Investing

Couch potato investing for the last 12 years - tracking my progress

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  • Sep 23rd, 2017 2:07 pm
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Deal Addict
Sep 13, 2003
1204 posts
83 upvotes
ancodia wrote:
Sep 12th, 2017 8:43 am
I thought the point of all this was to not to try and time the market. You need think like a machine and buy regularly regardless of what the market is doing, adjusting once or twice a year to keep your asset ratios in check.
Yes you're right. I was thinking that my comment may be applicable if you have some money to add (to your whole portfolio).
Member
User avatar
Oct 19, 2016
350 posts
118 upvotes
Toronto
Appears you made a decision to invest heavily in Bonds and World stock markets.

I dont understand enough about Bonds so personally so I stay away from them but they are known to be relatively stable.

World stock market indexes performance is probably going to be LOW even over the long term. So I think you made the wrong choices of investment if you want performance.





nutcrackergirl wrote:
Sep 9th, 2017 3:05 pm
hello
i need some serious wisdom and advice
i've been investing in xaw, xic, (30%) zag, xbb (60%) and some reits (10%) about
and each day i log on i see pretty big numbers under the heading "Unrealized gains (losses)"

- for example, today it read : Unrealized gains (losses) ($1,656.16) (CAD)
- yesterday it read : Unrealized gains (losses) ($672.39) (CAD)

i am under the understanding that these bracketed numbers are fluctuating each day, as in i am not losing each amount each day, culmulatively ...

however these numbers still scare the shit out of me regardless

can someone give me some wisdom on this? like in a year will these become gains? for right now they are almost always all losses each day ... its been about a few months, i have only checked them once or twice in the past few months

i know i am not suppose to look at them, but i also know that the whole bank of canada raising interest rates are maybe affecting those zag/xbb purchases? i want them to at least hold value ... not lose ...

i also know that the three year return rate of these two bond ETFs are about 3%
but like are they suppose to be fluctuating like this so much? to the point where it feels like (note: "feels like") i am losing money daily?

will it eventually have some positive days?

i have no experience with this

it is one thing to read, another to feel
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
1011 posts
299 upvotes
Burlington, ON
nutcrackergirl wrote:
Sep 9th, 2017 3:05 pm


i am under the understanding that these bracketed numbers are fluctuating each day, as in i am not losing each amount each day, culmulatively ...
You're under wrong impression. Number in brackets are UNrealized gain/losses - it's not "material" till you sell it. And it's not "losing each amount each day" - it's your "balance" on current day, once you decide completely liquidate ALL your holdings.

Moreover it do NOT include dividends/distributions, only price gains imo. In case of re-investing dividends this numbers become even more confusing as it do not track returns properly...

Until you're already on "spending" phase, bonds portion a bit high imo. Even with (quite) conservative "years in bonds" 60% is a bit of overkill if you have at least 5 years ahead to invest, imo. 40 (bonds) 60 (stocks) portfolio is very conservative but will have better returns. Buying XBB (long-term bonds) right now is not the best idea (as well as un-hedged world and US stocks on peak of USDCAD ratio), as it will have a SHORT term price drop (in bonds due to raising rate, in XAW due to USDCAD drop). However in few years horizon higher rates will mean higher distributions from bonds and as CAD is close to historic level to USD, XAW will be more "positive" from now
[OP]
Deal Addict
Oct 1, 2006
1635 posts
568 upvotes
Montreal
ancodia wrote:
Sep 12th, 2017 8:43 am
I thought the point of all this was to not to try and time the market. You need think like a machine and buy regularly regardless of what the market is doing, adjusting once or twice a year to keep your asset ratios in check.
Amen!
Deal Addict
Jul 15, 2009
1073 posts
261 upvotes
drey wrote:
Sep 11th, 2017 10:18 pm
Everyone with a CPP is seeing red these days, so you're not the only one.
I'm not seeing red. Anyone who started their CPP anytime before the beginning of 2017 is almost guaranteed to be in the black right now.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4076 posts
1187 upvotes
Even 25% split between xbb, xus, xic and xef is about +3.13% YTD according to morningstar
It was up to about 8% YTD before currency took some gains out, then tsx basically went flat for the year it seems.

Most analysis still bullish on profits and markets growing ,this bull may not be dead for a while yet.

I think the tsx will catch up as it always does.
Newbie
Feb 5, 2017
64 posts
30 upvotes
Our dollar is higher = buy more of foreign (US, Intl, etc.)
TSX is down compared to others = buy more of it

and respect your allocations through that

it's that simple, really.
Member
Jul 27, 2017
288 posts
63 upvotes
GTA
Germack wrote:
Jun 6th, 2014 4:19 pm
Hi RFD,

After reading several articles, forums, blogs and academic studies, I came to the conclusion that the best way to invest my money is in a low cost diversified portfolio.

I have been applying this investment strategy for the last 12 years and would like to share my progress with you. With this post I hope to inspire others who are thinking about following a similar approach.
@ Germack, first off the OP chart is impressive of what appears the CCP has been a huge success ... well done.

On the CCP from your OP, would appreciate if you are able to answer a couple of things on the account balance of your CCP, as follows ...

Would also appreciate any link detailing this if covered some place else?

From the starting point in 2007, what was the initial start amount?

Without DRIP's or portfolio gains how much was contributed or added to the portfolio of investments from day one till now to get to the current total portfolio value of approx $1.15 million?

From day one till that if there hadn't been any additional funds/contributions to the portfolio - what would the portfolio value be?

How many of the initial holdings are still in the portfolio today?

What were the total number of 'investment classes' such as stocks, bonds, mutfunds, EFT's, other when the portfolio was created and how many are there in it today?

Thanks
My crystal ball is broken
Member
User avatar
Oct 19, 2016
350 posts
118 upvotes
Toronto
Im curious to know Germacks actual percentage returns.

The net worth chart he posted does not reflect his true investment returns as he was adding capital to it monthly.
porticoman wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 10:20 am

From day one till that if there hadn't been any additional funds/contributions to the portfolio - what would the portfolio value be?
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
1011 posts
299 upvotes
Burlington, ON
mrtrump wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 12:28 pm
Im curious to know Germacks actual percentage returns.

The net worth chart he posted does not reflect his true investment returns as he was adding capital to it monthly.
does it make any difference? You can go to google/finance, portfolio123 etc tools and project any portfolio you want.

With Google finance you actually can "model" his actual portfolio e.g. starting 30k, adding e.g. 30k (10k tfsa, 20k rrsp) yearly to mimic HIS experience. It will even calculate dividends and even would track returns with them reinvested (but with quite a manual work).
But does it make any difference to YOU? it would be HIS experience in the PAST. CCP returns are well known, but we all know that the most dangerous enemy of investing and most unknown variable is in the mirror ;)
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Oct 19, 2016
350 posts
118 upvotes
Toronto
Yes it makes a difference because he shows a very nice chart showing his Net Worth increase of 4000% over the last 12 years.

However probably a big chunk of the NetWorth increase was from addition of new capital (monthly contributions).

Yes I know google finance and how to calculate gains... but when the market crashed during 2008-2009, do you really think he just continued contributing as usual... Google finance will not show how humans react during market extremes.
asa1973 wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 12:58 pm
does it make any difference? You can go to google/finance, portfolio123 etc tools and project any portfolio you want.

With Google finance you actually can "model" his actual portfolio e.g. starting 30k, adding e.g. 30k (10k tfsa, 20k rrsp) yearly to mimic HIS experience. It will even calculate dividends and even would track returns with them reinvested (but with quite a manual work).
But does it make any difference to YOU? it would be HIS experience in the PAST. CCP returns are well known, but we all know that the most dangerous enemy of investing and most unknown variable is in the mirror ;)
Last edited by mrtrump on Sep 13th, 2017 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Member
Jul 27, 2017
288 posts
63 upvotes
GTA
mrtrump wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 3:32 pm
Yes it makes a difference because he shows a very nice chart showing his Net Worth increase of 4000% over the last 12 years.

However probably a big chunk of the NetWorth increase was from addition of new capital (monthly contributions).
@ post #1712 where the OP posted mentions adding $50k/yr... resolved

Plus the fact in the OP it mentions 'net worth' which might suggest other not just his ETF portfolio 'net worth' to also include a partner/spouse/other, or other investments, such as REI/personal property (see post #1725) or maybe other investment strategies such as leverage/margin in non-registered account, that the $1.15 million is not simply the model CCP ETF portfolio alone?

I looked at each of the positions the OP mentioned, some have been around only a few years, others longer, some have made small increases, a couple have done really well, one ETF symbol VTI stock split 2:1 in June 2008

When it all comes to the bottom line it's $1.15 million, how the OP got there belongs to them & well done Germack, thanks for the thread.
My crystal ball is broken
[OP]
Deal Addict
Oct 1, 2006
1635 posts
568 upvotes
Montreal
Hi porticoman and mrtrump,

Thank you for posting in this thread. Here are the answers to your questions:

Question #1: From the starting point in 2007, what was the initial start amount?
Answer #1: The initial starting amount on 15MAY2005 was $15,312

Question #2: Without DRIP's or portfolio gains how much was contributed or added to the portfolio of investments from day one till now to get to the current total portfolio value of approx $1.15 million?
Answer #2: I only have exact numbers since 2010. Since 2010 I contributed $446,997 and my investment gains were $409,244. My contributions have been around 50k/year. See Table below for more information.
Contributions and Investment Gains.png

Question #3: From day one till that if there hadn't been any additional funds/contributions to the portfolio - what would the portfolio value be?
Answer #3: I do not know the exact number of this. Based on some numbers from Moneysense (http://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing ... rformance/) I would estimate the portfolio value would have increased by around 30% without any additional contributions

Question #4: How many of the initial holdings are still in the portfolio today?
Answer #4: I liquidated around 200k of my portfolio 2.5 years ago to have money for a downpayment on a house. Aside from this I have never sold any of my investments.

Question #5: What were the total number of 'investment classes' such as stocks, bonds, mutfunds, EFT's, other when the portfolio was created and how many are there in it today?
Answer #5: Total number of investment classes never changed. My money is invested in the following classes: bonds, canadian equity, US equities, international equities, emerging markets and real estate.

Question #6: I am curious to know Germacks actual percentage returns.
Answer #6: I do not have exact numbers for the whole time period. From 10JAN2011 - 12SEP2017 my annualized return has been 9.2% per year, according to TD Waterhouse.

Statement #1: However probably a big chunk of the NetWorth increase was from addition of new capital (monthly contributions).
Answer S#1: Yes, this is correct. See Answer #2 for more information.

Statement #2: ,but when the market crashed during 2008-2009, do you really think he just continued contributing as usual?
Answer S#2: Yes, I did continue contributing as usual. It was tough, but I did it.

Statement #3: Plus the fact in the OP it mentions 'net worth' which might suggest other not just his ETF portfolio 'net worth' to also include a partner/spouse/other, or other investments, such as REI/personal property (see post #1725) or maybe other investment strategies such as leverage/margin in non-registered account, that the $1.15 million is not simply the model CCP ETF portfolio alone?
Answer S#3: This is my networth only. Family networth is around 1.8 million. I do own a single family house. It is valued in my networth using its purchase price. The $1.15 million is from saving around 50k per year and investing the savings in a CCP portfolio. No leverage.
Last edited by Germack on Sep 13th, 2017 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jun 7, 2005
1277 posts
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How did you manage over 100k of savings in 2012 and 2016?? Smiling Face With Sunglasses
[OP]
Deal Addict
Oct 1, 2006
1635 posts
568 upvotes
Montreal
blahraptors wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 10:04 pm
How did you manage over 100k of savings in 2012 and 2016?? Smiling Face With Sunglasses
Stock options from my employer that vest every 4 years.

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