Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Nov 15th, 2018 11:55 pm
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Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
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Thornhill
Come tomorrow's news from TREB's Market Watch I wonder what will be hyped the most:

1) The increase in active listings not seen for 6 years or so, or

2) The overall fewer aggregate sales without mention that Toronto proper stuck a finger in its eye and said, I'm not done yet, or

3) The boomers saying - we're outta here! or

4) Rental income investors saying - 'we're done!

I think it will be 1 and 2 most in the industry and media aren't good at getting out in front of story.
[OP]
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Dec 5, 2009
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licenced wrote:
Jun 4th, 2017 7:58 pm
Come tomorrow's news from TREB's Market Watch I wonder what will be hyped the most:

1) The increase in active listings not seen for 6 years or so, or

2) The overall fewer aggregate sales without mention that Toronto proper stuck a finger in its eye and said, I'm not done yet, or

3) The boomers saying - we're outta here! or

4) Rental income investors saying - 'we're done!

I think it will be 1 and 2 most in the industry and media aren't good at getting out in front of story.
#1,2 and whatever the price change is.
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
licenced wrote:
Jun 4th, 2017 7:58 pm
Come tomorrow's news from TREB's Market Watch I wonder what will be hyped the most:

1) The increase in active listings not seen for 6 years or so, or

2) The overall fewer aggregate sales without mention that Toronto proper stuck a finger in its eye and said, I'm not done yet, or

3) The boomers saying - we're outta here! or

4) Rental income investors saying - 'we're done!

I think it will be 1 and 2 most in the industry and media aren't good at getting out in front of story.
I think we will get a lot of headline grabbing at the down number but myself i am looking at it as the 1st month after the FBT. More interested in what the trend is over the summer and into the fall. We won't know if it was just a bout of quick panic or cash out dumping in May. Pundits on all side are going to use the data to promote their view.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
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licenced wrote:
Jun 4th, 2017 7:58 pm
Come tomorrow's news from TREB's Market Watch I wonder what will be hyped the most:

1) The increase in active listings not seen for 6 years or so, or

2) The overall fewer aggregate sales without mention that Toronto proper stuck a finger in its eye and said, I'm not done yet, or

3) The boomers saying - we're outta here! or

4) Rental income investors saying - 'we're done!

I think it will be 1 and 2 most in the industry and media aren't good at getting out in front of story.
Sure. We're going to be down 80% this year because everyone are sellers all of a sudden... get ready.
Deal Guru
Jun 26, 2011
11350 posts
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Markham
licenced wrote:
Jun 4th, 2017 7:58 pm
Come tomorrow's news from TREB's Market Watch I wonder what will be hyped the most:

1) The increase in active listings not seen for 6 years or so, or

2) The overall fewer aggregate sales without mention that Toronto proper stuck a finger in its eye and said, I'm not done yet, or

3) The boomers saying - we're outta here! or

4) Rental income investors saying - 'we're done!

I think it will be 1 and 2 most in the industry and media aren't good at getting out in front of story.
Can their stats even substantiate #s 3 and 4 ?
Deal Expert
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Mar 18, 2005
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Niagara Falls
cartfan123 wrote:
Jun 4th, 2017 8:15 pm
I think we will get a lot of headline grabbing at the down number but myself i am looking at it as the 1st month after the FBT. More interested in what the trend is over the summer and into the fall. We won't know if it was just a bout of quick panic or cash out dumping in May. Pundits on all side are going to use the data to promote their view.
Very much this. The papers will use the most negative value they can find to push the highest possible sales, however the truth will only be known in a few months.
Member
Aug 7, 2014
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NEWS TODAY: Toronto home sales crashed in May, but prices are still soaring

The latest statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB):

While year-over-year prices remained firmly in the double digits, home sales in both the City of Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) — which encompasses the 905 and 416 area codes — took a hit when compared with May of last year.

In Toronto proper, the May 2016 to May 2017 declines were:
Detached: –26.1 per cent
Semi-detached: –14.1 per cent
Townhouse: –24.3 per cent
Condo: –4.3 per cent

For the GTA, the drops were:
Detached: –26.3 per cent
Semi-detached: –22.7 per cent
Townhouse: –18.1 per cent
Condo: –6.4 per cent

The total combined average drop in sales was –20.3 per cent, TREB reported.

The average price of a home, however, did not take a nose dive. In May last year the cost was $752,100, a figure that's now $863,910. If you want to live in the city, you're looking at a price of $899,728.

These increases come despite the number of new listings shooting by 42.9 per cent when compared with last May.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/r ... -1.4145893
Deal Fanatic
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
psudolam wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 7:10 am
NEWS TODAY: Toronto home sales crashed in May, but prices are still soaring

The latest statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB):

While year-over-year prices remained firmly in the double digits, home sales in both the City of Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) — which encompasses the 905 and 416 area codes — took a hit when compared with May of last year.

In Toronto proper, the May 2016 to May 2017 declines were:
Detached: –26.1 per cent
Semi-detached: –14.1 per cent
Townhouse: –24.3 per cent
Condo: –4.3 per cent

For the GTA, the drops were:
Detached: –26.3 per cent
Semi-detached: –22.7 per cent
Townhouse: –18.1 per cent
Condo: –6.4 per cent

The total combined average drop in sales was –20.3 per cent, TREB reported.

The average price of a home, however, did not take a nose dive. In May last year the cost was $752,100, a figure that's now $863,910. If you want to live in the city, you're looking at a price of $899,728.

These increases come despite the number of new listings shooting by 42.9 per cent when compared with last May.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/r ... -1.4145893
Garbage headline grabbing article. What most people were looking for was the average selling prices on a month to month basis to see the affect of the FBT and other measures. Based on the April report "average selling price for all home types combined was up by 24.5 per cent to $920,791.

A better summary than the CBC from the Globe
Toronto's overheated housing market has cooled rapidly since the Ontario government announced a suite of new housing measures in April, with average prices dropping 6 per cent in May while the number of homes sold fell by 12 per cent during the month.

The average sale price for all home types in the Greater Toronto Area was $863,910 in May, a drop of 6.2 per cent from $920,791 in April, according to sales data from the Toronto Real Estate Board. The price was still up 15 per cent compared to May, 2016, however, because of large price gains earlier this year.
Their blurb "did not take a nose dive" making the headline readers to think prices didn't actually drop. If the headline was Avg Toronto home prices fell a mere few percent from April I guess not as headline grabbing. "Collapse" or "Soar" much more attention getting I guess. I just want the numbers.
Last edited by cartfan123 on Jun 5th, 2017 7:35 am, edited 3 times in total.
Deal Expert
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Mar 18, 2005
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Niagara Falls
I'm actually​ very surprised by the tone of the CBC and Toronto Star articles.
[OP]
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Dec 5, 2009
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A better article from the financial post . ....

HOME FINANCIAL PERSONAL TORONTO HOME SALES DROP MOST SINCE RECESSION AS NEW RULES PUT BRAKES ON MARKET
Toronto home sales drop most since recession as new rules put brakes on market

CREDIT: FINANCIALPOST.COM

TORONTO — Sales of existing homes across the Greater Toronto Area dropped a whopping 20.3 per cent in May from a year ago, while the average home price in the region fell about six per cent from April, results based on the first full month of data following a major initiative by the Ontario government to cool Canada’s biggest housing market.


The Toronto Real Estate Board said Monday there were 10,196 sales through the Multiple Listing Service last month, down from 12,790 sales reported in May 2016. Detached home sales fell 26.3 per cent during the period and condominium apartment sales were off 6.4 per cent.


The Toronto home market has not seen such substantial declines in both sales and prices since the recession of 2008.


“The actual, or normalized, effect of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan remains to be seen. In the past, some housing policy changes have initially led to an overreaction on the part of homeowners and buyers, which later balanced out,” said Jason Mercer, director of market analysis with TREB, in a statement.


Vancouver real estate market heating up again as sales and prices recover from buyers tax
Real estate market uncertainty is forcing appraisers to take a second look

The Ontario government announced 16 measures on April 20 to cool the housing market, among them a 15 per cent non-resident speculation tax and expansion of rent controls that limit annual increases, that some commentators have suggested could cool the appetite of investors looking for income properties


TREB pointed to a 14.9 per cent increase in the average price of a home from a year ago, but the $863,910 May figure for the GTA compares with an average of $920,791 in April, a 6.2 per cent drop.


Active listings — the number of properties available for sale — rose 42.9 per cent in May from a year ago, but the board pointed out that May, 2016 was a record low.


“The increase in active listings suggests that homeowners, after a protracted delay, are starting to react to the strong price growth we’ve experienced over the past year by listing their home for sale to take advantage of these equity gains,” Mercer said.


The province stepped in with its rule changes after March prices climbed about 33 per cent on a year-over-year basis, a point that now appears to have been the peak of the housing market in the GTA.


Christopher Alexander, Regional Director, RE/MAX INTEGRA Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region, said in an interview his company has noticed “a flood of new listings” to hit the market, but suggested they are selling, just not as quickly as from January from April.


“I think we are seeing some flattening in prices from previous rules,” Alexander said. “These are the biggest measures the government has taken in the last several years. There has been a lot of talk about the market being overheated so a lot of buyers are seeing how the market is going to play out.”


He suggests the response could be similar to what happened in Vancouver, which is now seeing prices and sales start to rise again after the province put in a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers in August, 2016. Sales in in Greater Vancouver in May jumped 22.8 per cent from April, while prices rose 8.8 per cent in May from a year ago and 2.8 per cent from April.


“I think if we have a bit of a pause (in Toronto), I think the market is going to accelerate in the fall strongly,” Alexander said.


TREB said active listings increased considerably for low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses, but were down for condominium apartments in May from a year ago.


“Home buyers definitely benefited from a better supplied market in May, both in comparison to the same time last year and to the first four months of 2017,” said Larry Cerqua, president of the board in a statement.


gmarr@postmedia.com

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http://worldnews.easybranches.com/conte ... ket-166093
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Feb 9, 2009
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psudolam wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 7:10 am
The total combined average drop in sales was –20.3 per cent, TREB reported.
The average price of a home, however, did not take a nose dive.
Did you mean the listing asking price? Or sold price? Isn't it too early to expect current market inertia to change? Real estate agents still keep misleading the buyers on market prospects.
[OP]
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arnycus wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 8:13 am
Did you mean the listing asking price? Or sold price? Isn't it too early to expect current market inertia to change? Real estate agents still keep misleading the buyers on market prospects.
No, some are trying to ignore the trend and are still grasping at the YoY figure, which is dwindling away more and more every month.
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
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Toronto
Yes news outlets are showing it in optimistic light, YOY still 15% up MOM is slightly down, spirit of buyers is rising and likely we will see MOM same or up next month.
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May 10, 2017
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YoY may be up, but MoM is down.
What should we be focusing on in this case?
Poor

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