Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • May 26th, 2017 4:37 pm
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Jr. Member
May 8, 2017
141 posts
217 upvotes
Veritate wrote:
May 16th, 2017 10:29 am
I can guarantee you there are more than 40 million Chinese with over 1 million in household networth.
Are you suggesting that China has 3x the number of millionaires as the United States the world's richest country , that there are 39 million millionaires in China that somehow go undetected, and that there's a millionaire for every man, woman, and child in Beijing and Shanghai combined?
Newbie
Aug 16, 2013
67 posts
10 upvotes
SmugDruggler wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:02 am
Are you suggesting that China has 3x the number of millionaires as the United States the world's richest country , that there are 39 million millionaires in China that somehow go undetected, and that there's a millionaire for every man, woman, and child in Beijing and Shanghai combined?
If you mean number of individuals over 18 with networth (all fixed assets + all liquid assets - all liabilities) over 1MM USD, then, yes. Do understand that census/survey data is no-where even near accurate in China.
Jr. Member
May 8, 2017
141 posts
217 upvotes
Veritate wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:07 am
Do understand that census/survey data is no-where even near accurate in China.
74% of Chinese assets are held in real estate. How do all these millionaires hide their millions in real estate?
Jr. Member
Jun 24, 2011
148 posts
56 upvotes
West Lafayette, Indi…
SmugDruggler wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:02 am
Are you suggesting that China has 3x the number of millionaires as the United States the world's richest country , that there are 39 million millionaires in China that somehow go undetected, and that there's a millionaire for every man, woman, and child in Beijing and Shanghai combined?
You clearly don't know China.

Tier-1 and tier 2 cities can each host more than 10 million people, with at least 20% of all the apartment units costing more than $1mil. That's easily 40 mil people with assets more than $1mil.

There are also more than 100 cities with a population of 1 million or more. Let's say only the top 5% in each city has $1mil, that's another 5 million millionaires.

When talking about things in China, one has to be aware of the sheer size and scale of this country and its population. Canada has 36 million residents. In China, 36 million is basically a city's population.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3712 posts
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IndustrialKid wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:21 am
You clearly don't know China.

Tier-1 and tier 2 cities can each host more than 10 million people, with at least 20% of all the apartment units costing more than $1mil. That's easily 40 mil people with assets more than $1mil.

There are also more than 100 cities with a population of 1 million or more. Let's say only the top 5% in each city has $1mil, that's another 5 million millionaires.

When talking about things in China, one has to be aware of the sheer size and scale of this country and its population. Canada has 36 million residents. In China, 36 million is basically a city's population.
How much of those assets are debt?
Jr. Member
May 8, 2017
141 posts
217 upvotes
IndustrialKid wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:21 am
You clearly don't know China.
Bejing buy
Average price inside the city centre: $1179/sqft
Average price outside the city centre: $514 (!)/sqft

Beijing rent
In city centre: 1BR $984/mo
Outside city centre: 1BR $540/mo

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/i ... rrency=USD
Last edited by SmugDruggler on May 16th, 2017 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
Jr. Member
Apr 5, 2017
189 posts
18 upvotes
fdl wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:28 am
How much of those assets are debt?
Usually buy houses by all cash.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3712 posts
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melcon wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:37 am
Usually buy houses by all cash.
I doubt it. Chinese household debt is actually quite high...


"The first issue is that household debt has risen too quickly, the second is that it has risen too quickly as a proportion" of GDP and disposable income, said Wan.

Underlining these concerns, authorities are trying to calm a property rally. In the latest move, regulators told banks to limit the issuance of home loans, the Shanghai Securities Journal reported on Thursday.

The balance of retail mortgages at the end of the third quarter hit 16.8 trillion yuan ($2.5 trillion), more than a third higher than a year earlier, China central bank data shows.

More broadly, consumer debt financed by Chinese banks has grown sharply, from 3.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2007 to 17.4 trillion yuan at the end of last year, a compound annual growth rate of 21 percent, Fitch Ratings said in a report.

But the growth in income has been much more modest, rising 6.3 percent in January to September compared with the year-earlier period, the weakest pace since 2013 when the National Bureau of Statistics first started issuing the data.

"The rapid growth in outstanding (consumer) loan balances has been accompanied by an increase in NPLs (non-performing loans) across all segments of consumer debt," the Fitch report said.


Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china ... SKBN1360OK
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
3411 posts
1030 upvotes
stryder1587 wrote:
May 16th, 2017 10:38 am
The income gap disparity in China is huge. The poor have nothing while the rich are loaded. You can't look at the average of China as a whole. The rich are the ones coming from the major cities. The farmers are all poor until the developers come to buy up their land.
You must also be talking about Canada now lol

Difference is in Canada the poor can lean on the gov't to give them stuff where in China they have to rely on themselves for everything. But the poor now in China like you said are getting rich from developers building. The city folks for the most part are rich already if they own real estate. Real estate is King in China. You can see them influence a great number of markets from Vancouver, Seattle, Sydney, Auckland, Los Angeles and Toronto.

Also in China there is a fear that the gov't could take everything away one day (hence why all these Chinese have invested in worldwide assets) whereas in Canada you dont have that fear.
Jr. Member
Jun 24, 2011
148 posts
56 upvotes
West Lafayette, Indi…
SmugDruggler wrote:
May 16th, 2017 11:37 am
Bejing buy
Average price inside the city centre: $1179/sqft
Average price outside the city centre: $514 (!)/sqft

Beijing rent
In city centre: 1BR $984/mo
Outside city centre: 1BR $540/mo

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/i ... rrency=USD
Again, ave. numbers don't mean anything really here. There is still rampant poverty among the majority of the population, but that doesn't stop the rich from getting richer and influence the world with their powers. The scary thing is, there's nothing anybody can do to stop this phenomenon.

The recent One Belt, One Road summit shows clearly that the Chinese are going to bypass the US dollar and build their own economic and political empire now. Just imagine in a decade or two when oil is worth pennies and all transactions are conducted in RMB, where would Canada be on the map?
Sr. Member
User avatar
Jun 11, 2005
942 posts
140 upvotes
SmugDruggler wrote:
May 16th, 2017 8:30 am
China has 1.3 million millionaires, hardly the population of Canada.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/countrie ... aires.html

Even the United States, the country with the most millionaires in the world, doesn't have more millionaires than Canada's population. (15.7M millionaires for those who don't want to click).
do u seriously believe everyone in china reports all of their net worth/income, provided the government they have?
Member
Jul 16, 2006
241 posts
87 upvotes
Blehh wrote:
May 16th, 2017 12:37 pm
do u seriously believe everyone in china reports all of their net worth/income, provided the government they have?
Face With Tears Of Joy Lets tell communist China where all the Money is so they can come take it.
Jr. Member
Apr 5, 2017
189 posts
18 upvotes
Sanyo wrote:
May 16th, 2017 12:07 pm
You must also be talking about Canada now lol

Difference is in Canada the poor can lean on the gov't to give them stuff where in China they have to rely on themselves for everything. But the poor now in China like you said are getting rich from developers building. The city folks for the most part are rich already if they own real estate. Real estate is King in China. You can see them influence a great number of markets from Vancouver, Seattle, Sydney, Auckland, Los Angeles and Toronto.

Also in China there is a fear that the gov't could take everything away one day (hence why all these Chinese have invested in worldwide assets) whereas in Canada you dont have that fear.
In Canada, we have democracy, hahah which every canadian is so proud of, and think it values more than being rich :p
Jr. Member
May 8, 2017
141 posts
217 upvotes
Blehh wrote:
May 16th, 2017 12:37 pm
do u seriously believe everyone in china reports all of their net worth/income, provided the government they have?
Do you seriously believe that China has more millionaires than the entire world?
Images
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Feb 9, 2009
3411 posts
1030 upvotes
melcon wrote:
May 16th, 2017 12:56 pm
In Canada, we have democracy, hahah which every canadian is so proud of, and think it values more than being rich :p
eww what a socialist way of thinking.... if you dont have people who can create the wealth, where is your publicly funded healthcare going to come from? From the sky magically?
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