What are you buying?

[morpheiz]

I hope we can begin an informative discussion on what investors are buying (and selling) during this incredibly volatile market along with some rationale.

Buy/hold for long term. Swing trading. Seasonal trading?

For starters, I'm eyeing Gold ETFs for the seasonality play on Gold. I'm also looking at ABX, G

Following the work of Don Vialoux
· Strength in the July to September period corresponds to strength in gold. Gold strengthens when gold fabricators are buying gold to make jewelry for the Christmas and Dhaliwal seasons.
http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/
http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2012/05/01/seasonal-investing/

The volatility is scary so I've put in all my stop losses yesterday.
Also looking for dips in the market to buy more IPL.UN to DRIP

What are you buying today?


This webpage and discussion forum is provided for discussion purposes only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. We do not guarantee the accuracy of any statements or information. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of the particular investment.

[ACC-Major]

I have seem one of my stocks goes down by 10% in just 2 hours, and then it closed up higher by 10%.
Stop loss will not be sufficient.
Another example would be if you set your stop loss at 10%, but the stock opens 15% lower. It skips over your stop loss orders.

As for gold, it's not luxury or jewelery, you buy gold for money.
Gold and Silver are like currencies; the supplies won't increase nearly as fast as the printing presses around the world.

[cmackie]

I'm currently holding Cdn stocks ITP, SW, SJ, PLB, BCB and PSI. Held them each between 1 and 3 months and will likely make some changes when earnings season starts getting busy in early August. I'm hoping for some earnings suprises but if they miss I'll be looking to make changes.

[Mark77]

XIU (the TSX60 ETF), and selected cash-heavy mid-cap producing gold and silver miners.

[Kaitlyn]

I bought a little Goldcorp G for $34.34. Will see what the coming days/weeks bring!

[angelok]

I believe that the next Bull Market is just around the corner. Therefore, I am staying away from any Gold investments.

I am buying US financials, in particular USB which is trading @ 12X current earnings.

I also bought TPC - PE @ 7X, and MSFT - PE @ 10X.

[Mark77]

I believe that the next Bull Market is just around the corner. Therefore, I am staying away from any Gold investments.


What makes you think that gold going up (and/or gold stocks going up) and the stock market going up are mutually exclusive?

[angelok]

What makes you think that gold going up (and/or gold stocks going up) and the stock market going up are mutually exclusive?

IMO, Gold has already peaked. The next bull market will not be including Gold or Gold stocks.

[AntonyLingo]

I believe that the next Bull Market is just around the corner. Therefore, I am staying away from any Gold investments.....

For those of you who have missed the boat on the current bull market, all you have to do is look at the 10 yr US bond.... the next bull market isn't around the corner, its in a different asset class.

There has been a bull market in US bonds for almost a year now...... and not to quote Jim Cramer, but there actually is a bull market somewhere at all times. You just need to open your eyes.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?nosettings=1&symb=10-YEAR+TREASURY+NOTES&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=10109954&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=8&rand=1252129764&compidx=&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1&showColor=False&returnUrl=%2fquickchart%2fquickchart.asp%3fsymb%3d 10-YEAR%2520TREASURY%2520NOTES%26insttype%3dFuture

[Sniper001]

IMO, Gold has already peaked. The next bull market will not be including Gold or Gold stocks.
Interesting view. I think the gold miners at the current levels, especially Goldcorp, is very attractive for a long-term hold. Almost a no brainer if somebody doesn't have any gold/gold miner exposure in their portfolio, can tolerate a bit of risk and pain in the short-term (not much pain though in my opinion), and is well diversified in other industries.

[ccyk]

goldcorp's recent weakness is due to 1) mexico mine cant be (reasonably)fixed...lack of water is not something a private corp can do, cash cost is going yo rise as lower production to share the cost/oz
2) the redlake mine is fixable, but again, op margin is going to be weak.

[ccyk]

I only bought metal stocks pre 09 and switched to buying oil only now...
realized that fact that oil capex is way way lower than miners, plus way faster payback period and comparable IRR/NPV discount to miners.
it is easier to for a jr oil to grow big, it only takes a few wells to hit in a roll to become self-funded growth company(no dilution). where as a jr miners will take 10+years to grow, plus all the dilution.....

[morpheiz]

goldcorp's recent weakness is due to 1) mexico mine cant be (reasonably)fixed...lack of water is not something a private corp can do, cash cost is going yo rise as lower production to share the cost/oz
2) the redlake mine is fixable, but again, op margin is going to be weak.

Do you believe G is a buy at these levels for the intermediate to long term? I think money management is important and I should be well diversified before at this time

[Mark77]

Do you believe G is a buy at these levels for the intermediate to long term? I think money management is important and I should be well diversified before at this time

I personally don't know about Goldcorp specifically (it always seemed to be one of the more expensive senior names), but it'd be pretty silly to buy just a single firm.

[charliebrown]

Got out of some Open Range shrs today (thank goodness Peyto came along as the white knight), put the proceeds into Zargon (ZAR.TO).
Cant seem to figure out why oil is back to $87 but oil producers are still trading near 52wk lows (and nat gas no longer in the $1.xx range)

[ccyk]

I personally don't know about Goldcorp specifically (it always seemed to be one of the more expensive senior names), but it'd be pretty silly to buy just a single firm.

I prefer putting all eggs in a single basket and watch it more carefully than my child. it is more silly to buy lots of companies and don't know a thing about them.

[ccyk]

Got out of some Open Range shrs today (thank goodness Peyto came along as the white knight), put the proceeds into Zargon (ZAR.TO).
Cant seem to figure out why oil is back to $87 but oil producers are still trading near 52wk lows (and nat gas no longer in the $1.xx range)

zar has good assets. but watch out for its cash burn rate. I think they will do some financing later...good or bad not sure.

[charliebrown]

zar has good assets. but watch out for its cash burn rate. I think they will do some financing later...good or bad not sure.

They did a $57 mil convertible debt issue during Q1; then sold some assets last month for $36 mil. I sincerely hope they're not going to do an equity issue at multi-year lows
Seems like shares are halted right now.......

[lazymonkeygod]

Passport Potash (PPI) and Kinross Gold (K)

[morpheiz]

I prefer putting all eggs in a single basket and watch it more carefully than my child. it is more silly to buy lots of companies and don't know a thing about them.

I don't have enough funds to overcome the commission cost (Scotia Itrade) to invest in multiple companies if I'm betting on Gold Bullion going up in August/September. Oh well, I bought a big chunk in Goldcorp on Friday and I'll try not to look at it until the end of August. Good luck everyone

[Cerenity]

havent been too active lately, but did buy some JPMorgan on Thurs before the close, and Sysco on Wed.

[gnuman]

I lost my confidence in the market, but I'd avoid Kinross Gold it always underperformed and shot itself in the foot with its purchase of Redback mining.

Right now Intel and Arm looks good. McKesson stock hit a new 52wk high and drug distributors seem to be a good area now. ABC and CareFusion the maker of hospital carts is a good investment but not as good as MCK

[morpheiz]

Penn West (PWT.TO) down 4% today after downgrades by RBC and Barclays. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120718-710305.html

Good buy at this price? Dividend seems safe. 35% payout ratio


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PWT.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94977731769


Company Ticker Yield PE Ratio Dividend Dividend TD Probability of Cut
Payout Ratio Per Share
Parallel Energy Trust PLT.UN 16.33% -- 100.00% $0.96 Low probability of a dividend cut
Eagle Energy Trust EGL.UN 10.77% -- 94.20% $1.05 Low probability of a dividend cut
Freehold Royalties FRU 9.68% 18.47 78.09% $1.68 Less than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Enerplus Corp. ERF 18.06% 44.30 68.66% $2.16 Dividend has been cut by 50%
Crescent Point Energy CPG 7.63% 50.97 59.13% $2.76 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. ZAR 14.48% 27.63 56.06% $1.20 Greater than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 6.65% 17.88 49.46% $2.64 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Pengrowth Energy PGF 13.55% 26.96 47.29% $0.84 Greater than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Progress Energy ResourcePRQ 3.66% 18.23 45.34% $0.40 Low probability of a dividend cut
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 6.09% 21.64 41.69% $1.20 Low probability of a dividend cut
Vermilion Energy Inc. VET 5.46% 21.31 40.46% $2.28 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Bonavista Energy Corp. BNP 10.15% 15.42 38.67% $1.44 Less than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Penn West Petroleum PWT 8.38% 9.41 35.41% $1.08 Low probability of a dividend cut
Peyto Exploration & DevePEY 4.05% 19.53 32.47% $0.72 Low probability of a dividend cut
Trilogy Energy Corp. TET 1.99% 175.5 21.01% $0.42 Dividend payout is low and we do not expect a dividend cut

* Data from Globe and Mail

[rfdrfd]

Penn West (PWT.TO) down 4% today after downgrades by RBC and Barclays. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120718-710305.html

Good buy at this price? Dividend seems safe. 35% payout ratio


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PWT.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94977731769


Company Ticker Yield PE Ratio Dividend Dividend TD Probability of Cut
Payout Ratio Per Share
Parallel Energy Trust PLT.UN 16.33% -- 100.00% $0.96 Low probability of a dividend cut
Eagle Energy Trust EGL.UN 10.77% -- 94.20% $1.05 Low probability of a dividend cut
Freehold Royalties FRU 9.68% 18.47 78.09% $1.68 Less than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Enerplus Corp. ERF 18.06% 44.30 68.66% $2.16 Dividend has been cut by 50%
Crescent Point Energy CPG 7.63% 50.97 59.13% $2.76 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. ZAR 14.48% 27.63 56.06% $1.20 Greater than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 6.65% 17.88 49.46% $2.64 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Pengrowth Energy PGF 13.55% 26.96 47.29% $0.84 Greater than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Progress Energy ResourcePRQ 3.66% 18.23 45.34% $0.40 Low probability of a dividend cut
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 6.09% 21.64 41.69% $1.20 Low probability of a dividend cut
Vermilion Energy Inc. VET 5.46% 21.31 40.46% $2.28 We do not expect a dividend cut or change to capex budget
Bonavista Energy Corp. BNP 10.15% 15.42 38.67% $1.44 Less than 50% probability of a dividend cut
Penn West Petroleum PWT 8.38% 9.41 35.41% $1.08 Low probability of a dividend cut
Peyto Exploration & DevePEY 4.05% 19.53 32.47% $0.72 Low probability of a dividend cut
Trilogy Energy Corp. TET 1.99% 175.5 21.01% $0.42 Dividend payout is low and we do not expect a dividend cut

* Data from Globe and Mail


My suggestion would be: No. I know you all like to look at fundamentals, but look at the chart. NO one is trading it with fundamentals. price dropped from 46 to 12.70 !! Dividned means nothing if your principal is lost. people who are still holding from 45 --> 12.70 are collecting dividend, but so what? Lost 70% of your money already?

1) stay away from ventures (lack of rules)
2) PWT.to is on a BIG timeframe down trend, the play here is SHORTING it. Shorting is higher probability

14.59 was an excellent SZ to short at back in July 5 (from the zone from June 18), now current price is 12.72.

But again, to me, stay AWAY from ventures. Lots of other stocks in the proper TSX market to trade. This is a DOWN trend, do NOT buy and stand infront of a train, thinking you can stop it. Go with the trend.

[rfdrfd]

Oh ya, everyone, please do not think the only way you can gain money in the market is by BUYING. There are TWO sides.

Going long (buy low sell high)
Going short (sell high, buy low)

Please do not believe all the TV, books, etc, that you've read. Shorting is also a skill you need to learn. Markets crash always at a FASTER rate than going up. Look at the charts and you'll see. Shorting at the right times will earn you lots more money and faster.

[ccyk]

Oh ya, everyone, please do not think the only way you can gain money in the market is by BUYING. There are TWO sides.

Going long (buy low sell high)
Going short (sell high, buy low)

Please do not believe all the TV, books, etc, that you've read. Shorting is also a skill you need to learn. Markets crash always at a FASTER rate than going up. Look at the charts and you'll see. Shorting at the right times will earn you lots more money and faster.

same as selling calls & puts. if hedged correctly, yield better than dividend stocks.

[charliebrown]

My suggestion would be: No. I know you all like to look at fundamentals, but look at the chart. NO one is trading it with fundamentals. price dropped from 46 to 12.70 !! Dividned means nothing if your principal is lost. people who are still holding from 45 --> 12.70 are collecting dividend, but so what? Lost 70% of your money already?

1) stay away from ventures (lack of rules)
2) PWT.to is on a BIG timeframe down trend, the play here is SHORTING it. Shorting is higher probability

14.59 was an excellent SZ to short at back in July 5 (from the zone from June 18), now current price is 12.72.

But again, to me, stay AWAY from ventures. Lots of other stocks in the proper TSX market to trade. This is a DOWN trend, do NOT buy and stand infront of a train, thinking you can stop it. Go with the trend.

Hmm...PennWest is a $6 billion mkt cap oil producer dual listed on TSX & NYSE (not some small cap listed on the ventures exchange)

The 2006 highs ($45?) got whacked by the income tax rule change on Halloween that yr. dont know if it will ever get back to that price though.

While most oil & gas names have bounced back with the recent rally in oil pricrs, PWT & Pengrowth have bee stuck mear their 52 wk lows.

You could probably argue that PRQ was stuck in a downtrend for most of 2012; dropping from $16 to the $9-&10 range. Then its JV partner, Petronas, bought them
out for $20 in cash. Not saying that PWT is up for sale, but it does have a rich partner in Mitsubishi for nat gas projects in BC.

[angelok]

My suggestion would be: No. I know you all like to look at fundamentals, but look at the chart. NO one is trading it with fundamentals. price dropped from 46 to 12.70 !! Dividned means nothing if your principal is lost. people who are still holding from 45 --> 12.70 are collecting dividend, but so what? Lost 70% of your money already?

1) stay away from ventures (lack of rules)
2) PWT.to is on a BIG timeframe down trend, the play here is SHORTING it. Shorting is higher probability



What do you mean it's not trading with fundamentals? PWT is a major natural gas player. That's the reason the stock is taking a big hit. :-0

[charliebrown]

What do you mean it's not trading with fundamentals? PWT is a major natural gas player. That's the reason the stock is taking a big hit. :-0

Actually, PWT is more oil & liquids focused; 60/40 split iirc (light oil & ngl vs nat gas)

NG is almost back to $3 and wti oil is at $90; yet PWT is trading at prices even lower than when oil was at $77 or when NG was at $1.90. -- Maybe market believes oil will head back & stay at $65-75. Or someone is trying to put a cap on the price to facilitate a nicer sounding buyout premium?

Insiders were buying a couple of months ago in the $14-16 range. No recent buying -- possibly due to Q2 reporting blackout or they know something is wrong?

I've seen insider buys being reported for ZAR and PLT_un; both much smaller than PWT. However, both have bounced back about 5-10% off their recent 52 wk lows.

[charliebrown]

Anyone know if/when RFD's owners will fold or find a restructuring deal?

YLO's convertible debt has gone up 25% in the last week. Granted, thats from $8 to $10 (on $100 face value) and up from its 52 wk low of $5.xx.

Was able to recover some losses when the converts moved from $18 to $33 last yr. Wonder if history will repeat again.

[ccyk]

just stay with pure oil plays (90%+)
any NG and NGL will get big reserve write down @ year end and trigger bank credit pull...
on average they arnt making any money with NG under 3. so there is 0 value with NG assets, not till at NGL pipeline get built in another 5 years minimal...

canadian oil is looking way better with WTI spread narrowing. plus seaway pipeline reversal and plus ethanol from corns drop all bullish for oil.

[charliebrown]

just stay with pure oil plays (90%+)
any NG and NGL will get big reserve write down @ year end and trigger bank credit pull...
on average they arnt making any money with NG under 3. so there is 0 value with NG assets, not till at NGL pipeline get built in another 5 years minimal...

canadian oil is looking way better with WTI spread narrowing. plus seaway pipeline reversal and plus ethanol from corns drop all bullish for oil.

How many pure plays are there? Even oily names like PetroBakken, Baytex & CPG are only at 80/20 NGL + oil vs gas split. Some condensate is priced at a slight premium to WTI oil and NGL wells typically have lower op costs

Nexen reported this morning; missed estimates, but improvements in cash flows and production volumes. I think NXY is almost 90% oil & liquids, but a large chunk of its volume is from Long Lake oil sands. Operating costs there are nearly $65 per boe! Corporate netbacks in the $45 range is nice though.

[ccyk]

How many pure plays are there? Even oily names like PetroBakken, Baytex & CPG are only at 80/20 NGL + oil vs gas split. Some condensate is priced at a slight premium to WTI oil and NGL wells typically have lower op costs

Nexen reported this morning; missed estimates, but improvements in cash flows and production volumes. I think NXY is almost 90% oil & liquids, but a large chunk of its volume is from Long Lake oil sands. Operating costs there are nearly $65 per boe! Corporate netbacks in the $45 range is nice though.

here are some canadian pure oil plays tickers off my head: pry dtx scs arn
but i am still not buying because international oil plays are still cheaper relatively, enjoying brent pricing

actually nxy's production from longlake is only 16% of total production. and the failure of its performance has already been priced over past several years imo.

[ccyk]

Dear OGIB Reader,

The North American oil market is going through a fundamental change that will affect the price of oil for the rest of this decade—fast-rising shale oil supplies from North Dakota and Texas.

(Other shale oil plays will contribute as well, but none will come close to the revolution happening in those two states.)

This could mean lower oil prices for the next several years. I don’t foresee the collapse in oil prices like what happened to natural gas, but even a 30% permanent drop to $70/barrel from $100 will impact junior and intermediate producers who spend all their cash flow.

And folks, almost all of them spend all their cash flow.

To me, this situation has two outcomes:

1. The juniors/intermediates will reset to a lower valuation/lower multiple to take into account lower profitability from lower oil prices. That is happening now and is almost done, IMHO.

2. Balance sheet will become more important than it was in a bull market, when juniors could raise money with no problem to fill the gap between cash flow and spending. Now the financing market is very fickle—one day it’s open; the next—no way.

With this in mind, here are a few questions for you to ask management teams in your research. Most of these answers can also be found in the middle of the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) in the quarterly financial statements.

QUESTION #1 –
What price deck are they basing their cash flow on? Because if it’s above $75, I would expect downward revisions this year. OK, maybe they can use $80, but that would be, IMHO, a bit optimistic (especially north of Cushing, Oklahoma, which includes all of Canada ;-)).

The price of oil in 2012 may average better than that, but moving forward from now, it’s tough to see North American oil improving much more than $10 a barrel (i.e., over $80-$85) for the next 18-24 months.

I hope I’m wrong and we all make buckets of easy money in the next year at $95 oil, BUT the fast-growing supply in the US is competing with Canadian oilsands for pipeline and refinery capacity, which is already close to being full. Whoever is willing to take the lower price gets to sell their oil.

QUESTION #2 –
What is their net cash/net debt? Make sure you use the word NET, as the number you get could be GROSS... as going into this downturn, in April, the market was still focused on growth and the income statement. Now it will be focused on the balance sheet. That’s a BIG change, especially for Canadian producers who for the most part spend AT LEAST 100% of cash flow... often up to 150-200%.

The “growth at any cost” mantra of a bull market could mean that some high growth companies that got premiums in their stock in the past will now have their valuations lowered by the market.

QUESTION #2b –
What is their “total liquidity”—how much money do they have available to them? This would be how much room they have left on their debt capacity, plus any net cash they have. If they have $10 million net debt on a $50 million line, they have totally liquidity of $40 million. With $10 million net cash, the total liquidity is $60 million.

QUESTION #3 –
What is their debt to cash flow ratio at $70 oil? Anything over 1.5:1 in the juniors will get punished a bit, and over 2:1 will get punished a lot. Institutions will buy those stocks last in any new bull market, and without institutional liquidity those stocks will not move up.

QUESTION #3b –
With the yield stocks, the same question is phrased like this—what is your all-in, payout ratio at $70 oil? When you put their drilling budget and dividend payouts up against cash flow, if it’s even over 100%... that’s bad news now.

As reference, every single one of the 10 companies in a most recent Macquarie Capital weekly energy update showed payouts higher than cash flows. 10 of the 17 US mid-cap producers were scheduled to spend more than their cash flow. It was 8 for 14 in the Canadian mid-caps, and all 12 of the small caps were spending more than cash flow. You get the picture. Spending cutbacks this year must happen, which will reduce growth.

QUESTION #4 –
Will they reduce their spending to meet their new lower 2012 cash flow? As I said above, there is almost NO FREE CASH FLOW in the Canadian junior/intermediate energy patch—they regularly spend more than they cash flow.

And in a declining price environment, the market gets more sensitive about energy producers spending within their cash flow. If the oil price declines so much that their cash flow goes down below what they plan to spend, they may have to cut back drilling—slowing production growth. Slower growth means a lower multiple in the stock.

That makes companies NOT want to cut back spending/drilling. But once The Market KNOWS a management team must cut back, it starts to price all that in, anyway.

Investors will punish a stock quickly when it announces a spending cut (despite the fact that saving the money and preserving the balance sheet is the right thing to do)... and punish it slowly if management doesn’t quickly cut back spending. So the stock either does a quick cliff dive when management does the prudent thing, or it drowns slowly until they do cut spending or everyone thinks the price of oil will stay high.

The reality is, they won’t tell you that. By law, they have to say “no” even as they are sending out the press release that they are indeed reducing spending (“lowering capex” is the industry jargon)... because that’s a material fact, and they need to make disclosure to everybody at the same time via a press release.

QUESTION #5a, b, c and d –
How much production do they have hedged now—at what prices? (i.e., how much future profits have they locked in?) What percentage of their production is that? And when do the hedges run out? Not many companies have hedged production at higher prices, but those who have will get rewarded with a slightly higher valuation—especially if it’s a Tier One junior.

So what kinds of stocks should I be investing in as the market adjusts to this new, lower oil price scenario?

1. Those with net cash, then those with very low debt ratios (less than 0.5:1)

2. Oil focused (there are only 4-5 gas stocks worth looking at in Canada now)

3. International stories that get Brent pricing, which is based out of London, England—it is now $10-$15 above WTI, the US benchmark oil price.

- Keith
i agree

[cmackie]

WFT had an interesting report today. GCL had some reasonable numbers a couple days ago and the distribution is getting back to a more sustainable level. I may look at dipping in.

[lazymonkeygod]

stocking up on kinross gold.

[charliebrown]

Holy short squeeze

YLO +340%
YLO.PR.A +262.5%
YLO.PR.B +263%
YLO.PR.C +71%
YLO.PR.C +75%

[ccyk]

Holy short squeeze

YLO +340%
YLO.PR.A +262.5%
YLO.PR.B +263%
YLO.PR.C +71%
YLO.PR.C +75%

lol i'd short it with this dead cat bounce. there is a major, fundamental need of change of its business model, along with high uncertainties. it will take a long time to prove the change to be successful, giving window for shorts to escape. but if it is a failure, it will only take a short time to run to $0 killing all longs in one shot.

[charliebrown]

Yeah...there's a major recapitalization ... pretty much all existing commons, preferreds, convertible debt being wiped out (get 15% of new shares). Existing debt holders get teh other 85%

[rfdrfd]

Bought some QQQ in the morning, right at a nice Demand zone: 62.63 , exited at 63.44. A happy $0.81 profit per share. DONE

[Mark77]

I think NXY is almost 90% oil & liquids, but a large chunk of its volume is from Long Lake oil sands. Operating costs there are nearly $65 per boe! Corporate netbacks in the $45 range is nice though.

Ouch....I wonder if Long Lake will ever be economic? $65 boe isn't even cashflow positive on an op-ex basis, and that's not even covering a dime of capex.

The CNOOC deal likely heavily discounted the existence of the Long Lake disaster on Nexen's balance sheet -- but I wonder how many other technical disasters are lurking? I personally think the next round of oilsands projects, if they get go-aheads, are going to have the bar set much higher. Could be very interesting times for the Alberta economy in the next few years, that's for sure.

[Cerenity]

hey rfdrfd

what do you think of the island cluster formation that Rogers just completed with today's pop?
i believe it completes the formation which started in late April

[Fox2k]

What are you buying today?


puts

:p

[morpheiz]

So both G.TO (Goldcorp) and ABX.TO (Barrick Gold) reported earnings today.

They both reported lower net income compared to the previous Q2
- ABX - 35 percent to $750 million, or 75 cents a share, from $1.16 billion, or $1.16, a year earlier.
- G - 45 percent to $268 million, or 26 cents a share, in the quarter ended June 30, from $489 million, or 52 cents, a year earlier.
(Removing one-time charge items, it decreased by 19.6% profit dropped to $332 million, or 41 cents a share, from $413 million, or 52 cents.)

ABX stock price dropped 6.18% and G increased 2.9% as of right now 2:16 PM.
This is because G revised full year 2012 guidance on July 10 and at that point the stock dropped 10%. Whereas ABX didn't warn of lower production and increased costs.

I had bought G after the drop and when it was on it's way up. Then I saw it go back down a few %s.

[Kaitlyn]

I had bought G after the drop and when it was on it's way up. Then I saw it go back down a few %s.

I got in at $34.34... I didn't average down when it was in the 32s, but oh well... a nice pop today. Think we'll see it go even higher? Wouldn't mind selling @ $40 :)

[morpheiz]

I got in at $34.34... I didn't average down when it was in the 32s, but oh well... a nice pop today. Think we'll see it go even higher? Wouldn't mind selling @ $40 :)

Hey Kaitlyn, I think I bought it on the same day. July 13? I got in at 34.54. My position was too large to average down when it went down to $32 :( I'd be too scared to average down anyway.. not experienced enough. Looking for other opportunities. I just put in a trailing stop loss now at 5% so at least I'll get my money back. My rule is to wait for around $40 or until mid-late Sept to sell whether it keeps going up or not (i say this now... but who knows).

Seeing how ABX recovered today, good job to whoever bought at $31.xx

[menaknow]

Going to buy some VSB for the RRSP today. Need some bond exposure which I currently DO NOT have.

[charliebrown]

Bought back into Taseko Mines (TKO); sold them in Feb for $3.65 (missed the run-up to $4)
Q2 copper production is almost 50% higher than Q1...granted, copper prices are down ~15% qoq

Pretty much getting the development projects for free...could be a nice pop if Prosperity ever gets permitted

[angelok]

I am adding to my BPO holdings. - Significant discount to NAV.

[ronthecivil]

What I WANT to buy is some natural gas producers ideally with a history of giving dividends to go long on them.

What I have recently bought is more RIM, more YLO, and some HEP. But I would file that under gambling.

[rfdrfd]

What I WANT to buy is some natural gas producers ideally with a history of giving dividends to go long on them.

What I have recently bought is more RIM, more YLO, and some HEP. But I would file that under gambling.

Please put auto stop triggers on RIM and YLO. The probability of going up is Very low. Not sure why you'd wanna buy those to go up.

HEP is okay, but you should have waited for a lower entry point.

[ronthecivil]

Please put auto stop triggers on RIM and YLO. The probability of going up is Very low. Not sure why you'd wanna buy those to go up.

HEP is okay, but you should have waited for a lower entry point.

I am buying them low because I expect that one day they will recover. If it makes you feel better they are very small positions (a couple k total) and small overall. Like I said gambling. And for example I only need YLO to go above 0.15 to profit so no biggy it's not like I bought at 5 bucks a share....

As long as it keeps tossing out dividends I don't mind aiming for EXACTLY the bottom as long as I get in while near it.

Either way what I want next is some good energy stocks oil and especially gas prices won't be this low in the long term.

[cmackie]

Anyone follow HNL horizon north logistics? They had a great report last night. I tried to buy right at the open but got greedy and chased the ask for a few minutes. Still lots of potential here as it should get on the radar of more managers.

[ronthecivil]

Hmm to get my oil and gas fix with less of the options involved in HEE taking a look at FILL.

[lazymonkeygod]

passport potash, st. elise mines, kinross, uragold...lets hope we hit the big one...

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Spls, msft, pwt.to, su.to, hal, vlo

[ccyk]

came across this, interested in these big discount-to-NAV stocks
http://i.imgur.com/NoEgD.png
http://howtoinvestonline.blogspot.ca/?Wt.ac=+e0023_ad1e_hp&OmtrRef=https://www.bmoinvestorline.com/
in particular, these 2:

United Corporations Ltd (UNC) discount 34%
It would be a surprise on the other hand to see this fund disappear anytime soon. In existence since 1929, this large fund with $860 million in assets looks to be conservatively managed. It has continued to pay a dividend on common shares (it also has preferred shares in its capital structure) since forever and its total return looks comparable to the mix of Canadian and world indices matching its investment portfolio. The management fees are low enough to be ETF-like at 0.46% plus another 0.1% or so service fee to E-L Financial. The fund can understandably appeal to investors who subscribe to the fund's objective to achieve long term growth in common equities worldwide.

On the hand there are some caveats. The large discount is seemingly more less permanent. Going back to at least 1996, there has been a discount of anywhere from 20% to 45%. Mechanisms that might reduce the discount such as share redemptions, retractions or buybacks are flat out ruled out by fund policy. There is no automatic wrap-up date for the fund. Another fact, a limitation to some and an advantage to others who trust their ethics and judgment, is that the fund is controlled by E-L Financial, which is in turn controlled by the Jackman family.

With respect to the discount, though it might not go away, its historic range is quite wide and an investor could well see some lessening of it, leading to stronger returns if that happens, since the 34% is in the mid to upper historic range. It would be ironic to make trading profits on a fund with a hard-fast non-speculative philosophy.

Economic Investment Trust (EVT) 32.8% discount
This fund is very much like UNC. It is very old (1927 launch), low MER (only 0.32%), forever trading at a significant discount to NAV, big ($420 million in assets) and controlled by the same family with the same long term equity appreciation investment objective. EVT's discount has also seesawed, ranging from as little as 15% in 2006 to as much as 46% in January 2001. An eyeball look suggests that the discount has been greatest in times of economic and market turmoil. The biggest difference is that EVT has no leverage at all, no debt and no preferred shares either. Perhaps another discount reversion play while collecting dividends?

[Jungle]

Bought some mcd @ 86.90.

[ronthecivil]

Bought some more BBD.B (but only 100 shares) at 3.74. House money off of dividends from my larger EFT holdings.

[Cerenity]

sold entire position in AT&T (T) last week
sold entire position in Potash (POT) last week of July

added some positions last week, in materials, energy, financials, and health care areas

[ccyk]

looking at afren listed on london, trying to figure out if it is worth all the trouble paying 1% commission & duty to buy it.

[morpheiz]

Spot Gold up to $1616 / ounce right now.
Goldcorp up 4.36% right now, but up 9% from July 13.

Tired of waiting for monetary stimulus to boost Precious metals and lower USD index.
Sold 2/3 of my holdings of G.TO for 9% gain on that portion.

Will possibly wait for a drop to rebuy

[Kaitlyn]

Spot Gold up to $1616 / ounce right now.
Goldcorp up 4.36% right now, but up 9% from July 13.

Tired of waiting for monetary stimulus to boost Precious metals and lower USD index.
Sold 2/3 of my holdings of G.TO for 9% gain on that portion.

Will possibly wait for a drop to rebuy

I'm up over 10% on Goldcorp - hoping for some more gains before I pull out

[cmackie]

Picked up SPB Superior Plus a couple days ago and looking at PSD Pulse Seismic.

[morpheiz]

Good job on holding onto G.TO
Went up to $39.54 today. It's consolidating around high $38.xx now
We will see $40 soon. My first seasonal trade that has worked! (I tried Encana in 2008 and I'm still a shareholder :( Thinking of averaging down for long term)
I'm up over 10% on Goldcorp - hoping for some more gains before I pull out

[Kaitlyn]

Good job on holding onto G.TO
Went up to $39.54 today. It's consolidating around high $38.xx now
We will see $40 soon. My first seasonal trade that has worked! (I tried Encana in 2008 and I'm still a shareholder :( Thinking of averaging down for long term)

Ya, it's doing well for me in my TFSA! :) Unfortunately I didn't have more free cash to throw at it. I bought confident it was going up to at least $37 in not too long...

Now the question is when to exit.... :)

[McPaul]

Heavily buying magnum hunter (mhr) over the last two months

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Spls, msft, pwt.to, su.to, hal, vlo

Overall accuracy 66%, overall gain from August 4th last year. (Wins: HAL, VLO, SPLS), (Losses: MSFT, PWE), (Break-even: SU)

[Rickson9]

I purchased Guess? (GES) @ $22-$24 in 2012. It was a tiny buy (RESP/TFSA) so nothing significant. I haven't bought anything in ~2 years because the markets have been expensive. My 15 year average annual return is ~15.1% per year.

Table of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPQ3FBRjFLZ0d0emM/edit?usp=sharing)

Graphical representation of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPOXlKLXJXNDJyRkk/edit?usp=sharing)

My returns include dividends. My returns have also been adjusted by fees/commissions/withholding. The index does not include dividends. Adjust as you see fit. Stocks held: 6. Most stocks ever held during 15 year period: 6.

Since I wasn't able to find any screaming deals in the stock market from 2010 to 2013, I bought a few rental properties in Phoenix, AZ. It was easier for me to find deals there.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

18.61% annualized gain without including dividends from SPLS, MSFT, PWE, SU, HAL, or VLO. The ROI calculation did not factor in fees/commissions (6 stocks).
S&P500's return over the same period was 16.89% annualized gain. If I factor in dividends and fees, I would probably have an ROI that's 2.5-3.5% above the market... Not great by any means, but meh, still better than the benchmark and a heck of a lot better than GICs/gov't bonds


I purchased Guess? (GES) @ $22-$24 in 2012. It was a tiny buy (RESP/TFSA) so nothing significant. I haven't bought anything in ~2 years because the markets have been expensive. My 15 year average annual return is ~15.1% per yea18.r.

Table of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPQ3FBRjFLZ0d0emM/edit?usp=sharing)

Graphical representation of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPOXlKLXJXNDJyRkk/edit?usp=sharing)

My returns include dividends. My returns have also been adjusted by fees/commissions/withholding. The index does not include dividends. Adjust as you see fit. Stocks held: 6. Most stocks ever held during 15 year period: 6.

Since I wasn't able to find any screaming deals in the stock market from 2010 to 2013, I bought a few rental properties in Phoenix, AZ. It was easier for me to find deals there.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

I purchased Guess? (GES) @ $22-$24 in 2012. It was a tiny buy (RESP/TFSA) so nothing significant. I haven't bought anything in ~2 years because the markets have been expensive. My 15 year average annual return is ~15.1% per year.

Table of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPQ3FBRjFLZ0d0emM/edit?usp=sharing)

Graphical representation of results (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bwb1PD4476rPOXlKLXJXNDJyRkk/edit?usp=sharing)

My returns include dividends. My returns have also been adjusted by fees/commissions/withholding. The index does not include dividends. Adjust as you see fit. Stocks held: 6. Most stocks ever held during 15 year period: 6.

Since I wasn't able to find any screaming deals in the stock market from 2010 to 2013, I bought a few rental properties in Phoenix, AZ. It was easier for me to find deals there.

Smart move, I was trying to convince some friends to co-invest in some rental properties in Seattle, Las Vegas, and SF Bay Area but things didn't pan out :'( Or else we could've easily achieved an ROI in excess of 30% factoring in commissions/fees/taxes... sigh, being young and not having enough equity sucks - firstworldproblems, LOL!

[Justin]

Picked up some Apple at $453 US last week.

[cmackie]

Current portfolio has a roughly equal weight in the following Cdn equities: ITP, SVC, BAU, IFP.A, PKI, WJA, TCL.A, WEQ, GLN, TIH. A few reports coming out in the coming weeks can hopefully get things moving.

[van_ws]

Not going to buy much this year, but planning to get some IPL.UN, PPL and HR.UN in the coming few months. My portfolio doesn't have many losing stocks (Only SLF, MSFT and PWT) and several big winners (V, HI, T, EMA and YHOO).

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

Hopefully you exited around $42-46 range... or else you would've had a loss by now :(


Ya, it's doing well for me in my TFSA! :) Unfortunately I didn't have more free cash to throw at it. I bought confident it was going up to at least $37 in not too long...

Now the question is when to exit.... :)

[morpheiz]

Not going to buy much this year, but planning to get some IPL.UN, PPL and HR.UN in the coming few months. My portfolio doesn't have many losing stocks (Only SLF, MSFT and PWT) and several big winners (V, HI, T, EMA and YHOO).

I'm synthetic DRIPping IPL.UN and HR.UN. Recently they dropped but I haven't thought about buying more as they would be too weighted in my portfolio. Maybe I should average down on HR.UN.

[morpheiz]

So what are people buying nowadays? Do you think gold miners will be a good short term buy? I got stopped on CGI Group (GIB.A) when I went on vacation - looking to rebuy back in.. Please share your buys

[charliebrown]

Nko.to

[angelok]

Recent purchases for me: T.HLF, T.BAM.A, N.ARI, N.AGNC, N.SDIV, N.GREK, N.IRET, N.MGM

[ccyk]

Nko.to
are you sure? it is a drill bit play

[charliebrown]

are you sure? it is a drill bit play

High risk high reward :) Scotia research has a unrisked price target > $200 ...don't know what they're smoking :)

The financing "risk" was taken care of when the convertible debt was issued in Nov/Dec. Rode it up to $11.50 and got out; getting back in at low $7 seems like a no-brainer.
I guess market was spooked that NKO's partners want to spend more on its India properties given that the government there will approve price increases.
Seems like last Friday's press release addressed some of those risks.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

VIXY and SPXS = huge buying volume and strong price increase.

[ccyk]

High risk high reward :) Scotia research has a unrisked price target > $200 ...don't know what they're smoking :)

The financing "risk" was taken care of when the convertible debt was issued in Nov/Dec. Rode it up to $11.50 and got out; getting back in at low $7 seems like a no-brainer.
I guess market was spooked that NKO's partners want to spend more on its India properties given that the government there will approve price increases.
Seems like last Friday's press release addressed some of those risks.
not the type of play i want to be in. I only buy low risk high reward:razz:

[monomono]

I'm holding ITB since Dec 2012 - up 10% so far.

[Terrific_Deals2k8]

WLP, TEVA, and GLW would be my safer bets...
MRVL, NVDA, CTRP, and CY are moderate risk...
BAC, TCK, SU, PWE, and NOK are high risk...

[Alpine84]

Been following ALDW and NTI for a while now... looking for an entry point.

[brunes]

I think I am going to pick up SCU again. Has a nice dividend and I have a very strong suspicion they are going to surprise with their upcoming results due to Tassimo.

[KOOPAS]

Recent purchases have been CJP.TO (japan exposure) ZJG.TO (junior gold index) MTY.TO (dividend increase sold me)

[nicktan]

Accumulate Sandstorm Gold (SSL.TO) at a bargain price. May go lower and will buy even more. Countries are printing more and more money, US debt ceiling has not yet resolved, Japan continues easing and gold is down...who's kidding who?

[nicktan]

Also watching other gold stocks: ABX.TO, G.TO, YRI.TO, FNV.TO. All have been hammerred since last week and all but FNV.TO are at new or closed to their 52 week lows. Prefer YRI.TO and FNV.TO over others that I listed. SLW.TO is another one that I have on my watchlist.

For tomorrow I would expect a choppy market so will be watching SPY and will buy puts.

[Cerenity]

So what are people buying nowadays? Do you think gold miners will be a good short term buy? I got stopped on CGI Group (GIB.A) when I went on vacation - looking to rebuy back in.. Please share your buys

i've been mainly selling some richly valued consumer staples, and buying either

1. boring infrastructure related toll road types (utilities, MLPs)
or
2. unloved due to fiscal cliff, sequester, etc (defense, health)

will continue to add on weakness