretting my decision given the volatility in the sector(s).

A little silly to be selling, eh? All I see is the price continues to increase at the pump, and the price of gold has barely gone down. Silver, sure, its come down, but not by all that much. Commodity stocks are hardly a 'mess', and I continue to accumulate quality stocks in the sector.

Volatility is your friend. Risk (ie: volatility) = reward.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

A little silly to be selling, eh? All I see is the price continues to increase at the pump, and the price of gold has barely gone down. Silver, sure, its come down, but not by all that much. Commodity stocks are hardly a 'mess', and I continue to accumulate quality stocks in the sector.

Volatility is your friend. Risk (ie: volatility) = reward.

High risk, high returns = roulette
Low risk, moderate returns = investment

[7jai]

I hope people took my suggestion pre-reverse split in shorting / placed PUT options on Citigroup? It's down to $42's now :lol:

[7jai]

I hope people took my suggestion pre-reverse split in shorting / placed PUT options on Citigroup? It's down to $42's now :lol:

oops correction, it is now at $41's pre-market trading :lol:

[akib99]

Hopefully the market picks up soon... Otherwise my timing for starting to buy stocks was horrible...

[7jai]

Hopefully the market picks up soon... Otherwise my timing for starting to buy stocks was horrible...

I would hold-off on buying for now. the market is overly bought, and there have been negative reports coming from the economy in itself.... i would wait and see how things go before buying.

[Si98]

Hopefully the market picks up soon... Otherwise my timing for starting to buy stocks was horrible...

Too bad you didn't start 2 years ago. Everybody including their grandma and dog could have made some decent coin. I think its going to be a bear market for awhile. Hope I'm wrong. :cry:

[tng11]

I hope people took my suggestion pre-reverse split in shorting / placed PUT options on Citigroup? It's down to $42's now :lol:
Ashamed to admit it, but I bought a sizable amount of the $4 June puts at $0.03. It has more than doubled and a nice way to soften the blow I took these last few days.

[7jai]

Ashamed to admit it, but I bought a sizable amount of the $4 June puts at $0.03. It has more than doubled and a nice way to soften the blow I took these last few days.

haha nice stuff man! no reason to be ashamed since ur making the major $$$$ ;)

but yeh, hold on tight, it's gonna go down a bit more before it shoots back up (possibly to $39). Vikram is a shady b4stard... i know what he's trying to do. drive down share price buy reverse splitting, then buyback shares at the low points to shoot the stock back up once he announces it.

Once that happens, then they will start dishing out dividends again next year lol. i've been analyzing this stock for close to 2 years now.. so i'm very determined to make major coinage from this baby lol

[kingrukus]

Call me foolish, but I am still very bullish on uranium. Awesome opportunity to score some cheap shares today in your favourite producer. Unfortunately most people's outlook are 1 to 3 days, rather than 1 to 3 years. I am confident we will see UUU at over 7 by end of year. Just because Japan has announced they will not expand, but still keep at the consumption of u3o8, doesn't mean the rest of the world plans for the same. Buy on fear, thats what I have always said.

And as I said before, keep your eyes on TIM. I am still looking at it to double from where it currently is by end of year.

RIM is going to continue to lose marketshare - no where to go but down unfortunately.

I am going to try and get into Citi sometime later this summer when things are quite flat.

[xlfe]

anybody else follow silver's movement today....
nice little rebound but early morning down another 8% that was madness

[Jon Lai]

Call me foolish, but I am still very bullish on uranium. Awesome opportunity to score some cheap shares today in your favourite producer. Unfortunately most people's outlook are 1 to 3 days, rather than 1 to 3 years. I am confident we will see UUU at over 7 by end of year. Just because Japan has announced they will not expand, but still keep at the consumption of u3o8, doesn't mean the rest of the world plans for the same. Buy on fear, thats what I have always said.

And as I said before, keep your eyes on TIM. I am still looking at it to double from where it currently is by end of year.

RIM is going to continue to lose marketshare - no where to go but down unfortunately.

I am going to try and get into Citi sometime later this summer when things are quite flat.

I'm with you, unfortunately I have no cash to buy more UUU at today's steal price.

[DanP]

it's almost time to look at Rim again my world....

[gwu]

I'm with you, unfortunately I have no cash to buy more UUU at today's steal price.

But would you go only UUU, or some CCO and DML with that?

[xlfe]

it's almost time to look at Rim again my world....

i don't really watch the tech stocks but i was interested in rim
i heard that to buy aapl is really like shorting rim.

hmm looks like all the good tech stocks are down today :lol:

[xlfe]

mdt -1.08%
mr 9.58%
ttmi 1.33%

clne 10.27%
nuan -5.69%
mu 4.04%
lscc -2.71%
amrc -1.46%
wfmi -1.86%


average gain 1.38%

predictions right 4/9 = 44%
adjusted 5/10 = 44%

overall score 61.5% (3)

[Jon Lai]

Augh, bloodbath everywhere. I think I'm dying. Even my usually well off MF portfolio is net red now :(

[monty613]

"sell in May and go away"

[ACC-Major]

"sell in May and go away"

Happened last year too. But if you sold in may 2009, then yeah.

Anyways, when do we come back after selling May?

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Happened last year too. But if you sold in may 2009, then yeah.

Anyways, when do we come back after selling May?

Late summer (e.g. August/Sept). I've pretty much exited all my equity positions except for a couple healthcare related stocks. Nice tidy profits on IXYS, INTC, and BX. Still keeping MDT, ABT, and MR. Might trade ABT for AET or CI...
My current allocation is about 35% in equities, 40% in bonds, and 25% in cash.

[Thalo]

Did you know that the average retail investor who tries to time the market has historically managed to outperform a buy and hold investor by double?

Oh wait, I got that wrong, it's the other way around...

[seashell]

So guys where XIU is going? Do you think it can go down to $18?!! :!::!:

I have 100k in XIU and my portfolio was down $6000 last week .. Will that continue? Should I go out or continue? Gold and oil prices are down and this affected the market .. Will that continue?

Xlfe and Thalo .. What do you think?

[xlfe]

woah someone actually wants to know what i think lol, this is awesome.

on a purely technical basis i can't tell, i would guess the downtrend would continue since it doesn't seem that the index wants to get back up to it's previous levels.
if you sell your selling at the lowest it's ever been in 3 months.

i would say if you can live with a 6% loss and you have an alternative investment plan cut your losses.

you can look at commodity prices, employment, inflation, global economy...everything and not deduce if it'll rise or drop. however sentiment is that we're in a correction.

[blainehamilton]

Downward slide continues. Glad I cashed in. Now to sit back, watch the fireworks, and plan to pick up some long term bargains.

[Jon Lai]

Downward slide continues. Glad I cashed in. Now to sit back, watch the fireworks, and plan to pick up some long term bargains.

Should've totally cashed in on UUU when I had the chance. Totally regret it.

What's the bad news anyways? Or is it just trending down due to the sector? Volume is down a lot compared to what it was when it uptrended in the last two weeks.

[adamtheman]

So guys where XIU is going? Do you think it can go down to $18?!! :!::!:

I have 100k in XIU and my portfolio was down $6000 last week .. Will that continue? Should I go out or continue? Gold and oil prices are down and this affected the market .. Will that continue?

Xlfe and Thalo .. What do you think?

XIU is a long term fund, not a short term one. It is a "set it and forget it" fund. Honestly you shouldn't even be looking at the account. XIU will always perform well in the long run, as it consists of the S&P 60 on the TSX. These are the 60 largest companies in Canada, and if they are not doing well, then not much else is. Really, if XIU is dropping, any other investments are also dropping. It sounds like maybe you are in this for the short term in which case you would be much better off investing in something else. The best thing you can actually do is buy more XIU as it drops, because if you thought it was a good investment before, it is an even better investment now (6% cheaper).

[7jai]

Should've totally cashed in on UUU when I had the chance. Totally regret it.

What's the bad news anyways? Or is it just trending down due to the sector? Volume is down a lot compared to what it was when it uptrended in the last two weeks.

Uranium isn't in hot demand anymore - lots of negative publicity around it. China was planning to build many nuclear plants in their country these next few years, have now stopped all operations until proper plans are being placed to protect itself from any natural disasters (similar to what Japan was facing). Basically right now, demand is low, supply is high. Another thing is that Uranium typically sells for $70-80 per pound...because of this low demand and high supply, they are actually selling at roughly around $60 per pound. This price isn't sustainable for a lot of new companies that are mining for uranium, or producing/developing uranium products.... Alot of exploratory companies that hunt for Uranium are said to maybe be depleting because they aren't making enough to support their operations....

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Uranium isn't in hot demand anymore - lots of negative publicity around it. China was planning to build many nuclear plants in their country these next few years, have now stopped all operations until proper plans are being placed to protect itself from any natural disasters (similar to what Japan was facing). Basically right now, demand is low, supply is high. Another thing is that Uranium typically sells for $70-80 per pound...because of this low demand and high supply, they are actually selling at roughly around $60 per pound. This price isn't sustainable for a lot of new companies that are mining for uranium, or producing/developing uranium products.... Alot of exploratory companies that hunt for Uranium are said to maybe be depleting because they aren't making enough to support their operations....

Coal also will be declining b/c of enviro concerns. Nat gas will stay steady b/c govts don't want the price to skyrocket and there is plenty of supply to keep prices in the $4.5-$5.5 range for a long time. Wind energy seems quite efficient compared to solar, but there needs to be capex to further improve efficiencies and develop electricity storage/infrastructure. Solar has been underperforming for a long time, but I expect the sector to remain low b/c govt subsidies are expected to end and the cost VS benefit still doesn't fully justify mass market adoption.

However, a lot of this is hinged on the EPA and other govt agencies/regulators that may increase efficiency and/or enviro standards which would force a certain percentage of energy to come from these alternative sources. It seems that fuel cells/nat gas and wind energy are the most promising so far (i.e. low enviro pollution and lower risk than nuclear energy).

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Short term watch list: RBCN, MPWR, SOLR, LTXC, MOS, POT, STM, SNDK, QCOM, RIMM, INTC, SYNA
Long term watch list: GOOG, LDK, TSL, YGE, IDCC, CLNE, BRCM, MU, ENS, NVDA, AEIS, PWER, TSRA, ASMI

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Bought RIM call options today
Here's to hoping they report good earnings on June 16th and begin a road to recovery ;) :D

[webdoctors]

Bought RIM call options today
Here's to hoping they report good earnings on June 16th and begin a road to recovery ;) :D

Really mixed on RIM, it can go in two very different directions...and I don't see anything on their roadmap that'll help them improve, but they have good current technicals.

I'm currently holding, trying to recoup my losses on IGLD and CSCO (damn U John Chambers :| )

[7jai]

please uranium....please come "up" and play :(

[tng11]

please uranium....please come "up" and play :(

Hope so too... doubled down on UUU and hoping for the best.

It's been a disastrous 2 days for myself- down a solid 10% despite my huge win on C puts.

[xlfe]

uuu should be back up...the report wasn't that bad
plus as they said spot uranium should be going up.

it feels like the entire mining sector is just shaking out panicky short term traders.
or maybe it's just all part of the correction process.

my mind's been thinking about the us dollar.
it seems to be rising however i believe it'll be short lived.

[8)]

Bought LVS and will avg. down if necessary. Sony might also be a good buy since the psn debacle is over but i'm passing. good luck too all.

[lemailme]

OPMG
do your homework and get in earrrly tomorrow.

[7jai]

Hope so too... doubled down on UUU and hoping for the best.

It's been a disastrous 2 days for myself- down a solid 10% despite my huge win on C puts.

Yeh it stinks how Uranium is dragging along. I bought a few small cap uranium exploration companies, and they were already bottomed out when I bought them. Now, it's even MORE bottomed out.

C is the thing that's really keeping me in the positives lol I hope it continues to drop to Mid-High 30's. That's when I'm liquidating everything, and going to start researching on CALL options.

[Crinkle_cut]

Decided to split my one portfolio into two stocks. TD and Teck Cominco.

The other one I have split into PDN and TD. Damn PDN is still sinking, oh well.

These both should be pretty steady until August, when it's time to sell and get into more aggressive stuff, lol.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Short term watch list: RBCN, MPWR, SOLR, LTXC, MOS, POT, STM, SNDK, QCOM, RIMM, INTC, SYNA

Most of my short term picks are up by a fair margin ;) I'd like to revise the list by removing MOS, SNDK, and QCOM, while adding FCX, ONNN, and OVTI

[seashell]

It was a good day today .. will wait and won't sell!

[Jon Lai]

It was a good day today .. will wait and won't sell!

+1

I hope this indicates the correction is over...

[xlfe]

not too sure it is over, watching for a drop in silver today.

[zoltorg]

My best performing position (PLB) is up again today. Great company, great management.

PM me if you want to know the secret of their strategy.

[tng11]

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. This is the performance of my portfolio year to date: :facepalm:

http://i828.photobucket.com/albums/zz206/tng2011/Screenshot2011-05-19at83629PM.png

[akib99]

Well I regret buying Immunogen at $13.3.... Dropping to $12 today after they announced a PO....


Do stocks usually rebound quickly after this kind of drop?

[xlfe]

sometimes they do, i've seen companies do a secondary offering for a lower price and immediately the offering gets filled over a few days and the price drops till about that level...and should rise up back to normal.

however i saw the profit margins on that stock and just turned away :lol:
never followed the health sector much, i hear it's a safe long term play.

[akib99]

sometimes they do, i've seen companies do a secondary offering for a lower price and immediately the offering gets filled over a few days and the price drops till about that level...and should rise up back to normal.

however i saw the profit margins on that stock and just turned away :lol:
never followed the health sector much, i hear it's a safe long term play.


Yea, I probably should have done a bit more research, though I heard projections of $16 dollars or so. Anyways, this totally wiped out any progress made by Bell's recent upswing, and PFEs growth.

[xlfe]

well ya it's funny how that works cuz say you buy the share at 13 dollars and then like a little later they announce they will offer up some new shares at 12 bucks. people are going to use that as a baseline. so chances are in your favor that things will go up from 12.
however companies usually do these offerings when their stocks are high... so it's possible it can go either way.
but i would tend to think that if the offering is successful then it should go up more then 12.

a trick i use is it see when they actually receive the shares and sell before hand. because you also have to think of it in their view, they see this 13 dollar stock and say hey i can get in at 12, and when it comes out i'll just sell for 13. so sometimes about the time when they actually receive the stock watch for a drop.

on a side note... uranium stocks appear to be falling as well as spot price...

woah gold and silver is spiking
locking in shorts anything past prev close

was about to get out but seems like bears are winning

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Ok, I'm starting to hate myself for buying anything in this volatile market. I'll be selling all the remainder of my shares and options. The market has not been kind lately and I should've taken my own advice... Anyway, I'll be sitting on the sidelines for at least a couple of months until this "economic crisis/euro debt/commodity bubble" corrects itself. But will still be keeping an eye on the stocks on my watch list ;)

Btw, anyone here have any experience investing in US real estate? I've been reading a few books on the market etc... but any additional info would be greatly appreciated. Introductory online material would be great (e.g. financing, property/income taxes, utilities, et al). I'm mostly interested in the West Coast (WA & CA)

[Thalo]

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. This is the performance of my portfolio year to date: :facepalm:

http://i828.photobucket.com/albums/zz206/tng2011/Screenshot2011-05-19at83629PM.png

You should stick to mutual funds. I don't think there are any plain vanilla canadian or global funds/ETFs that are down that much YTD.

[blainehamilton]

Ok, I'm starting to hate myself for buying anything in this volatile market. I'll be selling all the remainder of my shares and options. The market has not been kind lately and I should've taken my own advice... Anyway, I'll be sitting on the sidelines for at least a couple of months until this "economic crisis/euro debt/commodity bubble" corrects itself. But will still be keeping an eye on the stocks on my watch list ;)

Btw, anyone here have any experience investing in US real estate? I've been reading a few books on the market etc... but any additional info would be greatly appreciated. Introductory online material would be great (e.g. financing, property/income taxes, utilities, et al). I'm mostly interested in the West Coast (WA & CA)


I'm in the same boat as you. Toying with the idea of property in the Vegas/Phoenix area.

Cheaper to buy than build there right now...

[cko64]

I'm in the same boat as you. Toying with the idea of property in the Vegas/Phoenix area.

Cheaper to buy than build there right now...
I just bought a house in Lake Las Vegas, closed yesterday. I learned a lot in the process such as Escrow, title insurance, home insurance, closing costs(who pays what), wire transfer, utility companies, HOA(s) etc...I still need to learn about the taxes yet. Overall, it was a positive experience. If you have any specific questions about Vegas such as locations; $/sq ft in certain areas; condotels vs condos vs house; investment vs vacation properties etc...I've been looking at Vegas since it started sliding in 2007.

[xlfe]

Ok, I'm starting to hate myself for buying anything in this volatile market. I'll be selling all the remainder of my shares and options. The market has not been kind lately and I should've taken my own advice... Anyway, I'll be sitting on the sidelines for at least a couple of months until this "economic crisis/euro debt/commodity bubble" corrects itself. But will still be keeping an eye on the stocks on my watch list ;)


safe play, my indicators suggest that the outlook in the short term is bad.
as well the tsx is slowly moving down, too early to say it's trending down but it's definitely weak.

what was the old saying... sell in may and go away? lol

[lemailme]

OPMG
do your homework and get in earrrly tomorrow.

I hope at least one person listened to me!

[7jai]

I don't think the stock market's gonna pick back up anytime soon - especially with the crisis in Europe getting worse, and the US still hasn't come to a consensus on raising their debt limit. In this type of environment, there are those who win a lot by shorting, and those who lose a lot by holding and longing...

The expression I would use with reference to the current stock market condition is this - "don't try and catch a falling knife. let it hit the ground first, and then pick it back up when it's safe."

I just re-increased my portfolio for US bank stocks (specifically citigroup) and purchased more PUT contract options. I believe they will drop to $37 before they even get a chance to go back up. Some even speculate a drop to low 30's before any quick gains back to their $50's.

[tng11]

Chinese solars (JASO, JKS, LDK, SOL, TSL, YGE) have taken a massive beating in the last 10 days or so, all my holdings that were 10%-20% in the green before last week are now anywhere from -10% to -20%. I'm still bullish on them long-term as it seems traders seem to follow short-term news and only negative news, such as focusing on Italy cutting subsidies while solar is growing significantly elsewhere. The dilemma I have is, I feel that they have a lot more room to fall, and I should buy back later when the market looks a little more rational.

[Cerenity]

i dont see governments across the world stopping their austerity measures any time soon, so its hard to get excited about solar, which relies so much on government subsidies.

[xlfe]

tsl catches my eye
will add that one to my watchlist.

i'll have to agree that it seems like there is a lot of room to drop.

[chinaboy1021]

Anybody here play short?? I just need a margin account, and we're good to go right??

[Thalo]

Anybody here play short?? I just need a margin account, and we're good to go right??

Yes, but also have a look at put options if that's the way you're gonna go. The potential losses on a short trade are unlimited (ie: let's say you shorted AAPL 10 years ago and just held on) but the potential losses on a put option are only what you pay for the contract (while upside potential can be a multiple).

[Jon Lai]

I can't believe I'm still holding onto UUU...

[xlfe]

still long on silver
stacked a bit more hzd because i believe prices to fall again tomorrow.

made a speculative play on ylo. got in at 4.12
hopefully it doesn't drop 10% tomorrow.
it suffered a 4% drop which caught my eye day before it's ex-dividend, i know it's a gamble.
pref and db are down 2-4%.
this was a decisive down with no news.

[Thalo]

Always, throughout history, the best thing to buy is what others are shunning (stocks, especially outside of Canada), and the best thing to sell is what others hold dear (gold, silver).

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Mos, brcm, solr, mpwr

[charliebrown]

still long on silver
stacked a bit more hzd because i believe prices to fall again tomorrow.

made a speculative play on ylo. got in at 4.12
hopefully it doesn't drop 10% tomorrow.
it suffered a 4% drop which caught my eye day before it's ex-dividend, i know it's a gamble.
pref and db are down 2-4%.
this was a decisive down with no news.
The c & d preferreds were down almost 15% at its lows today before gapping up. Pretty weird to see RATE RESET preferreds yieling 10+%

Hopefully they dont turn out to be a nortel or enron!

[Mark77]

Always, throughout history, the best thing to buy is what others are shunning (stocks, especially outside of Canada), and the best thing to sell is what others hold dear (gold, silver).

And who exactly holds gold and silver dear? Gold/silver is currently less than 1% of the worldwide investment universe; at the peak of previous cycles (ie: great depression, 1979, etc.), gold/silver and the miners were 20% of the worldwide investment universe. Very few people own gold and silver, or gold and silver miners. The entire gold/silver mining sector's market capitalization is less than the value of Google, Apple, or Microsoft. Gold trades at a fraction of its inflation-adjusted all-time high, while many of the Internet stocks are into nosebleed territory (see: LNKD, NFLX, AAPL, etc.)

Canadian stocks haven't exactly been all that hot either in the past few years. People seem to be hoarding bonds, cash, and other 'guaranteed' investments -- something that i don't think will end very well.

[Thalo]

And who exactly holds gold and silver dear? Gold/silver is currently less than 1% of the worldwide investment universe; at the peak of previous cycles (ie: great depression, 1979, etc.), gold/silver and the miners were 20% of the worldwide investment universe. Very few people own gold and silver, or gold and silver miners. The entire gold/silver mining sector's market capitalization is less than the value of Google, Apple, or Microsoft. Gold trades at a fraction of its inflation-adjusted all-time high, while many of the Internet stocks are into nosebleed territory (see: LNKD, NFLX, AAPL, etc.)

Canadian stocks haven't exactly been all that hot either in the past few years. People seem to be hoarding bonds, cash, and other 'guaranteed' investments -- something that i don't think will end very well.

I agree that the prices of the miners don't reflect the value of the metals, but who knows what constitutes fair value, overvalued, undervalued for gold? I just know that a lot of people want to buy it nowadays and it's priced at $1500. When the spotlight was off it (in the past 10 years), it was priced at $200something.

I think you once mentioned stocks priced in gold. When the spotlight was on gold and stocks were shunned, back in 1981, the DJIA was equal in value to the price of gold (roughly 850). On the other extreme, in 2000, the DJIA was worth 40x the price of gold. Today it's around 8x. I think we're a lot closer to overvalued gold and undervalued stocks than vice versa.

If you think stocks are also undervalued, do you think the price of gold can go to over $13,000?

[Mark77]

If you think stocks are also undervalued, do you think the price of gold can go to over $13,000?

Sure, I think it can go even higher than that. Just compare gold companies to razor blade companies -- razor blade companies can take 10 cents of razor blade and sell it for $2 -- a 95% profit margin. Most gold companies these days have to spend between $600-$1000/ounce producing their product (including the cost of acquiring replacement reserves of equivalent grades) -- only pulling a 30-50% margin.

If you believe in the theory that eventually a full cyclical inversion will occur -- the gold miners eventually will enjoy 95% margins on their product (ie: a $1000 ounce of gold will net $19k). While the razor blade manufacturers, of course, will be exposed to relentless offshore competition which will compress the margins on their product to something near zero.

The $20k level probably is where you see the value of the gold mining sector and above-ground gold restored to 20% of the world's investment universe. 1%-20% implies a $30,000/ounce gold price, but I think the miners will eventually soak up the excess valuation, as people will assign, to gold miners, more value than would be strictly implied by their NPV, discounted at the risk-free rate.

My view is that Barrick will eventually be a $1T+ firm in terms of market cap. Canada's gold investors will be driving Ferraris, not rusted out early 1980s Oldsmobiles.

[xlfe]

The c & d preferreds were down almost 15% at its lows today before gapping up. Pretty weird to see RATE RESET preferreds yieling 10+%

Hopefully they dont turn out to be a nortel or enron!

heh being the buy first do the research after investor that i am lol i'm getting a littler worried haha i know investors like me just add to the downward pressure on stocks.
but their future's too clouded to know for sure if they received proper valuation. their balance sheet looks fine as well as cashflow the two biggest concerns are sustainability of dividends and earnings in the future.

the next 2 reports will be extremely important as they recently sold off autotrader.

worst case scenario i hang on to this stock assuming it doesn't fall apart for 10 years, it distributes .65 now and it'll probably be worth something
so by then it's more then paid for itself haha.

[adamtheman]

Sure, I think it can go even higher than that. Just compare gold companies to razor blade companies -- razor blade companies can take 10 cents of razor blade and sell it for $2 -- a 95% profit margin. Most gold companies these days have to spend between $600-$1000/ounce producing their product (including the cost of acquiring replacement reserves of equivalent grades) -- only pulling a 30-50% margin.




While I appreciate a good analogy as much as the next guy, are you actually comparing razor blades to gold? And where does this magical 10 cents figure come in. Did you factor the millions and millions of dollars Gillette spends on endorsements each year? Didn't they pay Tiger Woods like $50m? You can do much better than using razor blades to justify a $13,000 gold price, or.... maybe not?

[Mark77]

While I appreciate a good analogy as much as the next guy, are you actually comparing razor blades to gold? And where does this magical 10 cents figure come in. Did you factor the millions and millions of dollars Gillette spends on endorsements each year? Didn't they pay Tiger Woods like $50m? You can do much better than using razor blades to justify a $13,000 gold price, or.... maybe not?

Well, another justification for a gold price in the tens of thousands of dollars per ounce is to completely monetize the world's supply of fiat currency in terms of gold. Or even the US national debt divided by the number of ounces of gold held on reserves by the US government.

ie: $14.3T / 261.5 m ounces = $54,684 / ounce

Or globally;

$40T (global national debt) / (30,000 tonnes worldwide gold reserves * (35,274 ounces/tonne)) = $37,799 / ounce

So yeah, lots of ways that one could approach this. All debts eventually come to resolution -- so the next few years should be very interesting, to say the least.

BTW, the fact that some adultering southern boy could be paid $50M or whatever merely to endorse mere razor blades is a pretty illusory illustration of how the monetary system is out of control... .

[adamtheman]

Well, another justification for a gold price in the tens of thousands of dollars per ounce is to completely monetize the world's supply of fiat currency in terms of gold. Or even the US national debt divided by the number of ounces of gold held on reserves by the US government.

ie: $14.3T / 261.5 m ounces = $54,684 / ounce

Or globally;

$40T (global national debt) / (30,000 tonnes worldwide gold reserves * (35,274 ounces/tonne)) = $37,799 / ounce

So yeah, lots of ways that one could approach this. All debts eventually come to resolution -- so the next few years should be very interesting, to say the least.

BTW, the fact that some adultering southern boy could be paid $50M or whatever merely to endorse mere razor blades is a pretty illusory illustration of how the monetary system is out of control... .

rotflmao. Keep the financial wisdom coming. Maybe you can write a book some day?

[Jungle]

It's creeping back up. I just bought some more index funds when we hit the lows. Now tomorrow I might put some more in.

Anyone else find the P/E's of Canadian large caps expensive??

[Mark77]

It's creeping back up. I just bought some more index funds when we hit the lows. Now tomorrow I might put some more in.

Anyone else find the P/E's of Canadian large caps expensive??

No I find them dirt cheap. Especially with contemporary interest rates.

Plenty of Canadian large-caps are in the 10-12X earnings range. Firms like BCE, Telus, etc., are refinancing lots of 8-10% debt, into 3.5% debt, saving millions on interest costs. Which is pretty decent considering that, official statistics aside, most Canadians still believe we are mired in recession.


rotflmao. Keep the financial wisdom coming. Maybe you can write a book some day?

An obvious problem with the calculation as given is that it assumes the overall level of indebtness remains static. Which it most certainly will not. However, it seems likely that the amount of gold will remain static.

Just how do we achieve resolution of the excess levels of sovereign debt without revaluing balance sheet assets held by central banks or revaluing the economy versus the levels of debt? That's a question that I'd like an answer to.....and certainly one possibility is presented by the gold crowd.

[Thalo]

If Mark/Pitz ever wrote a book, I will definitely buy it.

[Stryker]

As long as YLO can keep creating free cash flow, and manages it's debt at a reasonable level, I can't see the company failing, unless management does something stupid. Of course that's always a possibility.

[gomyone]

If Mark/Pitz ever wrote a book, I will definitely buy it.

...yeah it would probably be number 1 on the fiction/fantasy list....

[BenK]

rotflmao. Keep the financial wisdom coming. Maybe you can write a book some day?


...yeah it would probably be number 1 on the fiction/fantasy list....

lol, haterade must be on sale this week.

[renoldman]

I am glad you guys think you got a deal, but look at this:

http://www.ypg.com/images/ckeditor/files/2011_Q1_Rpt.pdf

Scroll down to page 14

Yeah, things are so good that they have 100 Million per quarter coming in in a dying industry.

But let's forget the massive debt they have amounting to $2 Billion .....

I think the share price reflects the fact that the music may be over for the company.

Look at the company's who couldn't transform as things have gone online. Such as Borders and Blockbuster.

Could YLO make it through? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.

I hope that the company continues, but that is likely because I like this website. If they started to charge for the use of the website I think a number of people would likely leave.

Good luck with your investments/trades/gambling ....

He said while looking at his own penny stock "investment".

[xlfe]

i went through ylo's recent financials and watched their webcast.
i'm fairly confident it's undervalued however there just doesn't seem to be much interest in their shares right now.
it's very much a mixed bag, but i would say if the company can continue to grow it's online revenue then there's real potential for growth.
and growth with a fat dividend pretty much guarantees a larger share price.

couple notes i didn't know before which i picked up from the webcast for anyone interested.
dividends are maintained 60-70% payout from cash earnings.
management get compensation through share options i think he said with a strike price of 6.30
and they actually talked about this site, saying how it was a win win where consumers look for deals via deal of the day and there's companies that can give it to them.
they also said they sold trader but kept real estate and lupac or something, i had little idea.
they said their nav is roughly 10

my personal take, the reward to risk is pretty good.
i know i've bought a bunch of things from ncix just because it's on this site, i guess i'm helping them in a way.
the ceo said it really well that the company is transforming and even a guy who can make websites is a competitor.
i do like that they bought restaurantica.com, nice useful site.

with that said i sold off half my shares at 4.11
it's pretty much like... i'll give you a penny and you give me back 5 pennies in 2 weeks from now.
i would have been happier with 5% and a dividend but can't always have it all.

edit
actually their total debt is closer to 2.5B :lol:
but tbh their debt/equity isn't bad compare that to exe.un

[EmperorOfCanada]

^it appears to be ready for a quick correction here, at least short term.

[Stryker]

For YLO it's not the $ amount of debt an investor should be looking at, but the long term debt to equity ratio, which stands at a modest 0.4. In addition YLO has been paying down this long term debt, year by year, for at least the last four years.

[Sheky]

...why are people looking at YLO? We're 2 years into a bull market and you have a stock making a new 52 week low that's lower than the March 09 low.

That tells you everything you need to know there.

[Mark77]

...why are people looking at YLO? We're 2 years into a bull market and you have a stock making a new 52 week low that's lower than the March 09 low.
That tells you everything you need to know there.

Some firms may be treated innappropriately by the market.

At least YLO has a visible and transparent business model that has been proven over the past number of years. Can you say the same thing about Facebook or Linkedin?

[Stryker]

...why are people looking at YLO? We're 2 years into a bull market and you have a stock making a new 52 week low that's lower than the March 09 low.

That tells you everything you need to know there.

Obviously you're not a value investor. Equities can be sent to extremes in either direction by a fickle public, most who it seems would rather play follow the leader than do some basic reading of a company's financial statements.

[Thalo]

...yeah it would probably be number 1 on the fiction/fantasy list....

At least it would be entertaining to read. Kind of like a Jim Cramer book.

[Mark77]

At least it would be entertaining to read. Kind of like a Jim Cramer book.

There's many hundreds of years worth of history of debt inflating and debt being completely liquidated in an economy. If someone thinks that assigning a piece of gold a 'value' of $20,000 is absurd -- isn't it absurd that we assign a piece of paper, reproduceable for mere pennies, a value of $100 or $1000 today (if not more)?

It may seem absurd that there are some people out there who are devoting the bulk of their savings to gold. In a few years, we may very well look back and see that it was absurd to trust a bankrupt (financially and morally) government with our savings in dollars. Or entrust our savings to assets (ie: houses) that were artificially propped up because the government decided to explicitly subsidize them.

[Sheky]

Some firms may be treated innappropriately by the market.

At least YLO has a visible and transparent business model that has been proven over the past number of years. Can you say the same thing about Facebook or Linkedin?


Obviously you're not a value investor. Equities can be sent to extremes in either direction by a fickle public, most who it seems would rather play follow the leader than do some basic reading of a company's financial statements.

You can make same type of argument about any stock that's falling, the valuation looks better than before so you should just buy more....and the stock keeps going down.

I'm just saying, there's no need to be a hero. There's far easier ways to make money on the market than buying something that'll give you heartburn. When a stock is making new lows while the market has been rallying for 2 years, something is fundamentally wrong with the stock. Because in a bull market, the tide should float all boats. Whether the market's view is justified should not be the issue because you rarely win when you argue against the market. You can be a contrarian all you want but you ultimately depend on the herd to buy the stock off you. And if they don't bite, it's just dead money. RIM was also "cheap" 20 dollars ago. If I were a value investor I would be buying it all the way down from $69.

I'd rather buy an expensive stock that's going higher than to bottom feed and hope I've picked a bottom. But different opinions is what makes the market I guess.

[charliebrown]

You can make same type of argument about any stock that's falling, the valuation looks better than before so you should just buy more....and the stock keeps going down.

I'm just saying, there's no need to be a hero. There's far easier ways to make money on the market than buying something that'll give you heartburn. When a stock is making new lows while the market has been rallying for 2 years, something is fundamentally wrong with the stock. Because in a bull market, the tide should float all boats. Whether the market's view is justified should not be the issue because you rarely win when you argue against the market. You can be a contrarian all you want but you ultimately depend on the herd to buy the stock off you. And if they don't bite, it's just dead money. RIM was also "cheap" 20 dollars ago. If I were a value investor I would be buying it all the way down from $69.

I'd rather buy an expensive stock that's going higher than to bottom feed and hope I've picked a bottom. But different opinions is what makes the market I guess.

Rewind back to early 2009 and if you didnt buy into companies like Teck, any of the big5 banks, etc and you would have missed out on 200-1000+% returns

I think i also read on this site: if you pick the wrong bottom, then all you get is smelly fingers; so do your own DD

[Sheky]

Rewind back to early 2009 and if you didnt buy into companies like Teck, any of the big5 banks, etc and you would have missed out on 200-1000+% returns

I think i also read on this site: if you pick the wrong bottom, then all you get is smelly fingers; so do your own DD

Buying TD and RY at March 09 is a completely different beast than buying something like YLO currently.

There's was nothing wrong with the Cnd banks. The former were sold off because of a broad market crash in which all stocks were sold off, the latter has currently sold off in a bull market because market deemed it to be a stock that has little to no potential for growth and it's pricing it accordingly. So other stocks are going up, while this keeps going down. You cannot equate the two. They are/were all cheap, but the latter is cheap for a reason.

Even if YLO somehow goes back to the high from here, to the 06 peak of 17 bucks, which is a pie in the sky target, you've only made 13 bucks. There's a ton of blue chip resource stocks that'll make you that amount within this year after the recent sell off that we've had. Funny you should mention Tck, that went up 6 bucks in two weeks...if I wanted to make 17 bucks, I'm just saying there are far easier ways.

[Jungle]

Unfortuntally, the future earnings and growth for YLO is not looking too good. Like someone else said, I see it being a blockbuster or borders. Personally, I hate that yellow pages book. That was a big sorce of their gravy for a long time, now it will be dying. So much easier to "google."

[Mark77]

Unfortuntally, the future earnings and growth for YLO is not looking too good. Like someone else said, I see it being a blockbuster or borders. Personally, I hate that yellow pages book. That was a big sorce of their gravy for a long time, now it will be dying. So much easier to "google."

Yeah but the results you're going to get out of "google" aren't really that localized, require a computer, and require a lot of navigation. Nobody is going to fight with "google" for 20 minutes just to order a pizza, when YLO's product will give you what you need to know in 2 minutes.

If YLO goes down, it will be from a bad "consumer" economy; one which wipes out a lot of fringe businesses. Not from "competition" with Google or the Internet, IMHO.

Another thing about YLO versus GOOG -- YLO doesn't engage in exotic licensing and transfer pricing arrangements with offshore affiliates. Its revenues are booked immediately in Canadian dollars, in Canadian entities, and indeed, YLO provides excellent cash visibility through the huge dividend/distribution payouts. If Google played by the same rules -- what would their earnings be?

[Jungle]

Not a clue Mark. I see what you're are saying, but 20 minutes to find the phone number for pizza? Maybe it would take the the old folks that long!!

Change of subject: RY increased dividend (finally) but stock beaten down over latest earnings.. lol.

[renoldman]

actually their total debt is closer to 2.5B :lol:
but tbh their debt/equity isn't bad compare that to exe.un

EXE.UN is in a different kind of business. They operate senior care centres (are seniors going to disappear? Ok, they all will in time, but people will still age and require some kind of care) and they also have a significant cash position (for a "REIT").

Maybe the current valuation is high, but the business appears to be sound.

I think YLO has been doing a good job of transitioning, but their huge debt is still a problem.

The company has stated they will use the funds (from the sale of a division) to repurchase shares in the open market (that's what some believe). They should be receiving the cash in the near future (I think it is in June).

When/if they start buying, things could get interesting as their is a large short position in the stock.

So, I will wait and watch.

[Stryker]

I think YLO has been doing a good job of transitioning, but their huge debt is still a problem.



Geez, how many more times. I don't consider a 40% long term debt to equity ratio a problem. It may have been a problem, if YLO didn't have the free cash flow to pay down the debt, but so far, they've had enough free cash to give out a generous dividend along with paying down that debt.

Now indeed, if that free cash flow does start to dry up, then shareholders may have a problem.

By the way, in my own case, YLO is only a small part of a diversified portfolio, because I can see what a company has done in the past, but I can't predict it's future. Sometimes the unexpected comes along, and good things happen, and other times in the long run it just doesn't work out.

[charliebrown]

Buying TD and RY at March 09 is a completely different beast than buying something like YLO currently.

There's was nothing wrong with the Cnd banks. The former were sold off because of a broad market crash in which all stocks were sold off, the latter has currently sold off in a bull market because market deemed it to be a stock that has little to no potential for growth and it's pricing it accordingly. So other stocks are going up, while this keeps going down. You cannot equate the two. They are/were all cheap, but the latter is cheap for a reason.

Even if YLO somehow goes back to the high from here, to the 06 peak of 17 bucks, which is a pie in the sky target, you've only made 13 bucks. There's a ton of blue chip resource stocks that'll make you that amount within this year after the recent sell off that we've had. Funny you should mention Tck, that went up 6 bucks in two weeks...if I wanted to make 17 bucks, I'm just saying there are far easier ways.

Making $6 on TCK is roughly 15% gain; making $6 on ylo is doubling your $

I have to agree some miners look pretty attractive again; lots of big purchses in TCK by the Caisse. Although i may have missed out on the 20+% on BWR as it recovers back to $6

As for another poster's comment re YLO shr buyback -- its already happening. They've been buying ~600k shares daily in the last wk. Maybe the company is purposely sending out bad news to save $ on the buyback :)

[charliebrown]

In other bottom feeding news, who thinks NOK and/or RIMM will recover? Seems like $8 = support for nok and $43 for RIMM; with another round of buybacks on the way for RIMM -- although they have lost quite a bit of $ if the last round had and avg buyback price in the $60s

[xlfe]

Geez, how many more times. I don't consider a 40% long term debt to equity ratio a problem. It may have been a problem, if YLO didn't have the free cash flow to pay down the debt, but so far, they've had enough free cash to give out a generous dividend along with paying down that debt.

Now indeed, if that free cash flow does start to dry up, then shareholders may have a problem.

By the way, in my own case, YLO is only a small part of a diversified portfolio, because I can see what a company has done in the past, but I can't predict it's future. Sometimes the unexpected comes along, and good things happen, and other times in the long run it just doesn't work out.

heh probably a couple more times lol.
people who think a company is dead nothing will change their mind until they see the share price rise.
and that will rise when eps turns around and it may not do that for a while.

technically their trading much below book value, that's kind of an indication of how terrible sentiment is lol

tbh the balance sheet looks fine to me, a declining debt/ebitda is good too.
yea blockbuster was a failed transition, they never had the titles i wanted and if so they were out of copies and they weren't really that close to me.
if ylo only print directories then i guess they would be in a similar problem. it's not like they have online revenue now that's growing...that's absurd!

i can't predict the future, nobody can. but here's how it looks
everyone think's it's going to fail... but they don't know that for sure.
it's like for every 100 people that think it'll fail 1 person thinks it'll succeed, so 1 in 100
and that translate to a very low price
however maybe there's only a 9 in 10 chance it'll fail.
statistically then the reward/risk ratio is nice.

i'm not saying to go out and buy it, i know it's not a safe bet.
but i dunno i guess some investors look at everything and make an informed bet and not just see a couple things.

i only bought it at first because i noticed that strange drop and took a chance
if i thought the company stood no chance i would have sold all my shares afterwards for a small profit.
in my view if they can raise their online rev to 50% then the stock could double in time.
i'm not running a stop loss on this one.

in the short term mr bullion is looking mighty nice.

edit
had some more free time and drew up a little chart for ylo
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/860/ylo.png/

pretty much shows the recent downward trend, needs to break about 4.15 to reverse, i'd be confident if it hits 4.20
so too early to call a bottom, i suspect it's an unconfirmed reversal just need to wait for the ma to catch up or maybe that's just me hoping haha

i drew a parallel line it might be a possible support line.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I'm waiting to see the mrkt reaction to RIMM's earning report on June 16 (take a look at the options and short ratio). I think the stock still has a bit more to fall.
Btw, the major indexes haven't shown clear signs of a bull market/rebound yet, so I'd be cautious buying any "laggers". RIMM is announcing new products in late July/mid August, which might be a better time to think about buying.

If you want to buy rebounding stocks I'd recommend watching/following BRCM or MSFT.

[Sheky]

Making $6 on TCK is roughly 15% gain; making $6 on ylo is doubling your $

I don't really focus much on percentage gains. It looks nice on paper but really, all I care about is the dollar gained. I went up like 50% on EQN when they were taken out, but I still made more off a trade from FM. Plus it's hard to be aggressive to deploy the same amount of cash into a falling stock than vs a blue chip that's holding up relatively well. You're not going to have an account full of penny stocks anyway. Chances are you'll have a small position because it is so weak, so the doubling allure is just not there for me since you're not going to double your account overnight. Being overtly aggressive on something weak is more likely you'll just wreck your account.

[xlfe]

If you want to buy rebounding stocks I'd recommend watching/following BRCM or MSFT.

i'd much rather pick intc over msft.

rim is more likely to rise and then fall lower in the intermediate term.
slightly bullish reversal signal on friday

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

i'd much rather pick intc over msft.

rim is more likely to rise and then fall lower in the intermediate term.
slightly bullish reversal signal on friday

The only reason I didn't recommend intc ATM is because it's going thru a correction, where as msft seems to have hit close to "bottom". Furthermore, MSFT has a lot of product announcements coming soon (Windows 8, Office 2013?, etc...) which usually boosts the stock price 15-20%. The stock usually rises 6 to 9 months before actual product launches. Plus, news reports/rumors of Ballmer being forced out or MSFT spinning-off divisions as seperate entities could temporarily elevate the company's valuation.

Also, INTC started a downward correction after it announced its 3D-gate, but it couldn't hold above the $23 support level. The next support is $22, it might be better timing to invest in a rebound if it reaches close to that lower price... I'd also keep a eye on CSCO, as it divestes non-performing assets. The company might be a good long term buy after it announces the next qrterly report and gives investors a better idea on the progress of its restructuring strategy.

[Jungle]

No I find them dirt cheap. Especially with contemporary interest rates.

Plenty of Canadian large-caps are in the 10-12X earnings range. Firms like BCE, Telus, etc., are refinancing lots of 8-10% debt, into 3.5% debt, saving millions on interest costs. Which is pretty decent considering that, official statistics aside, most Canadians still believe we are mired in recession.



An obvious problem with the calculation as given is that it assumes the overall level of indebtness remains static. Which it most certainly will not. However, it seems likely that the amount of gold will remain static.

Just how do we achieve resolution of the excess levels of sovereign debt without revaluing balance sheet assets held by central banks or revaluing the economy versus the levels of debt? That's a question that I'd like an answer to.....and certainly one possibility is presented by the gold crowd.

I just looked at some popular large cap P/Es and I guess they are not bad. The Sat edition GLobe and Mail is great for that. One that caught my eye was Laurenton bank. PE was only around 11. Also RIM, the PE is LOW right now....but seems like speculative play on diving in. The playbook recall made the future look dull. Apple just has too much of a stong hold. Amazing how they can just come out with new editions of the same products and people "must" have the new ones..product is excellent and branding is good. I type this on a mac as I post!

[xlfe]

Also, INTC started a downward correction after it announced its 3D-gate, but it couldn't hold above the $23 support level. The next support is $22, it might be better timing to invest in a rebound if it reaches close to that lower price... I'd also keep a eye on CSCO, as it divestes non-performing assets. The company might be a good long term buy after it announces the next qrterly report and gives investors a better idea on the progress of its restructuring strategy.

i can't really tell on intc, could be a bear trap or could continue to drop.
if it does go up it won't be that much upside in the short term whereas a drop... i would wait for confirmation on this one.

but based on the fundamentals i'll stick pick intc over msft just not at this time :lol:

[McClane]

I like AMT, American Tower. They own and operate wireless sites in North America, Mexico, Brazil and India. I somehow understand their business because I work in the industry. Now, I hear that they are in the process of becoming a REIT, but I don't understand the implications for the investor (I know there's an income tax reduction for them, but that's it). Anyone knows how this works? Thanks.

[Jungle]

I am in the middle of doing an entire tax, account, shelter, MER and asset allocation between all of our accounts. What a nightmare it is. Between non reg, tfsa, rrsp and penson.. oh my.

So last week I switched mutual funds last week to INT index e and the order never went through! I must not have confirmed it properly, as I was rushing to get in before the 3PM deadline. I am also hoping bonds prices drop again, need to allocate properly and the fund is cheap considering what we are allowed to use.

I am going for 50% Cdn, 15% us, 15% INT, 20% bonds, just like they listed for suggested allocatin on financial webring.org. This has provided a better return than 100% equity, due to the bonds smoothing out corrolation. (we are 98% equity!! )

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

As a foreign investor, your dividends will be taxed at a higher rate. If the company is one of the following: REIT, LLP, or ADR. This is especially true if you are investing with a registered savings account (RRSP, RRIF?, etc...)


I like AMT, American Tower. They own and operate wireless sites in North America, Mexico, Brazil and India. I somehow understand their business because I work in the industry. Now, I hear that they are in the process of becoming a REIT, but I don't understand the implications for the investor (I know there's an income tax reduction for them, but that's it). Anyone knows how this works? Thanks.

[7jai]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/germany-to-pull-plug-on-nuclear-power/article2039434/

Germany has confirmed that they are shutting down all their nuclear plants by 2022. Be prepared for a huge dip today in UUU.TO

[Jungle]

Read that on the news this morning. Good for Germany, I don't like nuclear power plants anymore after watching the Chyrobol documentary last year and then seeing the crises in Japan.. not worth the risk anymore. You can't control what is uncontrolable, ie meltdown. Time for alternatives.

Also, the YLO CEO took home 6 million this year worth of pay. :lol:

[7jai]

Read that on the news this morning. Good for Germany, I don't like nuclear power plants anymore after watching the Chyrobol documentary last year and then seeing the crises in Japan.. not worth the risk anymore. You can't control what is uncontrolable, ie meltdown. Time for alternatives.

Also, the YLO CEO took home 6 million this year worth of pay. :lol:

for sure good for germany, bad for investors like me :( lol

but here's my question... if not nuclear, what source of power will you be using? wind? solar? hydro? none of these make any sense from any standpoint, or else everyone would be adapting these ways already.

Unless Germany invented something so revolutionary that we don't know about? :lol:

[ACC-Major]

for sure good for germany, bad for investors like me :( lol

but here's my question... if not nuclear, what source of power will you be using? wind? solar? hydro? none of these make any sense from any standpoint, or else everyone would be adapting these ways already.

Unless Germany invented something so revolutionary that we don't know about? :lol:

To my understanding, Germany phasing out nuclear is already priced into it.
I mean, what can a little Germany do against India, China, and Russia?
We will see a shortage in uranium whether you like it or not.
Well, of course unless China or India, or Russia ran into some nuclear crisis like Japan.
Then we are screwed for at least a decade.

[pipolchap]

for sure good for germany, bad for investors like me :( lol

but here's my question... if not nuclear, what source of power will you be using? wind? solar? hydro? none of these make any sense from any standpoint, or else everyone would be adapting these ways already.

Unless Germany invented something so revolutionary that we don't know about? :lol:

I heard wind and solar. I'm somewhat concerned about uranium's recovery, but I see this news as a temporary blip for now.

[ACC-Major]

I heard wind and solar. I'm somewhat concerned about uranium's recovery, but I see this news as a temporary blip for now.

Where you heard that? I thought it was nat gas. And buying energy from neighbour countries like France.

[pipolchap]

Where you heard that? I thought it was nat gas. And buying energy from neighbour countries like France.

CBC radio this morning. It was 6am so might've heard wrong.

If its nat gas, I'm somewhat hedged since I've bought into eca last month in the belief their LNG will produce some results. Good luck all.

[7jai]

Where you heard that? I thought it was nat gas. And buying energy from neighbour countries like France.

+1 that's what i heard. I heard they already borrow a lot from France.

Germany's pretty cunning... buying other people's resources and letting them assume all the risk :lol:

[7jai]

To my understanding, Germany phasing out nuclear is already priced into it.
I mean, what can a little Germany do against India, China, and Russia?
We will see a shortage in uranium whether you like it or not.
Well, of course unless China or India, or Russia ran into some nuclear crisis like Japan.
Then we are screwed for at least a decade.

Yeh I heard that this news was announced back in early May, but they confirmed the details today. Damn, the TSX Uranium market is down around 2% already =/

[xlfe]

ylo my stop loss hit at 3.99
currently trading at 3.84

overall loss ~1%
good chance it's trading near support, however there's no sign that's its going out of it's steep downtrend as illustrated by the graph in my earlier post.

[Stryker]

ylo my stop loss hit at 3.99
currently trading at 3.84

overall loss ~1%
good chance it's trading near support, however there's no sign that's its going out of it's steep downtrend as illustrated by the graph in my earlier post.

I may be wrong, but I'm still hanging on.

[xlfe]

I may be wrong, but I'm still hanging on.

heh actually i bought a very small amount of units at 3.84
set a stop loss at 3.79, i estimate 3.80-3.82 to be a support line.

but i've been watching it and it seems stalled at 3.85-6

do you know the theory about stocks that gap down?
it postulates that judging how the stock responds in the first hour it can predict how the stock will close with a certain amount of confidence.
it gapped down from 4.09 to 4.02 and within the first hour it hit a high of 4.04
that's a gap fill of less than half so it would be more likely that the stock will close below open.
given how it dropped even more i think that's likely to be the case.

been watching td as well.

[Stryker]

According to INK Insider Reports, YLO is still buying back their own shares. Last week there were buyback's reported for May 24th, 25th, and 26th for 641,849 common shares on each of those days.

[xlfe]

yeah they plan to buy back from now till may next year.
i forget the amounts but it'll be common and pref shares.

for like a second it reach 3.89 and it came back down.... could that be resistance already??
these lower highs tell me to take my 2 cents and leave now haha

edit
ok i've closed all my positions on ylo. took my 0.5% gain and left.

[Shaf]

I have 600 shares of YLO with an average cost of $7.2 :cry: Keep holding as i am already down 50%???

[akib99]

I have 600 shares of YLO with an average cost of $7.2 :cry: Keep holding as i am already down 50%???

That sucks man. I thought I was having it bad with my stocks plunging 5 minutes after I buy them....

Maybe minimize your losses by selling? Do you expect it to recover anything in terms of prices?

[xlfe]

ouchh...

anyone still holding mga?
insider trade earlier today at 9:58am

Anthony Grey sold 186,000 shares at 48 cents on 05-30-11 -- bringing his total stake in the company to 50,000 shares.

revised my ylo graph to today
http://imageshack.us/f/707/ylo2g.png/
doesn't seem to have the volume to either break support nor break resistance. and that's saying something since it's volume is higher than the 30 day average volume.

imo expect resistance at 3.92 and support at 3.80
once i saw it only go up to 3.89 that was it for me.

pretty much all the technicals indicate very bearish
but i'm curious how and when the stock will start to turn, i no longer hold any positions in it and do not expect to open any positions.
kind of curious how the buy signal will look when it comes... because i believe this stock can't just keep dropping forever... lol
especially at a rate of 2.3% a day...

3 things i see it happening
it rises and breaks resistance, 3.95 would be enough for me if it can hold that.
it continues down at an avg rate of ~2% a day
it breaks support and drops to 3.60-3.70 which is the next likely support line.

[7jai]

ouchh...

anyone still holding mga?
insider trade earlier today at 9:58am

i took a loss on MGA.... I bought at 0.55 and also bought at 0.61....

I sold both positions at 0.55 - 0.57 early this morning when it peaked for 10-20 mins once the stock market opened... so I lost around $600 - 700 bucks :(

But yeh, I was afraid the market for uranium was going to tank this morning after I heard the news on the radio about Germany :S

[Thalo]

How is this thread not locked yet? It's nothing but stock tips!

[tng11]

How is this thread not locked yet? It's nothing but stock tips!

Good question. I recommend you go through the entire thread and report each and every post that contains stock tips individually. :cheesygri

[sweatypickle]

How is this thread not locked yet? It's nothing but stock tips!

equity discussion!

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

How is this thread not locked yet? It's nothing but stock tips!

I've only posted either predictions/guesses or personal investments. The predicts were meant to be just for fun and my personal picks were more to see how others viewed those companies... Although I have seen a couple of people openly suggest stock recommendations. :lol:

But overall, this thread is more of a community discussion on how we perceive the market and certain sectors/industries... ;)

[Sheky]

ouchh...

pretty much all the technicals indicate very bearish
but i'm curious how and when the stock will start to turn, i no longer hold any positions in it and do not expect to open any positions.
kind of curious how the buy signal will look when it comes... because i believe this stock can't just keep dropping forever... lol
especially at a rate of 2.3% a day...


http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/1484/agul.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/23/agul.jpg/)

Watch for signs of bottoming if there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the stock. The market will tell you when. See AGU for example from last summer. Usually stocks don't make a V recovery and will have a bottoming process that base builds in a channel. See SU from last spring. But this is a text book example of a violent reversal for shits and giggles.

1. Positive divergence. Look at the vertical line I've drawn and from that point, note how the slope of the MFI indicator is making a higher low while the price is making a lower low. It's telling you the current trend is about to reverse because Vol always precedes price. Alternatively you'll look for negative divergence, the opposite, at the top of a run to know when to get out or trim your position.

2. Look for a break of the downtrend. Draw a downtrend line that connects the peak of the downward price movement and wait for the price to close above that down trend line for probably a couple of sessions. Intraday high doesn't count. This usually happens at support. See the double bottom in this case going back to Nov of 09.

3. Look for vol spikes. Look at the spike in early July. Don't be cheap and say I'll wait for it to come back down. If the first two points above happened, the vol and price spike will be substantial, if you see it, nibble and your stop loss should be just below the most recent low.

4. Time it with entry using a short term indicator like full stochastics, it'll usually be breaking above 20 as in the case here. Just the screen cap is too small. You'll see it if you go to this link. Technically, you should buy it as it exits above 20.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06357915290

[xlfe]

so far it seems to be rebounding
it broke support and landed in my estimated support between .6-.7
has shot back up to a higher high of 3.88 which is less than my estimated 3.95; it doesn't seem to have enough gas to hold.

yea that's pretty strong divergence, neat example of a reversal.

[menaknow]

How is this thread not locked yet? It's nothing but stock tips!

I don't think this thread has really had tips. It has been more of a discussion on what people are doing. If anything it has been more of a venting thread.

There have been a few post however which look more like someone spamming some stock then actual advice. :mad:

However it has been quiet interesting to read what is going on with other RFD members.

[tng11]

Out of UUU @ 3.64. Took a 1% loss, but made some 20% and 10% on previous trades, so can't say I'm upset. Uranium just doesn't look rosy in the near future and I'm trying to reduce my portfolio leverage, so out it goes.

[renoldman]

xlfe,

I think the move in YLO is capped because of what is happening in the market in general.

Seems the market is reacting poorly to Carney's decision to keep the rate unchanged:

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/999871--global-economy-too-fragile-for-rate-hike-says-central-bank?bn=1

Reading some commentary, seems that some believe that rate increases are in the near future.

I think that is why the Canadian markets are a bit cool right now. People are expecting rates to go up in the near future.

Anyways, that is my take.

[BenK]

COFFEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

lol

NYSE:JO

[xlfe]

aye thanks
read that this morning as well, it was entitled "Global economy too fragile for rate hike, says Central bank"

i hold hzu as well as i bought svm yesterday as i was confident silver would rise.
it did rise. however my svm (silver equity) just stood still. instead of waiting around for it to rise i sold it off.
lost about 0.1% pretty much the bid ask spread when silver gain 0.5% overnight.

i know a lot of reports are coming out this week, i guess everyone is waiting.

picked up a very small amount of uuu at 3.58 and 3.57
completely speculative play. set a stop loss at 3.49 3.54

the current bid ask on uuu
#order/ total size price bid then ask
66 / 106200 3.56 3.57 102100 / 44
84 / 237300 3.55 3.58 44900 / 44

yup looks like the price is going to be stuck for a while :lol:
once i saw the size on .55 i edited my stop loss... that is a big wall

don't really want to carry it overnight but might take the risk.

[7jai]

Has anyone considered shorting/PUT options on LinkedIN? Based on the trends I'm seeing, I think these guys will go south to at least $50's by the end of June.

Thoughts?

Disclaimer: I own July 2011 PUT Options @ $70 strike price.

[BenK]

Has anyone considered shorting/PUT options on LinkedIN? Based on the trends I'm seeing, I think these guys will go south to at least $50's by the end of June.

Thoughts?

Disclaimer: I own July 2011 PUT Options @ $70 strike price.

I tried to short LNKD on Questrade but the order was rejected, don't understand why...

"Notes: Order required broker review; it was rejected by the broker"

[xlfe]

i see linkedin as extremely manipulated
if enough people think it's going to go down it'll do the opposite.

nice rally on ylo but still not high enough and thus it continues down.
no fun spamming alone so i'll keep it short. 3.70 support

[7jai]

I tried to short LNKD on Questrade but the order was rejected, don't understand why...

"Notes: Order required broker review; it was rejected by the broker"

Are you using a TFSA / RRSP account? If so, that's probably why. You can't "short" stocks in those tax-sheltered accounts. It isnt' allowed. You need to create a regular investment margin account to do so.

But forget that, just invest through options now (their option capabilities just launched this past friday). If you want to short it, might as well just do PUT options on the stock. Mind you, it's more volatile than share purchasing/selling.... You can lose alot very quickly, but you can gain alot quickly too.


i see linkedin as extremely manipulated
if enough people think it's going to go down it'll do the opposite.

nice rally on ylo but still not high enough and thus it continues down.
no fun spamming alone so i'll keep it short. 3.70 support

linkedin is a really funky stock.... but i'm confident it will continue to plummet till it hits around 50's - 60's... The current news on the economy isn't helping the stock either.... So I think it's gonna keep going down and down.

[BenK]

Are you using a TFSA / RRSP account? If so, that's probably why. You can't "short" stocks in those tax-sheltered accounts. It isnt' allowed. You need to create a regular investment margin account to do so.


I was using a regular margin account.

[DanP]

Has anyone considered shorting/PUT options on LinkedIN? Based on the trends I'm seeing, I think these guys will go south to at least $50's by the end of June.

Thoughts?

Disclaimer: I own July 2011 PUT Options @ $70 strike price.

I cant believe how pricy the puts are today. An in the money put a year out is like 20 dollars right now! That's insanitiy.

I was very interested in "shorting" this with a put, but thats just way too much risk at those costs right now in my opinion. I'm gonna wait on this, and decide if i want to chase RIM instead. I cant believe how beat up it is in the last 2 days. Regardless of it having lower future growth potentials, it's still trading at a PE of 6.5! That's absurd! RIMs may have some hard years ahead, but no way should it be valued so low. I'm still hoping Microsoft puts a bid on it.

[Mark77]

I'm still hoping Microsoft puts a bid on it.

Yeah, but then Microsoft would dismantle it and ship it to India. Bye-bye K-W economy. Like they've done with the rest of their company. Having anything to do with Microsoft is basically the kiss of death -- just look at Nokia, for instance.

[brownbobcat]

I cant believe how pricy the puts are today. An in the money put a year out is like 20 dollars right now! That's insanitiy.
There was a lot of short interest right out of the gate, but it's a little too expensive/unpredictable for me to stay in it any longer. Could be losing out on some steeper drops still to come, but I'm going to take my gains and run.

[DanP]

Yeah, but then Microsoft would dismantle it and ship it to India. Bye-bye K-W economy. Like they've done with the rest of their company. Having anything to do with Microsoft is basically the kiss of death -- just look at Nokia, for instance.

I quite agree with you, but I'm hoping MS putting a bid on RIM will do what happened to Potash. So the deal doesnt happen, but it boosts RIM's price so a much happier place. I dont see any reason why MS would want RIM, but they have buckets of cash and not doing anything with it.

I do think RIM has some more earning power that ppl arent looking at. For instance, there are rumours that RIM might license out its blackberry messenger. Now while this would essentially destroy any reason for me to buy a blackberry ever again, i'd love to have blackberry messenger. It's an amazing program and there's nothing out there that compares.

[Jungle]

Well, the market certainly "panic sold" today.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Low ADP figures (private sector) and Greek/EU debt is still dragging the market down. I'm happy that I sold all my positions more than a week ago :D

Looks like tmrw might be a relatively neutral day, while Friday could bring another small blood bath. I'm actually interested in a few stocks if the S&P reaches 1302. There might be another small rebound until the end of the month before the market proceeds with a mid-term correction (post-QE 2).

My guesstimates for the large scale correction would be at least 2-3 months and the S&P could retest the low 1200s again...

[EmperorOfCanada]

I quite agree with you, but I'm hoping MS putting a bid on RIM will do what happened to Potash. So the deal doesnt happen, but it boosts RIM's price so a much happier place. I dont see any reason why MS would want RIM, but they have buckets of cash and not doing anything with it.

I do think RIM has some more earning power that ppl arent looking at. For instance, there are rumours that RIM might license out its blackberry messenger. Now while this would essentially destroy any reason for me to buy a blackberry ever again, i'd love to have blackberry messenger. It's an amazing program and there's nothing out there that compares.

What about it is so special about it that no other messenger has (aside from maybe the super security)? There are lots of good messengers out there IMO :)

[Thalo]

Low ADP figures (private sector) and Greek/EU debt is still dragging the market down. I'm happy that I sold all my positions more than a week ago :D

Looks like tmrw might be a relatively neutral day, while Friday could bring another small blood bath. I'm actually interested in a few stocks if the S&P reaches 1302. There might be another small rebound until the end of the month before the market proceeds with a mid-term correction (post-QE 2).

My guesstimates for the large scale correction would be at least 2-3 months and the S&P could retest the low 1200s again...

All the tepid economic news (which is still mostly positive, just less so) is just more reason to delay rate increases, maybe even introduce QE3, which will be good for stocks, gives the economy even longer to "rebuild" itself.

[Shadow Rider]

All the tepid economic news (which is still mostly positive, just less so) is just more reason to delay rate increases, maybe even introduce QE3, which will be good for stocks, gives the economy even longer to "rebuild" itself.

In one corner there's no QE3 and risky asset prices fall you lose money, in the other there's QE3 and inflation and you lose savings. This is such a bad deal.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

In one corner there's no QE3 and risky asset prices fall you lose money, in the other there's QE3 and inflation and you lose savings. This is such a bad deal.

QE 3 = inflation barron. The gov't is manipulating the CPI indicator to "show" the public that inflation is in control, yet the consumer is experiencing a higher rate than govt reports b/c of the excluded basket items from CPI that are actually necessary and rarely substitutable.

However, without another round of QE and debt ceiling increase the economy risks falling behind. In all honesty, the US govt and global economy will be facing a period of stagflation. The economy NEEDS a "breakthrough sector" to push the world out of a manufacturing/employement slump. As far as I'm concerned, the commodity and real estate/debt bubbles screwed over the poor/middle class. The rich will continue to become richer by leveraging their assets and taking advantage of "fire sale" prices on assets and investing in the stock market that's artificially being propelled by low interest rates and excess credit.

I hope we don't enter the "LOST DECADE" that Japan witnessed after their real estate crisis in the 1990s... That would be one of the worst-case scenarios.

[Thalo]

QE 3 = inflation barron. The gov't is manipulating the CPI indicator to "show" the public that inflation is in control, yet the consumer is experiencing a higher rate than govt reports b/c of the excluded basket items from CPI that are actually necessary and rarely substitutable.

However, without another round of QE and debt ceiling increase the economy risks falling behind. In all honesty, the US govt and global economy will be facing a period of stagflation. The economy NEEDS a "breakthrough sector" to push the world out of a manufacturing/employement slump. As far as I'm concerned, the commodity and real estate/debt bubbles screwed over the poor/middle class. The rich will continue to become richer by leveraging their assets and taking advantage of "fire sale" prices on assets and investing in the stock market that's artificially being propelled by low interest rates and excess credit.

I hope we don't enter the "LOST DECADE" that Japan witnessed after their real estate crisis in the 1990s... That would be one of the worst-case scenarios.

If the U.S. government continues deficit spending and raising the "debt ceiling" then they will find themselves in exactly the same situation as Japan. The problem with Japan (other than demographics) is that their government is sucking so much money out of their people's/corporations' hands (taxation) AS WELL as the capital markets (borrowing) that they're not letting their economy have a chance to recover.

[blainehamilton]

Been watching silver crawl back from the dead last/this week, then yesterday and today - BOOM.

Is this the bottom for YLO?

[xlfe]

silver is probably panic selling got in at 36 i'm actually only averaged down so taking a loss right now.
i'm confident it'll rise back to 37-38 sooner or later.

ylo is trading near resistance, it's unclear that is the bottom.
it can fall back to 3.70s which again is support.
if it breaks through above 3.95 then i would assume it'll start an upwards trend.

[Mark77]

I hope we don't enter the "LOST DECADE" that Japan witnessed after their real estate crisis in the 1990s... That would be one of the worst-case scenarios.

"worst-case"? Hardly. That would be a best-case scenario, IMHO, as the Japanese standard of living has continued to improve significantly, with the Japanese continuing to enjoy one of the highest standards of living in the world. I personally would kiss the ground if Canada/USA could end up with an economy as vibrant as that in Japan.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

"worst-case"? Hardly. That would be a best-case scenario, IMHO, as the Japanese standard of living has continued to improve significantly, with the Japanese continuing to enjoy one of the highest standards of living in the world. I personally would kiss the ground if Canada/USA could end up with an economy as vibrant as that in Japan.

Sorry Mark77, but not everyone is doom and gloom. It seems to me that you're quite pessimistic about most types of investment - be it securities, real estate, or even bonds.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

If the U.S. government continues deficit spending and raising the "debt ceiling" then they will find themselves in exactly the same situation as Japan. The problem with Japan (other than demographics) is that their government is sucking so much money out of their people's/corporations' hands (taxation) AS WELL as the capital markets (borrowing) that they're not letting their economy have a chance to recover.

I agree with your partially, the US govt actually extended the tax cuts for all citizens, but that isn't enough to revive the economy. Politicans are trying to boost a floundering economy with piece-wise legislation and initiatives.

IMHO, the gov't should actually increase US corporate tax (aka close tax loop-holes) and invest the money in infrastructure to increase productivity as well as reduce pollutants (become a GLOBAL leader in the 'green movement' and create jobs in the sector). For instance, the gov't could spend money on transportation to reduce traffic congestion and increase efficiency by build railways etc... They could also reduce reliance on foreign oil while increasing domestic employment by invest in wind energy, nat gas power plants, EV & nat gas fuel stations. Furthermore, an emphasis should be placed on increasing trade amongst N/A and S/A nations (as opposed to protectionist legislation) and the gov't could help improve the efficiency and availability of the US health-care system.

Any one of the above initiatives or other govt-backed investments would be better than QE3, which is basically printing and buying back the USD. Even investing/funding engineer and science Masters and PhD students would be a better alternative to simply injecting more money into a stagnant economy.

[Thalo]

I agree with your partially, the US govt actually extended the tax cuts for all citizens, but that isn't enough to revive the economy. Politicans are trying to boost a floundering economy with piece-wise legislation and initiatives.

IMHO, the gov't should actually increase US corporate tax (aka close tax loop-holes) and invest the money in infrastructure to increase productivity as well as reduce pollutants (become a GLOBAL leader in the 'green movement' and create jobs in the sector). For instance, the gov't could spend money on transportation to reduce traffic congestion and increase efficiency by build railways etc... They could also reduce reliance on foreign oil while increasing domestic employment by invest in wind energy, nat gas power plants, EV & nat gas fuel stations. Furthermore, an emphasis should be placed on increasing trade amongst N/A and S/A nations (as opposed to protectionist legislation) and the gov't could help improve the efficiency and availability of the US health-care system.

Any one of the above initiatives or other govt-backed investments would be better than QE3, which is basically printing and buying back the USD. Even investing/funding engineer and science Masters and PhD students would be a better alternative to simply injecting more money into a stagnant economy.

U.S. already has some of the highest corporate income tax rates in the world, they have room to let personal income taxes go up a bit though. What they should do is cancel the Bush tax cuts EXCEPT for the cuts on capital gains and dividends (with the tax cuts they're taxed roughly the same as we are, with them gone they'll be taxed full marginal rates).

Infrastructure spending is good to spur the economy (what we did here in Canada), entitlement spending (what Obama did) not so much. There is a ton of cuts that can be done to medicare, medicaid and social security that would bring the level of spending per capita back down to that of the pre-Clinton era of self-reliance. Then some more money can be spent on your pie-in-the-sky renewable energy ideas. Ultimately though if the U.S. wants to switch to more renewable made-in-America energy solutions though they have to stop taxing their corporations to death, leave them more retained earnings to invest into the R&D that will be necessary to eventually invent a practical method of cold fusion or whatnot (wind, solar, etc just don't cut it, let's stop wasting money on stuff that don't work).

[Mark77]

Sorry Mark77, but not everyone is doom and gloom. It seems to me that you're quite pessimistic about most types of investment - be it securities, real estate, or even bonds.

Doom and gloom? Japan post-1989 has hardly been an example of doom and gloom. And I am heavily into stocks, especially ones that are traditionally countercyclical to long-term interest rates.

[Cerenity]

actually i did some buying today (or rather yesterday, since its almost 1am friday already :P). may do more buying in the next few sessions. dont know yet.
some stuff is starting to look pretty interesting.

[akib99]

I'm currently thinking of picking up some slw at 34.4. I had just got some at 36 went it all went boom!

Has anyone seen IPSU? Went up 10% yesterday. Had that on my watch list at $12, and didn't go for it since it jumped to $14 out of nowhere.... That was a regret.

[Jungle]

Ha they only added like 1/8 of the jobs expected. Stock futures taking another $hit this morning. Maybe a buying oppertunity for some. (or me?..hmm)

[7jai]

Ha they only added like 1/8 of the jobs expected. Stock futures taking another $hit this morning. Maybe a buying oppertunity for some. (or me?..hmm)

Yeh, the reports show that the US is pretty stagnant right now in terms of growth - so the road to recovery still isn't there yet.

I'm glad I am shorting the entire US market. I don't think the "buy & hold & wait" strategy will work until another 3 - 5 years. We've been in this "recession-type" economy for 3 years now... May take another 3 years to even see improvements.

I'm thinking China is the next big thing to fail - People argue they are the next superpower, but at the same time, noone really knows what's going on within China. I am actually more fearful in investing in China than in the US (even though China is picking up more steam than the US) lol.

[Thalo]

Didn't we go through the exact same thing last spring/summer? Then in the fall economic growth continued and european debt crises were forgotten about. Just be careful shorting and know when to exit your positions.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Well most people could've guessed, which I did, that today was going to be a 'down' day given Wednesday's ADP figures. ;) But not only were employment growth numbers <1/3 of estimates, ISM service numbers were also on the decline (down from 57% to 52%).

Didn't I say S&P would hit around 1302 (see previous posts)? Haha, it's almost a repeat of last summer's scenario after QE1 (post-April 2010). Nevertheless, that doesn't mean the market won't correct between 10-15%. The only question ATM is will there be another short rally to 1370ish levels (prior to the end of the month aka QE2) before the market takes a serious downturn correction...

Although the safe bet would be just to sit on the sidelines and buy some gold commodities in anticipation of a correction towards the low 1200 level on S&P 500. Gold is a safer buy b/c it will gain if the broader market picks up, as well as when there's extra volatility in the market (flight to safety). FYI, bond prices should be on the rise and yields should be falling. :D

Good luck trading everyone! Hopefully next week's market shows some life again.

[pipolchap]

Looks like TRE is trading again. Anybody picking some up?

[xlfe]

oh ya that us dollar is going down
my silver keeps dropping
gold is rising.

going to hold my positions till confidence is back.
so not much trading for me today and probably a week

[Stryker]

It would be nice to see a few dividend paying stocks trading at their yearly lows, but not much of that. A couple of insurance companies and retailers are looking reasonable to cheap, but I already own them. Still slowly building up cash, until a few interesting equities come along.