Personal Finance

Behind the GARBAVERAGE numbers for T.O. and GTA RE stats

  • Last Updated:
  • May 22nd, 2014 5:46 pm
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Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
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Calgary
licenced wrote: Amm, hate to break it to you but the low priced units have consistently been representative of the highest volume. This is why you know, they record the highest sales numbers.
Your charts clearly showed a significant change in the sales mix, with the greatest losses in sales occurring in the cheap units, and even gains in the higher-priced units. Hence, the 'statistical mirage' that I've been claiming exists all along.

I didn't extend my comments to make a claim that there was a crash in the figures quite yet, but the trend is very ominous.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Deal Fanatic
Jul 3, 2011
5496 posts
2649 upvotes
Thornhill
Cherry picking months too. Good for you!
Mark77 wrote: Your charts clearly showed a significant change in the sales mix, with the greatest losses in sales occurring in the cheap units, and even gains in the higher-priced units. Hence, the 'statistical mirage' that I've been claiming exists all along.

I didn't extend my comments to make a claim that there was a crash in the figures quite yet, but the trend is very ominous.
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Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
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Calgary
licenced wrote: Cherry picking months too. Good for you!
It was the most recent month. Do you disagree with your own data?
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Jul 16, 2003
10398 posts
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Toronto
Can anyone post a chart showing the number of online applications submitted last century? It is the only fair way to analyze the numbers correctly.
Andre Oliveira - Mortgage Agent
Mortgage Intelligence - FSCO# 10428
Deal Fanatic
Jul 3, 2011
5496 posts
2649 upvotes
Thornhill
Don't try to change course here, I'm far smarter than you. You chose one month whereas I analyze as you can clearly see over many.
Mark77 wrote: It was the most recent month. Do you disagree with your own data?
Obviously you ignored May and April to just jump to your usual conclusion. Well, since you like the vacuous "statistical mirages" phrase so much, then enjoy this:

How do you account for this shift?
[IMG]http://i42.tinypic.com/aykj09.jpg[/IMG]

Perhaps now you can begin to understand that your fabricated ‘statistical mirage’ terminology is void of any meaning because the facts must be analyzed as a whole in order to develop the picture in colour and not in sepia.
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Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
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Calgary
licenced wrote: Perhaps now you can begin to understand that your fabricated ‘statistical mirage’ terminology is void of any meaning because the facts must be analyzed as a whole in order to develop the picture in colour and not in sepia.
I was just using your numbers. There's nothing fabricated about the presence of a 'statistical mirage' when it comes to clamining that house prices are going up when the sales figures show an increase -- it is pretty obvious, by your numbers, that the sales mix has changed significantly.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Deal Fanatic
Jul 3, 2011
5496 posts
2649 upvotes
Thornhill
And the point is - no one month, nor one price change, nor one unit sold over asking, nor one unit sold under asking does makes up the market going forward. You and peeefffour and all your other crashophiles (very apt phrase as coined by a previous poster) wouldn't be so wrong for so many years if you'd just taken the time to understand it as it's unfolding as opposed to declaring it as you wish it to be.
Mark77 wrote: I was just using your numbers. There's nothing fabricated about the presence of a 'statistical mirage' when it comes to clamining that house prices are going up when the sales figures show an increase -- it is pretty obvious, by your numbers, that the sales mix has changed significantly.
Yes, I know, your usual comeback will be that this is an inccoherent post.

It likely is.

For you.
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3208 upvotes
Calgary
licenced wrote: And the point is - no one month, nor one price change, nor one unit sold over asking, nor one unit sold under asking does makes up the market going forward. You and peeefffour and all your other crashophiles (very apt phrase as coined by a previous poster) wouldn't be so wrong for so many years if you'd just taken the time to understand it as it's unfolding as opposed to declaring it as you wish it to be. Yes, I know, your usual comeback will be that this is an inccoherent post.
We use facts. None of us on the 'bear' side are declaring anything. The numbers are almost speaking for themselves. And they look awful.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
[OP]
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Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
441 upvotes
licenced wrote: Your temper is flaring again, that usually gets you banned. BTW, tell me again why I am mentioned in your ignore list since it’s clearly non-existent?
My signature clearly says "Do not expect answers". Clearly English is your primary language but I can't say that Logic is your favourite playground
That transpires from everything you post here.

Do the charts say ‘adjusted’ or ‘unadjusted’ and what does this (*) little thingy reference? How about the header, what does it state?
Your logic is by all means Real Estate agent logic.
The fact that you mentioned there that the numbers are unadjusted does not give you the right to compare adjusted and unadjusted numbers (unless you are TREB or CREA memeber)
Only by that measure and your charts are VOID!
I figured since you’re using those words and ‘stalling’ of late, you’d at least have understood my blog when you read it - even after you did so today.
I do not read garbage.Not today, not tomorrow not in general.
Your blog is crap. Alexa says that it practically does not exist: http://www.alexa.com/search?q=itssoldyo ... r&p=bigtop

I encourage you to use Alexa to find the popularity of any other RE blogs you know and post it here so we can compare those blogs with yours
Here is one suggestion if I may: http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/

You spent 6.5 hours between your post # 556 and #565 trying to figure out simple math and still couldn’t. This is why your attempt to collect data will never amount to anything – you’ve no clue what they actually mean. I’ll help you out:
That is called projection in psychology.
I do not have that amount of time at my hands.
Remember that I am not real estate agent out of work
six grade joke ignored
All in all this explains the time you have to argue with us around here.
You are clearly out of work.
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
[OP]
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Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
441 upvotes
As a mortgage broker or as a real estate agent I would be less worried about RE price increases
and more worried about transactions and dollar volumes

By their own data and by using unadjusted numbers for 2013 GTA and Toronto in particular are down BIG TIME.
Certain posters hers find joy that the average prices go up BUT they don't say a word about the very measure of their own income: $volumes and # of transactions

Here is why they are so sad and irritable these days. I can certainly understand that and I feel for them.

[IMG]http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/424/yvm2.jpg[/IMG]

Actually if you count in the fact that the 2013 real and final numbers will be smaller you can actually see why there is so much panic
and huge efforts in the media to change the buyers' perception.

They should actually try to change the buyers's salaries but that is another topic.

If I was government I would take the RE agents out of the equation.
That will automatically and drastically reduce the home prices and it might move the market with very little impact on the interest rates and indirectly on the economy.

The disaster is bigger and wider than I imagined.
Here are the values calculated based on TREB numbers
The things are actually worse than this since the June numbers are unadjusted ...and actually the 2013 numbers are unadjusted

What I have calculated below is the % of Year to Date $volume reported to 2012 (which is THE REAL MEASURE OF WHERE THIS MARKET IS GOING) for each area
Cumulative $vol2012 as of June=X
Cumulative $vol2013 as of June=Y
w=Y/X

below you have the w values per type of dwelling and per area (GTA,905,416)


Enjoy

Condos <---General disaster

416=0.897577412 <--disaster
905=0.859310668 <-disaster
GTA=0.888163146<--wide spread disaster

Detached
416=1.017246878 <-- barely holding the line considering that the prices increased <--core inflation as posted today 1.3 <-- speculators in deep shirt
905=0.910999462<----big disaster
GTA= 0.961035465

Semi
416=1.016667846<-- barely holding the line considering that the prices increased <--core inflation as posted today 1.3 <-- speculators in deep shirt
905=0.944885762<--disaster
GTA= 0.955519244


Townhouse <--this is the only sector where we have improvement !!!

416=1.120426891
905=1.025021817
GTA=1.052651264


All in all I would say that it is worse that I imagined and worse than the Average values in my signature reflect it

I would love to hear Gomyone and Licenced explanations for this.
They are both business persons AND while the garbaverage prices might matter to us (the buyers) they should be more interested in these YtoD d$volume which SUCK !!!
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 3, 2011
5496 posts
2649 upvotes
Thornhill
PF4RedFlag wrote: Your blog is crap. Alexa says that it practically does not exist: http://www.alexa.com/search?q=itssoldyo ... r&p=bigtop
Go fish!
Where are your charts on this page? I see many of mine starting at page 1

http://tinyurl.com/ma642lf

http://tinyurl.com/kxgdcro

http://tinyurl.com/k44eap3

http://tinyurl.com/my7sdx9

Starting at page 2.

http://tinyurl.com/k9b8udl

http://tinyurl.com/m5p5sah


How do you suppose they got those rankings, because no one reads them?

And unlike you who spams numerous times per day every garth, tom, rick and harry website with your links, it would be safe to say that in total I’ve posted links to my site on RFD only and less than 10 times, 11 if I stretch.

Now have yourself some fun. Click on this link and you’re all over that page, but whose charts show up below?

http://tinyurl.com/pf4n3mk

---------

t-15
[OP]
Banned
User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
441 upvotes
you are indeed IT illiterate
That is not totally condemnable :-))
What is condemnable in your case is the self-sufficiency and the omniscience that you display here.

Let's play along with the idea that I am indeed recharts just for the pleasure to show you how ignorant you are, yet how much you pretend you know.
First Google searches and labels images by their name, mostly!
So if recharts does not call his charts by that name they are not displayed in your searches
Secondly recharts heat maps are mostly based on Google technologies and very little on pictures so they won;t show in picture search engines
In other words you can not use a telescope to look at deep seas even if you navigate shallow waters.

Yet to play by your silly game here is a search by using keywords like "toronto real estate heap maps"
http://tinyurl.com/p9o5s8d

Recharts's heat maps are in the pole position

However he does not pretend to live by that, on the contrary. So you saying that you did not spend time to promote your site means that you are wasting your time writing on that blog of yours
You do not have to promote it here ....
If you look at the ranking of http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/ ...well that site has some traffic babe!
That is pro work not amateurish .... it has solid ranking well above the amateurish and non profit recharts' site
Try to compete with such sites and ask yourself why despite your quality charts (which recharts took from you :facepalm :) you, the original, get ZERO traffic


BTW you failed to notice or you deliberately ignored the new chart that I posted here that shows that on average your income should be 4-7% less.
Just focus on the prices because that definitely will get the things better :-)

licenced wrote: Go fish!
Where are your charts on this page? I see many of mine starting at page 1

http://tinyurl.com/ma642lf

http://tinyurl.com/kxgdcro

http://tinyurl.com/k44eap3

http://tinyurl.com/my7sdx9

Starting at page 2.

http://tinyurl.com/k9b8udl

http://tinyurl.com/m5p5sah


How do you suppose they got those rankings, because no one reads them?

And unlike you who spams numerous times per day every garth, tom, rick and harry website with your links, it would be safe to say that in total I’ve posted links to my site on RFD only and less than 10 times, 11 if I stretch.

Now have yourself some fun. Click on this link and you’re all over that page, but whose charts show up below?

http://tinyurl.com/pf4n3mk

---------

t-15
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.
[OP]
Banned
User avatar
Mar 31, 2010
1948 posts
441 upvotes
A rarely published chart showing how the $1M dollar market froze

[IMG]http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/365/fueh.png[/IMG]

practically that segment of the market is screwed

[IMG]http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/2466/xx7.png[/IMG]

All the action and price increases are well below as you can see in the shape changes

PS: the sharp dent in the graph in July is due to a script that failed to completely collect the data
The other gaps are simply days when I did not run the script for various reasons
RE Market melting down: YtoD GTA $volumes -4%, YtoD Toronto $volumes -7%. Read more here. Admins please read this before you consider further requests to ban me. If you are on this list do not expect replies.

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