Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?
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- Feb 3rd, 2023 4:08 pm
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- SCORE+20
- Sanyo
- Deal Guru
- Feb 9, 2009
- 12381 posts
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- boing388
- Jr. Member
- Oct 14, 2012
- 129 posts
- 150 upvotes
- Toronto
Occupancy date is 2020, I planned to rent it out,
I'm still living comfortably with the parents and paying rent lol, What I planned was If for any reason I needed to move out it would be nice to have a condo to move into immediately, but it wasn't like something I needed, it was more of an investment. So now I'm hesitating as I still have a chance to get out of the contract.
I'm still living comfortably with the parents and paying rent lol, What I planned was If for any reason I needed to move out it would be nice to have a condo to move into immediately, but it wasn't like something I needed, it was more of an investment. So now I'm hesitating as I still have a chance to get out of the contract.
- WinterSleep
- Deal Addict
- Jan 26, 2016
- 2240 posts
- 2272 upvotes
- Toronto, ON
@Jungle
You have to take these surveys with a grain of salt
1) It is a Canada-wide poll.
2) People are spending a whole lot on discretionary spending, and you can expect those to take a back seat to compensate.
3) A lot of jobs and a lot of the growth in GDP comes from housing and related industries. In fact, all the growth in Feb 2017 GDP was due to real estate industry.
If rates increase, then you will expect #2 and #3 to be adversely affected. That will mean a lot of job loss and decreased GDP, which in turn will keep BoC in check when it comes to raising rates. So BoC may try to increase rates, but will be forced to reduce once its effect propagates in the industry.
Also, if you read the report, income increase is still stagnant at 1%, well below inflation. That signals BoC will be in no hurry to increase rates.
You have to take these surveys with a grain of salt
1) It is a Canada-wide poll.
2) People are spending a whole lot on discretionary spending, and you can expect those to take a back seat to compensate.
3) A lot of jobs and a lot of the growth in GDP comes from housing and related industries. In fact, all the growth in Feb 2017 GDP was due to real estate industry.
If rates increase, then you will expect #2 and #3 to be adversely affected. That will mean a lot of job loss and decreased GDP, which in turn will keep BoC in check when it comes to raising rates. So BoC may try to increase rates, but will be forced to reduce once its effect propagates in the industry.
Also, if you read the report, income increase is still stagnant at 1%, well below inflation. That signals BoC will be in no hurry to increase rates.
- SmugDruggler
- Banned
- May 8, 2017
- 458 posts
- 735 upvotes
Are you able to rent it out at a rate that covers all of your costs? Why are you hesitating? Do you have any other investments?boing388 wrote: ↑ Occupancy date is 2020, I planned to rent it out,
I'm still living comfortably with the parents and paying rent lol, What I planned was If for any reason I needed to move out it would be nice to have a condo to move into immediately, but it wasn't like something I needed, it was more of an investment. So now I'm hesitating as I still have a chance to get out of the contract.
_____
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
- joepipe
- Deal Addict
- Jul 3, 2007
- 4153 posts
- 4626 upvotes
- Toronto
Anyone have this article in full? I dont have globe unlimited....
Im hearing a lot of purchases cant close and its causing a major spillover effect for the sellers who bought....
Another article quoted one house in burlington bought for $1.085 million in Feb got re-appraised for $875k in May !!!
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/to ... e35270886/
Im hearing a lot of purchases cant close and its causing a major spillover effect for the sellers who bought....
Another article quoted one house in burlington bought for $1.085 million in Feb got re-appraised for $875k in May !!!
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/to ... e35270886/
- daivey
- Penalty Box
- Dec 27, 2013
- 8003 posts
- 4050 upvotes
- Toronto
ouch. that's definitely something people need to be aware of.joepipe wrote: ↑ Anyone have this article in full? I dont have globe unlimited....
Im hearing a lot of purchases cant close and its causing a major spillover effect for the sellers who bought....
Another article quoted one house in burlington bought for $1.085 million in Feb got re-appraised for $875k in May !!!
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/to ... e35270886/
- WinterSleep
- Deal Addict
- Jan 26, 2016
- 2240 posts
- 2272 upvotes
- Toronto, ON
Here is the trick to read it - on the page click Alt-A to select all, the Ctrl-C to copy, then paste in notepad to read.joepipe wrote: ↑ Anyone have this article in full? I dont have globe unlimited....
Im hearing a lot of purchases cant close and its causing a major spillover effect for the sellers who bought....
Another article quoted one house in burlington bought for $1.085 million in Feb got re-appraised for $875k in May !!!
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/to ... e35270886/
Edit: But this is a video so that wouldn't work. If it were text you could read like that.
- CollegeGraduate
- Banned
- Aug 19, 2016
- 1903 posts
- 762 upvotes
Thanks a lot buddy. Now they know and will plug the whole soon.WinterSleep wrote: ↑ Here is the trick to read it - on the page click Alt-A to select all, the Ctrl-C to copy, then paste in notepad to read.
Edit: But this is a video so that wouldn't work. If it were text you could read like that.
- WinterSleep
- Deal Addict
- Jan 26, 2016
- 2240 posts
- 2272 upvotes
- Toronto, ON
Seems pretty much in line with what we saw in Vancouver after FBT
MAY/17 - $1,830,900 *** ALL-TIME HIGH ***
APR/17 - $1,767,200
MAR/17 - $1,714,100
FEB/17 - $1,758,800
JAN/17 - $1,501,800
DEC/16 - $1,676,200
NOV/16 - $1,612,400
OCT/16 - $1,598,800
SEP/16 - $1,532,200
AUG/16 - $1,470,300 <-- price drop of 300k
JUL/16 - $1,764,600
- SmugDruggler
- Banned
- May 8, 2017
- 458 posts
- 735 upvotes
Vancouver's completely different from Toronto. First they introduced the interest free down payment matching plan ("HOME") in Jan, 2017, which developer loved but pretty much everyone else said was a bad idea: http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... homebuyersWinterSleep wrote: ↑ Seems pretty much in line with what we saw in Vancouver after FBT
MAY/17 - $1,830,900 *** ALL-TIME HIGH ***
Second, they didn't have the MASSIVE FLOOD of listings that Toronto is now experiencing, which is still going strong.
So unless Wynne does something equally as stupid as giving away free loans for down payments as BC (I wouldn't put it past her), and unless the supply dries up, it's not likely to happen here. Totally different.
_____
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
- sircheersa
- Deal Expert
- Feb 22, 2011
- 16505 posts
- 21844 upvotes
- Toronto
Vancouver had a much larger decrease in sales than Toronto did, they also had more listings. They also had more foreign investment.SmugDruggler wrote: ↑ Vancouver's completely different from Toronto. First they introduced the interest free down payment matching plan ("HOME") in Jan, 2017, which developer loved but pretty much everyone else said was a bad idea: http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... homebuyers
Second, they didn't have the MASSIVE FLOOD of listings that Toronto is now experiencing, which is still going strong.
So unless Wynne does something equally as stupid as giving away free loans for down payments as BC (I wouldn't put it past her), and unless the supply dries up, it's not likely to happen here. Totally different.
You don't think the government will intervene if the market dips too much? They will only intervene if it's growing too fast?
- SmugDruggler
- Banned
- May 8, 2017
- 458 posts
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The province and the Bank of Canada have pretty much said that we're in a bubble and they know it. I don't know if they'll intervene on the way down, and I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
_____
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
- sircheersa
- Deal Expert
- Feb 22, 2011
- 16505 posts
- 21844 upvotes
- Toronto
When have Libs ever let a market crash without doing anything to try and curb it? I really can't think of a single example. Last time there was a crash they increased amortization and reduced lending requirements. We used to have 40 year mortgages, they only recently reduced it to 30 max, even that requires 20%.SmugDruggler wrote: ↑ The province and the Bank of Canada have pretty much said that we're in a bubble and they know it. I don't know if they'll intervene on the way down, and I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Last edited by sircheersa on Jun 10th, 2017 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- SmugDruggler
- Banned
- May 8, 2017
- 458 posts
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There's an election next year. The likelihood of the Liberals winning is slim.
_____
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
- RamneekSingh76
- Sr. Member
- Dec 3, 2013
- 615 posts
- 256 upvotes
- Brampton/waterloo
market went over 30%, yoy at peak, since then its only down less than 10%, and if we go for long term growth at 5%, we can still go down 15% to go to "regular more normal growth"
Government intervened after 2 years of signfiicant growth, I feel like government will intervene again maybe if theres significant decrease, not "less growth"
We just sold our house, expected 1.25m in April, rejected an offer of 1.182m ended up having to take 1.155m when comparables sold up to 1.3m in peak but now those people are at risk of dropping the deals.
- SmugDruggler
- Banned
- May 8, 2017
- 458 posts
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Sounds like housing has guaranteed upside and no downside. You should leverage yourself up and buy more of it. Way up.
_____
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
- sircheersa
- Deal Expert
- Feb 22, 2011
- 16505 posts
- 21844 upvotes
- Toronto
I 100% will. I have properties generating positive cash flow, tenants paying down my mortgage and long term leveraged appreciation.SmugDruggler wrote: ↑ Sounds like housing has guaranteed upside and no downside. You should leverage yourself up and buy more of it. Way up.
Obviously I know there are short term fluctuations but to expect prices to go down long term is absurd.
- cartfan123
- Deal Guru
- Sep 8, 2007
- 10978 posts
- 14470 upvotes
- Way Out of GTA
Ouch $27,000 up in smoke.RamneekSingh76 wrote: ↑ market went over 30%, yoy at peak, since then its only down less than 10%, and if we go for long term growth at 5%, we can still go down 15% to go to "regular more normal growth"
Government intervened after 2 years of signfiicant growth, I feel like government will intervene again maybe if theres significant decrease, not "less growth"
We just sold our house, expected 1.25m in April, rejected an offer of 1.182m ended up having to take 1.155m when comparables sold up to 1.3m in peak but now those people are at risk of dropping the deals.
- RamneekSingh76
- Sr. Member
- Dec 3, 2013
- 615 posts
- 256 upvotes
- Brampton/waterloo
well it was more than just that, cuz after rejecting it we spent another couple k emptying and cleaning out basement as tenants were living there, but its still not really a big deal as last year we had only expected $1m for the house, still got 155k more than what we expected. now that 155k can be used to buy another house, if market drops further.cartfan123 wrote: ↑ Ouch $27,000 up in smoke.
- cartfan123
- Deal Guru
- Sep 8, 2007
- 10978 posts
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- Way Out of GTA
Yeah that's a reasonable way of looking at it. Got it sold still for good money and move on.RamneekSingh76 wrote: ↑ well it was more than just that, cuz after rejecting it we spent another couple k emptying and cleaning out basement as tenants were living there, but its still not really a big deal as last year we had only expected $1m for the house, still got 155k more than what we expected. now that 155k can be used to buy another house, if market drops further.