33.5 years before global warming becomes "almost surely dangerous" - NASA

[Bazooka Joe]

According to this, our atmosphere already contains 383ppm CO2. It's increasing at a rate of 2ppm/year. 450ppm is "almost surely dangerous", which means even if the rate of CO2 production stays the same as it is now (which it won't), there's trouble ahead in 33.5 years.


----------------------------

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2007/06/01/nasa-warming.html

NASA scientist calls for 'full court press' to save ice caps

Dramatic action is needed to save the Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves from global warming, a NASA researcher says.

“We probably need a full court press on both CO2 emission rates and non-CO2 forcings to avoid tipping points and save Arctic sea ice and the West Antarctic ice sheet,” James Hansen, from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in a release.

Another decade of "business-as-usual" will make it difficult to avoid the change, he added.

Hansen and co-researcher Makiko Sato from the Columbia University Earth Institute concluded that global warming has driven the Earth's climate near to "critical tipping points," which occur when a small temperature increase triggers an effect that gets worse as it feeds on itself.

An increase of one degree above the global temperature in 2000 "is likely to be dangerous," because it will push the climate to a tipping point.

Hansen and Sato identified the Arctic and Antarctic ice as two vulnerable areas in a study based on simulations published Thursday in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. They acknowledged that identifying "dangerous" effects is partly subjective.

The study found global warming of 0.6 degrees in the past 30 years was mainly caused by greenhouse gases made by humans, and a "moderate" additional rise "is likely to set in motion disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and Arctic sea ice."

Higher temperatures melt ice, exposing darker surfaces that absorb more heat and speed the ice sheet breakup. As oceans warm, the ice shelves that otherwise slow ice flows melt more quickly, so the whole process speeds up.

Freshwater sources and species habitat are also threatened, the authors said.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased from the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million (ppm) to 383 ppm today, and is rising by about two ppm per year. Sato said “CO2 exceeding 450 ppm is almost surely dangerous, and the ceiling may be even lower.”

[ShadowVlican]

surely humans cannot be the cause of this ;)

[infinite.chaoz]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.

[actuary]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.

How soon? How many years?

[atforum]

Is not their chief-commander-in-chief not accepting any global proposal to reduce emissions?? Are these guys revolting by releasing this report :idea:

[infinite.chaoz]

How soon? How many years?

Can't remember exactly, but my ecology prof mention something about this cuz he did one of his thesis on this topic. He correlated some data obtained from ice core samples.

When ever it is, its not soon enough. Cuz its freaking hot right now.

[bionicbadger]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...

[infinite.chaoz]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...

wouldn't somebody please think of the children :D

[toujours]

Another sign that we are in the late stages of the interstitial period. I think during the last interstitial period, the Earth also experienced a significant increase in CO2 levels and temperature. The next ice age is coming. Very soon.Don't forget that the deniers have criticized Al Gore for associating past CO2 levels with rises in temperature, when in fact they like to point out that there was an 800 year lag in CO2 concentrations (probably caused by "burps" of CO2 from the oceans). I don't understand how you come to the conclusion that the next Ice Age is "soon" (whatever "soon" means).

[toujours]

In 33.5 years I probably wont have much longer to live anyway so this doesn't really bother me much...Sounds like your old age will be shi**y.

[infinite.chaoz]

Don't forget that the deniers have criticized Al Gore for associating past CO2 levels with rises in temperature, when in fact they like to point out that there was an 800 year lag in CO2 concentrations (probably caused by "burps" of CO2 from the oceans). I don't understand how you come to the conclusion that the next Ice Age is "soon" (whatever "soon" means).

From data extrapolation i guess. Its been 3 yrs since i took that class, i can't really remember all the details, but I did remember about the prof saying right before the previous ice age, there was a substantial increase in the factors that we are experiencing right now. Also recall something about the ice age can be triggered by the orbit, tilt, and wobble the earth relative to the sun. Don't know how that fits in with CO2. I'm just throwing these things out there to make the discussion more interesting :cheesygri

[Driftwood]

Pffft what does a NASA scientist know...

:cheesygri

[shabby]

So this global warming thing started just now? Hmm intresting...

[zmtomako]

global warming or not, its getting hot here

screw everything, some1 think of my AC->electric bills

[sixer]

Lot of selfish people posting in this thread, not to mention they're won't be another ice age, just simply 30% of the coastal areas won't exist, where are those people going to go? Temperatures will be much higher, greenland will be gone, species will be gone, droughts, famine, immense storms, and not far off the end of the world as we know if our governments don't change things. North America is the worst polluter.

Do your part, vote Green Party, get rid of your suv and/or luxury sedan or sports car, and be energy efficient. Every other government in charge can't get it right, give them a chance.

Our poor kids future, it's so sad.

[infinite.chaoz]

Lot of selfish people posting in this thread, not to mention they're won't be another ice age, just simply 30% of the coastal areas won't exist, where are those people going to go? Temperatures will be much higher, greenland will be gone, species will be gone, droughts, famine, immense storms, and not far off the end of the world as we know if our governments don't change things. North America is the worst polluter.

Do your part, vote Green Party, get rid of your suv and/or luxury sedan or sports car, and be energy efficient. Every other government in charge can't get it right, give them a chance.

Our poor kids future, it's so sad.

Ha, voting Green Party just for that? Yes, we'll save the planet, but what use if society is left ungoverned. Alot of their platform seem to be based on fantasy. They make work in fairly land, but this world is too real for that.

[sixer]

lol, sorry, but if there's no planet, there's no planet. You can't replace it. Government can be replaced, economies will again rise, etc, etc.

All the money in the world won't be you a new planet.

Unfortunately our world won't start to panic until it's too late.

[infinite.chaoz]

lol, sorry, but if there's no planet, there's no planet. You can't replace it. Government can be replaced, economies will again rise, etc, etc.

All the money in the world won't be you a new planet.

Unfortunately our world won't start to panic until it's too late.

Of course government can be replaced. Just like the nazi regime, that is after all the damage was done. Let see know, at this rate, according to the article, we have about 33.5 yrs. One government term is 4 yrs, I wonder which will be destroyed faster? Society or the planet? Why would voters care if they will live to their 90s while they know damn right that their treehugging government can't keep them from getting stabbed while sleeping?

[sixer]

I'd take a knife to my heart to save my little girl's life if that's what it took.

I want her to have a good life and for her kids to have a good life.

It's people like you who don't care about the earth and what it will be like for generations to come.

Our War Vets fought in WW1 and WW2 for us to enjoy the wonderful life we have today. We need to fight for the planet just like they fought for our freedom.

You need to thank God for everything you enjoy every day. Too many people take everything for granted.

[infinite.chaoz]

I'd take a knife to my heart to save my little girl's life if that's what it took.

I want her to have a good life and for her kids to have a good life.


Which parent wouldn't take a knife for their children? I would too give my life to some1 I care for. If you want her to have good life, then you should choose a sensible government. A government who not only protects the environment but also protect its people. Green party seem to lack one of them. The green party in the form that it is in right now, are not capable of that. In fact, even with a majority, they wouldn't be able to hold up all its pro-environmental policy. Not in this state. Also, look at what they have to offer in terms of justice. Not very much. So what if you have the planet habitable for billions of years to come. Would it still be worth living if we go back to flinging feces at each other? Is this the kind of society you want your progeny to live in?

I can't change your mind about which party to vote for. But at least keep in mind that a solid government should not just look at making the planet livable, they must also look at making the planet worth living.

And you accuse me of taking things for granted. If that was the case, then you sir are guilty of that as well. Bills and legislation that grants you your rights and freedoms are passed by lawmakers, not environmentalists.

[sixer]

It's too bad you don't see the big picture and what were heading down with global warming. It's also too bad the majority of the population is like you too.

Al Gore's example in An Incovenient Truth is the best.
He put's a bunny in a pot of boiling water, it jumps right out.
He puts it in a cold pot and slowly, slowly, slowly, increases the heat.
The bunny doesn't do anything drastic until it's boiling. But, by then it's too late.

That sir is what the current governments of Canada and the US are doing.
Oh ya, we'll decrease this by 2050 (In the back of their minds not caring about anything except getting re-elected)

All about the money, which won't mean anything if you don't have a planet.

Canada and the US have the lowest emissions standards compared to any other modern nations. Our cars can't even be sold in China because they don't meet their emissions standards. We are polluting at an unbelievable rate.

We have too much land and the coal factories etc are all spread out. We don't notice much. Overpopulation isn't an issue. Wait until 30% of the coastal areas dissapear including half of BC. The world will want to come here.

Europe has been so much more aggressive because everything is so more evident there. Less land, residential and commercial is much more close together, etc.

I'm tired, going to bed. It's too bad people can't wake up. Keep voting Liberal, PC and NDP idiots. Eventually we'll need a change. And when the Green party does get in, the pot will be boiling and it will be too late, and all our children will be wondering what we were thinking.
Why didn't my Dad 'infinite.chaoz' know better. I can't have freedom if I don't have a world to live in.

[Cacti]

OMG Im gonna be 50..

[infinite.chaoz]

Why didn't my Dad 'infinite.chaoz' know better. I can't have freedom if I don't have a world to live in.

Actually they'll be asking why did daddy get killed by some 16 yo. criminal who just bought a gram of marijuana for $2.99 from Dominions with the grant he got from government for doing nothing all day. Well, we probably can't say that, because it not politically correct to call him a criminal because the green party supports the use of restorative justice, rather than prison.

It funny, you keep avoiding the questions I pose to you. You insist that the Liberals and Conservatives are breaking promises. CAN YOU SWEAR ON YOUR DEAR LIFE THAT THE GREEN PARTY WILL KEEP ALL OF ITS PROMISE LISTED IN ITS PLATFORM ONCE ELECTED? If so, how? You think alternative energy grows out of trees? You think efficient recycling programs are free?

Most if not all the pro-environment programs they promise hampers the same industries that pay the taxes to fund these programs and then some. A bit conflicting don't you think?

What I find even more funny is how you idolize Al Gore, the same person that hypocritically violated you belief of "bunny not jumping when the water is not boiling". He certainly didn't jump out of the water when it wasn't boiling when he was VP, since he never submitted the Kyoto Protocol to a vote in the senate when he had the chance.


All about the money, which won't mean anything if you don't have a planet.

Regarding this comment, it sounds like you are willing to donate your entire life-saving including your daughters education fund to the environment. If that is the case, on behalf of humanity, I thank you. After all, whats the purpose of saving money when we don't have a planet?

[Flyer]

Or we could spend several hundred billion on a colony on Mars or the moon...all that money, AND we get a new planet to stripmine...

[king_george]

Mars could use some global warming. It's too damn cold there :mad:

But really Mars Needs Women!! (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060672/)

As for hoping the greenies will save the world, remember they too are politicians. They are scum. No political party has ever worked towards anything except getting and keeping power.

Pinning hopes on an unknown political party that's been on the fringes for so long it makes the New Dummy Party look like sophisticated progressive humanitarians...:D

I'll do whatever I can within my power to stop warming assuming that we are the cause. That's all one person can do.

[infinite.chaoz]

Pinning hopes on an unknown political party that's been on the fringes for so long it makes the New Dummy Party look like sophisticated progressive humanitarians...:D


Well, according to our friend who lives in a forest somewhere in kitchener, the Green Party is the next best thing since slice bread.

[sixer]

infinite.chaoz, if your parents didn't drop you as a kid you'd realize I'm just trying to make the point that no other political party has done anything serious about the environment, and given the fact that were destined for disaster within our lifetime, why not give the Green Party there chance. Because according to you for a party that's never been in power they've always done a horrible job.

And for 'King George' who stated 'No political party has ever worked towards anything except getting and keeping power'
That's my point! Let's give them a chance, they could turn things drastically around, because nothing is changing!!!
Our coal plants are still open, industries still have not been forced to clean up their acts, our vehicles are still not as emissions savy as those in China, and we still consume too many resources in direct relation to our total population and those of other industrialized countries.

The evidence is there, your just ignoring it because it's the Inconvenient Truth.

[kitbor]

Another tiger on the paper. Oh, i'm sooooo scare.

[infinite.chaoz]

...the avoidance of answering any question continues.


infinite.chaoz, if your parents didn't drop you as a kid

WOW, so you have resorted to this just because you can't win an argument.


you'd realize I'm just trying to make the point that no other political party has done anything serious about the environment, and given the fact that were destined for disaster within our lifetime, why not give the Green Party there chance. Because according to you for a party that's never been in power they've always done a horrible job.


Hey, Canada has never tried to communism or nazism, why don't we give them a swing at society and see where they take us? If your parents didn't drop you as a kid, maybe you should spend a little time to read through the Green Party's platform. Or get your daughter to read it to you. They too can "turn things around" drastically. Would you vote for the nazis if they promise you that global warming will be fixed by next year?


Let's give them a chance, they could turn things drastically around, because nothing is changing!!!
Our coal plants are still open, industries still have not been forced to clean up their acts, our vehicles are still not as emissions savy as those in China, and we still consume too many resources in direct relation to our total population and those of other industrialized countries.


At the risk of you avoiding my question once more, I will ask you one last time, where will the money come from to fund these expensive "world-changing" programs promised by the Green Party? You make it seem like global warming is entirely localized in Canada and North America. If you were to start taxing heavy environmental levy's on these company, like the Green Party have suggested. These industries will move to another country where the policies are not as strict, especially now when the Cnd. dollar is at its record high. We'll have 10x more pollution, 3rd world countries gets depleted of their resources, people in these country becomes suppressed and exploited by the transnational companies, Canada economy spirals downward, and humanity ruined both environmentally and economically.



The evidence is there, your just ignoring it because it's the Inconvenient Truth.

Of course evidence of global warming is there. But you seem to embrace what ever is popular without thinking.



Regarding this comment, it sounds like you are willing to donate your entire life-saving including your daughters education fund to the environment. If that is the case, on behalf of humanity, I thank you. After all, whats the purpose of saving money when we don't have a planet?

So I guess you are willing to donate your life savings.

[Bazooka Joe]

Another tiger on the paper. Oh, i'm sooooo scare.

Don't worry about the warnings on the cigarette packs either, I'm sure that's a conspiracy too...

[toujours]

Another tiger on the paper. Oh, i'm sooooo scare.:rolleyes:

[billdozer]

Lot of selfish people posting in this thread, not to mention they're won't be another ice age, just simply 30% of the coastal areas won't exist, where are those people going to go? Temperatures will be much higher, greenland will be gone, species will be gone, droughts, famine, immense storms, and not far off the end of the world as we know if our governments don't change things. North America is the worst polluter.

Do your part, vote Green Party, get rid of your suv and/or luxury sedan or sports car, and be energy efficient. Every other government in charge can't get it right, give them a chance.

Our poor kids future, it's so sad.

Helen Lovejoy, is that you?

[KorruptioN]

I'm just trying to make the point that no other political party has done anything serious about the environment, and given the fact that were destined for disaster within our lifetime, why not give the Green Party there chance.

I don't know about you, but I don't think a new government will do much to help our cause. Government doesn't need to change, society needs to change. Needless waste and blatant inefficiencies everywhere, many areas where we as society can clearly improve on.

Banking on the Green Party or waiting for this 33-and-a-half years to come by... I don't know what is more risky.

[billdozer]

http://i72.photobucket.com/albums/i168/kieranmahon2000/HelenLovejoy.jpg

[king_george]

And for 'King George' who stated 'No political party has ever worked towards anything except getting and keeping power'
That's my point! Let's give them a chance, they could turn things drastically around, because nothing is changing!!!
Our coal plants are still open, industries still have not been forced to clean up their acts, our vehicles are still not as emissions savy as those in China, and we still consume too many resources in direct relation to our total population and those of other industrialized countries.

The evidence is there, your just ignoring it because it's the Inconvenient Truth.
Not a fracking chance of giving my vote to the greenies. They want power, they have to start at the bottom and prove themselves like every other political party. Elizabeth May is a true dyed-in-the-wool loonytune who has no idea how the political world works and who hasn't had the opportunity to become a political scumbag yet. But she will if given power.

PS if China is so savvy, why is it rated as one of the most polluted places on earth? Beijing has more smog days a year that Toronto ever has and they are much more severe.
http://english.people.com.cn/200605/17/eng20060517_266386.html and read the last paragraph >:(
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/waste/story/0,,2085212,00.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=2250133
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35554
Chinese Blog link pics of a polluted lake: http://zhaomu.blog.sohu.com/48399110.html

That's only a tiny sample from Google. I'd never use China as a pollution comparison factor.

Only history will decide if an inconvenient truth is fact or fiction. I'll do what I can do reduce my personal footprint but I won't fall for the scare tactics being used by Gore and Suzuki et al.

[infinite.chaoz]

That's only a tiny sample from Google. I'd never use China as a pollution comparison factor.

Only history will decide if an inconvenient truth is fact or fiction. I'll do what I can do reduce my personal footprint but I won't fall for the scare tactics being used by Gore and Suzuki et al.

No, not google. Don't use google. Google causes global warming.
Regarding the inconvenient truth, Al-gorism is a fad. It'll die once something new comes along, the the hoola hoop and POGs.

[gordholio]

As usual, the mainstream press spoon feeds us what we're supposed to believe - what they want us to believe.
There's certainly no shortage of "news" designed to create the society wanted by the elite (and the elite-controlled media).