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Cannabis (Marijuana) Stocks

  • Last Updated:
  • Nov 18th, 2019 6:43 pm
Deal Addict
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Jul 11, 2011
3515 posts
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Ontario
pentexplorer wrote:
Oct 11th, 2019 5:12 pm
I know he was a big APH pumper and I have been in his thread for over a year, will see what happens after Tuesday ;)
You're talking like I'm not here! lol
Sr. Member
Dec 31, 2015
583 posts
109 upvotes
hebsie wrote:
Oct 11th, 2019 5:21 pm
Yes, pumping when we were in an uptrend. Why on earth would I pump this past six months of losses!

Seriously, what is wrong with you??
Nothing is wrong with me. I'm not saying you need to pump or buy APHA right now, but the complete 180 and the smug attitude is the issue, and admitting that you were receiving insider tips. Perhaps you knew the deal fell through as well which caused you to sell before the short report? I'm sure many other APH holders would have liked to have access to this information.

Go back and look at your posts lol. It's embarrassing how in love you were with APH. What changed? Vic leaving?
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herculesmaxpower wrote:
Oct 11th, 2019 5:31 pm
Nothing is wrong with me. I'm not saying you need to pump or buy APHA right now, but the complete 180 and the smug attitude is the issue, and admitting that you were receiving insider tips. Perhaps you knew the deal fell through as well which caused you to sell before the short report? I'm sure many other APH holders would have liked to have access to this information.

Go back and look at your posts lol. It's embarrassing how in love you were with APH. What changed? Vic leaving?
I was never in love with APH, what I am in love with is making money. You fail to see the difference
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
charliebrown wrote:
Oct 11th, 2019 6:56 pm
Anyone following HUGE?

Just announced a 201:1 reverse split
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/f ... 00365.html


Haha comedy. As I highlighted a few days ago, these clowns are running out of money. In fact the whole sector is running out of money on the balance sheet. Longs better hope the names they are in have decent cash on the balance sheet to weather this storm.
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hebsie wrote:
Oct 11th, 2019 5:23 pm
You're talking like I'm not here! lol
Wow, they turned on you quickly.

Nothing wrong with a trend is your friend approach.
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Jefferies Canopy downgrade was interesting as he was the guy with the underperform on Hexo prior (which is now a neutral by him). But he highlighted Canopy’s still ridiculously high valuation which is still around 5x sales and their big bet on drinkable weed products.

My view ...People have hid out in Canopy because it is the big name with the big Corp backing. But the turnover at the top and lack of hitting numbers suggest the wheels may be coming off the “safe” name. With the relentless red in the sector there’s gotta be a breather in the downdraft though.
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cartfan123 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2019 9:00 am
Jefferies Canopy downgrade was interesting as he was the guy with the underperform on Hexo prior (which is now a neutral by him). But he highlighted Canopy’s still ridiculously high valuation which is still around 5x sales and their big bet on drinkable weed products.
Did you see this compilation?

Analysts change on major LP’s (weed,acb,aphria,hexo,ogi)
http://thecannabisstock.com/2019/10/11/ ... iahexoogi/

Over the last few days, several analysts have changed their target price on major Canadian cannabis producers.

Here are their analyzes and their new target price

CANOPY GROWTH

Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett downgraded Canopy Growth (CGC) to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $18.80. Despite the recent selloff in shares, Canopy is the most expensive name across the cannabis space, Bennett told investors in a research note.

The analyst, who believes the company still has “material potential” long-term, says signs of share pressures in Canada, weak margin and profit performance in the near term, a lack of material catalysts, and “question marks over how successful beverages will be” warrant a downgrade to Underperform.

Jefferies analyst Ryan Tomkins downgraded Canopy Growth to Underperform from Hold with a C$25 price target.

Jaffray

Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery lowered his price target for Canopy Growth to $40 from $49 to reflect near-term risks from a slower retail rollout in Ontario and risks to vapor sales from recent headlines. The analyst, however, keeps an Overweight rating on the shares despite a reduced sales outlook.

He expects Canopy’s new management to bring a more disciplined approach to spending and capital allocation that should help the company to continue to grow without needing new capital. Further, the company’s capital position is a “key differentiator in the industry,” says Lavery. He believes the company is well positioned with $2.3B in cash and equivalents.

BofA Merrill Lynch

BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Christopher Carey downgraded Canopy Growth to Neutral from Buy and cut his price target on the New York traded shares to $27 from $46 as he cut his multiple in half to 10 times EV/sales. While he still sees Canopy as a long-term leader in the cannabis industry, he thinks Canada industry growth is set to pause in the second half and potentially flatten, which he thinks could also be the case with Canopy.

However, consensus is modeling strong quarter-over-quarter double-digit sales growth, noted Carey. The analyst, who sees too much risk to the stock until estimates are recalibrated, also thinks news about vaping could keep impacting cannabis sector sentiment in the near-term.

AURORA

CIBC

CIBC analyst John Zamparo started Aurora Cannabis with a Neutral rating and C$7 price target. The company’s Canadian market share leadership and early international success “provide encouragement,” but its lack of U.S. exposure, continued capital allocation towards cultivation, and a balance sheet “in need of support “limit optimism on the shares, Zamparo tells investors in a research note.

MKM Partners

MKM Partners analyst Bill Kirk initiated Aurora Cannabis with a Sell rating and C$5 price target, telling investors that he believes profitability for cultivators will generally get worse before getting better given that supply will continue to grow and pricing is already decreasing.

The analyst, who also sees the company’s outsized exposure to medical marijuana limiting its growth opportunity, believes Aurora will need to raise some capital before it is able to show positive EBITDA.

APHRIA

CIBC

CIBC analyst John Zamparo downgraded Aphria to Underperformer from Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $6.50 from $12. The stock closed Thursday down 23c to $5.84. The analyst cites concerns about “aggressive” Street estimates, potential asset impairment, a “leadership void and less robust supply contracts” for the downgrade.

While Aphria likely captures a high-single-digit market share, and last month’s partnership with PAX Era was a “meaningful win,” the stock carries more risk than reward at current levels, Zamparo tells investors in a research note.

The analyst believes consensus estimates need to come down to reflect slower industry growth than previously contemplated. He thinks this will pressure the stock.

HEXO

Roth Capital

Roth Capital analyst Scott Fortune downgraded Hexo to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $3.00, down from $10.00, after the company pre-announced weak Q4 revenue and withdrew its 2020 outlook.

Hexo, which Fortune contends “has always had a good pulse on the political and regulatory environment for cannabis in Canada,” called out the legal cannabis industry’s issues there and the analyst said legal access to the Canadian cannabis market remains materially underserved, which he does not see changing in the near-term.

As of May, Canada’s planned or operating retail locations are “about 90% short of matching the store density of a state such as Colorado,” Fortune added in his downgrade note.

Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett upgraded Hexo (HEXO) to Hold from Underperform with a price target of $2.90. The pressures facing the company are now better understood following its weaker than expected outlook, Bennett tells investors in a research note.

Jefferies analyst Ryan Tomkins upgraded Hexo to Hold from Underperform with a price target of C$3.80 following yesterday’s selloff in shares.

Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh tells investors to remain on the sidelines with respect to shares of Hexo after the company preannounced Q4 results meaningfully below expectations and withdrew its fiscal 2020 guidance for revenue of $400M.

The analyst, who “very much expected” revenue shortfalls given recent adverse industry developments, says commentary on weak sell-through is an incremental risk that he did not envision “this early in the ramp.” Parikh keeps a Perform rating on Hexo shares with a $2.75 price target.

BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill analyst Christopher Carey downgraded HEXO Corp to Underperform from Buy with a C$4 price target following the abrupt resignation of its “high-caliber” CFO,Michael Monahan, after only 4 months with the company.

The analyst thinks the corporate finance organization was less developed than Monahan had realized, and likely indicates there is much work ahead.

ORGANIGRAM

Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett upgraded Organigram Holdings to Buy from Hold with a price target of $6.20. The analyst cites valuation for the upgrade as he believes the recent selloff in the shares is overdone.
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Sep 19, 2004
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Waterloo
CGC is -5% on US market, LOL

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cgc

again, analysts downgrade at the bottom (and upgrade at the top)

Canopy Growth, Hexo downgraded by Seaport; analysts recommend switch to US cannabis sector from Canadian - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canop ... quote_news
Last edited by jerryhung on Oct 14th, 2019 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Deal Fanatic
Apr 25, 2006
5449 posts
694 upvotes
APHA, ACB, CGC all down 5-7%
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
Newbie
Sep 14, 2019
39 posts
8 upvotes
Even if some of these names are nearing a bottom it doesn't necessarily mean it will bounce back up like a ball once it gets there. This sector should trade flat once it hits that bottom thereby creating an opportunity cost.

There's no good news story in this sector in the foreseeable future. If it was my money I would rotate it out and back a stock with a great news story that is ripe with growth.
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Deal Fanatic
Apr 25, 2006
5449 posts
694 upvotes
Looks like this is creating a buying opportunity.

If we gap down with APHA bad earnings, we buy the dip and possibly swing out of it. If APHA does well, buy the strong momentum and swing again.

Canadian stocks have a gap to fill.
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
Member
Aug 16, 2015
432 posts
81 upvotes
Apha just smashed the long term uptrend. Not looking great. That was a critical support IMO.

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