Up 11% in the last 4 days...
- Last Updated:
- Jan 18th, 2018 2:14 pm
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- SCORE
- emanon86
- Member
- Aug 14, 2010
- 453 posts
- 232 upvotes
- Toronto
- asa1973
- Deal Addict
- Jan 20, 2016
- 1630 posts
- 656 upvotes
- Houston, TX
llpresident wrote: ↑Aug 24th, 2017 4:33 pmI don't think you can apply that to this stock. This isn't JNJ. The past five years it has a higher P/E because it was growing. The PE needs to adjust for its new reality. There's plenty more room for it to fall IMO
Nobody know nothing, eh?Up 11% in the last 4 days
P.s. I used it as DI stock, so not so bothered with price drop, actually it's even better to re-invest...
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
- llpresident
- Deal Addict
- Dec 3, 2014
- 1165 posts
- 226 upvotes
- Ontario
- asa1973
- Deal Addict
- Jan 20, 2016
- 1630 posts
- 656 upvotes
- Houston, TX
really doesn't matter for div investing - if it will go lower, I'd buy more, if not - I'd buy smth else. The lower it goes, the higher yield it has. And I'd agree on Rodbarc analysis on it in long term (as div stock, again)
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
- llpresident
- Deal Addict
- Dec 3, 2014
- 1165 posts
- 226 upvotes
- Ontario
I don't follow that logic. You're suggesting that a stock continues to fall over the long term, and you continue to invest in that company and their failing business model. If they turn it around, then you're right, great investment. But if the stock continues to fall, possibly cutting it's dividend, well then you have just sustained a significant capital loss which greatly outweighs those prized dividends you were collecting.
- asa1973
- Deal Addict
- Jan 20, 2016
- 1630 posts
- 656 upvotes
- Houston, TX
The logic here is that falling price != falling business model. Price fluctuations (especially short-term) do NOT reflect long-term business prospective. Rather buying possibilities.llpresident wrote: ↑Sep 6th, 2017 11:04 amI don't follow that logic. You're suggesting that a stock continues to fall over the long term, and you continue to invest in that company and their failing business model. If they turn it around, then you're right, great investment. But if the stock continues to fall, possibly cutting it's dividend, well then you have just sustained a significant capital loss which greatly outweighs those prized dividends you were collecting.
Yes, the worst scenario would be falling price with cutting dividends (due to failed business model). However, I do not expect them to fail in next decade at least. Taking to account monopoly on cinema market, restrictions on "alternative" media (Netflix, Hulu, Sling), in next ~5y at least I do not see real threats to them.
P.s. It's quite different in US, however. More competition, more online content...But Canada is not a US in this aspect as well.
All other precautions work here as well - do not buy over "normal" P/E, do not put all eggs in one basket etc. It's ~10% of my DI portfolio and few % overall, so I'm not sleepless over them in any case
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
- boyohboy
- Deal Addict
- Dec 6, 2006
- 3939 posts
- 779 upvotes
- Toronto
- rodbarc
- Deal Addict
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- Dec 14, 2010
- 4527 posts
- 3607 upvotes
No decision should be made with the performance of 1 quarter. Look at year over year. Look at the cash flow estimates and guidance (which is what sustain dividends, not stock price). That 's the best indicative if a solid foundation is in place for a turn around. Price means nothing. I expect next quarter to be bleak too. But I expect recovery to begin in FY18. They only report results 4 times a year, look how patient one needs to be. As of now, with the information that is available today, and with the tracking record that CGX has in place, it 's an opportunity. We will only know if this was a good decision a few years from now. And all we need to do is monitoring execution and allocate capital accordingly.llpresident wrote: ↑Sep 6th, 2017 11:04 amI don't follow that logic. You're suggesting that a stock continues to fall over the long term, and you continue to invest in that company and their failing business model. If they turn it around, then you're right, great investment. But if the stock continues to fall, possibly cutting it's dividend, well then you have just sustained a significant capital loss which greatly outweighs those prized dividends you were collecting.
Another good example of how the stock price can fall and stay down without impacting dividends : Corus. As long as cash flow sustain the dividends, price can go in any direction. Many times it doesn't reflect the value of the business.
Rod
- Jeenyus1
- Deal Fanatic
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- Oct 9, 2008
- 5064 posts
- 1544 upvotes
- Thornhill
Another 2 or 3 quarters of similar trends and maybe $29xx seems plausible
- firesale
- Banned
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- Oct 15, 2017
- 55 posts
- 36 upvotes
hoping for better movies in the coming months.. cant believe it dipped like $35 around 1030am and back to $37 end of day.. lol.
- isd9999
- Jr. Member
- Aug 20, 2016
- 104 posts
- 64 upvotes
Cineplex is a monopoly in a shrinking business.
It is not well run.
If they cannot run a monopoly how can they run a restaurant that will have to compete against other restaurants.
The experience is bad with its overpriced food.
My work used to have a Christmas party next door at the cineplex game room but people had enough with the bad food.
We go bowling and people are happier.
It is time for ceo Ellis Jacob to go.
It is not well run.
If they cannot run a monopoly how can they run a restaurant that will have to compete against other restaurants.
The experience is bad with its overpriced food.
My work used to have a Christmas party next door at the cineplex game room but people had enough with the bad food.
We go bowling and people are happier.
It is time for ceo Ellis Jacob to go.
- firesale
- Banned
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- Oct 15, 2017
- 55 posts
- 36 upvotes
took another beating today, up to $37 ended at $35.87
- dec12
- Deal Addict
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- May 6, 2010
- 2283 posts
- 139 upvotes
- Markham
Wow, it's down to $29.55.
- jackrabbit000
- Deal Addict
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- Dec 28, 2007
- 4197 posts
- 860 upvotes
- Alberta
...and will keep going down even further.
- kanon
- Jr. Member
- Nov 26, 2004
- 152 posts
- 5 upvotes
The dividend payout ratio for cineplex is terrible. At current earnings the dividend is not sustainable. Expect a cut in the near future if business continues to perform at average.