Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Feb 12th, 2019 3:03 pm
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Sr. Member
Feb 13, 2017
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at1212b wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 1:49 pm
House in my area in East scarbs lowered their list from $799,000 to $688,000 after being listed for about 2 weeks.

It's definitely peaked around there.
A house for $688k in east scarbz....not the most appealing location...and im gonna assume its a dump at that price.

Guy on my parents street in Burlington just sold his house for $1.4M 2 days ago after listing it for $1.15M. Was on the market for 4 days.
Last edited by crocp8 on Apr 20th, 2017 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mar 31, 2008
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crocp8 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 1:52 pm
A house for $688k in east scarbz....not the most appealing location...and im gonna assume its a dump at that price.

Guy on my street in Burlington just sold his house for $1.4M 2 days ago after listing it for $1.15M. Was on the market for 4 days.
'Dumps' in Scarborough were flying off the shelves at 800K + up until recently. This one is actually in good condition. Certain pockets still hot but no longer ALL pockets.
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Feb 9, 2009
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Woodbridge905 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 12:49 pm
They might, but paying an extra $150K to 200K on a million+ home is not a very smart investment strategy. Assuming these Chinese buyers are in it for investment and not to live in the house.
many of them put their kids in school, parents through healthcare... for them it's worth it....and many cities already have a foreign buyer tax so it's either here or there...
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Jun 2, 2012
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at1212b wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 1:49 pm
House in my area in East scarbs lowered their list from $799,000 to $688,000 after being listed for about 2 weeks.

It's definitely peaked around there.
I guess different places in Scarborough... as it's a huge place..

Bungalows near me

List Price: $699,000
Sold Price: $0.83M - March

List Price: $699,000
Sold Price: $0.85M - April

List Price: $729,000
Sold Price: $0.87M - April

List Price: $729,900
Sold Price: $1.06M - April <- This was renovated... not 100k worth compared to the others but still

List Price: $799,900 <- Renovated/Across from a school
Contract Date: 4/20/2017

List Price: $998,888
Contract Date: 4/19/2017

All these homes give or take identical sqft wise/lot

I hate these damn low listings to draw in people that couldn't afford it anyways.. it waste everyone's time.. just to say we have 9 bidders as opposed only two people that ever had a chance to get the house..
A house is going to sell for what the market says, nothing else...
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GSpeed wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 2:25 pm
I guess different places in Scarborough... as it's a huge place..

Bungalows near me

List Price: $699,000
Sold Price: $0.83M - March

List Price: $699,000
Sold Price: $0.85M - April

List Price: $729,000
Sold Price: $0.87M - April

List Price: $729,900
Sold Price: $1.06M - April <- This was renovated... not 100k worth compared to the others but still

List Price: $799,900 <- Renovated/Across from a school
Contract Date: 4/20/2017

List Price: $998,888
Contract Date: 4/19/2017

All these homes give or take identical sqft wise/lot

I hate these damn low listings to draw in people that couldn't afford it anyways.. it waste everyone's time.. just to say we have 9 bidders as opposed only two people that ever had a chance to get the house..
A house is going to sell for what the market says, nothing else...
I'm not saying it's going down everywhere, but I was seeing alot of 900K sold bungalows in March. Alot less now. More in the 800s. There were 2 that went for over a million near Marcos Blvd in March. A more recent one renovated sold for 970K. I bet that seller thought they'd easily get over $1mil.

The ones I'm referring to have been now sitting for almost 3 weeks. One of them didn't even get 1 bid on the first offer night. Another one, me and this other who saw it said outside, it'll definitely go over 900K (4 bedroom, walk out basement). Sat for a couple of weeks. I knew they were holding out. It went for 890K. Now I'm not saying it's a big crash but the days of list, and final sales price notably beats recent comparable is less and less in some pockets. A few weeks of watch, and seeing it go down or stay flat, at these price levels, I think people will wait longer. Maybe it's a blip, and its' just this region of the city. But maybe it could be the canary in the coal mine. Either way, it's definitely peaked in April to slightly decline from March. Makes sense given the much higher listings.
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Oct 22, 2014
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Absolutely! Within my block, there is 1 or 2 out of 10 listings that are listed around the expected selling price. All other listings are listed way below, like 2015 prices. Makes me sick to my stomach - how do real estate agents live with themselves.
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Sanyo wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 12:24 pm
Did a little damage but not much -- the high end market got affected down roughly 8%. Condo and mid market is still strong and going up.

But the high end was to be expected since shacks were starting to sell for $2 mil or more (obviously for the land to tear down but expensive).

I sense the same thing in Toronto. Small dip maybe in the 2 mil or more range (as some of the money launders will disappear with the need to declare residency, etc). I dont think the market below it will be affected much. Probably wont see the multiple bid for $300k over as much anymore as those days are likely over but I dont sense a huge breakdown of price either... a stable and balanced market is the best scenario for everyone.
Spinner wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 12:34 pm
Buyers and sellers put everything on hold. The number of transactions went down and inventory increased. Prices held or dipped slightly (5-10%) from their peak. Most of the transactions were redirected to Toronto or Seattle. Vancouver is on its way to recovery this spring. But Vancouver is the #1 choice for rich Chinese headed for Canada.

Toronto has much more industry and jobs, but it's obvious the recent real estate boom is due to foreign demand. The blue collar workers are not the ones pushing prices up by double digits. It's the Chinese buyers that are purchasing multiple properties that's driving up prices.

I would say Toronto's FBT will push the demand back to Vancouver. It's less likely they will push to Montreal or Ottawa as those are considered Tier 2 cities for Chinese. Investors are all about be able to sell to the next buyer. Montreal and Ottawa don't have the same international recognition.
Thanks. So prices dipped a bit after the tax was introduced but as of today have they rebounded? Or still down a bit? Or maybe even slightly higher then it was before?
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Anyways, I just recently bought a house. Not in GTA but the KW area, fairly inexpensive. I'm just hoping prices don't decrease too badly in case I need to sell within the next 5 years (you never know what could happen that'll make you need to move).

But in general, I do hope these new measures help the market because these 30% price increases are just crazy. I'm hoping long term that prices will continue to increase but at a more "normal" rate such as rate of inflation or a bit higher. Not 10%+. And in the short term I'm just hoping we don't see a "crash"...a small "correction" (like 5-10% decrease) or flat prices would be fine.
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Eaglesfan99 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 3:25 pm
Anyone know if there is a vacancy tax??
Every city will be allowed to apply it as they see fit.
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Feb 13, 2017
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Eaglesfan99 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 3:25 pm
Anyone know if there is a vacancy tax??
Not yet. They still need to "study" it before making any moves. But its in the pipeline.
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Jan 30, 2017
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crocp8 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 3:26 pm
Not yet. They still need to "study" it before making any moves. But its in the pipeline.
But I read in national post it's part of the 16 points

See pic attached first line
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Sr. Member
Feb 13, 2017
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Eaglesfan99 wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 4:43 pm
But I read in national post it's part of the 16 points

See pic attached first line
It has to be applied by the individual city, not the province. So far, no word on when GTA cities when and if will apply it.
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crystallight wrote:
Apr 20th, 2017 3:14 pm
Thanks. So prices dipped a bit after the tax was introduced but as of today have they rebounded? Or still down a bit? Or maybe even slightly higher then it was before?
The net effect for Vancouver is still TBD. Most of the affordable stuff under $800k has probably rebounded or is on the way to back to normal. However, I don't think the majority of the $1M+ listings are back to pre-August 2016 prices.

Overall, I think the Ontario's FBT will have a greater impact than BC's version.

1. GTA doesn't actually have a supply issue, unlike Vancouver.
2. The new rent control measures are heavy handed and will deter domestic investors.
3. Anti-shadow flippers, vacancy tax measures.

Back in 2016, the number of foreign buyers in GTA was likely much lower than Vancouver. But many of those buyers were shifted to Toronto after Aug 2016. Like it or not, it's a game of hot potato. GTA had no choice but to implement the tax. The speculators amplified that effect.

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