Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • May 28th, 2017 6:07 am
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[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3726 posts
1208 upvotes
I know it's zolo, so sales mix and grains of salt and all that, but we're seeing some potentially really ugly MoM numbers right now in several parts of the 905. Places like Richmond Hill, Markham, Oakville, Newmarket to name a few, are showing double digit MoM price declines. We could even see a negative YoY number in a couple places for May if this trend continues.

Toronto seems to be stronger and holding onto prices better. Perhaps due to strength in the condo market.
Deal Addict
Aug 26, 2004
1574 posts
13 upvotes
Run searches for recent days on mongohouse.com

I lost two bidding wars in the last two weeks. Prices are still creeping up and going over the ask.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3726 posts
1208 upvotes
CDNPatriot wrote:
May 19th, 2017 4:42 pm
Run searches for recent days on mongohouse.com

I lost two bidding wars in the last two weeks. Prices are still creeping up and going over the ask.
Where though?
Jr. Member
May 8, 2017
167 posts
271 upvotes
fdl wrote:
May 19th, 2017 4:51 pm
Where though?
I just did a cursory look in Toronto and Richmond Hill. It's a mixed bag in both areas: plenty went under asking, plenty went over asking.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
3416 posts
1038 upvotes
Go look at solds last year and you will see houses sold under asking too -- people are thinking this is some new thing happening.

Only unusual thing was the increased listings which has a lot of unmotivated sellers. We will see some of them drop out soon enough. We had record low inventory in winter as well.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3726 posts
1208 upvotes
Selling over or under asking is rather meaningless. What matters is the sold price relative to comparibles earlier in the year. And ultimately the year prior.
Newbie
May 26, 2008
66 posts
56 upvotes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... pital-woes
Slower demand is hitting as more homeowners opt to sell. New listings in the first half of May climbed 47 percent from last year to 12,626 and unit sales fell to 5,021, the board found. The preliminary May data reflects about three weeks of home-buying activity since Home Capital was accused by regulators of misleading investors, triggering a run on deposits. It also follows the Ontario government’s April 20 announcement of a 15 percent tax on foreign purchasers, part of a broader effort to cool off rapidly rising property prices.
It will be interesting to see what the data will look like for the full month.
Newbie
User avatar
Apr 5, 2017
21 posts
18 upvotes
Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
Lawyer @ Law Booth Real Estate Lawyers & Notaries
Member
Jan 26, 2016
388 posts
252 upvotes
Toronto, ON
lawbooth wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:13 pm
Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
He is a clown
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
3416 posts
1038 upvotes
lawbooth wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:13 pm
Yesterday Garth Turner mentioned me in his blog for this reason. I told him that I received numerous calls with buyers trying to get out of their deal because they feel they spent too much. I am not sure if the hammer is going to drop yet but I see some movement.
And how many closed without any issues?
Deal Fanatic
Dec 27, 2013
5512 posts
1569 upvotes
Toronto
squeaky wheel gets the grease.

of course the people that had a deal go wrong, are the ones that will bitch and moan the loudest... the ones that closed without a hitch, you don't hear shit.
Member
User avatar
Jan 5, 2003
323 posts
52 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,021 transactions through TREB’s MLS® System during the first 14 days of May 2017. This result was down by 16 per cent in comparison to the same time period in May 2016. The decline in sales was greatest for low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses.
The number of new listings was up by 46.9 per cent year-over-year to 12,626, compared to 8,596 new listings entered during the first two weeks of May 2016. Growth in new listings was strongest for low-rise home types. From a geographic perspective, year-over-year growth in new listings was much stronger in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto compared to the City itself.

Growth in average selling prices remained very strong compared to last year. Through the first 14 days of May, the average selling price for all home types combined was $890,284 – up 17.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2016. For the TREB Market Area as a whole, the strongest rates of price growth were reported for condominium apartments, at 28.5 per cent. However, annual rates of price growth for low-rise home types remained strong as well – ranging from 16.7 per cent for detached houses to 25.5 per cent for semi-detached houses.

While we have certainly experienced a better supplied market over the past two months, inventory levels remain low in many neighbourhoods, hence the continuation of double-digit rates of price growth. If we continue to see new listings growth outstripping sales growth we could see the pace of price growth slow further.
Member
User avatar
Jan 5, 2003
323 posts
52 upvotes
For mid month, 416 detached crashed all the way to 1.551
Overall average price crashed all the way to 890,284

Doomed! :)
Newbie
May 2, 2017
18 posts
6 upvotes
The government wants to ruin the free market!
The government wants another recession!
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
3726 posts
1208 upvotes
Flavour wrote:
May 20th, 2017 1:09 am
For mid month, 416 detached crashed all the way to 1.551
Overall average price crashed all the way to 890,284

Doomed! :)
Not doomed. But if it holds it will be the third straight month of declining prices in what should be the hottest time of the year. Summer could get ugly, maybe. That said , Toronto seems to be doing much better than some parts of 905. I think that's where the bigger story is.
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