Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Feb 3rd, 2023 4:08 pm
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Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
4050 upvotes
Toronto
The thing that I don't get is it's spring now. Of course listings are up. This is house listing prime time
Deal Addict
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Jun 28, 2007
3866 posts
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CollegeGraduate wrote: Just wondering, what happened to Home Capital Group? The stock tanked. Does it have anything to do with aggressive loans?
...yeah yeah, the company failed to disclose "flaws" in its mortgage business to regulators (essentially there was fraud in its mortgage broker network) - that news (even though it was disclosed back in 2015) has continued to cause a run on its deposits as people "pulled out their money" from the company and so now its suffering from a major liquidity shock in that they need these deposits to fund their lending. This essentially similar to what happened with Lehman and the subprime mortgage fiasco south of the border - a crisis of confidence.

Funny that some people continue point to HCG as the "smoking gun" for what will pop the Canadian housing market bubble, but let's remember they represent a very tiny slice of the lending market in Canada (which is heavily dominated by the big banks who are very well capitalized). In other words, Canada is not the US and I highly doubt this will have any impact on the broader market (except to perhaps cause a few potential buyers to think twice and worry that this may be the beginning of the end...)
Deal Expert
User avatar
Oct 19, 2003
20241 posts
8367 upvotes
Toronto (Bloor West …
daivey wrote: The thing that I don't get is it's spring now. Of course listings are up. This is house listing prime time
I would say there are probably less than usual listings around here for this time of year.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes
daivey wrote: The thing that I don't get is it's spring now. Of course listings are up. This is house listing prime time
You're right. However, the up tick in listings is more than usual. This may not be true for all neighbourhoods.



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Member
Apr 27, 2014
390 posts
135 upvotes
Mississauga, ON
fdl wrote: You're right. However, the up tick in listings is more than usual. This may not be true for all neighbourhoods.



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Was 2016 spring not considered historically low in terms of number of listings?
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
gomyone wrote: ...yeah yeah, the company failed to disclose "flaws" in its mortgage business to regulators (essentially there was fraud in its mortgage broker network) - that news (even though it was disclosed back in 2015) has continued to cause a run on its deposits as people "pulled out their money" from the company and so now its suffering from a major liquidity shock in that they need these deposits to fund their lending. This essentially similar to what happened with Lehman and the subprime mortgage fiasco south of the border - a crisis of confidence.

Funny that some people continue point to HCG as the "smoking gun" for what will pop the Canadian housing market bubble, but let's remember they represent a very tiny slice of the lending market in Canada (which is heavily dominated by the big banks who are very well capitalized). In other words, Canada is not the US and I highly doubt this will have any impact on the broader market (except to perhaps cause a few potential buyers to think twice and worry that this may be the beginning of the end...)
A guy I work with is convinced this is the end of the Canadian RE market... because HCG has a liquidity problem... not a mortgage default problem. But this guy isn't that bright. He now wants to sell and rent. I am totally encouraging this.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
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expatflame wrote: Was 2016 spring not considered historically low in terms of number of listings?
I don't know what "historical" refers to in this crazy market, but in 2016 Q1 listings were down relative to Q1 2015. Is 2015 the benchmark? Does it mean we're in between 2015 crazy and 2016 crazy, but not at 2017 crazy any more? Who knows. Really want to see the April data.
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote: I don't know what "historical" refers to in this crazy market, but in 2016 Q1 listings were down relative to Q1 2015. Is 2015 the benchmark? Does it mean we're in between 2015 crazy and 2016 crazy, but not at 2017 crazy any more? Who knows. Really want to see the April data.
lol this uptick in listing is a good thing. Hopefully this will quench some of the demand build up.

But then you got a new problem... all these guys who sold now have bling bling sitting in their account waiting to pounce.
Member
May 5, 2013
311 posts
98 upvotes
Any success story to share in here about shorting your own pr?
Deal Addict
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Jan 5, 2003
3799 posts
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fdl wrote: You're right. However, the up tick in listings is more than usual. This may not be true for all neighbourhoods.



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The person who published those graphs said "While the surge in new listings is welcome news for home buyers, I don't expect this trend to continue for too long."

Also on the same site you can see 'active listings', 'months of inventory' and 'dom' all which are still well below the recent norm.
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is still there... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes
Flavour wrote: The person who published those graphs said "While the surge in new listings is welcome news for home buyers, I don't expect this trend to continue for too long."

Also on the same site you can see 'active listings', 'months of inventory' and 'dom' all which are still well below the recent norm.
Would you mind posting charts for active listings 2017 vs 2016? I've not seen that.
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
Wow... Milton just saw the most sales the last two days then I've seen since March.

Big activity lots of inventory bought up over 25 homes. So it seems like the buyers are coming back.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes
Sanyo wrote: Wow... Milton just saw the most sales the last two days then I've seen since March.

Big activity lots of inventory bought up over 25 homes. So it seems like the buyers are coming back.
Can we get a check on shoe counts to confirm ?
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
fdl wrote: Can we get a check on shoe counts to confirm ?
that would be at least 25 pairs moving into different homes... if not 50, 75, 100, 200, 500 or more.
Newbie
Dec 1, 2008
95 posts
18 upvotes
Sanyo wrote: Wow... Milton just saw the most sales the last two days then I've seen since March.

Big activity lots of inventory bought up over 25 homes. So it seems like the buyers are coming back.
What is the price trend?
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
spdewan wrote: What is the price trend?
Looks strong. Since prices being adjusted up to more reasonable levels your not seeing the killer overbids but some homes did have some crazy overbids still (1.15 mil to 1.4, 750k to 971k, etc).

But most were pretty solid over asking. Some under but the properties were more fairly valued.

To me it looks strong but we'll see when sales are released early next month
Newbie
Dec 1, 2008
95 posts
18 upvotes
Sanyo wrote: Looks strong. Since prices being adjusted up to more reasonable levels your not seeing the killer overbids but some homes did have some crazy overbids still (1.15 mil to 1.4, 750k to 971k, etc).

But most were pretty solid over asking. Some under but the properties were more fairly valued.

To me it looks strong but we'll see when sales are released early next month
lots of people significantly under list their house so "over asking" don't mean much. If sales are picking up market will stabilize else downward trend would continue.

look at this house W3757057
and this W3748318

sold two weeks apart
Last edited by spdewan on Apr 27th, 2017 9:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Apr 24, 2006
4332 posts
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Anyone know what's up with the town houses activity? The ones i was looking at (about 6 different ones) in Markham either were terminated, or re-listed at a much higher price (100-200k) after the offer date has passed, and none of them were sold. Some of the reasons the agent was able to find it out was because it didn't sell as high as the seller expected it to be (mind you even though the offer is still above listing price).

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