Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Feb 3rd, 2023 4:08 pm
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Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

Updated

Data Source: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... /index.htm

Edit: Updating to track averages

Average detached price in Toronto:


2015
Mid May: $1.141
End May: $1.115
Mid June: $1.070
End June: $1.051
Mid July: $0.999
End July: $0.996
Aug: $1.017
Sep: $1.053
Oct: $1.071
Nov: $1.018
Dec: $1.039

2016
Jan: $1.061
Feb: $1.211
Mar: $1.174
Apr: $1.257
May: $1.285
Jun: $1.259
Jul: $1.202
Aug: $1.206
Sep: $1.294
Oct: $1.303
Nov: $1.345
Dec: $1.286

2017
Jan: $1.336
Feb: $1.573
Mar: $1.561
Apr: $1.578<<< Peak
May: $1.503
Jun: $1.386
Jul: $1.304
Aug: $1.191
Sep: $1.355
Oct: $1.287
Nov: $1.276
Dec: $1.250

2018
Jan: $1.283
Feb: $1.282
Last edited by fdl on May 20th, 2015 10:13 am, edited 27 times in total.
11744 replies
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Apr 20, 2011
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Vancouver
Well, how many people do you know that would want to raise 2 kids in a condo?
Deal Addict
Apr 19, 2014
1042 posts
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fdl wrote: Spring market in full swing. Mid month numbers are out. Toronto detached up 18.4% yoy to $1,141,000. Yikes.

This could possibly be the point in time we look back on as the peak of the bubble. You heard it here first :)

Source: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/m ... h_0515.htm
What makes you believe that we're nearing the peak? (other than the fact that bubbles accelerate near the top?)
Deal Fanatic
May 4, 2014
5217 posts
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Toronto, ON
popbottle wrote: Well, how many people do you know that would want to raise 2 kids in a condo?
What's wrong with raising 2 kids in a condo? There must be no kids to be seen in cities like Hong Kong and Manhattan if that's the case...
Member
Sep 9, 2012
372 posts
120 upvotes
TORONTO
Yes. We have now hit the peak. Congrats on perfectly calling it.
Deal Fanatic
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Apr 20, 2011
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er34er34 wrote: What's wrong with raising 2 kids in a condo? There must be no kids to be seen in cities like Hong Kong and Manhattan if that's the case...
Exactly, but if come out in another thread and say that parents can easily afford housing for 2 kids in a condo they'll complain insinuate that people are entitled to a single family home at a below market price
Deal Addict
Jan 6, 2015
2860 posts
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Toronto, ON
fdl wrote: Spring market in full swing. Mid month numbers are out. Toronto detached up 18.4% yoy to $1,141,000. Yikes.

This could possibly be the point in time we look back on as the peak of the bubble. You heard it here first :)

Source: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/m ... h_0515.htm
It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
Deal Addict
Apr 19, 2014
1042 posts
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foodyforlife wrote: It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
...said everyone before every other real estate bubble bust in history
Deal Fanatic
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Apr 20, 2011
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foodyforlife wrote: It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
Yes! Toronto is almost the same as Vancouver, since there is a large green area around it restricting further development. 7
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
arkroyal wrote: ...said everyone before every other real estate bubble bust in history
He isn't technically wrong. Longterm, RE is up, up, and up. This is where some thought is disconnected.

Some people look at RE as segments in history. There are ups and downs. Which is correct.
Some people look at RE as a longterm home. There are ups and downs, but overall it is quite up throughout history. Which is also correct.


The market is insane right now. I concede that this is actually kinda scary. But seriously, the only things that can deflate this "bubble" are high unemployment or skyrocketing interest rates... or perhaps catastrophes.
Deal Addict
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Aug 3, 2009
2294 posts
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Nova Scotia
What's the attraction? Are salaries generally better in Toronto?
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
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arkroyal wrote: What makes you believe that we're nearing the peak? (other than the fact that bubbles accelerate near the top?)
I think it's a combination of already being at very bubbly level, then seeing such a huge acceleration in prices. Coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we'll likely see in a lifetime. The recipe is all there.
Deal Addict
May 28, 2006
2389 posts
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foodyforlife wrote: It's never going to peak. It might "plateau" , but it will only go up. If mortgage rates go up, might see a few people selling because they can't afford it, but vast majority will sit tight and won't sell their house for a loss.

Only gonna go up and up and up. Albeit maybe slowly.
I own multiple houses and it gives me a chuckle every time I hear people say houses will always go up can't go down. Step outside. Everywhere but Toronto and Vancouver houses are going down.
Jr. Member
Dec 25, 2013
104 posts
27 upvotes
Vaughan
My crystal ball confirms the OP. It was a great find for $2 at a yard sale, that's for sure.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
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Noelnoel wrote: My crystal ball confirms the OP. It was a great find for $2 at a yard sale, that's for sure.
You're right it's pure speculation on my part. I don't deny that.
Sr. Member
Feb 8, 2015
656 posts
734 upvotes
Kanata
fdl wrote: I think it's a combination of already being at very bubbly level, then seeing such a huge acceleration in prices. Coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we'll likely see in a lifetime. The recipe is all there.
Your reasoning of price of X is nearing the peak because it is already too high and it is curving up even more.

That is equivalent of TA in day trading. If you think you are correct in your reasoning, I would advise you to seriously consider day trading as you can potentially make millions.
Deal Expert
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Aug 2, 2010
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Here 'n There
fdl wrote: I think it's a combination of already being at very bubbly level, then seeing such a huge acceleration in prices. Coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we'll likely see in a lifetime. The recipe is all there.
Yes. All you need to do is have lived through the last few times this has happened as I have. I have made money every time doing the opposite of what the herd mentality is doing right now.
Deal Expert
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Aug 2, 2010
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Here 'n There
garmium wrote: Your reasoning of price of X is nearing the peak because it is already too high and it is curving up even more.

That is equivalent of TA in day trading. If you think you are correct in your reasoning, I would advise you to seriously consider day trading as you can potentially make millions.
Actually his reply is much more sophisticated that the snippet that you are focusing on.
Deal Fanatic
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Apr 20, 2011
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fdl wrote: I think it's a combination of already being at very bubbly level, then seeing such a huge acceleration in prices. Coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we'll likely see in a lifetime. The recipe is all there.
So you think that Ontario will repeal the greenbelt soon? Also where does it say(from a Canadian Government Agency or Department) that interest has to rise? In any case 10 year locked mortgages are available at a decent rate(3.7%) from many banks.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Apr 20, 2011
5310 posts
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Vancouver
garmium wrote: Your reasoning of price of X is nearing the peak because it is already too high and it is curving up even more.

That is equivalent of TA in day trading. If you think you are correct in your reasoning, I would advise you to seriously consider day trading as you can potentially make millions.
Never underestimate the power of a person married to a spouse that dislikes moving every few years!

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