Market update

[rfdrfd]

For those interested in stocks, not sure which thread to put this in, so started a new one. Here are some market charts with zones drawn in for free for my peeps here ! (part of my paid subscription)

For the next week or two, we are closer to a demand zone (than a supply zone), hence, the market is more likely to continue downward. If you are doing long term investing, I wouldn't enter any long positions until we get down to these levels.


Weekly SPY (S&P 500):

http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/7987/spyv.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/560/spyv.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

Weekly QQQ: (Nasdaq)

http://img807.imageshack.us/img807/894/qqqkb.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/807/qqqkb.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[jedi1648]

Since your post of June 26 that " the market is more likely to continue downward. If you are doing long term investing, I wouldn't enter any long positions until we get down to these levels,", the stock markets have gone up, especially on friday when european banks bail out was known. Care to have another prediction?

[Fox2k]

Since your post of June 26 that " the market is more likely to continue downward. If you are doing long term investing, I wouldn't enter any long positions until we get down to these levels,", the stock markets have gone up, especially on friday when european banks bail out was known. Care to have another prediction?

Sooo...you're basing your long-term projections on two days of price action?

[rfdrfd]

Well said Fox. But no, mine is not a prediction, it s what the charts show us.

SPY price due to the "news" jumped up right into an area of Supply, so let's see what happens this week. In fact, I'll post an OTA SPY trade. We are in this zone right now. So if anyone wants to take this, feel free. Stop is there to get you out incase you are wrong.

5/24/12 (30min)
Short 136.09-136.38
Stop above 136.38
Target 1 135.03
Target 2 133.37

[brunes]

Sooo...you're basing your long-term projections on two days of price action?

The idea of doing any kind of long-term investing using TA as a guide is ridiculous on it's face, so I don't even know what the OP in this thread is about anyway.

Long term investing is based on fundamentals, not short-term TA-based hunches.

[rfdrfd]

The idea of doing any kind of long-term investing using TA as a guide is ridiculous on it's face, so I don't even know what the OP in this thread is about anyway.

Long term investing is based on fundamentals, not short-term TA-based hunches.

Actually you are 100% incorrect. TA is for all timeframes, prices and charts are fractal.

Timeframes you should be looking at charts for: (always use 3 timeframes)

Position (weeks or months): Monthly, weekly, daily (maybe even 60min)
Swing (days or weeks): Weekly, Daily, 60min (maybe 30min)
Intraday (days): Daily, 60min, 15min
Scalping (9am-4:30pm): 60min, 15min, 5min (maybe 1 min)

Technical analysis is for ALL timeframes, short, medium and long term. The longer the timeframe, the STRONGER the levels are; the bigger your profits.

For position trading, one should follow the "Trend trading" technique. Very effective and highly profitable.

[brunes]

Actually you are 100% incorrect. TA is for all timeframes, prices and charts are fractal.


We can agree to disagree. I do not believe TA voodoo on-average results in any better performance in *ANY* time-frame, and most certainly not long term investing.

If there was a TA paradigm that worked, then everyone would be doing it, and then the paradigm would not work anymore.

[charliebrown]

TA aside for a min; seems like overseas mkt is betting on a rate cut by the ECB and perhaps more easing from China and other central banks

[jedi1648]

A Random Walk Down Wall Street, written by Burton Malkiel, a Princeton economist,introduced the random walk hypothesis. Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of random walk. Malkiel examines some popular investing techniques, including technical analysis and fundamental analysis in light of academic research studies of these methods. Through detailed analysis, he notes significant flaws in both techniques, concluding that, for most investors, following these methods will produce inferior results over passive strategies. Malkiel has a similar critique for methods of selecting actively managed mutual funds based upon past performance.

[rfdrfd]

http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3922.cfm

[angelok]

For position trading, one should follow the "Trend trading" technique. Very effective and highly profitable.

Yes, fancy words for "zero sum".

[rfdrfd]

2012 July 18: markets are heading higher, SPY is making higher highs and higher lows.

[rfdrfd]

I'm too lazy to post a chart, but today, markets hit the bottom of the lower trending (up) line. All indexes. It may go down a little bit, but as per charts tell us, markets will go up from here each day. Until we hit a quality supply zone (will post back when that happens)

Hence, in our OTA online class today, everyone bought long, IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY. I did QQQ and was profitable today. Still holding 50% of my position, stop loss is already at breakeven, so right now, I cannot lose. Playing with house money as they say.

I also bought some more of my favorite mutual fund in my RRSP (BMO148). Amazing monthly dividend.

[rfdrfd]

Yes, fancy words for "zero sum".

Not sure why you said that. Two different things all together. Trend trading is for longer term investing, using Bolllinger Bands, 20 day EMA and a set of very simple rules. Highly profitable and best for RRSP accounts type of thing.

[rfdrfd]

We can agree to disagree. I do not believe TA voodoo on-average results in any better performance in *ANY* time-frame, and most certainly not long term investing.

If there was a TA paradigm that worked, then everyone would be doing it, and then the paradigm would not work anymore.

Sorry, didn't see your post until now. TA is also for long term investing. One method is Trend trading. It works better if you use longer term timeframes. Eg. Monthly > Weekly > Daily.

Your everyone doing it then it wouldn't work logic on the surface sounds right, but actually there is 1 difference. In the stock market, prices are moved not by EVERYONE, but by BIG Money institutions. If everyone had the same amoutn of money, then yes, your logic works. Everyone thinks to sell now, then price of that stock CANNOT move up.

However, what if 100 (average income) people decide to sell ABC stock, but 10 (very rich) traders decide to buy ABC. Then ABC would go up instead of down.

The point of my school OTA teaches is, you follow the Institutional buying and selling. Act at their levels and follow them. if they are buying at $10, we buy. If they are selling at $12, we sell. And how do you know they are selling at $12? Its all on the charts. Big money selling cannot lie, its on the charts.

The hard part is to learn how to READ the charts.

[S5]

I also bought some more of my favorite mutual fund in my RRSP (BMO148). Amazing monthly dividend.

:facepalm: Not that anyone needed it but further confirmation the poster above doesn't know what he's talking about.
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110112/GIDANHALLETTATL

[rfdrfd]

:facepalm: Not that anyone needed it but further confirmation the poster above doesn't know what he's talking about.
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110112/GIDANHALLETTATL

Just because I pick one mutual fund that One other analyst claims can't be sustained does not prove that I don't know what I'm talking about. Your analogy is very flawed. I suppose you can do better?

BMO148 price has not changed much throughout the years, due to it is made of equities and bonds. Monthly dividends have been more than offset any price depreciation. For myself, my overall net cost is positive and getting monthy dividends.

I suppose you believe EVERYTHING analysts tell you too.

and I guess you conveniently ignored all the recent profitable trades I've posted in the threads in this forum too eh? Why don't you post some ?

[FunSave22]

I also bought some more of my favorite mutual fund in my RRSP (BMO148). Amazing monthly dividend.
I think you are confusing distribution and dividend.

Most of the distribution consists of return of capital, which is useless to an investor who is in growth mode. It's mainly used by the retired to get a steady flow of income while drawing down their capital.


Looking at the annual report the distribution consists of:
(in thousands of dollars)



Dividends: 84,001
Interest: 145,861
Distributions from investment trust units: 3,170
Securities lending revenue: 610
Return of capital: 276,070



http://www.bmo.com/pdf/mf/prospectus/en/bmo148_annirpt-Eng.pdf


And this doesn't take into account costs. The total costs were 79,807 and these costs will normally be paid out of the dividends and/or interest income.

The total distribution was 472,855. Meaning over 58% of the distribution was return of capital. There's nothing amazing about this.



----



Taking a look at the performance numbers: (these assume all distributions are reinvested)

5 years: 2.53%
10 years: 5.31%

http://www4.bmo.com/mutualfund_navigator/0,4695,35649_26264844,00.html?




The fund is basically a balanced fund spilt 50/50 between bonds and Canadian equity. So look at the eFunds versions of these two indexes.


TD Canadian Bond Index-e

5 years: 6.36%
10 years: 5.89%



TD Canadian Index-e

5 years: -0.95%
10 years: 7.27%


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/summary/?id=53617
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/summary/?id=52602


So you could have just indexed and split your investment 50/50 between the two indexes and easily beaten the BMO mutual fund.

[rfdrfd]

You know what, you both are correct. BMO148 is a bad one. Such high dividend % is not sustainable, even simple math and logic can tell anyone that. Also, I found they do not decrease amoutn of units but reflected in a drop in price. I don't have enough understanding of this type of fund, so I am going to look hard into this and sell this as soon as possible (hopefully at a higher price). Thank you very much for pointing it out.




:facepalm: Not that anyone needed it but further confirmation the poster above doesn't know what he's talking about.
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20110112/GIDANHALLETTATL


I think you are confusing distribution and dividend.

Most of the distribution consists of return of capital, which is useless to an investor who is in growth mode. It's mainly used by the retired to get a steady flow of income while drawing down their capital.


Looking at the annual report the distribution consists of:
(in thousands of dollars)



Dividends: 84,001
Interest: 145,861
Distributions from investment trust units: 3,170
Securities lending revenue: 610
Return of capital: 276,070



http://www.bmo.com/pdf/mf/prospectus/en/bmo148_annirpt-Eng.pdf


And this doesn't take into account costs. The total costs were 79,807 and these costs will normally be paid out of the dividends and/or interest income.

The total distribution was 472,855. Meaning over 58% of the distribution was return of capital. There's nothing amazing about this.



----



Taking a look at the performance numbers: (these assume all distributions are reinvested)

5 years: 2.53%
10 years: 5.31%

http://www4.bmo.com/mutualfund_navigator/0,4695,35649_26264844,00.html?




The fund is basically a balanced fund spilt 50/50 between bonds and Canadian equity. So look at the eFunds versions of these two indexes.


TD Canadian Bond Index-e

5 years: 6.36%
10 years: 5.89%



TD Canadian Index-e

5 years: -0.95%
10 years: 7.27%


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/summary/?id=53617
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/summary/?id=52602


So you could have just indexed and split your investment 50/50 between the two indexes and easily beaten the BMO mutual fund.

[boipinoi604]

I doubt anyone can come to concrete conclusion based on market fluctuations.
One maybe very well lucky to predict short term, but I really don't see anybody make good use of charts for the long run.
According to Jeremy Siegal, a technical analysis(TA) may get out of the market crash of 87' but will subsequently miss the bullrun until the TA feels the market had settle.
He suggest that unless the market take big plunges for TAs to exit and big bull runs for TAs to ride, a TA will trade in and out of the market and incrue alot of trading fees and taxes.
Past performance is no indication of future results.
IMHO

At the end of the day, you do what you feel is more comfortable and if you're a professional and posses superior ability (an edge) to perform technical analyst, then by all means. But for the average joe like me, I'll just stick to asset allocation.

[ccyk]

Amazon Misses, Forecasts Inverse Profit
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/26/2012 - 16:05

Another epic retail disappointment:

AMAZON.COM 2Q EPS 1C, EST. 3C
AMAZON.COM 2Q SALES $12.83B, EST. $12.90B

And the kicker, proving that the company has finally gone "inverese" profit:

AMZN SEES 3Q OPER LOSS $50M-$350M, EST. PROFIT $119.6M - yes, negative
AMZN SEES 3Q NET SALES $12.9B-$14.3B, EST. $14.11

Mario Draghi promises that whatever AMZN loses in profit, it will make up in volume: "beleeeeve me." In other news, the US consumer is fine.

[ccyk]

Starbucks $SBUX Cuts Q4 EPS from 46-48c to 44-45c, vs. cons. 48c; sees FY13 $2.04-$2.14, vs. cons. $2.28

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
-NasdaqGS

52.40 Up 1.99(3.96%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 47.60 Down 4.81 (9.17%) 4:18PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

[ccyk]

FB Reports Q2 EPS $0.12 vs $0.12 Est; Revenues $1.18B vs $1.15B Est

Facebook, Inc. (FB)
-NasdaqGS

26.84 Down 2.50(8.50%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 25.30 Down 1.59 (5.76%) 4:20PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

[ccyk]

FB Reports Q2 EPS $0.12 vs $0.12 Est; Revenues $1.18B vs $1.15B Est

Facebook, Inc. (FB)
-NasdaqGS

26.84 Down 2.50(8.50%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 25.30 Down 1.59 (5.76%) 4:20PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

FB is such a dog, epic short target all the way to $10

[ccyk]

FB Reports Q2 EPS $0.12 vs $0.12 Est; Revenues $1.18B vs $1.15B Est

Facebook, Inc. (FB)
-NasdaqGS

26.84 Down 2.50(8.50%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 25.30 Down 1.59 (5.76%) 4:20PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
wow After Hours: 24.27 Down 2.57 (9.59%) 4:26PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

[ccyk]

wow After Hours: 24.27 Down 2.57 (9.59%) 4:26PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

After Hours: 23.83 Down 3.01 (11.23%) 4:35PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

lol

[rfdrfd]

2012 July 18: markets are heading higher, SPY is making higher highs and higher lows.

My statement holds true, market kept going higher. Eventhough Europe problems isn't solved yet, trend on the charts is up still and it came true.

[rfdrfd]

SPY hit a supply zone today, so a pull back, but the trend is showing up side still. Major supply/resistance is up at 140.32 area.

[boipinoi604]

If you guys watch tech analysis look up Ira Einstein on youtube. He does a video run down on market trend on the overall market.

I used to follow it but I realized past result are no indication of future returns. Great guy though seems like he knows what he's doing. An actual analysist.

http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures?gl=CA&hl=en&client=mv-google&nomobile=1

[rfdrfd]

If you don't already know, one should NOT trade today or tomorrow. Today Ben Bernanke is speaking (or shoudl I say spoke already), hence market had a sell off at 2:15pm.

Tomorrow, ECB announced they were going to announce something big.... so if its good news, markets will go up. Or if its not good enough news, market will go down.

How you play these is, AFTER the news, if price comes into your pre-planned supply zone => short. Demand zone=> buy

[manyapples]

RFDRFD, what specific stocks are you planning on trading after the announcement? I want to follow along! Please also post potential entry and exit points.

[rfdrfd]

RFDRFD, what specific stocks are you planning on trading after the announcement? I want to follow along! Please also post potential entry and exit points.

I'll try, but I can't promise. It takes time to post here which cuts into my analysis time. As always, I'll suggest you to get an education like I did, so you can LEARN how to fish, rather than follow fishermen around aimlessly.


Right now I'm still sitting pretty on RIMM short. :)

Thanks to the Announcement today, markets are selling off big.

[rfdrfd]

Something to watch out for:

Larry Berman (Canada): http://watch.bnn.ca/bermans-call/july-2012/bermans-call-july-30-2012/#clip730711

Same idea:
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2012/08/aggressive-indices-and-sectors-flashing-a-warning.html#.UB6ZVvZlTsa

[rfdrfd]

This Friday (Aug 31) is going to be a market mover. Ben Bernanke is going to speak. If he doesn't offer any concrete sign of QE3, then the market could see a sharp sell off. These few weeks, the market has slowly grinded higher, despite the bad Europe situation, unemployment rates, China's growth slowing, all because people are hoping for QE3 to come.

So, if you are holding stocks for long, just beware of Friday, incase bad news happens.

[can2000]

This Friday (Aug 31) is going to be a market mover. Ben Bernanke is going to speak. If he doesn't offer any concrete sign of QE3, then the market could see a sharp sell off. These few weeks, the market has slowly grinded higher, despite the bad Europe situation, unemployment rates, China's growth slowing, all because people are hoping for QE3 to come.

So, if you are holding stocks for long, just beware of Friday, incase bad news happens.
Friday 2:30pm? Thanks

[rfdrfd]

Here's a nice chart that shows the effect on the Market when QE1 and 2 came in. Note the effects is decreasing. QE3 is now here. BTW: this is roughly what Japan has done, inlimited QE, and they've been in a recession for 20+ yrs.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/char*****chers/2012/09/quantitative-easing-and-the-sp-500-since-2008.html

[rfdrfd]

Reason why markets sold off. We hit a supply zone:

A: 2012 Sep 14 - formed a supply zone

2012 Oct 5 = price hit the supply zone, as sellers > buyers at this zone, price drops off. To where? (B) is a demand zone from Sept 10-11. However, its already been hit once from Sept 26. So, when price goes back to this area (B), it may not hold and continue to drop

C: a very strong demand zone from weekly chart. Price has a much higher probability to turn when it comes into this zone.


An excellent setup would be: After supply zone was drawn from (A) 146.76 to 148.11.... next time price comes into this zone, short it. Which happened on Oct 5, short at say 147. Now, price is 144.19 = 2.81 profit per share (1.9% gain) As mentioned above, price may drop all the way down to (C) 142.08 area.



http://imageshack.us/a/img12/6453/spy201210.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/12/spy201210.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[brunes]

Reason why markets sold off. We hit a supply zone:


The markets sold off because of the horrible IMF report predicting a possible recession rebound. It had nothing to do with any supply zones.

[wm009]

The markets sold off because of the horrible IMF report predicting a possible recession rebound. It had nothing to do with any supply zones.

This isn't the first time he's claimed victory for the technique when news moved the stock.

[ACC-Major]

The markets sold off because of the horrible IMF report predicting a possible recession rebound. It had nothing to do with any supply zones.


This isn't the first time he's claimed victory for the technique when news moved the stock.

I am with rfdrfd this time lol.
IMF talked about this thing for a while, and the market moved up.
The market didn't react to the news fast enough. Therefore, the market sold off due to supply zone.

ahh just kidding, I have no idea why the market sold off. I can not predict people's emotion lol, or computers' emotion for that matter these days.

[Mark77]

The markets sold off because of the horrible IMF report predicting a possible recession rebound. It had nothing to do with any supply zones.

Really? Just looked like random noise today. I'm always amazed at how news commentators will try and come up with all sorts of bat-sh*t crazy correlations between news events and the stock market. Nobody gives two hoots about the IMF or their so-called 'predictions'. Actually many of the IMF's predictions are quite positive for the Canadian stock market.

[brunes]

Really? Just looked like random noise today..

This thread is from yesterday not today.... the IMF report came out after close of the market on Monday, thus it moved the market on Tuesday because the IMF is a market mover. This is not TA nor is it rocket science. The IMF report was huge news, it was all over business news and also on mainstream news outlets (you know financial news is big when the mainstream picks it up), so of course it moved the market.



ahh just kidding, I have no idea why the market sold off. I can not predict people's emotion lol, or computers' emotion for that matter these days.

News worse than expected causes a sell off. The IMF report was worse than expected. </story>

[ACC-Major]

Really? Just looked like random noise today. I'm always amazed at how news commentators will try and come up with all sorts of bat-sh*t crazy correlations between news events and the stock market. Nobody gives two hoots about the IMF or their so-called 'predictions'. Actually many of the IMF's predictions are quite positive for the Canadian stock market.

The media is like that, we got to live with it lol.
Market plunged due to Ben Bernanke not talking this and that, stocks plunged again due to Ben Bernanke talking about this and that.
Just ignore the noise and buy when they go on sale.

[rfdrfd]

You guys are still not wanting to believe it. Yet I show you time and time again, I shows you things BEFORE it happens.
News is what the businesses and institutions tell you why something moved the way it did. Look at the timing of things.

Look at my chart:

1) After the drop happened from A, you draw the red zone = Supply zone.
2) next time price comes up to this Supply zone, it has a very high probability it will drop
3) price came back into this zone from the candle at B, what happened? Price (S&P) dropped didn't it? News calls it IMF report came out, but didn't the chart already tell you, next time price comes up to this zone, it will drop? (see point 2 above)

And WHERE will the price stop dropping? Very high probability to the weekly demand zone (white lines). 142.08 to 140.13

Look what happened today.... S&P kept on dropping didn't it? 143.28 (SPY).


Guys you gotta understand, you DO NOT trade news. Since you cannot predict what the price can do when news comes out. What else came out the day IMF report came out? I bet you like 12 other news came out too. So which one do you look at? You don't.

It is ALL due to supply and demand. Very very simple.

So, let's see if the market will turn back up when it reaches 142.08 to 140.13 area. If it does, then I again proved to you demand zone and supply zone works. I bet you will find another NEWS (good) that will come out to explain whey price stopped dropping around that area. Then all of you will say "see! Its NEWS!". Yet, I already predicted BEFORE any news came out, where prices will likely turn.

If you still disagree with this, please re-read this post again. I'm not making this up myself guys, its from the school with hundreds of instructors, many of which are Market makers that worked there. They lived and breathed this for years. They are the ones that moved prices.

[rfdrfd]

For all you guys that keep on believing its some bad news that cause the market to sell off, you are still eating the crap that they are feeding to you.

Market sells off due to Europe crisis. Ya, makes sense, but didn't the Europe problem happened back many months ago? So has S&P gone down? No, S&P actually went up since June 2012. Why? Shouldn't it go down?

Then suddenly in Sept 2012, S&P starts turning down. Europe crisis again? Ya Right.... like it didn't cause markets to go down back in June, but waited till Sept to go down? No. Go back to a weekly chart and you'll see the S&P had a strong drop off back 2008 January. (We call it supply zone). THIS is why S&P sold off in Sept 2012. Because big money is waiting to sell stocks at this price.

[rfdrfd]

here you go, some GOOD news, but turns out the stock price does the opposite: News is just another avenue for companies to trick you.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/proof-why-we-not-using-fundamentals-market-1201524/9/#post15529514

[rfdrfd]

As I posted on Post #37 (page 3), S&P is coming down exactly as stated. Yes it went up yesterday as a correction, but today, came crashing back down, as it is supposed to. Coming closer to the weekly demand zone (high of 142.08, white lines below).

Chart pattern followers, notice this is a classic DOUBLE TOP ? The projected target for this down move = 141. Which is smack dab in the middle of the weekly demand zone (white lines). Gee, how things all line up

http://imageshack.us/a/img525/5312/20121012spy.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/525/20121012spy.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[rfdrfd]

So what does this all mean for your stocks ? If you are holding somethng for long and is making profits = smarter to exit now and lock in your gains. If you are long and losing = better exit now and just take the loss (and as always, I hope you had a plan before you entered the stock. When to exit for loss, max $ loss).

If you are in short, then hold it, markets will help you.

[jedi1648]

The markets were up on monday, and are up so far on tuesday. Hope Obama has a good debate tonight.

[thefleet]

i wonder hows that short call going lol

[rfdrfd]

i wonder hows that short call going lol

Which one?

[wesboag]

So what does this all mean for your stocks ? If you are holding somethng for long and is making profits = smarter to exit now and lock in your gains. If you are long and losing = better exit now and just take the loss (and as always, I hope you had a plan before you entered the stock. When to exit for loss, max $ loss).

If you are in short, then hold it, markets will help you.

What happened to your supply zones?

[ACC-Major]

give rfdrfd a break guys.
He is just a young guy who got lost in this world.

Just like what I have said many posts ago (not on this thread I though), he will learn an expensive and valuable lesson over time.

[charliebrown]

give rfdrfd a break guys.
He is just a young guy who got lost in this world.

Just like what I have said many posts ago (not on this thread I though), he will learn an expensive and valuable lesson over time.

Great...you guys just jinxed it; the markets will take a correction tmr and he will be able to gloat

[thefleet]

Which one?
the few posts above where you recommended if your short and hold...i just hope no one actually listened and actually did that

[Daf]

Rdrfd u buy mutual funds? I am shocked with the high fees

[ACC-Major]

Great...you guys just jinxed it; the markets will take a correction tmr and he will be able to gloat

I just got some money from my parents to invest. I wish the market is down so I can put it to work.
Ironically, they seems to always give me the money when the market is rallying. I couldn't get in at good prices.
I asked them for money when the market was at its low basically every year, and they told me to stay out for a bit and wait for the recovery.

[rfdrfd]

the few posts above where you recommended if your short and hold...i just hope no one actually listened and actually did that

That's the beauty about using technical analysis. You get real numbers to work with. Trade your plan. You hold onto your positions until either your stop loss price hits or your Targets hit.

When I recommended shorts hold it, anyone shorting would have already made gains, Target 1 would have for sure hit at that time, and one should move stop to breakeven. So yes, markets went up after my post, but if one was shorting, price would have either stayed above the stop (still in play) or hit the stop and gotten out (but profited 50% or whatever % you exited for profit when Target 1 hit.

That's trade management 101.

For example: I still have 2 shorts in play, both profiting still. Trade my plan. Either stop hits or Target 1 hits. If it goes sideways, just sit on hands and let price do its thing.

[rfdrfd]

give rfdrfd a break guys.
He is just a young guy who got lost in this world.

Just like what I have said many posts ago (not on this thread I though), he will learn an expensive and valuable lesson over time.

I just read your other post, you are actually not a young dude? I'm really surprised. From all the non-adult like comments you give me all the time. For the record, I'm not a young guy. I won't say anymore cause I'm old enough to remember internet when it used to be anonymous and I liked it that way, now everyone exposes themselves for real on the internet (Facebook, twitter, webcams). Ppl still don't see the dangers of doing that and ID theft.

[rfdrfd]

Rdrfd u buy mutual funds? I am shocked with the high fees

Yes, I still hold 2-3. Because of their stupid Deferred fee for selling it. I sold like 80% of my funds back a few years ago when the stock market started crashing. Maybe it was 1999-2000? Cause after holding 10 yrs of it, I was like up $500 on one, $800 on another, then negative $700(?) on another. I was like WTF, should have bought a GIC 10 yrs ago for like 8% ? (I forget, but I remember buying GICs when I was really young for like 10% when my Dad used to pool my money from part time jobs with his money to buy GICs)

[rfdrfd]

What happened to your supply zones?

Do you mean demand zone? Supply zone was the red lines where price turned down (which happened). And how far down will it go is where demand zones are. SPY didn't go down to the weekly zones as posted above, it turned before it.

The way to use these zones was, SPY was moving up in the last few weeks, so after it made a big drop from the first time (see above picture), you draw the red lines, next time price comes back into the red lines (Supply zone) you short (SPY or a weak stock). That happened on Oct 5 (~$147). Then SPY dropped big time for 5 days. So you would have profited for 5 days. Of course you'd have targets set before hand. So you exit 50-60% at Target 1, then move stop to breakeven.

And if you see today, SPY is at 145.54. And your breakeven would have been at $147 (SPY). So your short on SPY (or ur stock) still would be in play right now.

[rfdrfd]

You can pull chart up yourself, but here it is anyways. SPY rallied up today into another SZ. Let's see what price does tomorrow and this week. It does have the reason to go down from here. As you can see, price still hasn't gotten back up to the original SZ yet from where it dropped from (red lines up at the top)

If one wanted to play this, one would have shorted today, say 145 (just picking a number). Stop would be like at 145.90. Target 1 would be say 144.66 (about there). Profit of 1.24 per share, for a risk of $0.90 per share.

Right now, futures are down.

http://imageshack.us/a/img195/8397/20121017spy.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/195/20121017spy.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[ACC-Major]

I just read your other post, you are actually not a young dude? I'm really surprised. From all the non-adult like comments you give me all the time. For the record, I'm not a young guy. I won't say anymore cause I'm old enough to remember internet when it used to be anonymous and I liked it that way, now everyone exposes themselves for real on the internet (Facebook, twitter, webcams). Ppl still don't see the dangers of doing that and ID theft.

You are a good guy, you just want to share what you've learned from OTA, and hope to help others learn how to make money in stocks.
Just like you, I like to help people to get on the right track, and you are a target in my book.
We may have different views in how the stock market works. But our intentions are good.

If my method fails, I will for sure PM you for help. And I am sure you will share your knowledge in technical analysis with me. I may even go take a course at OTA.
If your method fails, you are welcome to PM me for help. But please don't ask for money as I am always fully invested, and I am living on cheque to cheque.

[rfdrfd]

You can pull chart up yourself, but here it is anyways. SPY rallied up today into another SZ. Let's see what price does tomorrow and this week. It does have the reason to go down from here. As you can see, price still hasn't gotten back up to the original SZ yet from where it dropped from (red lines up at the top)

If one wanted to play this, one would have shorted today, say 145 (just picking a number). Stop would be like at 145.90. Target 1 would be say 144.66 (about there). Profit of 1.24 per share, for a risk of $0.90 per share.

Right now, futures are down.


Markets didn't respect this medium SZ, this trade just got stopped out (145.90) (if one took it)

[jedi1648]

The markets are up again on wednesday, three days in a row.

[rfdrfd]

Here we are, down yesterday, and today as well. I found it strange that market would go turn on Oct 15, before it reached any true Demand zones. Let's see what happens next week, maybe it will go back down to $143.xx (SPY)

[rfdrfd]

There you go gentlemen, big enough drop for you today in S&P ?? 1 day of trading (drop) wiped out THREE days of gains.

Anyone honorable enough to care to say I was not incorrect when I said "hold on to your shorts and take profits on your longs?"

[TheRed]

There you go gentlemen, big enough drop for you today in S&P ?? 1 day of trading (drop) wiped out THREE days of gains.

Anyone honorable enough to care to say I was not incorrect when I said "hold on to your shorts and take profits on your longs?"

What software are you using? Is this a good time to buy? When is the bottom?

[rfdrfd]

What software are you using? Is this a good time to buy? When is the bottom?

www.freestockcharts.com Any charting website can be used. Google, Yahoo, etc. Just make sure to change it to Candlestick.

Good time to buy ? Definitely no. Market is not done dropping yet. See the chart in my previous post #62. (see below, i'll post it again). The next place this market may turn back up is near $141 on SPY, inside the zone where I typed in "Russ Weekly Demand Zone". Russ Allen is one of the OTA instructors. That was the demand zone he pointed out on a weekly chart.

Also, technical experts will tell you, Yesterday's (Thurs) candle formed a perfect "Spinning top" candle. This candle pattern means the buyers = sellers. Market is indecisive. So after 2-3 days of run up, it forms a spinning top = danger of changing direction. And today, it totally did.

See everyone, from my post #48 from Oct 12, it came true, I gave you all 5 days of warning AHEAD of time. Okay, I'm just goofing around. But charts do show, there is no reason for S&P to go up from Oct 15 to 18. So, today, 1 day cancelled ALL of that.

Charts tell the story everyone. Just have to learn how to read them properly.

http://imageshack.us/a/img507/8219/spy20121019.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/spy20121019.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[ACC-Major]

so one candle = 1 day?
so we have a down day on Monday, and 3 up days afterwards. And finally it's 1 big down day on Friday.
so SPY broke even for the week?

Man, this chart reading is much more complicated than reading the whole annual report of a public company lol.

[Sauerkraut]

What software are you using?

Dog & Pony show...Version 3 Release 17

[rfdrfd]

It depends on what time frame you select on the chart. Look at the top of my chart, if it says DAILY = 1 candle = 1 day. So, if you want to do LONG term investing, then switch to Monthly, Weekly charts and do the exact same analysis (once you know). If you want FAST money, then switch to 60min, 15min, 5min. Do the exact same analysis. Charts are fractal as my instructors say. Once you learn it once, it applies everywhere in all asset classes (Stocks, Forex, Options, etc)

I'm not sure if SPY broke even for the week, because I don't need to know that to trade the way I was taught. Guess you can google that if you wanna know. Once I enter a stock trade, I leave it until a) it hits my target or b) it stops out with a loss.

TA is beautiful once you learn the basics on how to read it. Everything is in real time and there are no lies. Get to know a few stocks, you'll soon realize price movement just repeats itself because BIG money are trading it like that. Just have to follow them. Like LULU, it always does something similar in the morning, just hop on this pattern train and make money.



so one candle = 1 day?
so we have a down day on Monday, and 3 up days afterwards. And finally it's 1 big down day on Friday.
so SPY broke even for the week?

Man, this chart reading is much more complicated than reading the whole annual report of a public company lol.

[rfdrfd]

What software are you using? Is this a good time to buy? When is the bottom?

I forgot to say, markets may be on the beginning of a big correction now and the trend may now be down. So don't always think of BUYING. There's something called Shorting (sell high, buy low). You need a margin account to short, but if you cannot, you can always buy inverse ETFs.

Yes you can BUY something now, but the odds are against you. If the market (big ocean) is coming down, it will pull almost every stock with it down further. Even giant Apple gets pulled down.

Trends are defined by the HIGHS and LOWS. Looking at SPY (S&P 500), my chart posted or any charting website, the HIGHS are getting lower right? The LOWS are also making newer lows. This is a DOWN trend.

In an UP trend you do NOT short, you buy to go long.
In a DOWN trend you do NOT buy to go long, you short when price comes back up to a Supply zone. <---- this is where we may be now

To really confirm if we are in a down trend, we need to see if SPY will break the last low (~142.40).

[rfdrfd]

There you are, coming down today as expected. Still got some room to go down to yet. It may go back up a little tomorrow, but still got room to go down

[rfdrfd]

Bingo ! where did SPY drop to? 141.65 as I type right now. Exactly into the zone where I said price would drop to. Post chart later when I have time.

So, if the weekly demand zone is strong enough, price should start to rise. May take a few days, but the probability says price should move up from here. It may not, but trade what the market gives you not what YOU think.

I guess its too much to expect any credit/thumbs up from this group of people here? I guess the silence is what I'll get and I'll take that as a good thing.

[William W]

Bingo ! where did SPY drop to? 141.65 as I type right now. Exactly into the zone where I said price would drop to. Post chart later when I have time.



Great call. Based on the current trend, how much further do you think it will go before the next support level? And is this all part of the annual September/October drop?

Do you think this is a buying opportunity prior to the annual Santa Claus rally? Or you don't think there would be one this year.

[rfdrfd]

This is a daily chart of the S&P 500. (You trade this via the ETF: SPY).

It formed an almost perfect Head & Shoulders pattern. As I posted back on Post 62 and before, the Supply zone (SZ on the chart below) is where your trade should happen. There are many things going for this setup (shorting SPY or buying inverse ETF of the S&P):

1) it is in a good supply zone
2) H&S pattern was forming, when price was at Location 2, that is the right shoulder and that is how you profit from a H&S pattern, you SHORT at the peak or near it of the right shoulder

The projected measured move of a H&S pattern is the distance from the TOP of the head to the neck line (purple line), and then you extend the same distance down. See the charts with the 2 purple lines. Target S&P = location 3 (zone). Which also happens to be a Demand zone.

S&P is moving up higher right now, because S&P it at a DZ and the US dollar is at a SZ. This is the perfect storm, everything correlating.

But like OTA taught us, patterns don't dictate price movements, it helps, but you just need to trade PRICE. You short at location 1 because it was a SZ made from the previous drop to the left. Where your target ? Location 3 because its a strong Demand zone. Done. Translated to SPY:

1) short at 146.91
2) target at 141.03 <--- hit today Profit = 5.88 per share = 4% gain, in 12 days


http://imageshack.us/a/img338/1020/spxe.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/338/spxe.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[rfdrfd]

Great call. Based on the current trend, how much further do you think it will go before the next support level? And is this all part of the annual September/October drop?

Do you think this is a buying opportunity prior to the annual Santa Claus rally? Or you don't think there would be one this year.

Hey, thanks so much, didn't think anyone was brave enough to say something nice. :)

I wouldn't trade based on "santa claus" rally, because that can happen in Dec or Nov or Jan, its just a name people call it. Right now, S&P is at a demand zone (what you call support, but our instructors tell us one doesn't trade on support and resistance, we trade on Demand and Supply), so S&P should rally from here. But how high? We'll have to see if it can go above the last high of 143.67 (on SPY).

If SPY doesn't go higher, and continues down, watch 140.13. If price can hold above this, then markets should go up and that's a good point to buy in. If 140.13 is broken, it will continue down more. How far down? Well, let's see how the above scenarios I listed plays out first.

We trade what the market gives us, not what we think it will go.

[rfdrfd]

A correction, my trading community friends just corrected me, it shouldn't be called a Head & Shoulders per se, because the middle (head) did not trade higher than the shoulders. Technicians are calling this a triple top. (Usually double tops happens at the peak, but this time was a triple one).

[rfdrfd]

What happened to your supply zones?


give rfdrfd a break guys.
He is just a young guy who got lost in this world.

Just like what I have said many posts ago (not on this thread I though), he will learn an expensive and valuable lesson over time.


the few posts above where you recommended if your short and hold...i just hope no one actually listened and actually did that

There you have it folks. What you all saw and assumed my call was incorrect is called a "bull trap". Did you know that Citigroup on Oct 12 came out and said "This is a great time to buy equities". That is why markets rallied up for that day. Then the next day, it rallied more as more people believe Citigroup's news and bought more. Guess who was on the other side of that trade? Citigroup selling or shorting.

Then, Oct 18-19 happened, BOOM, institutions sold off, and everyone that bought stocks on Oct 15, 16, 17 have lost everything and today, was even lower.

Don't fall for bull traps folks. Its all in the charts, people lie, charts do not.

[squadz]

Following your threads for advice, keep it up rfdrfd

[rfdrfd]

Following your threads for advice, keep it up rfdrfd

Since you being so kind :) I'll share this with you (fresh from yesterday's online live session). Hope I dont get into trouble. This is from Sam Seiden, our VP of Education. He is basically "God" of markets in our eyes, google him if you want. Sam S. called the top and bottom of the 2008 crash. Google it. Our nickname for him is: "The Seiden"

Anyways, here's his levels on the S&P (SPY). See his weekly supply zone? That is EXACTLY where market turned down. Amazing isn't it? Lots of traders from OTA shorted SPY at that point and made tons of profits. See his Demand zone is basically the same as the one I"ve been posting here. So around SPY $140, markets may turn back up. But he pointed out this isn't a very strong zone, so price may not hold.

Correlate that with the USD. (lower chart). If you didn't know, USD and Markets are inversely related. Notice how the USD hit Demand zone the SAME time SPY hit that weekly supply zone? THAT is a perfect storm, hence, makes that short on SPY even stronger.

http://imageshack.us/a/img12/4748/spy20121025.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/12/spy20121025.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

http://imageshack.us/a/img18/807/usd20121025.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/usd20121025.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[wesboag]

Your posts remind me of an eleven year old girl’s diary entries.

[rfdrfd]

Whao, tons of great opportunities today. MO, VRSN, CA

I'm up 2%-3% on all of them

[rfdrfd]

He says it 1000x better than I can, and he gave this away for free today:

http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/4101.cfm

[rfdrfd]

There you are boys. SPY came up from the Demand zone as posted last week. SPY price never broken below the lower line, thus, showing you how good the Demand zone drawing was (by my OTA instructors).

So, from this thread, you can see I showed you exactly where the markets would turn down AND where it would turn up. Both happened exactly as shown. Enough said.

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/2489/spy20121101.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/spy20121101.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[thefleet]

There you go gentlemen, big enough drop for you today in S&P ?? 1 day of trading (drop) wiped out THREE days of gains.

Anyone honorable enough to care to say I was not incorrect when I said "hold on to your shorts and take profits on your longs?"

slow down buddy you said it yourself the trade was stopped out


Markets didn't respect this medium SZ, this trade just got stopped out (145.90) (if one took it)

[ACC-Major]

Chartists will cherry pick their data.
You guys know who Jim Cramer is right?
Although 50% of his calls were bad, but he only emphasize on his good ones.
It makes him look good. Samething we see here.

[rfdrfd]

Ooo... SPY dropped below the 140 level.... markets tried to get up, but its been around this area too long = buy orders used up.

So, the chance of going down is now higher. Looking at the SPY, price may go down to 137 area now.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[rfdrfd]

slow down buddy you said it yourself the trade was stopped out

Which trade?

I was just saying, my post of "hold on to your shorts and take profits on your longs" was spot on. Which it was, as the market rallied for 3 days, but then BOOM, dropped even lower and wiped out all gains. Thus, shorts won.

[rfdrfd]

Chartists will cherry pick their data.
You guys know who Jim Cramer is right?
Although 50% of his calls were bad, but he only emphasize on his good ones.
It makes him look good. Samething we see here.

I never cherry pick and will not do that. If I'm wrong, I will be first to say it. But don't mis-read my posts and call it cherry picking. Like a few of you guys did here.
Even this thread, I showed you what the market is highly possible to do and it happened 100%.

50%? Amm... please look at my actual stock picks (real) here: http://forums.redflagdeals.com/tracking-my-stock-picks-rfd-1228103/ All real, nothing cherry picked. I picked them BEFORE price happened, and the result could go either way, live, not fake.

[rfdrfd]

This week, I am taking the 7 day course again at OTA. 3rd time now. Learning more of what I didn't understand last times.

Our instructor gave us a big warning yesterday. He said the markets has a very high probability of making a drop. And this drop can be huge. Huge as in it can reach levels of 2008 low and lower (because those levels are no longer fresh). Just like how 2000 lows were broken by 2008 lows.

I'll type more later, there are many reasons for this view: S&P weekly has dropped below its demand zone = we now have a lower high and a lower low = DOWN trend

Financials and Technology lead the markets and both have been selling off for the last few months (I'll show more later). Notice how Google and Apple has been selling off? Why? Because big institutions are selling off their positions to profit since they bought it from a very low price. Apple is selling off because its forward earnings is decreased dramatically, almost to zero (he said. Fundamental guys on here, you can verify this). And the largest holder of AAPL is Fidelity (he said, someone can check) and they own millions of shares. So it will take them 6-9 months just to sell off these. Thus, this sell off in AAPL is just the beginning.

He warned us if we have any positions, mutual funds that depend on the market to go up, either: hedge them or turn them into cash. Do NOT buy into any positions to go long (up). Then, get ready to SHORT this market or buy the inverse ETFs. Not leveraged ones, just 1x.

He said the Xmas rally may come, depends on how this market goes these few weeks. But even today, it went up in the morning, then still couldn't hold it. On a daily, you can see it formed a big wick on top = more selling pressure tomorrow. If this rally happens, THAT is your shorting opportunity into a supply zone.

Will type more later, gotta get ready for class tomorrow.

Again, everyone, please becareful, do NOT buy into any long positions right now. Do NOT be tricked into buying Apple, Google, any technology that looks SO MUCH cheaper now. The down pressure in the markets is NOT yet over.

[Daf]

Bad news!!!!! Shoot

[ACC-Major]

This week, I am taking the 7 day course again at OTA. 3rd time now. Learning more of what I didn't understand last times.

Yeah, taking them for free is fine, I hope you didn't have to pay again lol.


Our instructor gave us a big warning yesterday. He said the markets has a very high probability of making a drop. And this drop can be huge. Huge as in it can reach levels of 2008 low and lower (because those levels are no longer fresh). Just like how 2000 lows were broken by 2008 lows.

Yeah, many people said many things, it's super hard for none of those sayings to not come true. For example: 100 people will predict that the market will be up or down 1 point, 2 points, 3 points, 4 points etc..., and it's super hard for none of them to come true. And if one of their predictions did come true, people will treat him/her as god.
Predicting that market will drop below 2008-2009 low is just asking for too much. I don't know what is going on in his head. If that comes true within the next decade, I will donate $10,000 to your favorite charity (not OTA though, because you think they are doing charity work).



I'll type more later, there are many reasons for this view: S&P weekly has dropped below its demand zone = we now have a lower high and a lower low = DOWN trend

ok...


Financials and Technology lead the markets and both have been selling off for the last few months (I'll show more later). Notice how Google and Apple has been selling off? Why? Because big institutions are selling off their positions to profit since they bought it from a very low price. Apple is selling off because its forward earnings is decreased dramatically, almost to zero (he said. Fundamental guys on here, you can verify this). And the largest holder of AAPL is Fidelity (he said, someone can check) and they own millions of shares. So it will take them 6-9 months just to sell off these. Thus, this sell off in AAPL is just the beginning.

I don't really care what their reasons for selling. Obviously, they are not selling them for the same reasons they sold in 2008.


He warned us if we have any positions, mutual funds that depend on the market to go up, either: hedge them or turn them into cash. Do NOT buy into any positions to go long (up). Then, get ready to SHORT this market or buy the inverse ETFs. Not leveraged ones, just 1x.

I wish he would have told us 1 week earlier lol.


He said the Xmas rally may come, depends on how this market goes these few weeks. But even today, it went up in the morning, then still couldn't hold it. On a daily, you can see it formed a big wick on top = more selling pressure tomorrow. If this rally happens, THAT is your shorting opportunity into a supply zone.

He basically says it all, the market might drop, the market might rally, and the market might drop below 2008. It is very hard for the market not to hit one of his predictions. After the market did go to his predicted levels, he will emphasize his saying: "see? I told you the market would drop/rally, I am so good".


Will type more later, gotta get ready for class tomorrow.

Have fun!


Again, everyone, please becareful, do NOT buy into any long positions right now. Do NOT be tricked into buying Apple, Google, any technology that looks SO MUCH cheaper now. The down pressure in the markets is NOT yet over.

I will never buy Apple, but I love Google.
I still don't understand why people wouldn't want to buy things when they go on sales.
The thing about investing is that who gets the last laugh in the end.
Making a couple hundred here and there isn't classified as investing.
I know, you guys classify it as trading, speculating, gambling.
But in the end Investing > trading, speculating, gambling.

[Sauerkraut]

Our instructor gave us a big warning yesterday. He said the markets has a very high probability of making a drop. And this drop can be huge.

and they charge a fee for this advice? That's a great gig if you can get it...kind of like organized religion

[Vitalogy80]

This week, I am taking the 7 day course again at OTA. 3rd time now. Learning more of what I didn't understand last times.

Our instructor gave us a big warning yesterday. He said the markets has a very high probability of making a drop. And this drop can be huge. Huge as in it can reach levels of 2008 low and lower (because those levels are no longer fresh). Just like how 2000 lows were broken by 2008 lows.

I'll type more later, there are many reasons for this view: S&P weekly has dropped below its demand zone = we now have a lower high and a lower low = DOWN trend

Financials and Technology lead the markets and both have been selling off for the last few months (I'll show more later). Notice how Google and Apple has been selling off? Why? Because big institutions are selling off their positions to profit since they bought it from a very low price. Apple is selling off because its forward earnings is decreased dramatically, almost to zero (he said. Fundamental guys on here, you can verify this). And the largest holder of AAPL is Fidelity (he said, someone can check) and they own millions of shares. So it will take them 6-9 months just to sell off these. Thus, this sell off in AAPL is just the beginning.

He warned us if we have any positions, mutual funds that depend on the market to go up, either: hedge them or turn them into cash. Do NOT buy into any positions to go long (up). Then, get ready to SHORT this market or buy the inverse ETFs. Not leveraged ones, just 1x.

He said the Xmas rally may come, depends on how this market goes these few weeks. But even today, it went up in the morning, then still couldn't hold it. On a daily, you can see it formed a big wick on top = more selling pressure tomorrow. If this rally happens, THAT is your shorting opportunity into a supply zone.

Will type more later, gotta get ready for class tomorrow.

Again, everyone, please becareful, do NOT buy into any long positions right now. Do NOT be tricked into buying Apple, Google, any technology that looks SO MUCH cheaper now. The down pressure in the markets is NOT yet over.

Apple's forward earnings is decreasing dramatically? Say what?? Last quarter they reported 36 Billion in Revenue and are forecasting 52 Billion in the upcoming quarter...that would hardly seem to be decreasing dramatically. Nevermind that Apple is notorious for low balling their estimates. I'm confused, please explain what you mean here.

[wm009]

Apple's forward earnings is decreasing dramatically? Say what?? Last quarter they reported 36 Billion in Revenue and are forecasting 52 Billion in the upcoming quarter...that would hardly seem to be decreasing dramatically. Nevermind that Apple is notorious for low balling their estimates. I'm confused, please explain what you mean here.

He pays a lot of money to take online courses on technical trading based off charts. He's like the holistic healer or horoscope trader of stocks.

[angelok]

I'll type more later, there are many reasons for this view: S&P weekly has dropped below its demand zone = we now have a lower high and a lower low = DOWN trend

The down pressure in the markets is NOT yet over.

JPM Fundamentals: Dividend Yield 3.00% P/E 8.5x

I just placed my order to buy when the market opens tomorrow. I could care less what your charts are saying. I do know for a fact that over the next 5 years this stock is going to return me quite a bit of money. ;)

[rfdrfd]

Here's the chart on the SPY (ETF of the S&P 500). It is in a demand zone right now, but today's trading does not look good. Tried to go up in the morning, but crashed and burned big for the rest of the day:

The expected target (3) is equivalent to 1280.80 area on the S&P 500. If we get there, we'll see if that holds.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/6222/spy20121114.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/811/spy20121114.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[Daf]

Should I be cashing out of all my stocks now? ... Serious question

[brunes]

Should I be cashing out of all my stocks now? ... Serious question

If you're asking serious questions you are doing it in the wrong thread my friend.

[rfdrfd]

Should I be cashing out of all my stocks now? ... Serious question

Serious answer: yes. I am. Same with all my mutual funds. Reasons:

1) market has hit the high (fact) and has rolled over, technically, the DOWN trend has been confirmed
2) if your stock / fund is profitable = sell it, lock in gains, smile
3) if your stock / fund is underwater = you didn't have a stop loss right? So your stock didn't profit even back when market was at a top a few weeks ago, so what are the chances of it going back up when markets are heading down? Zero. Get rid of them and admit the mistake.

Then, use the cash and SHORT or buy inverse ETFs when SPY goes back up to a good supply zone. As my teacher just said today, take any good supply zone opportunity and short the crap out of the market.

Look at any of the 9 sector ETFs. www.sectorspdrs.com and look at what has happened in the last few weeks. All sectors are down.

[deal_with_singh]

^Going against what he's saying...I say right now's a pretty good looking buying opportunity in some spaces like energy and miners.

[McPaul]

buying huge on this news. Thanks!

[rfdrfd]

^Going against what he's saying...I say right now's a pretty good looking buying opportunity in some spaces like energy and miners.

Look at the charts of S&P, Nasdaq. Huge downtrend. Why fight the trend?

[can2000]

Look at the charts of S&P, Nasdaq. Huge downtrend. Why fight the trend?

How much up from bottom counts to downtrend change? thanks

[angelok]

our instructor gave us a big warning yesterday. He said the markets has a very high probability of making a drop.


lol. :D

[jedi1648]

"The Guru syndrome appears quite popular in stock trading. The predictor becomes everyone wants to follow. After the investors walk in lockstep with the guru over the cliff, a new guru who pointed the way correctly (though only a few listened) is thrust to the forefront. When he too fails, investors will again fanatically search for a new guru so as to perpetuate the guru’s loser game. Happiness is running with the crowd. It is nice and cozy in the centre of the herd, where the body heat is the greatest. However, there is danger in being too comfortable, as one is not at a good vantage point to observe the subtle early indicators of changing conditions. "

[rfdrfd]

lol. :D

Do you have a compulsive laugh disorder? S&P hit a demand zone and reacted exactly as it should. On last Friday, last day of my class, we were all trading longs. And it worked today.

It is at a Supply zone now, let's see how far up this can go. Just wait and see.

[rfdrfd]

How much up from bottom counts to downtrend change? thanks

On any timeframe, look at the pivot highs and lows. Start from current price and look back to the last 2 pivots (highs and lows):

Up trend: higher highs and higher lows
Down trend: lower highs and lower lows

[wm009]

On any timeframe, look at the pivot highs and lows. Start from current price and look back to the last 2 pivots (highs and lows):

Up trend: higher highs and higher lows
Down trend: lower highs and lower lows
That's profound advice. I often advise farmers that they plant their crops for the summer sun. Not in the winter.

[angelok]

Do you have a compulsive laugh disorder? S&P hit a demand zone and reacted exactly as it should. On last Friday, last day of my class, we were all trading longs. And it worked today.

It is at a Supply zone now, let's see how far up this can go. Just wait and see.

Care to read post #105. Those are your words. And 2 days later you are claiming that you went long. Are you lying? :confused:

[Daf]

Are you still advising selling everything off? Or with the uptrend the last few days has things changed ?

[bgallagher]

Do you have a compulsive laugh disorder? S&P hit a demand zone and reacted exactly as it should. On last Friday, last day of my class, we were all trading longs. And it worked today.

It is at a Supply zone now, let's see how far up this can go. Just wait and see.

Anyone cares explaining what trading longs means? thanks

[wm009]

Are you still advising selling everything off? Or with the uptrend the last few days has things changed ?

I think he's advising both. Can't be wrong that way.

[rodbarc]

Anyone cares explaining what trading longs means? thanks

It means buying stocks, instead of shorting (borrowing) them. It's betting that trending will continue up.

I don't trust this model. It's only good if the previous trend continue. Nobody can predit when trend will invert. The market can breakup above resistance or breakdown below support at anytime. Then a new wave or trend begins. Great to explain the past, useless to predict the future.

That's why I invest for long term (down trend is your friend to average down) and I trade for short term (options), regardless the direction.

Rod

[can2000]

I have heard never average down. Look at RIM, FB, GM, TIM, drys, mfc, etc.

[Vitalogy80]

I have heard never average down. Look at RIM, FB, GM, TIM, drys, mfc, etc.

Averaging down in a good stock/business like TD for example is smart, you're basically buying an excellent business on sale...averaging down in a stock with a lot of problems like RIM is basically gambling. You're hoping the next product (that you've never used) is some game changer. As they say, if something is really cheap (RIM or HP), there's probably a reason why no one else wants to buy it.

[ACC-Major]

Are you still advising selling everything off? Or with the uptrend the last few days has things changed ?

He said on Friday that it's a downtrend.
Then all of the sudden, it's an uptrend on the same day.

You will have to forgive him. He is losing it. He is losing money now. I am sure of it.

Technical Analysts will emphasize that it's a downtrend without any news. We got some good news on Monday.
Guess what? I have seem down days on good news, and up days on bad news.

In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine, in the long run, it's a weighting machine.
Unfortunately, not many people understand what Ben Graham meant by that.

[Daf]

Feel free to explain....

Short term vs long term?

ACc what r u doing right now? Buying? Has the downtrend not scared you and made u lose a fair bit of cash ?

[ACC-Major]

Feel free to explain....

Short term vs long term?

ACc what r u doing right now? Buying? Has the downtrend not scared you and made u lose a fair bit of cash ?

Anything less than 3 years is considered short term.
I have been through this many times lol.
I have seem more than 50% of my net worth wiped out before.
I am a permanent bull in general, given that stocks aren't expensive.
I do not turn bearish. Well, when I feel bearish, I just don't buy, not sell or short.

I am a accumulator of stocks over my life time. I want stocks to remain cheap as long as they could so I can accumulate them.
It will pay off a couple of decades later.

I am not buying right now because I have done so last year. This year, I will just sit back and relax.
You mean what is a voting and weighting machine?

[rodbarc]

I have heard never average down. Look at RIM, FB, GM, TIM, drys, mfc, etc.

Those are not companies to invest for long term. They are good for short term max. Technology changes so fast, these companies come and go quickly. The only exception is IBM, mostly because they are more of a services companie than tech. Auto stocks or airline stocks are not for long term.

I'm talking about recession-proof companies that have a history of increasing dividends every year, for years, or at least paying them for a long time. Those have been a winner to avg down. Cnr, enb, fts, ema, ppl, bns, ry, ref.un, ap.un, cgx, t, bce, sap... Canadian companies leader in their segment and a portfolio in diversified sectors. Very low chance of going wrong.

Rod

[angelok]

I think he's advising both. Can't be wrong that way.

I am hoping that nobody follows this individuals advise when it comes to serious investment decisions. :|

[Daf]

Yes what are voting and weighing machines. I have an idea but don't want to make any assumptions.

[ccyk]

L.to is having divergence now, price as i type is http://i.imgur.com/6brGd.png

I think this is a easy $1 profit

[rfdrfd]

Yesterday may be the beginning of the drop. In case you don't know, markets just don't drop straight down. Unless some disaster happens in the global economy. It will go down, then pull back up a little, and shouldn' be able to break the last high. Then it will continue down more, repeat.

Impulse move down, then a small corrective move up. Perfect example is with Apple right now. Look at a daily chart. It is going down right now, trend is down. Impulse move down was from 700 to 500. Now its going back up with its corrective move 500 to 590. Today, nice gap down to 574.94 now. Compare between these impulse move distances.... the bigger distance is your impulse and direction.

Hence, do NOT buy AAPL right now. It is a short

[FunSave22]

So to be clear, about 2 weeks ago you told us to sell everything as the market was going to make a huge drop. Since then the market has gone up almost every day.

But the market was down yesterday and it opened down today, so you're telling us that now might be when the big drop will happen. I guess we are supposed to ignore how wrong you were the past two weeks.

And if this doesn't turn out to be the huge crash, I guess the next time the market makes a small drop you'll again be here to tell us this is the beginning of the crash. And over and over until you are eventually "right".


And then you try to convince us to sign up for the ridiculously expensive course. Do you grasp how sad this is?

[angelok]

So to be clear, about 2 weeks ago you told us to sell everything as the market was going to make a huge drop. Since then the market has gone up almost every day.

But the market was down yesterday and it opened down today, so you're telling us that now might be when the big drop will happen. I guess we are supposed to ignore how wrong you were the past two weeks.

And if this doesn't turn out to be the huge crash, I guess the next time the market makes a small drop you'll again be here to tell us this is the beginning of the crash. And over and over until you are eventually "right".


And then you try to convince us to sign up for the ridiculously expensive course. Do you grasp how sad this is?

Personally, I find this individual's posts quite entertaining. :lol:

Okay, Sarcasm aside now, I sure hope that nobody on this board follows this individual's advise.

[cjottawa]

From Burton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street":


One chart showed a beautiful upward breakout from an inverted head and shoulders (a very bullish formation). I showed it to a chartist friend of mine who practically jumped out of his skin. “What is this company?” he exclaimed. “We’ve got to buy immediately. This pattern’s a classic. There’s no question the stock will be up 15 points next week.” He did not respond kindly when I told him the chart had been produced by flipping a coin.

User rfdrfd is a chartist. I sincerely hope anyone reading rfdrfd's posts takes the time to read Burton Malkiel's book before they lose a lot of money following a losing strategy.

[wesboag]

Since rfdrfd demanded that everyone sell APPL or short it on Nov 14/15th, the stock has jumped anywhere from 8.4 - 10.8%.

Since Nov 15th, SPY is up 3.8%.

[ACC-Major]

Many people on RFD (including yours truly) have already warned about rfdrfd's newly discovered market prediction power being a complete failure.
People who believed in these things are just not using their common sense (a.k.a IQ below 120).

When you are investing, you got to use your common sense with thorough research and analysis, and it might include some leg works.
You won't make any money in the long run by sitting there and looking at charts.

rfdrfd's argument is that why does big corporations like GS, MS, and the likes employ a department of people that does nothing but technical analysis.
I have no idea why, just like I have no idea why people would buy Nortel, or short Nortel, and both went broke.

[ccyk]

From Burton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street":



User rfdrfd is a chartist. I sincerely hope anyone reading rfdrfd's posts takes the time to read Burton Malkiel's book before they lose a lot of money following a losing strategy.
that is a bad and illogical example to discredit chartTA. it is like saying person A by some luck threw a dart and hit the center and then person B walk by and say A must have trained a lot. person A says thats his first time playing dart and try to discredit people spending the time to train.

[red_skittles]

that is a bad and illogical example to discredit chartTA. it is like saying person A by some luck threw a dart and hit the center and then person B walk by and say A must have trained a lot. person A says thats his first time playing dart and try to discredit people spending the time to train.

The quote has nothing to do with luck or training but about the randomness of the data. This person flipped a coin producing random data and the chartist saw what they wanted to see. The point here is that day to day movements in price are for the most part random and you can find all the patterns in the chart you want but that doesn't make them meaningful. Academically, technical analysis has been all but proven to hold absolutely no merit and empirically its been shown that it can't be sustained over the long term. Sooner or latter you're going to get caught on the bad end of a trade and fall hard.

And why is rfdrfd so persistent on pushing technical analysis on us. Doesn't he realize that once we all start trading on the patterns, they will no longer be profitable. Maybe its best to keep it to yourself

[ccyk]

The quote has nothing to do with luck or training but about the randomness of the data. This person flipped a coin producing random data and the chartist saw what they wanted to see. The point here is that day to day movements in price are for the most part random and you can find all the patterns in the chart you want but that doesn't make them meaningful. Academically, technical analysis has been all but proven to hold absolutely no merit and empirically its been shown that it can't be sustained over the long term. Sooner or latter you're going to get caught on the bad end of a trade and fall hard.

And why is rfdrfd so persistent on pushing technical analysis on us. Doesn't he realize that once we all start trading on the patterns, they will no longer be profitable. Maybe its best to keep it to yourself

sp movement is not random. you are like saying people randomly buy or sell on any sp. if certain company releases a good earning report, and sp response, is it random? randomness chart and sp movement has no causal relationship, maybe sometimes they act similar, but there is no cause and effect on it.

rfdrfd are off his head to say TA is everything.
I use both FA and TA and is making money and beat markets year after year.

[ccyk]

or you could try 100000 times by throwing coin to make a chart looks like US GDP or unemplyment rate chart or debt level chart and say gov't policy has nothing to do with economy because it is all random.

[red_skittles]

sp movement is not random. you are like saying people randomly buy or sell on any sp. if certain company releases a good earning report, and sp response, is it random? randomness chart and sp movement has no causal relationship, maybe sometimes they act similar, but there is no cause and effect on it.

rfdrfd are off his head to say TA is everything.
I use both FA and TA and is making money and beat markets year after year.

I said day to day movement is random. Pick any stock you want. Can you say for certain whether it will close up or down tomorrow? If you saw the chart would you be able to say with anymore certainty the stock will close higher or lower.

Trying to beat the market by reading some sort of pattern in the chart is a dangerous game to be playing. In the long run its just not possible. Other than warren buffet can you name a single person/fund that has consistently beaten the market year after year

[ACC-Major]

Trying to beat the market by reading some sort of pattern in the chart is a dangerous game to be playing. In the long run its just not possible. Other than warren buffet can you name a single person/fund that has consistently beaten the market year after year

I agree with everything you've said, but just a little correction here.
No one can beat the market year after year, no one. Not even Buffett himself. There were years when he lagged behind market, especially during the technology bubble years, he was branded as being too old, out of touch with reality, and out of date because he didn't hold any tech stocks.

[red_skittles]

I agree with everything you've said, but just a little correction here.
No one can beat the market year after year, no one. Not even Buffett himself. There were years when he lagged behind market, especially during the technology bubble years, he was branded as being too old, out of touch with reality, and out of date because he didn't hold any tech stocks.

You are right. I should have said averaged higher than the market over his lifetime. But the fact still remains, very very very few people can say that over a 30 year period they averaged better than the market. You are either going to converge with the market or under perform. And those that have didn't do it buy looking for some magic in a chart. They are/were buy and hold, value, and buy what you know investors. It's no secret. If you listen, they will tell you all you could ever want to know about the market for free. No need to take a $13,000 online course

[techcrium]

You are right. I should have said averaged higher than the market over his lifetime. But the fact still remains, very very very few people can say that over a 30 year period they averaged better than the market. You are either going to converge with the market or under perform. And those that have didn't do it buy looking for some magic in a chart. They are/were buy and hold, value, and buy what you know investors. It's no secret. If you listen, they will tell you all you could ever want to know about the market for free. No need to take a $13,000 online course

How can most people underperformed vs the market? The market is the average of everything. If some people underperformed, then there must be people who over performed.

[red_skittles]

How can most people underperformed vs the market? The market is the average of everything. If some people underperformed, then there must be people who over performed.

I am talking about actively managed portfolios and a time period greater than 20 years. On any given year a managed portfolio may beat the market but over those 20 years it will either converge with the market or end up performing worse than the market. Take a look at most mutual or pension funds. They can't consistently beat the market and in the long run may even under perform. Plus you are saying the market is the average of all individual portfolio performance which it is not. Its the average of individual security performance. Just because I consistently pick losers and under perform doesn't mean some one out there has to be consistently picking winners so we average out to the market. Its independent

[wm009]

How can most people underperformed vs the market? The market is the average of everything. If some people underperformed, then there must be people who over performed.
If the market performed as simple as buy and sell that would be the case. But it's buy, commission and sell, commission. There's an added cost to play in the market, this means that at any given time, more people underperform than overperform. Apply the losing odds over a period of time and it just gets worse.

[ccyk]

I said day to day movement is random. Pick any stock you want. Can you say for certain whether it will close up or down tomorrow? If you saw the chart would you be able to say with anymore certainty the stock will close higher or lower.

Trying to beat the market by reading some sort of pattern in the chart is a dangerous game to be playing. In the long run its just not possible. Other than warren buffet can you name a single person/fund that has consistently beaten the market year after year

the famous japanese retail day trader BNF, start out in 2000 with usd$13,600 and reach u$240Million at end of 2008, rumor his asset was worth about 400M in 2010
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%E3%83%BBN%E3%83%BBF

[rfdrfd]

Hmm... market dropping pretty hard today. However, there is still the fiscal cliff bandaid solution rally coming. US won't let time run out I don't think to issue some sort of bandaid solution.

They're just doing the political dance right now. But, an educated trader (http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/author/sam-seiden/) wouldn't care about any Fiscal Cliff talk.

[rfdrfd]

Like my instructor in class said, the first thing we'll see if tons and tons of job cuts. Adding fuel to the market drop fire potential. Holy crap, 11,000 jobs !!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/05/citigroup-job-cuts_n_2243975.html
Citigroup Job Cuts: Bank Plans To Slash 11,000 Jobs In Aim To Save As Much As $1.1 Billion Per Year

[charliebrown]

Hmm... market dropping pretty hard today. However, there is still the fiscal cliff bandaid solution rally coming. US won't let time run out I don't think to issue some sort of bandaid solution.

They're just doing the political dance right now. But, an educated trader (http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/author/sam-seiden/) wouldn't care about any Fiscal Cliff talk.

DOW +120
S&P +7
TSX +67
NASDAQ -8

I think Citi is leading the charge up...+6%; funny how things can turn so quickly eh?

[ACC-Major]

DOW +120
S&P +7
TSX +67
NASDAQ -8

I think Citi is leading the charge up...+6%; funny how things can turn so quickly eh?

Charlie, i thought you are into technical too. If rfdrfd said that the market is down, then must be down on the charts. How come it turned the corner? If the market closed down today, then people will follow rfdrfd again.

[charliebrown]

Charlie, i thought you are into technical too. If rfdrfd said that the market is down, then must be down on the charts. How come it turned the corner? If the market closed down today, then people will follow rfdrfd again.

Nope, I trade using both...don't see why technicals/fundamentals can't co-exist.
Been trying to find what someone said that led to the ~160pt intraday swing for the DOW.

[angelok]

Been trying to find what someone said that led to the ~160pt intraday swing for the DOW.

Well, from a fundamental point of view, both the Dow and TSE are undervalued. :D

Having said that, I have no clue what the technicals mean or do.

[ccyk]

L.to is having divergence now, price as i type is http://i.imgur.com/6brGd.png

I think this is a easy $1 profit

wow L.to up some 15% today trading at 38.97 as i tuype

[angelok]

wow L.to up some 15% today trading at 38.97 as i tuype

They are creating a new REIT: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2012/06/c6807.html

[ccyk]

They are creating a new REIT: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2012/06/c6807.html

L's market cap after the rise is 10.89B, the reit alone is 7B, leaving 3B for its core supermarket business. they are unlocking value from its balance sheet, nice move.

[rfdrfd]

I'll just re-post what I posted in another thread here. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but a very simplistic look at the market (S&P 500).
A few things you need to know about the market. It is all traded by humans. Humans programming software on where to buy and sell.

1) where is price right now? Is it up high or low? Do you want to buy low or buy high?
2) what happened to price last time when it hit this level?

From the 2000 crash (point A below), it crashed to point B.
Then it rallied back up to point C. Almost exactly to Point A, then it crashed again, WHY ? Because simply there are sooooo many sell orders waiting to execute at that price level.

then it crashed to Point D, a little lower than before (B) because buy orders were used up in Point B, but not 100% used up.
Now we are rallying back up from Point B.

We are now at 1418.54. Are we close to the same level as Points A and C again? Darn right we are.

So, ask yourself, which has the higher probability ? Markets to drop or go up? Drop of course. Because there are still sell orders waiting to sell at that level. If you don't believe things repeat themselves, then why did C drop --> D just like A--> B ? Its again, supply vs. demand.

Two things may happen:
a) markets go up to Point E and past it because that level has less sell orders (since executed from A and C), BUT, markets will still drop due to tons of sell orders left
b) markets go up to Point E, go sideways, then continue up
c) or markets won't even make it up to Point E and starts dropping now

Knowing these choices above, the SMART thing to do is not to buy anything right now. Wait for (b) first, then buy in. Yes, you may be late a little bit, but at least you saved yourself from (a) and (c).

For myself, I know how to short or buy Inverse ETFs. I'm getting prepared to profit BIG time when this market corrects itself. If it doesn't, then I won't go short or be stopped out with a small loss. The probability of dropping is much higher than going up.

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/6184/inxe.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/706/inxe.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[rfdrfd]

Here's a weekly via of the S&P500. SPY needs to be able to go up and break these highs (yellow rectangle) to be able to continue higher.
This is a weekly, so let's check again after this Friday.

If the price starts rolling over sideways or down, then S&P is going lower to 1370 level, and then we'll see if it breaks the lows 1359 and 1343. If that happens, ouch, watch out below.

Right now, USA is probably going to come up with some band-aid for the fiscal cliff thing, so we will rally up. Again, lets see how high S&P can rally up to. If it can break the above mentioned highs. If it cannot, that's a signal for down.


http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/9302/inx2.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/837/inx2.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[wm009]

I thought the S&P already crashed based on your advice given a few weeks ago. What happened?

[rfdrfd]

Scroll down to bottom of this: http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/article/trend-change-warnings/

Today price was able to break the Nov highs, then price of S&P retreated back down. Perhaps its a bull trap. Let's see how this week ends.

[SkimGuy]

I thought the S&P already crashed based on your advice given a few weeks ago. What happened?

I bet he has posts saying the S&P will go up, and in another thread he will say the exact opposite. That way, he can just reference either post and appear right either way the market moves. I haven't been paying enough attention to his posts to see if his actual claims come true.

[wm009]

He does what John Edwards and other psychics do. Just weak generalizations that really cover all outcomes (really only two when it comes to stocks; up or down). Or the best one of all, "I didn't say when it was going to happen."

[ACC-Major]

He does what John Edwards and other psychics do. Just weak generalizations that really cover all outcomes (really only two when it comes to stocks; up or down). Or the best one of all, "I didn't say when it was going to happen."

They are actually correct. No one knows when stocks will drop and rise.
And yet, from time to from, they tried to predict that. Acting as if they know.

Just wondering, how come no other chartists are here to defend rfdrfd this time?
I remember back in the days when rfdrfd first discovered his new found power, we poured cold water over him. Other chartists came to the rescue.

[rfdrfd]

All indexes in the weekly is showing a "shooting star" candle. The name doesn't matter, what it means is selling pressure >> buying.

Maybe this Santa rally is over. Which makes sense, as dividend, captial gains taxes are going up for USA in 2013, so a lot of fund managers, individuals , etc. could be selling off their winning stocks to avoid the higher tax rate.

Then there's that fiscal cliff thing. Only 19 days till 2013. And they still have to agree, then write up some bill, then that goes into action. That isn't a 1 day job.

[wm009]

All indexes in the weekly is showing a "shooting star" candle. The name doesn't matter, what it means is selling pressure >> buying.

Maybe this Santa rally is over. Which makes sense, as dividend, captial gains taxes are going up for USA in 2013, so a lot of fund managers, individuals , etc. could be selling off their winning stocks to avoid the higher tax rate.

Then there's that fiscal cliff thing. Only 19 days till 2013. And they still have to agree, then write up some bill, then that goes into action. That isn't a 1 day job.

Are you going to call it or are you going to continue being as vague as ever with comments like "maybe this santa rally is over" or "selling pressure". Whatever those things are supposed to mean. Where's the stock market crash? You predicted.

[Fox2k]

Just wondering, how come no other chartists are here to defend rfdrfd this time?.

I'm pretty sure everyone from both sides of the argument, except for a few of the more vocal individuals, are sick and tired of every thread here turning in to a TA debate and have chosen to stop participating. I know I have.

[rfdrfd]

Now I don't know if this is the beginning of the big market drop my instructor told us about, but you gotta admit, today was a BIG drop for the S&P

[rfdrfd]

Are you going to call it or are you going to continue being as vague as ever with comments like "maybe this santa rally is over" or "selling pressure". Whatever those things are supposed to mean. Where's the stock market crash? You predicted.

I think you should look in the mirror and listen to yourself.

[FunSave22]

I think you should look in the mirror and listen to yourself.
Why would we want to listen to ourselves?


We weren't the people who announced 5 weeks ago that the stock market was going to crash. That would be you.

We weren't the people who gave advice to sell all of our holdings and buy inverse ETFs or short the market. That would be you.



So, when is the crash happening? How much longer should we short the market or buy inverse ETFs? Be specific please.

[ACC-Major]

I think you should look in the mirror and listen to yourself.

Although my portfolio crashed 2% today, but it is still up 3.5% this week.

The overall market didn't crash, just a small correction.
I hardly call < 1% correction a crash.

[SkimGuy]

I think the market will go up soon.

I'm going to remember this post, and link back to this post every time the market goes up. That way, I'll look like an investing genius.

[adamtheman]

Now I don't know if this is the beginning of the big market drop my instructor told us about, but you gotta admit, today was a BIG drop for the S&P

Oh, is that what your community college investment instructor told you? Did he tell you that during your FOURTH attempt at the course? It begs the question, yet again, if he is so sure of this huge upcoming drop then why is he teaching at some lousy school? Shouldn't he be worth $50 billion dollars since he can apparently predict when major market movements are coming? Too funny. The only one making money is him, since he takes your course fees and feeds you whatever you want to hear. You sir have been played. But unlike most people, you haven't just been played just once, or twice, but rather thrice :facepalm:

[ACC-Major]

OTA is a private school of some type. Not a typical Community College like Seneca, Centennial and the likes.
I believe he's got a University degree from somewhere and couldnt find a job and then resorted to OTA.
I guess his University degree was able to keep him out of MLM schemes but not enough to save him from OTA.

[karl87]

I think the market will go up soon.

I'm going to remember this post, and link back to this post every time the market goes up. That way, I'll look like an investing genius.

Lot's of those people on here.... hahaha

[angelok]

I think the market will go up soon.

I'm going to remember this post, and link back to this post every time the market goes up. That way, I'll look like an investing genius.

Based on my crystal ball, I think the market will be up on Monday December 24, 2012, with volume being on the light side. :cheesygri

[jedi1648]

Based on my crystal ball, I think the market will be up on Monday December 24, 2012, . :cheesygri

It may be time to look for antoher crystal ball. The north american stock markets closed down today, although a chartist might tell us that the markets should be UP based on index charts of the markets of last 4 years on Dec 24 when the markets were up every single time on Dec 24 (or Dec 23 if Dec 24 is the weekend). To quote someone had said in another thread: "News can lie, people can lie, charts cannot".

[cjottawa]

..."News can lie, people can lie, charts cannot".

Yabbut, people can use charts and statistics to lie, in support of their positions.

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728

[ACC-Major]

It may be time to look for antoher crystal ball. The north american stock markets closed down today, although a chartist might tell us that the markets should be UP based on index charts of the markets of last 4 years on Dec 24 when the markets were up every single time on Dec 24 (or Dec 23 if Dec 24 is the weekend). To quote someone had said in another thread: "News can lie, people can lie, charts cannot".

Actually, my portfolio is up 0.04% today due to 1 stock soaring 8%, and rest dragged it down.

[rfdrfd]

S&P will be trading range bound for awhile, between these two zones:

Low: 1300 to 1350
High: 1462 to 1500

Until price can break out of these two boundaries. Let's see if the fiscal cliff news can break price out of this range.

[Jungle]

lol. S&P500 with trade 1300-1500.

I got one: TSX will trade 11000-15000.

Class dismissed!

[FunSave22]

S&P will be trading range bound for awhile, between these two zones:

Low: 1300 to 1350
High: 1462 to 1500

Until price can break out of these two boundaries. Let's see if the fiscal cliff news can break price out of this range.
Is this your way of saying that you no longer believe there is going to be a market crash anytime soon? In the middle of November when you said it was going to happen soon, the S&P was about 1350.


In case you need to be reminded, you told people that they should sell all of their holdings and either short the markets or buy inverse ETFs. If you no longer believe this is true, shouldn't you very explicitly say so?

Unfortunately, there may actually be people who believe you know what you are doing and that your announcements are worth listening to. If you believe your announcement that people should sell everything and then short was wrong, you should be responsible enough to clearly say so.

[Vitalogy80]

S&P will be trading range bound for awhile, between these two zones:

Low: 1300 to 1350
High: 1462 to 1500

Until price can break out of these two boundaries. Let's see if the fiscal cliff news can break price out of this range.

So it will trade between these 2 ranges, until it doesn't...wow, that's so very helpful. I can provide you some insight as well...AAPL will stay within the range of 500 to 530 until it isn't, if it breaks 500, it will go lower, and if it goes above 530, it will signal that AAPL will rise!

Also, the temperature will stay between 0 and -10 for the next few months, then will proceed to increase for several months before it drops back into the supply zone of 0 to -10 somewhere around next December. If it breaks -30 though, watch out cause that could mean that he*l has frozen over.

[Fox2k]

Let's see if the fiscal cliff news can break price out of this range.

I thought you said the market isn't driven by news?

[wm009]

His advice has always been esoteric, which is what his course is all about. You learn more, but never enough, and need to learn more. This dog and pony show reminds me John Edward.

[rfdrfd]

This week's drop erased the last 3 weeks of gains.

[wm009]

This week's drop erased the last 3 weeks of gains.
Well thank you for sharing this interesting statistic after it happened.

[wowser]

Since you being so kind :) I'll share this with you (fresh from yesterday's online live session). Hope I dont get into trouble. This is from Sam Seiden, our VP of Education. He is basically "God" of markets in our eyes, google him if you want. Sam S. called the top and bottom of the 2008 crash. Google it. Our nickname for him is: "The Seiden"

Anyways, here's his levels on the S&P (SPY). See his weekly supply zone? That is EXACTLY where market turned down. Amazing isn't it? Lots of traders from OTA shorted SPY at that point and made tons of profits. See his Demand zone is basically the same as the one I"ve been posting here. So around SPY $140, markets may turn back up. But he pointed out this isn't a very strong zone, so price may not hold.

Correlate that with the USD. (lower chart). If you didn't know, USD and Markets are inversely related. Notice how the USD hit Demand zone the SAME time SPY hit that weekly supply zone? THAT is a perfect storm, hence, makes that short on SPY even stronger.

http://imageshack.us/a/img12/4748/spy20121025.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/12/spy20121025.jpg/)
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http://imageshack.us/a/img18/807/usd20121025.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/usd20121025.jpg/)

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not sure who seiden is. If we are talking about "God" of the market. Everyone on redflag must agree Mr. Warren as history have proven time to time he is God. Soros maybe a semi-god. The Seiden probably don't crack the top 1000??? Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini predicted 2008 in 2005. In 2006, he gave specifics how it happened. Calling top and bottom is just 2 numbers. Maybe The Seiden was reading from Dr. Doom? I think you should read a book "Fooled by randomness".

[jedi1648]

On Dec 31, 2012, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index finished at 1,426.19, while it closed at 1257.60 in 2011, meaning 13.4% gain for the year.

According to the two dozen strategists tracked by Business Insider last year, the average forecaster saw a gain of 8.6 per cent for the S&P 500 in 2012. This makes the average strategist look a touch too conservative.

For 2013, stock market strategists again see opportunities ahead, with an average target of 1540, or 8% for the S&P 500.

Bank of America predicts the S&P 500 will hit 1600 as corporate earnings chug higher. If correct, the index would hit a new record high with a gain of about 12 per cent from current levels. Bank of Montreal sees the index rising to 1575 as investors start to pay more for earnings.

“These stock market predictions for 12 months from now are formed through the scientific process of extrapolating conditions from the present and recent past, stirring in some cognitively dissonant assumptions, adding a pinch of wishful thinking and then garnishing with a dollop of political bias,” said Josh Brown, a blogger at The Reformed Broker.

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-streets-2013-sp-500-target-2012-12?op=1

[brunes]

If "The Seiden" is such a god, then why is he wasting his time nickel and diming people for OTA courses in Toronto, when he should be cruising around his private island on his 100 million dollar yaught and having beach parties with Larry Ellison and Richard Branson?

[ACC-Major]

If "The Seiden" is such a god, then why is he wasting his time nickel and diming people for OTA courses in Toronto, when he should be cruising around his private island on his 100 million dollar yaught and having beach parties with Larry Ellison and Richard Branson?

Because he is such a nice guy that he wants the world to be as good as him in trading stocks.
As for the tuition part, well he got to pay wages to assistants and keeping the lights on.

[wowser]

If "The Seiden" is such a god, then why is he wasting his time nickel and diming people for OTA courses in Toronto, when he should be cruising around his private island on his 100 million dollar yaught and having beach parties with Larry Ellison and Richard Branson?

Maybe Forbes missed The Seiden every year on the Richest List.

[brunes]

Because he is such a nice guy that he wants the world to be as good as him in trading stocks.

Oh yeah sure.... right.

If he was such a "genius nice guy" he should be a billionaire and endowing a hundred-million dollar foundation, not making a few hundred K teaching courses in Toronto.

The simple truth is those who can do, do, and those who can't do, teach.

[rfdrfd]

TS now records and shows these for free, worth watching the analysis done by the top dog:

http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/blog

[tasamy]

So S&P at a new top high 1552 .. Are we going to 1600 or a crash or a correction?

[Rickson9]

So S&P at a new top high 1552 .. Are we going to 1600 or a crash or a correction?

Nobody knows. Only speaking for myself, it doesn't really matter anyway.

YTD 2013
DOW +9.9%
NASDAQ +7.5%
S&P500 +8.8%
S&P/TSX +3.2%
My stocks +9.3%

[wm009]

So S&P at a new top high 1552 .. Are we going to 1600 or a crash or a correction?

He said the S&P500 was going to crash in,,, August 2012 was it, or sometime within the second half of the 2012. Still waiting. His boldest claim hasn't come true.

[Uranium101]

He said the S&P500 was going to crash in,,, August 2012 was it, or sometime within the second half of the 2012. Still waiting. His boldest claim hasn't come true.

You have no idea how the prediction field works. The S&P500 might have crashed 1% for a day or 2, or hour or minute or 2, and that counts as prediction came true.

[wm009]

You have no idea how the prediction field works. The S&P500 might have crashed 1% for a day or 2, or hour or minute or 2, and that counts as prediction came true.

I guess the next time he makes a claim, I'll get him to clarify the definitions of the words he uses. Especially crash. I hope no one followed his advice and sold everything, as he advised.

[rfdrfd]

Watch if you want to see how serious others out there are on market analysis: Market Profile.

They talk about AAPL and GOOG as well, all as he projected.

http://www.shadowtrader.net/weekend_updates2013/130310we_final.html

[rfdrfd]

Perfect example from today that Gaps are magnets waiting to be filled.

The setup for shorts on SPY and QQQ are the two lines at the top of each chart, setup by the instructor before market opened. The target is the demand area (two lines) below.

SPY 100% hit and went beyond the target and more. QQQ did not hit, but came very close.


http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/861/20130403spyqqq.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/20130403spyqqq.jpg/)

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