Bird flu pandemic is possible, CDC warns

[cipher]

Mutated virus a 'very high threat' in coming weeks, official saysThe Associated Press
Updated: 7:19 a.m. ET Feb. 22, 2005 WASHINGTON - A bird flu virus may mutate to a human form that becomes as deadly as the ones that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century.

Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday that scientists believe it is highly likely that the virus that has swept through bird populations in Asia will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.

“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,� Gerberding said in remarks at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat� based on the known history of the flu virus, she said.

72 percent mortality rate
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high — about 72 percent of identified patients, said Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.

The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.

“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,� said Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.

There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.

“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,� she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu. ... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.�

Getting ready for next year
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Gerberding said was “another harbinger� of the possibility of a human pandemic.

“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,� she said.

The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.

A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.

The government has ordered 2 million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.

CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.

[JAC]

The sad part is, once the inevitable pandemic erupts, our government doesn't have the political will to close our borders.

The next pandemic is going to be very, very ugly.

[alkaseltzer01]

that's not surprising.

ONce this is done with, another bug will come. They've predicted this a long time ago.

And it doesn't matter if borders are closed.... it will find its way into any country, even if it's enclosed in a bubble.

[Degenerate]

it's all Bush's fault

[cipher]

The Final Solution To Our Old Folks Problem

If it's anything like the flu of 1812, it'll kill a lot of young healthy people too.

[StarStrike]

Sadly, it's going to be next to impossible to make a vaccine for this strain of the flu since it has an extremely high mutation rate. The flu is an RNA Virus and RNA viruses are more prone to mutations then DNA viruses because they lack a proofreading enzyme (transcriptase). Basically, if there is a pandemic, we're screwed

[hagbard]

Anyone have any plans, other than waiting for it to come and die?

[danfromwaterloo]

Time for all Grandmothers unite and create the world's most potent chicken soup to cure the Avian Flu. Actually so strong that it has the consistancy of gummy bears, and could potentially make you lose your hair from its sheer chickeniness...