Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Oct 22nd, 2017 12:21 pm
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[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4540 posts
2378 upvotes

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

Updated

Data Source: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... /index.htm

Edit: Updating to track averages

Average detached price in Toronto:


2015
Mid May: $1.141
End May: $1.115
Mid June: $1.070
End June: $1.051
Mid July: $0.999
End July: $0.996
Aug: $1.017
Sep: $1.053
Oct: $1.071
Nov: $1.018
Dec: $1.039

2016
Jan: $1.061
Feb: $1.211
Mar: $1.174
Apr: $1.257
May: $1.285
Jun: $1.259
Jul: $1.202
Aug: $1.206
Sep: $1.294
Oct: $1.303
Nov: $1.345
Dec: $1.286

2017
Jan: $1.336
Feb: $1.573
Mar: $1.561
Apr: $1.578<<< Peak
May: $1.503
Jun: $1.386
Jul: $1.304
Aug: $1.191
Sep: $1.355
Last edited by fdl on May 20th, 2015 10:13 am, edited 22 times in total.
8890 replies
Deal Fanatic
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Apr 20, 2011
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Well, how many people do you know that would want to raise 2 kids in a condo?
Deal Addict
Apr 19, 2014
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fdl wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:13 am
Spring market in full swing. Mid month numbers are out. Toronto detached up 18.4% yoy to $1,141,000. Yikes.

This could possibly be the point in time we look back on as the peak of the bubble. You heard it here first :)

Source: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/m ... h_0515.htm
What makes you believe that we're nearing the peak? (other than the fact that bubbles accelerate near the top?)
Deal Addict
May 4, 2014
2406 posts
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Toronto, ON
popbottle wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:18 am
Well, how many people do you know that would want to raise 2 kids in a condo?
What's wrong with raising 2 kids in a condo? There must be no kids to be seen in cities like Hong Kong and Manhattan if that's the case...
Member
Sep 9, 2012
343 posts
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TORONTO
Yes. We have now hit the peak. Congrats on perfectly calling it.
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Apr 20, 2011
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er34er34 wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:21 am
What's wrong with raising 2 kids in a condo? There must be no kids to be seen in cities like Hong Kong and Manhattan if that's the case...
Exactly, but if come out in another thread and say that parents can easily afford housing for 2 kids in a condo they'll complain insinuate that people are entitled to a single family home at a below market price
Deal Addict
Jan 6, 2015
2860 posts
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Toronto, ON
fdl wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:13 am
Spring market in full swing. Mid month numbers are out. Toronto detached up 18.4% yoy to $1,141,000. Yikes.

This could possibly be the point in time we look back on as the peak of the bubble. You heard it here first :)

Source: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/m ... h_0515.htm
It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
Deal Addict
Apr 19, 2014
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foodyforlife wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:46 am
It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
...said everyone before every other real estate bubble bust in history
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Apr 20, 2011
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foodyforlife wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:46 am
It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
Yes! Toronto is almost the same as Vancouver, since there is a large green area around it restricting further development. 7
Penalty Box
May 1, 2012
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Markham
arkroyal wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:48 am
...said everyone before every other real estate bubble bust in history
He isn't technically wrong. Longterm, RE is up, up, and up. This is where some thought is disconnected.

Some people look at RE as segments in history. There are ups and downs. Which is correct.
Some people look at RE as a longterm home. There are ups and downs, but overall it is quite up throughout history. Which is also correct.


The market is insane right now. I concede that this is actually kinda scary. But seriously, the only things that can deflate this "bubble" are high unemployment or skyrocketing interest rates... or perhaps catastrophes.
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Aug 3, 2009
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What's the attraction? Are salaries generally better in Toronto?
I am happy to answer questions about my experience with Fido and Tangerine.
[OP]
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Dec 5, 2009
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arkroyal wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:21 am
What makes you believe that we're nearing the peak? (other than the fact that bubbles accelerate near the top?)
I think it's a combination of already being at very bubbly level, then seeing such a huge acceleration in prices. Coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we'll likely see in a lifetime. The recipe is all there.
Deal Addict
May 28, 2006
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foodyforlife wrote:
May 20th, 2015 10:46 am
It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
I own multiple houses and it gives me a chuckle every time I hear people say houses will always go up can't go down. Step outside. Everywhere but Toronto and Vancouver houses are going down.
Jr. Member
Dec 25, 2013
104 posts
27 upvotes
Vaughan
My crystal ball confirms the OP. It was a great find for $2 at a yard sale, that's for sure.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4540 posts
2378 upvotes
Noelnoel wrote:
May 20th, 2015 11:05 am
My crystal ball confirms the OP. It was a great find for $2 at a yard sale, that's for sure.
You're right it's pure speculation on my part. I don't deny that.

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