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Bitcoin trading journal: quest for 16 doubles

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  • Sep 16th, 2014 12:55 pm
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Deal Addict
May 17, 2013
1775 posts
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jetway1212 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 8:51 pm
As a CC user do you see other options than the big 3 CC companies? The credit card is not designed for internet. It was designed in 1952. Taking CC payment over internet is just a convenience of handing over your identity and rely completely on third party. The underlining of the system is still an outdated banking system.

As a merchant, transaction fees takes a considerable amount of your profit (average of 2.5% - 3.25%of your sale) Considering how tight margin of most ecommerce retailers its generally accepted as the tax for online business. Effectively, you dont think it doesnt cost consumers do you?
Get real. Systems get upgraded and adapted. Each merchant with a credit card payment processing system, can process credit card payments. Thats it.

Transaction fees are everywhere. I heard eventually bitcoin will charge higher transaction fees also. This is an unavoidable aspect of commerce. I'm sorry that you don't like to pay to receive services. But thats how the world works.

Give me a break about the 'privacy' advantage of bitcoin. First of all, I trust that gov agencies, if they really wanted to, can track you down. Please. We live in the 21st century here. Thats like people thinking there are no backdoors built into gmail or windows etc. The fact bitcoin leaves electronic trails means your 'anonymity' is a false illusion. The local PD may not have the tools but somebody does.
What made you say currency backed by central bank is "real" and others are not?. Whats the definition of currency? if i use tide detergent as currency for my business, does it mean its not "real". This is the most confused subject in people eyes. Another interesting question is what is the difference between currency and money?

As for your analogy of email and password, its completely irrelevant to bitcoin as without my private you CANT not have control of my bitcoin. The "data" you can retrieve from bits and bytes of my connection is meaningless. Further more, bitcoin is NOT anonymous as the media mislead. All the transaction can be traced and if you're not careful, your identity can be linked to transactions/wallet. Silkroad is a perfect example. Hence the Department of Homeland Security and FinCen are very much saying their current policies are still effective.
The point made was that the majority of those bitcoin users are merely pawns. They are just a bunch of users. The same as some retailer who goes and buys a computer and uses Windows OS. They dont need to know the underlying of Windows OS. THey've never looked at the source code. They don't understand the true inner workings of their OS.

People who use bitcoin, believe the points made by those who created it. You have not verified for yourself whether those claims are true. You have no way of knowing whether the system is as robust or as advertised. So to think that there are 'limited' number of bitcoins may not be true.

Furthermore, there is a difference between a theoretical abstract and the actual implementation. Many will tell you AES 256 is flawless for encryption. And theoretically it may be. But when you impliment it in code, people can add backdoors and so the reality of the product is that it is not as secure as advertised.

Gold and Silver are highly speculative. What is the intrinsic value of gold? i see goldbugs always use this term when they discredit bitcoin. The funny thing is they probably dont know. The actual utility of gold is only around 30%. Silicon or Aluminum is actually more useful than gold.
Are you serious? Any currency that goes up hundreds of percentage points over a short period of time is speculative. Bitcoin is speculative.

It has its uses. You can continue to use it. I don't care. I'm not anti bitcoin. Just stating the obvious here. I don't see myself using it. I don't see the majority of people using it. I don't see mainstream society adopting it because it is obsolete in many ways. We have existing infrastructure to do what is bitcoin offers in terms of electronic payments and that is credit systems or systems based on electronic backed credit/debit. Paypal for example. And these things already work. It has worked for a long time.
Banned
Apr 15, 2006
4572 posts
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Chatham
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm
Get real. Systems get upgraded and adapted. Each merchant with a credit card payment processing system, can process credit card payments. Thats it.
Yet, you contradict yourself with your point below being nobody has ever looked into code and they dont care underlining system. This requires "trust" Its like you trust Windows for your private data, that Microsoft doesnt implement backdoors to monitor you. Well guess what? with Bitcoin its like Linux, the source is open and verified by independent institution. How irony!
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm
Transaction fees are everywhere. I heard eventually bitcoin will charge higher transaction fees also. This is an unavoidable aspect of commerce. I'm sorry that you don't like to pay to receive services. But thats how the world works.
So you "heard" ? its that how you form your judgement? hearsay?
Also your "thats how the world works, just pay up" mentality is real nice. Sheeps dont question too, they believe thats how the world work.

Nobody says transaction should be free. Its the outrageous fee that hinders consumers spending power. Dont spin it off like that then tell me to "get real"
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm
Give me a break about the 'privacy' advantage of bitcoin. First of all, I trust that gov agencies, if they really wanted to, can track you down. Please. We live in the 21st century here. Thats like people thinking there are no backdoors built into gmail or windows etc. The fact bitcoin leaves electronic trails means your 'anonymity' is a false illusion. The local PD may not have the tools but somebody does.
OK i will give you break and actually look into bitcoin b4 making silly statements with conspiracy theories. Clearly you dont understand or know what and how bitcoin works. Exactly amusing.

sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm

The point made was that the majority of those bitcoin users are merely pawns. They are just a bunch of users. The same as some retailer who goes and buys a computer and uses Windows OS. They dont need to know the underlying of Windows OS. THey've never looked at the source code. They don't understand the true inner workings of their OS.

People who use bitcoin, believe the points made by those who created it. You have not verified for yourself whether those claims are true. You have no way of knowing whether the system is as robust or as advertised. So to think that there are 'limited' number of bitcoins may not be true.
So an open system is less trustworthy than a closed proprietary system? How naive. What you just said is actually an upside of bitcoin. It take trust completely out of the public ledger. Read more about it (blockchain)

sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm
Furthermore, there is a difference between a theoretical abstract and the actual implementation. Many will tell you AES 256 is flawless for encryption. And theoretically it may be. But when you impliment it in code, people can add backdoors and so the reality of the product is that it is not as secure as advertised.
Another conspiracy theory? well at least it can be easily checked? look at the source yourself. LOL.
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm
Are you serious? Any currency that goes up hundreds of percentage points over a short period of time is speculative. Bitcoin is speculative.

It has its uses. You can continue to use it. I don't care. I'm not anti bitcoin. Just stating the obvious here. I don't see myself using it. I don't see the majority of people using it. I don't see mainstream society adopting it because it is obsolete in many ways. We have existing infrastructure to do what is bitcoin offers in terms of electronic payments and that is credit systems or systems based on electronic backed credit/debit. Paypal for example. And these things already work. It has worked for a long time.
You're not the only one. Ppl dont understand the technology tend to cover their eyes and ignore it.
Deal Addict
May 17, 2013
1775 posts
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jetway1212 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:41 pm
Yet, you contradict yourself with your point below being nobody has ever looked into code and they dont care underlining system. This requires "trust" Its like you trust Windows for your private data, that Microsoft doesnt implement backdoors to monitor you. Well guess what? with Bitcoin its like Linux, the source is open and verified by independent institution. How irony!
Its not called contradiction. I never said one thing but did something else myself. Its simply an assumption that the average user of bitcoins don't know how it works. Never looked at the code. Wouldn't know if they were being played. There is no irony in any of this.
So you "heard" ? its that how you form your judgement? hearsay?
Also your "thats how the world works, just pay up" mentality is real rice. Sheeps dont question too, they believe thats how the world work.

Nobody says transaction should be free. Its the outrageous fee that hinders consumers spending power. Dont spin it off like that then tell me to "get real"

OK i will give you break and actually look into bitcoin b4 making silly statements with conspiracy theories. Clearly you dont understand or know what and how bitcoin works. Exactly amusing.
I dont understand bitcoin. I don't pretend to. I don't care to. I think the majority of people, other than curiosity, don't care to either.

You can continue to like bitcoin. Nobody is saying you shouldn't.
So an open system is less trustworthy than a closed proprietary system? How naive. What you just said is actually an upside of bitcoin. It take trust completely out of the public ledger. Read more about it (blockchain)
Open source or 'freemium' does not mean more secure. Linux is not more secure.

Closed source and proprietary systems are not better either.

Every system has flaws. Each flaw can be exploited. I dont think there is a flawless system.

The most important point is that you want to have a system you can trust. Parties you can trust. And reliability. We have this with existing credit payment systems, or e-commerce payment systems like Paypal. We really don't need to have a third or a fourth.
Another conspiracy theory? well at least it can be easily checked? look at the source yourself. LOL.

You're not the only one. Ppl dont understand the technology tend to cover their eyes and ignore it.
I'm not gonna argue anymore. Way past beyond my talking point against brunes to begin with. I was never in this discussion to talk about the merits of bitcoin. I dont care whether you or others like it. If enough people like it and adopt it, then it will fly. If not then it wont. I wont care either way.
Banned
Apr 15, 2006
4572 posts
124 upvotes
Chatham
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 9:53 pm
Its not called contradiction. I never said one thing but did something else myself. Its simply an assumption that the average user of bitcoins don't know how it works. Never looked at the code. Wouldn't know if they were being played. There is no irony in any of this

I dont understand bitcoin. I don't pretend to. I don't care to. I think the majority of people, other than curiosity, don't care to either.

You can continue to like bitcoin. Nobody is saying you shouldn't.



Open source or 'freemium' does not mean more secure. Linux is not more secure.

Closed source and proprietary systems are not better either.

Every system has flaws. Each flaw can be exploited. I dont think there is a flawless system.

The most important point is that you want to have a system you can trust. Parties you can trust. And reliability. We have this with existing credit payment systems, or e-commerce payment systems like Paypal. We really don't need to have a third or a fourth.



I'm not gonna argue anymore. Way past beyond my talking point against brunes to begin with. I was never in this discussion to talk about the merits of bitcoin. I dont care whether you or others like it. If enough people like it and adopt it, then it will fly. If not then it wont. I wont care either way.
Well thats the definition of contradiction. Sure you think you dodge the first one just to get hit the second one.

You dont understand or know or pretend to know but you argue based on assumption.

Amusing. I'm sure you cant argue that.
Deal Addict
May 17, 2013
1775 posts
279 upvotes
jetway1212 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 10:07 pm
Well thats the definition of contradiction. Sure you think you dodge the first one just to get hit the second one.

You dont understand or know or pretend to know but you argue based on assumption.

Amusing. I'm sure you cant argue that.
Do you want an apple?
Banned
Apr 15, 2006
4572 posts
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Chatham
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote:
Nov 23rd, 2013 10:10 pm
Do you want an apple?
Did you assume using "apple" instead of "cookies" make it more "updated" and "adapted"?

I like tropical fruit. Thank you
[OP]
Member
Nov 23, 2007
413 posts
40 upvotes
Updated Bitcoin transactions:

Your buy order of 0.131000000 BTC at 442.00000 BTC/CAD has been completely filled on Feb. 24, 2014, 11:29 p.m. (MST).

Your sell order of 0.129000000 BTC at 712.00000 BTC/CAD has been completely filled on March 3, 2014, 8:04 p.m. (MST).

Current cash in account: CAD $91.86

14 more doubles to a million dollars.
Sr. Member
Jul 27, 2006
890 posts
489 upvotes
Moncton
Aside from the bickering between sunshinemoonlight13 and jetway1212, this is potentially my favorite Bitcoin thread yet.

Props to the OP for posting actual trade details - warts and all. That is so much better than these coy BS comments by certain posters that seem to suggest they have some in depth understanding of the inner workings of Bitcoin and that this somehow enables them to consistently make money.

Personally, I don't see much future in Bitcoin and believe that it will eventually be worthless - but that's just my opinion and I could be dead wrong. However, in the meantime there is a potential to make money on that volatility if you make the right call on the buys and sells.

I like the OPs approach of starting with an insignificant investment and treating it like casino money. You might win big, or you might lose it all - but even so you have not lost much "real" money. However, I'm not sure I would have the discipline to keep playing the game after you have accumulate serious money in your trading account.

I'm looking forward to the updates and might even try something similar. So what's your next buy order?
[OP]
Member
Nov 23, 2007
413 posts
40 upvotes
March 4, 2014, 10:15 p.m. Buy 0.1841/0.1841 BTC 484.00000 CAD 89.10 CAD Open
Deal Guru
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Nov 18, 2005
10810 posts
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Kingston
trilinearmipmap wrote:
Nov 20th, 2013 9:01 pm
An analysis of bitcoin's expected performance is based on these observations:

1. Bitcoins have no intrinsic value
2. Bitcoins have appreciated exponentially over the past few years and particularly over the past few months
3. There is a limited total number of Bitcoins now and for the future
4. Anyone (or any country) could make their own digital currency, using the exact same algorithm as Bitcoin uses, and it would be equally as legitimate, or illegitimate, as Bitcoin is. I could take the Bitcoin software, rename my new currency Bitcoin Junior, and there is no reason other than herd behaviour why it should not be as valuable as Bitcoin. So although the total number of Bitcoins is limited, the total potential number of cloned Bitcoin currencies is infinite.
5. A change in government regulations could immediately make the value of Bitcoins zero, at any time.
6. Past experience shows that people will buy into a bubble (gold, real estate, Dutch tulips, tech stocks etc.) just because the price is going up. Most of them are financially illiterate.
7. Bitcoins are currently a little hard to buy - you have to jump through a few hoops to set up an account, transfer money, etc. It is getting easier to buy as time goes on, so the number of people able to buy Bitcoins will go up
8. Due to the limited number of Bitcoins, relatively illiquid market, and investor greed and stupidity, the value of Bitcoins has fluctuated wildly over brief periods of time. For example in the past week or two I have seen intraday price swings of 20% to 30%.
9. A few wealthy people and institutions such as hedge funds may be accumulating Bitcoins. Since the market is illiquid, they will not be able to buy or sell any large amount of Bitcoins without moving the price. This will give an edge to the small investor.
10. The majority of Bitcoin trading appears to come from the US and China, two nations not exactly known for free transparent markets or sophisticated investors.
11. Previous speculative bubbles (Bre-x, the tech bubble, gold, or the current real estate bubble) have continued for long after a reasonable investor (ie. me) would have thought the bubble would have burst.


Lesson learned, keep my Bitcoin and/or cash balance in the trading account at all times
Great thread. Interesting analysis and approach. Have fun!

One thing of note is that the more successful you are, you will lose the small investor advantage. Also the more successful you are and as your pot changes from $20 (who cares) to a substantial amount, as a former conservative investor will you be able to keep going vs. cash out? I guess we'll see.

Lastly, it is kinda funny that your "lesson learned" is to keep your balance in the trading account, when everyone is thinking the exact opposite after the Mt Gox failure (and all the others).

Good luck.
[OP]
Member
Nov 23, 2007
413 posts
40 upvotes
I agree with your point JWL re losing the small investor advantage. Also when the balance becomes sizeable I will need to find a way to keep my bitcoins in my own wallet while still getting into the trading platform quickly.

Latest transaction yesterday:

Your buy order of 0.184100000 BTC at 484.00000 BTC/CAD has been completely filled on March 30, 2014, 10:31 a.m. (MST).
Deal Expert
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Oct 26, 2003
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Winnipeg
good job op, you are well on your way
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Apr 11, 2008
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Unless bitcoin's price makes new highs, there's another journal tracking the loss of $1 million.
[OP]
Member
Nov 23, 2007
413 posts
40 upvotes
Processed Traded For Exchange Rate

March 30, 2014, 10:31 a.m. 89.10 CAD 0.1841 BTC 484.00000
March 3, 2014, 8:04 p.m. 0.1290 BTC 91.85 CAD 712.00000
Feb. 24, 2014, 11:29 p.m. 57.90 CAD 0.1310 BTC 442.00000
Nov. 20, 2013, 10:24 a.m. 0.0985 BTC 58.78 CAD 596.80000

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