Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 17th, 2018 12:09 pm
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[OP]
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Dec 5, 2009
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CDNPatriot wrote:
May 19th, 2017 4:42 pm
Run searches for recent days on mongohouse.com

I lost two bidding wars in the last two weeks. Prices are still creeping up and going over the ask.
Where though?
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May 8, 2017
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fdl wrote:
May 19th, 2017 4:51 pm
Where though?
I just did a cursory look in Toronto and Richmond Hill. It's a mixed bag in both areas: plenty went under asking, plenty went over asking.
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Go look at solds last year and you will see houses sold under asking too -- people are thinking this is some new thing happening.

Only unusual thing was the increased listings which has a lot of unmotivated sellers. We will see some of them drop out soon enough. We had record low inventory in winter as well.
[OP]
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Selling over or under asking is rather meaningless. What matters is the sold price relative to comparibles earlier in the year. And ultimately the year prior.
Jr. Member
May 26, 2008
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... pital-woes
Slower demand is hitting as more homeowners opt to sell. New listings in the first half of May climbed 47 percent from last year to 12,626 and unit sales fell to 5,021, the board found. The preliminary May data reflects about three weeks of home-buying activity since Home Capital was accused by regulators of misleading investors, triggering a run on deposits. It also follows the Ontario government’s April 20 announcement of a 15 percent tax on foreign purchasers, part of a broader effort to cool off rapidly rising property prices.
It will be interesting to see what the data will look like for the full month.
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Apr 5, 2017
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Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
Sr. Member
Jan 26, 2016
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Toronto, ON
lawbooth wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:13 pm
Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
He is a clown
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Feb 9, 2009
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lawbooth wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:13 pm
Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
And how many closed without any issues?
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
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Toronto
squeaky wheel gets the grease.

of course the people that had a deal go wrong, are the ones that will bitch and moan the loudest... the ones that closed without a hitch, you don't hear shit.
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Jan 5, 2003
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Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,021 transactions through TREB’s MLS® System during the first 14 days of May 2017. This result was down by 16 per cent in comparison to the same time period in May 2016. The decline in sales was greatest for low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses.
The number of new listings was up by 46.9 per cent year-over-year to 12,626, compared to 8,596 new listings entered during the first two weeks of May 2016. Growth in new listings was strongest for low-rise home types. From a geographic perspective, year-over-year growth in new listings was much stronger in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto compared to the City itself.

Growth in average selling prices remained very strong compared to last year. Through the first 14 days of May, the average selling price for all home types combined was $890,284 – up 17.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2016. For the TREB Market Area as a whole, the strongest rates of price growth were reported for condominium apartments, at 28.5 per cent. However, annual rates of price growth for low-rise home types remained strong as well – ranging from 16.7 per cent for detached houses to 25.5 per cent for semi-detached houses.

While we have certainly experienced a better supplied market over the past two months, inventory levels remain low in many neighbourhoods, hence the continuation of double-digit rates of price growth. If we continue to see new listings growth outstripping sales growth we could see the pace of price growth slow further.
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Jan 5, 2003
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For mid month, 416 detached crashed all the way to 1.551
Overall average price crashed all the way to 890,284

Doomed! :)
Newbie
May 2, 2017
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The government wants to ruin the free market!
The government wants another recession!
[OP]
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Flavour wrote:
May 20th, 2017 1:09 am
For mid month, 416 detached crashed all the way to 1.551
Overall average price crashed all the way to 890,284

Doomed! :)
Not doomed. But if it holds it will be the third straight month of declining prices in what should be the hottest time of the year. Summer could get ugly, maybe. That said , Toronto seems to be doing much better than some parts of 905. I think that's where the bigger story is.
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fdl wrote:
May 20th, 2017 8:15 am
Not doomed. But if it holds it will be the third straight month of declining prices in what should be the hottest time of the year. Summer could get ugly, maybe. That said , Toronto seems to be doing much better than some parts of 905. I think that's where the bigger story is.
The Bulls still clinging desperately to the YOY% numbers whereas what I'm interested is the trend in MOM%. It's like a stock getting destroyed in the last month but bulls on the stock only want to talk about the yoy increase. Ignoring the recent trend is down.

I guess they can plug their ears, close their eyes and proceed with their bias but I prefer the few posters on here that try to post balanced data. Not "RE going to zero" or "RE going to the moon" with the childish taunts that accompany them. It says a lot about them as people.

As an aside these days I ignore stats that use unadjusted "new listings" since there are so many terminate and relists that are showing up under the new listing category. A metric like "adjusted new listing" which equals new listing minus any relistings/price adjustments to get an accurate picture of actual new product to hit the market. The new listings number would fall by a margin considering the amount of listings that are just unmotivated sellers trying to get an unreasonable price based off the Apr/Mar mania pricing.
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fdl wrote:
May 20th, 2017 8:15 am
Not doomed. But if it holds it will be the third straight month of declining prices in what should be the hottest time of the year. Summer could get ugly, maybe. That said , Toronto seems to be doing much better than some parts of 905. I think that's where the bigger story is.
Not sure what you mean third straight month of declining prices, it would be the first by the two averages I posted and that most people are interested in, although unusual as the first decline usually happens in July not May. There has been a decline in sales if that's what you mean.

Any time the government says "don't worry we're working on a plan to help you" normal people get nervous so the lower sales and large increase in listings is understandable. If that remains the only issue and rates stay low and unemployment doesn't increase then housing will be fine. We're still in the 17% yoy increase range which is still a great number. Bears may have to rethink that 17 may finally be their year.

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