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Which commodities / metals will creep up if global economy continues to hum along?

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 19th, 2017 5:06 pm
[OP]
Deal Expert
User avatar
Apr 21, 2004
36613 posts
7217 upvotes

Which commodities / metals will creep up if global economy continues to hum along?

Different websites offer different advice. Of course, I will not be speculating on futures but investing in explorer/producer stocks. Just wondering which commodities that fell hard would be creeping back up because of the economics.

Grains, food and fiber
corn
oats
rough rice
soybeans
wheat
milk cocoa
coffee cotton sugar
orange juice

Energy
oil
ethanol
natural gas
heating oil

Industrial
copper
lead
zinc
tin
aluminum
nickel
cobalt
molybdenum

Precious
gold
platinum
palladium
silver

Other
palm oil
rubber
wool
amber


I know metal went up so much last year and got a boost from Trump's victory.

Would looking at the inventory in the LME vault for metals be a good indicator?
5 replies
Sr. Member
Feb 1, 2015
554 posts
107 upvotes
MB
The list can go on : cotton, potash, uranium... The two latest at multi-year lows.

You can probably add lithium. Graphite is also one of the key materials to li-ion batteries.
Both lithium and graphite miners have pulled back lately.
Newbie
Jan 18, 2016
73 posts
6 upvotes
Winnipeg, MB
without trying to sound like a troll, what makes you think the world economy is humming right along?

i.e. interest rates at historical lows, debt of all kinds rising, real wages falling, US (trump) sounding the war horns over protectionism and on and on.

I agree that the markets are humming right along, but once that confidence is destroyed, it's a lookout below situation brewing.
[OP]
Deal Expert
User avatar
Apr 21, 2004
36613 posts
7217 upvotes
Interest is low. Less probability of personal and corporate defaults.

That alone is what makes everything so different from the past when interest rates were typically double to triple.

Lots of countries heavily indebted so central banks of all but the weakest economies with hyper inflation and hot money flowing out don't want to raise rates too fast and too soon. There's even talks about competitive devaluations.

Humming along means no major economic recessions. No bright and rosy but just moving along with no big bad news.

Real wage will not keep up with real asset inflation. We are employees, mostly salary takers. We cannot expect wages to increase with cost of living. Only the Superstars can command the salaries they want and that is but 5-10% of the workforce? Executives and cutting staff to boost bottom lines.

I am happy to be employed. No complaints really. Not short changing myself. Just grounding myself on reality. If one thinks one is so good, then go set up a business.
Newbie
Jan 18, 2016
73 posts
6 upvotes
Winnipeg, MB
I hear you, but i also think that the current low interest environment breeds complacency. look at all of the thread proponents of margin interest alone. but that's really just anecdotal, I'll admit. What is measurable though is the increase in debt payments as interest rates rise.

and why shouldn't real wages keep up with asset inflation? not that I disagree that they aren't. I grew up in what i consider a middle class house, dad worked, mom stayed home until the kids were out of the house. Now my wife and i both need to work to make ends meet and our standard of living is no better. i shudder at the world my kids will face as the middle class is slowly but surely wiped out.
[OP]
Deal Expert
User avatar
Apr 21, 2004
36613 posts
7217 upvotes
My wife and I are employees too so I'd love for real wage to keep up with inflation but I'm just being realistic with my expectations. The new CEO's of Scotia and TD Bank are no pro-employees; I'm sure there are other executives that are as ruthless.

Some CEO's of large companies are making 60-100x the salary of the average employee.

Asset inflation is even a lot worst outside Canada. Look at prime properties in HK, China, Taiwan, India, UK, they have spiralled up so much that the middle class will have intergenerational mortgages as a fact of life.

In any case, we just have to try and seek some alpha by targeting a few upcoming companies still under the radar of the masses and hold for a 2 to 5 bagger.

ceo.ca is a very interesting site with lots of helpful members, that's where I found out how commodities may actually have another run up (probably not as as high prior to subprime) but like you said, the run up would still be dependent on how strong the global economy is. Lots of talks about China slowing down with all those ghost loans and banks saddled with bad debt but so far the market is ignoring all those hearsay.
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