Real Estate

CMHC predicts housing market cool down 2016

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 27th, 2015 6:17 pm
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9 replies
Sr. Member
Jul 2, 2008
610 posts
48 upvotes
Toronto
It is that time of the year when you get predictions for next year.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Apr 9, 2006
10597 posts
15792 upvotes
GT-EH
LOL @ another housing bubble thread.

I'll say it again... it won't happen until interest rates start rising.
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
You guys do know that CMHC says this every year right? And this is really a spiel of numbers than it is actually a prediction.

1. They give you a low and high range of where average RE prices are headed.
2. They then take the mean of this range and call that the "predicted" forecast.
3. Every year, the "forecast" ends up being around 1-3%, cause you know averaging.
4. Someone on this forum will post "OMG - CRASH - CMHC PREDICTED - ZOMG"
5. We will have a 100 page discussion on why RE is headed for an arbitrary % of crashing.
6. Next year, prices increase another % that is asinine. Half of the bears go into hibernation, while half stay and fight.
7. Rinse and repeat this discussion with the remaining bears and the newcomers.

What CMHC is doing here is *insert word for not smart*. Yes it is blatantly *insert another word for not smart*. I mean they are paying these bozos lots of money to come with a prediction that means nothing at all. It is a freaking average of a range they give. No *insert bad word* homes will appreciate between X% and Y%. Any moron can tell you this, without paying some shmuck (on the sunshine list).

end /rant
Deal Expert
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Aug 2, 2010
15196 posts
5016 upvotes
Here 'n There
And economists have predicted 22 of the last 5 recessions...
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jun 28, 2007
3866 posts
1027 upvotes
eonibm wrote: And economists have predicted 22 of the last 5 recessions...
...so has the yield curve.
Deal Addict
Apr 19, 2014
1042 posts
991 upvotes
Anikiri wrote: You guys do know that CMHC says this every year right? And this is really a spiel of numbers than it is actually a prediction.

1. They give you a low and high range of where average RE prices are headed.
2. They then take the mean of this range and call that the "predicted" forecast.
3. Every year, the "forecast" ends up being around 1-3%, cause you know averaging.
4. Someone on this forum will post "OMG - CRASH - CMHC PREDICTED - ZOMG"
5. We will have a 100 page discussion on why RE is headed for an arbitrary % of crashing.
6. Next year, prices increase another % that is asinine. Half of the bears go into hibernation, while half stay and fight.
7. Rinse and repeat this discussion with the remaining bears and the newcomers.

What CMHC is doing here is *insert word for not smart*. Yes it is blatantly *insert another word for not smart*. I mean they are paying these bozos lots of money to come with a prediction that means nothing at all. It is a freaking average of a range they give. No *insert bad word* homes will appreciate between X% and Y%. Any moron can tell you this, without paying some shmuck (on the sunshine list).

end /rant
Predicting is a fools came.. but very tempting if you just open your eyes to what's happening around you.. like rising record levels of mortgage and personal debt, rising sub-prime lending (the full scale unknown) etc. I can't even log on to facebook or listen to the radio without seeing or hearing a 'make money flipping houses' commercial. This year the pump was primed by two rate cuts. The 'to the moon' mentality is on full display.

Not saying next year debt ratios will be even worse or subprime lending more extensive and prices even higher.. just that it's very tempting to look at 2016 or 2017 and wonder how they'll pump up the market up more.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Apr 20, 2011
5310 posts
484 upvotes
Vancouver
Anikiri wrote: You guys do know that CMHC says this every year right? And this is really a spiel of numbers than it is actually a prediction.

1. They give you a low and high range of where average RE prices are headed.
2. They then take the mean of this range and call that the "predicted" forecast.
3. Every year, the "forecast" ends up being around 1-3%, cause you know averaging.
4. Someone on this forum will post "OMG - CRASH - CMHC PREDICTED - ZOMG"
5. We will have a 100 page discussion on why RE is headed for an arbitrary % of crashing.
6. Next year, prices increase another % that is asinine. Half of the bears go into hibernation, while half stay and fight.
7. Rinse and repeat this discussion with the remaining bears and the newcomers.

What CMHC is doing here is *insert word for not smart*. Yes it is blatantly *insert another word for not smart*. I mean they are paying these bozos lots of money to come with a prediction that means nothing at all. It is a freaking average of a range they give. No *insert bad word* homes will appreciate between X% and Y%. Any moron can tell you this, without paying some shmuck (on the sunshine list).

end /rant
Well, haters gonna hate. In some circles its considered _bad_ to have a mortgage although in Canada there isn't sub prime problem

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