The thing that I don't get is it's spring now. Of course listings are up. This is house listing prime time
Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?
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- daivey
- Penalty Box
- Dec 27, 2013
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- gomyone
- Deal Addict
- Jun 28, 2007
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...yeah yeah, the company failed to disclose "flaws" in its mortgage business to regulators (essentially there was fraud in its mortgage broker network) - that news (even though it was disclosed back in 2015) has continued to cause a run on its deposits as people "pulled out their money" from the company and so now its suffering from a major liquidity shock in that they need these deposits to fund their lending. This essentially similar to what happened with Lehman and the subprime mortgage fiasco south of the border - a crisis of confidence.CollegeGraduate wrote: ↑ Just wondering, what happened to Home Capital Group? The stock tanked. Does it have anything to do with aggressive loans?
Funny that some people continue point to HCG as the "smoking gun" for what will pop the Canadian housing market bubble, but let's remember they represent a very tiny slice of the lending market in Canada (which is heavily dominated by the big banks who are very well capitalized). In other words, Canada is not the US and I highly doubt this will have any impact on the broader market (except to perhaps cause a few potential buyers to think twice and worry that this may be the beginning of the end...)
- BinaryJay
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- Toronto (Bloor West …
- fdl [OP]
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- expatflame
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- Anikiri
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A guy I work with is convinced this is the end of the Canadian RE market... because HCG has a liquidity problem... not a mortgage default problem. But this guy isn't that bright. He now wants to sell and rent. I am totally encouraging this.gomyone wrote: ↑ ...yeah yeah, the company failed to disclose "flaws" in its mortgage business to regulators (essentially there was fraud in its mortgage broker network) - that news (even though it was disclosed back in 2015) has continued to cause a run on its deposits as people "pulled out their money" from the company and so now its suffering from a major liquidity shock in that they need these deposits to fund their lending. This essentially similar to what happened with Lehman and the subprime mortgage fiasco south of the border - a crisis of confidence.
Funny that some people continue point to HCG as the "smoking gun" for what will pop the Canadian housing market bubble, but let's remember they represent a very tiny slice of the lending market in Canada (which is heavily dominated by the big banks who are very well capitalized). In other words, Canada is not the US and I highly doubt this will have any impact on the broader market (except to perhaps cause a few potential buyers to think twice and worry that this may be the beginning of the end...)
- fdl [OP]
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I don't know what "historical" refers to in this crazy market, but in 2016 Q1 listings were down relative to Q1 2015. Is 2015 the benchmark? Does it mean we're in between 2015 crazy and 2016 crazy, but not at 2017 crazy any more? Who knows. Really want to see the April data.expatflame wrote: ↑ Was 2016 spring not considered historically low in terms of number of listings?
- Anikiri
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lol this uptick in listing is a good thing. Hopefully this will quench some of the demand build up.
But then you got a new problem... all these guys who sold now have bling bling sitting in their account waiting to pounce.
- manne3702
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Any success story to share in here about shorting your own pr?
- Flavour
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- Jan 5, 2003
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The person who published those graphs said "While the surge in new listings is welcome news for home buyers, I don't expect this trend to continue for too long."
Also on the same site you can see 'active listings', 'months of inventory' and 'dom' all which are still well below the recent norm.
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is still there... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
- fdl [OP]
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Would you mind posting charts for active listings 2017 vs 2016? I've not seen that.Flavour wrote: ↑ The person who published those graphs said "While the surge in new listings is welcome news for home buyers, I don't expect this trend to continue for too long."
Also on the same site you can see 'active listings', 'months of inventory' and 'dom' all which are still well below the recent norm.
- Flavour
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- Jan 5, 2003
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last 3 years:
http://www.movesmartly.com/toronto-real ... stics.html
http://www.movesmartly.com/toronto-real ... stics.html
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is still there... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
- Sanyo
- Deal Guru
- Feb 9, 2009
- 12381 posts
- 11307 upvotes
Wow... Milton just saw the most sales the last two days then I've seen since March.
Big activity lots of inventory bought up over 25 homes. So it seems like the buyers are coming back.
Big activity lots of inventory bought up over 25 homes. So it seems like the buyers are coming back.
- fdl [OP]
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- Dec 5, 2009
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Thanks. Unfortunately no data since early March. I wonder if active listings has caught or exceeded 2016 by end of April.
- fdl [OP]
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- Sanyo
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- spdewan
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- Dec 1, 2008
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- Sanyo
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Looks strong. Since prices being adjusted up to more reasonable levels your not seeing the killer overbids but some homes did have some crazy overbids still (1.15 mil to 1.4, 750k to 971k, etc).
But most were pretty solid over asking. Some under but the properties were more fairly valued.
To me it looks strong but we'll see when sales are released early next month
- spdewan
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- Dec 1, 2008
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lots of people significantly under list their house so "over asking" don't mean much. If sales are picking up market will stabilize else downward trend would continue.Sanyo wrote: ↑ Looks strong. Since prices being adjusted up to more reasonable levels your not seeing the killer overbids but some homes did have some crazy overbids still (1.15 mil to 1.4, 750k to 971k, etc).
But most were pretty solid over asking. Some under but the properties were more fairly valued.
To me it looks strong but we'll see when sales are released early next month
look at this house W3757057
and this W3748318
sold two weeks apart
Last edited by spdewan on Apr 27th, 2017 9:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- White Comet
- Deal Addict
- Apr 24, 2006
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Anyone know what's up with the town houses activity? The ones i was looking at (about 6 different ones) in Markham either were terminated, or re-listed at a much higher price (100-200k) after the offer date has passed, and none of them were sold. Some of the reasons the agent was able to find it out was because it didn't sell as high as the seller expected it to be (mind you even though the offer is still above listing price).
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