Investing

Betting Against the Entire Market

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 17th, 2017 3:59 pm
Sr. Member
Feb 17, 2012
660 posts
131 upvotes
Toronto
Why is everyone upset he bought those ETN's? He will learn from this regardless of the outcome. Regardless, these leveraged ETN's should hardly ever be held for very long. Most times never longer then a trading day. I've also learned my lesson. Now... I have a set goal in mind with these. 30-40 cent gain and I'm out. Usually that's easy to come by. I don't go by percentages. Some traders look for huge gains but that may takes weeks or months or might not even come. But if you buy on the dips for a quick scalp I think is the safest bet.

Either way, Goodluck OP.
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
4050 upvotes
Toronto
i like buying options on VXX.
Sr. Member
Apr 12, 2012
798 posts
184 upvotes
Toronto
UVXY is the worse thing bar none. This thing should only be touched when you are doing a day-trade on a down day. When there are buzz words out there (like Fiscal Cliff/Grexit/Great Fall of China etc.), that's when you look into trading with UVXY
The simplest acts of kindness are by far more powerful than a thousand heads bowing in prayer.
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Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1939 posts
2938 upvotes
Burlington, ON
Frank2029 wrote: Why is everyone upset he bought those ETN's? He will learn from this regardless of the outcome. Regardless, these leveraged ETN's should hardly ever be held for very long. Most times never longer then a trading day. I've also learned my lesson. Now... I have a set goal in mind with these. 30-40 cent gain and I'm out. Usually that's easy to come by. I don't go by percentages. Some traders look for huge gains but that may takes weeks or months or might not even come. But if you buy on the dips for a quick scalp I think is the safest bet.

Either way, Goodluck OP.
To be fair, I don't see much hate, I think the strategy needs to be better defined though because these are ultra-short term securities. Options are a better way of managing downside risk. A few up days could wipe out a ton of capital, so risk could be managed better.

If it were me, I'd buy puts on QQQ dated after the date the OP has decided this cataclysm will occur. The issue with tying up all your capital like this in inverse ETFs is that even if you're right, if it takes a few months for the event to occur you will have lost much of your capital through the daily rebalance. If you're wrong on an options strategy you get to walk away with only losing the premium. This means your downside is now controlled. That is assuming your bank and or brokerage survives this great calamity.

This is not a good instrument for those who believe doomsday is around the corner. If you are right and there is a severe liquidity event, your bank will not be able to pay you. I think a pullback is likely in the S&P, but only because the market has swelled on hope that there will be a great economic expansion and it will come in as reality becomes apparent. 2008 is not coming.

Take it for what you will. Full disclosure, all my wealth comes from investing for cashflow (DGI) and reinvesting that cashflow in other dividend payers, I have never shorted anything.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
SPX 2230 is support, first line. Next support around 2205. I would like to see a bit more weakness first week of Jan. Dec 30 low should hold.
On the bounce, if spx clears 2245, there will be easy 10 points, and potentially small rally to new highs 2290-2300. Jan 20 is OpEx and it usually coincides with market highs. As a bonus, Trump is assuming office on the 20th.
If all of the above plays out, I'm shorting the market. As of Friday, I added to NQ futures and keeping fingers on trigger to cover ES.

Edit: jan 3 - sold all NQ futures @4926 for nice gain. Working TF futures @1376.5. Will keep YM (Dow) longs against ES short. Shorted ZB (Bonds) @149'25"
Last edited by dlhunter on Jan 1st, 2017 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1939 posts
2938 upvotes
Burlington, ON
NakNak wrote: So I bought 500 shares of SQQQ @ 12.55 , 250 shares of TZA @ 19.26 , and 1000 shares of UVXY @ 7.70. Let's see how this plays into the new year :)

I'm expecting a big correction into next year. I'll post my google finance screen shot on a weekly basis.
Screen Shot 2016-12-29 at 1.13.04 PM.png
When's your next post?
Sr. Member
Nov 5, 2013
624 posts
122 upvotes
Gungnir wrote: When's your next post?
OP's 3 picks are down at 10am this morning.
SQQQ - down 1.36%
TZA - down 3.68%
UVXY - down 12.11%

If he didnt sell them in the last trading day last week, he is bleeding.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5684 posts
2251 upvotes
Thornhill
fungery wrote: OP's 3 picks are down at 10am this morning.
SQQQ - down 1.36%
TZA - down 3.68%
UVXY - down 12.11%

If he didnt sell them in the last trading day last week, he is bleeding.
Judging by OP's positions, he's 100% unhedged and 100% against market trends for this time of year (whether he fully understands how much he's against the trend or not around this time of year I'm not so sure though tbh). Astonished Face
Banned
Jul 18, 2016
2014 posts
786 upvotes
fungery wrote: UVXY - down 12.11%
Wow, what is ticker symbol for trading in the opposite direction?

Actually, this recovery this morning is sputtering out. Not sure if today will end positively.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
bewiseman wrote: Actually, this recovery this morning is sputtering out. Not sure if today will end positively.
UVXY still down 10%. Market participants expected tax selling in early Jan (OP thesis), and got spanked by short covering - sellers on thin volume from last week disappeared today. Failure to push low is akin to holding a ball under water and unable to push lower.
Market testing break out area, I would bet we go higher vs breaking down. Internals still strong and volume into up stocks greatly exceeds down stocks.
Lastly, bring on Dow 20K - this is THE target and p**y magnet.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
starting to look ugly. ouch. glad I flipped NQ and TF. Bonds are strong... near unchanged.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Fanatic
Mar 24, 2008
6278 posts
2753 upvotes
Toronto
OP, looks like you'll get an opportunity to "average down" sooner than you had anticipated.
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Deal Addict
Jan 3, 2013
2807 posts
1152 upvotes
Sidney
I love the VIX. Market rocketed in the morning....then tanked in the afternoon.....volatility to the max.....VIX down 6%. LOL
Banned
Jul 18, 2016
2014 posts
786 upvotes
favelle75 wrote: I love the VIX. Market rocketed in the morning....then tanked in the afternoon.....volatility to the max.....VIX down 6%. LOL
OP, I am heavily long TQQQ and UPRO. You are wrong wrong wrong! I am right right right! LOL :) :)

Time will soon tell.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 19, 2003
8137 posts
770 upvotes
dlhunter wrote: UVXY still down 10%. Market participants expected tax selling in early Jan (OP thesis), and got spanked by short covering - sellers on thin volume from last week disappeared today. Failure to push low is akin to holding a ball under water and unable to push lower.
Market testing break out area, I would bet we go higher vs breaking down. Internals still strong and volume into up stocks greatly exceeds down stocks.
Lastly, bring on Dow 20K - this is THE target and p**y magnet.
dow breaking 20k is a bull market sign or short sell sign to you?

would it be that if we hit 20k it should head immediately back down for a retest far below, before shooting back up again?
hi!
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 19, 2003
8137 posts
770 upvotes
dlhunter wrote: starting to look ugly. ouch. glad I flipped NQ and TF. Bonds are strong... near unchanged.
all losses regained near the close, suspiciously. seems bullish for the week to me?
hi!
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
masterhapposai wrote: all losses regained near the close, suspiciously. seems bullish for the week to me?
strong close, sellers were not able to push lower. On the side note, today's low @2239 ES is very important going forward - if it's lost, selling will accelerate.
as I said early, I expect higher prices, most likely new highs by Jan 20. Saying that, I switched into Neutral and watching the market. Dow 20K is what going to make the news and attract gullible folks - in other words, I think it will be sell the news event.

short term targets: SPX 2290-2300, Dow 20000, Nas100 4950-4975, RUT ~ 1380
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 19, 2003
8137 posts
770 upvotes
dlhunter wrote: strong close, sellers were not able to push lower. On the side note, today's low @2239 ES is very important going forward - if it's lost, selling will accelerate.
as I said early, I expect higher prices, most likely new highs by Jan 20. Saying that, I switched into Neutral and watching the market. Dow 20K is what going to make the news and attract gullible folks - in other words, I think it will be sell the news event.

short term targets: SPX 2290-2300, Dow 20000, Nas100 4950-4975, RUT ~ 1380
I have similar upside targets based on the close for S&P 500, but mine are lower than yours. I probably should put in trailing stops and fire and forget.
hi!
Member
Jan 19, 2013
275 posts
53 upvotes
Toronto
I'm holding my position throughout the entire month of January despite any loss. I rather be holding at the bottom than holding at the top.
Deal Expert
Jun 26, 2011
15096 posts
5413 upvotes
GTA
NakNak wrote: I'm holding my position throughout the entire month of January despite any loss. I rather be holding at the bottom than holding at the top.
Unless there is some major event to take things down, your $ is going to erode throughout the month using these products.

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