Real Estate

Did we just hit the bottom of the Toronto RE correction?

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 22nd, 2017 1:43 pm
Deal Addict
Dec 6, 2006
3708 posts
679 upvotes
Toronto
rjg4235 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:00 pm
Here is last few years July so we can see just how "high" 2017 is;

2012: 20,318
2013: 20,514
2014: 19,549
2015: 16,673
2016: 11,346 - Comparing to an outlier will make the normal look bad
2017: 18,751

All the archives are here;
http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/
So.. what're you saying ? The bears were actually correct that the RE market crashed every year since 2012, except 2016, right? yeah?
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4339 posts
1619 upvotes
Thornhill
Here's a little anecdote:

It's so slow this month that it's the first time I've seen a house #8 4 beds, 4 baths, big lot on a quiet Markham crescent, very well priced with a whole bunch of 8s in the last 5 places, not get scooped up and it's into week 3.

Seriously though, sales are way down everywhere it wouldn't surprise me in the least if August clocks in as the worst August this decade and with average prices down year over year.
Last edited by licenced on Aug 10th, 2017 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
licenced wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:13 pm
Here's a little anecdote:

It's so slow this month that it's the first time I've seen a house #8 4 beds, 4 baths, big lot on a quiet Markham crescent, very well priced with a whole bunch of 8s in the last 5 places, not get scooped up and it's into week 3.

Seriously though, sales are way down everywhere it wouldn't surprise me in the least if July clocks in as the worst July this decade and with average prices down year over year.
I'm assuming you mean August, July numbers are in and are up YoY
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
4339 posts
1619 upvotes
Thornhill
rjg4235 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:24 pm
I'm assuming you mean August, July numbers are in and are up YoY
Sorry yes.

edited to correct.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
licenced wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:13 pm
Here's a little anecdote:

It's so slow this month that it's the first time I've seen a house #8 4 beds, 4 baths, big lot on a quiet Markham crescent, very well priced with a whole bunch of 8s in the last 5 places, not get scooped up and it's into week 3.

Seriously though, sales are way down everywhere it wouldn't surprise me in the least if August clocks in as the worst August this decade and with average prices down year over year.
I highly doubt it, Zolo has it up 7.1%, there numbers have been spot in give or take 2%.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4539 posts
2378 upvotes
Yup, market has literally ground to a halt. But Sep will be huge!!!! ;)
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:29 pm
Yup, market has literally ground to a halt. But Sep will be huge!!!! ;)
Halt is definitely an exaggeration, no one is denying sales are down a lot. Not really surprising either considering average house is $1.3m and people are spooked because of new regulations. I don't know what will happen in September but I am guessing the market will stabilize. Not April madness and not this summer lull.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4539 posts
2378 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:34 pm
Halt is definitely an exaggeration, no one is denying sales are down a lot. Not really surprising either considering average house is $1.3m and people are spooked because of new regulations. I don't know what will happen in September but I am guessing the market will stabilize. Not April madness and not this summer lull.
I expect sales will pick up in Sep, based on seasonal trends. But so might new listings and there's still a ton of inventory. I think the purge will tak e more time.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:44 pm
I expect sales will pick up in Sep, based on seasonal trends. But so might new listings and there's still a ton of inventory. I think the purge will tak e more time.
There is absolutely not a 'ton' of inventory. This is a massive city and current inventory is less than normal. Only last couple years have been insanely low, which contributed to price growth;

2012: 20,318
2013: 20,514
2014: 19,549
2015: 16,673
2016: 11,346 - Comparing to an outlier will make the normal look bad
2017: 18,751
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4539 posts
2378 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 4:08 pm
There is absolutely not a 'ton' of inventory. This is a massive city and current inventory is less than normal. Only last couple years have been insanely low, which contributed to price growth;

2012: 20,318
2013: 20,514
2014: 19,549
2015: 16,673
2016: 11,346 - Comparing to an outlier will make the normal look bad
2017: 18,751
I agree it's relative. So at inventory From 2014 maybe we should be at prices from 2014. Since 2015 and 2016 were outlier years and perhaps stimulated a short lived spike. Maybe right ?
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 4:11 pm
I agree it's relative. So at inventory From 2014 maybe we should be at prices from 2014. Since 2015 and 2016 were outlier years and perhaps stimulated a short lived spike. Maybe right ?
Maybe. I don't think prices are completely dictated by inventory though. There are a ton of factors that haven't changed.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4539 posts
2378 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 4:13 pm
Maybe. I don't think prices are completely dictated by inventory though. There are a ton of factors that haven't changed.
No but they are dictated by supply vs demand. So Something has to change either on the supply side, or the demand side. If it's the demand side, I'm interested in your opinion on what has changed from 2014 to now.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4239 posts
1376 upvotes
sorrowt wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 3:11 pm
it says 53% here: http://realestatetaxtips.ca/calculate-t ... roperties/
For half the gain @ your marginal tax rate. Or the full gain between 10-27% as tax tips displays it, again based on your marginal tax rate. (same result, different way of calculating)

I don't know how @rjg4235 says capital gains is 15% unless he knows the marginal tax rate of that poster or I am unaware of special tax that RE receives.

http://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/on.htm
[OP]
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1675 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote:
Aug 10th, 2017 4:22 pm
No but they are dictated by supply vs demand. So Something has to change either on the supply side, or the demand side. If it's the demand side, I'm interested in your opinion on what has changed from 2014 to now.
Well it's pretty obvious the government intervention caused a dramatic decline in sales. Whether or not it's going to be ongoing or temporary remains to be seen.

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