Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Feb 12th, 2019 3:03 pm
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Member
May 18, 2015
451 posts
626 upvotes
Thornhill, ON
fryguy1987 wrote:
Apr 22nd, 2017 9:53 pm
It's already been stated several times that the government only wants to cool the market, not cause a huge correction.
The government isn't omnipotent. By their own admission, they don't even fully understand this market, much less are they able to control animal instincts even if they did.

This bubble is complex and a myriad of factors have culminated in the current housing euphoria - One thing is for certain though, sentiment, not fundamentals have taken over. It's possible that this government may have just killed sentiment and "pricked the bubble" in the process. We don't know if this is the bursting of the bubble yet, but when fundamentals reassert - and they will- many overextended sheep will learn the hard way that mean reversion is a b*tch.
Millenial1994 wrote:
Dec 9th, 2018 12:31 pm
not possible
literally impossible to lose on RE in GTA if you hold for at least 2 years.
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
jonkoktosen wrote:
Apr 22nd, 2017 10:10 pm
The government isn't omnipotent. By their own admission, they don't even fully understand this market, much less are they able to control animal instincts even if they did.

This bubble is complex and a myriad of factors have culminated in the current housing euphoria - One thing is for certain though, sentiment, not fundamentals have taken over. It's possible that this government may have just killed sentiment and "pricked the bubble" in the process. We don't know if this is the bursting of the bubble yet, but when fundamentals reassert - and they will- many overextended sheep will learn the hard way that mean reversion is a b*tch.
Fundamentals, eh?
Did we rid off 200k yearly population increase in GTA? And did we get many new houses built? Hardly. In last few years demand was steady while supply sometimes didn't follow it. In Burlington few years ago they had maybe 500+ new houses every year. Last two years they build only ~50 semis (which being sold in few hours). Quite same story for Oakville. Demand overwhelm supply with great magnitude and you believe prices will fall just because everyone will trust BS from Wayne ? FB tax didn't work in Vancouver, hardly will in Toronto
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
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Jan 20, 2016
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MMMPower wrote:
Apr 22nd, 2017 7:41 pm
go to zolo , or this

Image
Problem with average number- it could be so useless
In a hospital average temperature is 36.6 but you have two dead bodies with 30c and two burn out wit 42...

In terms of RE. Let say in March you have two towns sold for 500 and two houses for 1m. Average is 750k. Now with all this doom and gloom high-end sellers decided to wait and didn't list. But townhouses owners still decided to sell and sold for 600k(20% plus btw). But..."average" sold price...dropped from 750k before lol

Thus, "average" by itself mean nothing in terms of RE

P.s. in my hood ALLhouses in March jumped at least 10% while Zolo shows mere 1%. They have quite zero credibility for me as I already saw many manipulation with data from them before
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
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Apr 21, 2004
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Looks like immigration will be for decades to come to support public service, cpp pensions and ever increasing health care costs.

I am not complaining as most of our predecessors were immigrants as well but 100k (divided by 4 to get to a conservative household number) is a lot of eager property buyers in the years to come.

How can Canada create good paying jobs outside the major city centers that aren't already filled? If it can't, people, from fringe cities, will still come pouring into major city centers like the GTA.
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Jan 22, 2003
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Austin/Markham
I don't understand this expectation of a sudden price drop. I can foresee a drop in condo's due to higher supply due to more landlords deciding to sell due to the new rent control rules. But SFH detached in Markham or Willowdale? The sky's the limit...

I dont see the foreign tax having any effect. Most foreigners buying likely have "some" status in Canada, how many are just ghosts? One big draw of GTA is its great for kids. If I could save 15% I'd just put the house in my kid's name and enroll him in University or College.

I asked my Taiwanese wife if the the 15% tax would stop Chinese from buying. She asked is the tax one-time or annually. LOL. Its just a blip to the rich or folks with black money, just the price for laundering.
__
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Dec 1, 2013
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redflagdeals.com
Breaking News!!!

The next place to purchase/invest in RE is Shelburne, Ontario. The market there is hot, hot, hot! Only a short 1.5 hour drive from Toronto. Get it while it's hot!

Source:
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/i- ... -1.4077117

"Now demand for homes in Shelburne, Orangeville and their surroundings, is spiking, and so are prices. Shelburne's population is swelling (more than 8,000 now, up from about 5,846 in 2011) and there are more new subdivisions, and a big box store complex on the way."

"The average price for a freehold home in Shelburne is now $473,743, up 23 per cent from this time last year."
Last edited by dealseaker101 on Apr 23rd, 2017 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Feb 9, 2009
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Also depends.

Lets just say the sky does fall and toronto market goes down 50% over the next 2 years like some people think... lets say chinese market goes up a conservative 20% over those two years...

Do you think a 15% FBT is stopping the herd from coming to buy every piece of property here on the market? You think the Americans wouldnt come running here? Or any major country if their housing market doesnt correct like ours?

Toronto market would be running back up before you know it. And thats even before it gets down 50%... which there is no way in todays globalized society that happens.

And I assume if we see an overload of condos go on the rental market Mother Wynne will have to amend some rules regarding rent control -- not necessarily get rid of it but say that landlords can pass on additional increases in say condo fees, property tax, hydro, etc etc etc and increase rent by inflation regardless of inflation rate. The last thing they need is condos sitting empty which could have been producing a tenant there if not for the new rules...also with rent control this could slow more condo developers from coming out with new buildings... and this could lead to supply shortage over the next few years once the glut gets through (if it does happen)
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
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Toronto
lol what people dont get is that there is lots of buyers still left.. market can't fall 50% because demand will come in and buy it up.. there is no widespread job loss. people can afford prices now.... imagine a 50% drop???
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Dec 13, 2016
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unrelated, but what is happening to condo fees at MM building in Mississauga?

Mississauga Landmark Building ""Absolute World 2"". Gorgeous & A Very Spacious Suite (635 Sq.Ft)

Maintenance Fees
$593.78 Monthly

With tax and heating this is probably pushing $1000 a month.

Is this building done?
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Dec 5, 2015
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Thornhill, ON
BiegeToyota wrote:
Apr 23rd, 2017 10:36 am
unrelated, but what is happening to condo fees at MM building in Mississauga?

Mississauga Landmark Building ""Absolute World 2"". Gorgeous & A Very Spacious Suite (635 Sq.Ft)

Maintenance Fees
$593.78 Monthly

With tax and heating this is probably pushing $1000 a month.

Is this building done?
Heating? Heat would be included in condo fees

Tax would be cheap for it too
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Apr 21, 2004
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daivey wrote:
Apr 23rd, 2017 10:24 am
lol what people dont get is that there is lots of buyers still left.. market can't fall 50% because demand will come in and buy it up.. there is no widespread job loss. people can afford prices now.... imagine a 50% drop???
And rationale prospective buyers can see the merits of ownership as only 45% of the mortgage payment is interest cost. If they are to stay in the GTA and are betting rates will remain quite low until such time as they pay off their mortgages, it's best for them to get their own place.

=====

Those condo fees are crazy expensive. Almost like paying for property tax already.
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Feb 9, 2009
7176 posts
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BiegeToyota wrote:
Apr 23rd, 2017 10:36 am
unrelated, but what is happening to condo fees at MM building in Mississauga?

Mississauga Landmark Building ""Absolute World 2"". Gorgeous & A Very Spacious Suite (635 Sq.Ft)

Maintenance Fees
$593.78 Monthly

With tax and heating this is probably pushing $1000 a month.

Is this building done?
It's already a slum condo with drug dealers everywhere and prostitutes.

But yeah mother wynne is going to have to amend rent control to allow increases in supplemental expenses like condo fees, etc.., I heard rent control was a last minute add for wynne so she didn't clearly didn't think through the consequences of her actions with that rule ... I'm sure over the next few weeks once she understands how stupid rent control is with how it's worded today that she'll amend it

Though I think it's also overstated how many investors are gonna throw their unit for sake, lots of landlords already increase by very little
Newbie
Apr 21, 2017
21 posts
1 upvote
daivey wrote:
Apr 23rd, 2017 10:24 am
lol what people dont get is that there is lots of buyers still left.. market can't fall 50% because demand will come in and buy it up.. there is no widespread job loss. people can afford prices now.... imagine a 50% drop???
Yes, lots of buyers still left. The gov should really kill of the speculators that flip house and add costs to the actual buyers ...

A house assignment can flip 3 4 times before it reaches the actual buyers.. take those speculators out and the same house will be sold at much lower price. The demand is there but price can be a lot lower if gov target the right person.

That should work better than rent control and vacant taxes... and we know that's coming.

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