Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

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  • Sep 12th, 2018 12:07 pm
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Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2011
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onlineharvest wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 12:43 pm
Curious, RE agents or those with access to its data, do you have data on averages for different sized condos? 1 bed, 2 bed, etc

I haven't seen any downward movement in price for smaller condos where I reside, wondering if that's the same trend elsewhere, or simply area dependent.
I've not done any research by number of bedrooms and I last looked at prices on Monday for all condos that sold in Toronto for July. I do generally follow size as opposed to number of bedrooms.

I noted that where sales prices where up to the $700k's there was strong evidence of bidding wars, meaning over asking offers. Thereafter they moderate until the $800's where sale prices tapered off to at or close to asking and thereafter proceeded downwards as price rose.

In every market it's normal that the higher the price the fewer the buyers so that wasn't surprising. What it does note is that since the competitive demand for condos is in the under $700k number, these are not buyers who would have been looking for a house as houses haven't been that low in the core in many years.

If you'd like I'd be happy to do a cursory check and see if number of bedrooms is playing a factor, although I don't think it is.
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May 31, 2007
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ZOLO shows condo sales breakdown over last 30 and I believe is 95% accurate
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May 9, 2017
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Jungle wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 6:34 pm
Last time I spoke I think it was 289k. (rough memory) Last house sold 670k one month ago.


"GTA all house type Averages" are used because nothing else reliable found on google. Check all those amateur webpages they have different prices. Here's TREB'S only public historical data (GTA Average all house type) If you read, discussion turned to "what would it be like to buy in 1989" (peek market) - after I posted about situation.

If you can find Toronto detach average price in 1989 please add to discussion would love to see the annual return until now. (28 years)
You seem like a good dude, responding in a polite, rational way even when someone is basically calling you a liar. Good for you.
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May 31, 2007
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NotRobot wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 8:16 pm
You seem like a good dude, responding in a polite, rational way even when someone is basically calling you a liar. Good for you.
I have 4 positive feedback in BST and almost 1000 up votes just from posting in this thread. Plus almost 4k posts over 10 years, no penalty box, or banning. I don't have any reason to lie. However I can't remember the exact purchase price and finding any kind of data for 1989 other than average does not seem so easy.
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Jan 17, 2006
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NotRobot wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 8:16 pm
You seem like a good dude, responding in a polite, rational way even when someone is basically calling you a liar. Good for you.
Yes, and you second time today complimented him. Nobody called him a liar but showed incoherence and discrepancy in his stories.
And you I see created an account in May 2017 and all your focus on real estate as well. He's probably so kind that even shares the IP address with you or proxy )
Penalty Box
Feb 13, 2017
876 posts
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ilim wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 10:15 pm
Yes, and you second time today complimented him. Nobody called him a liar but showed incoherence and discrepancy in his stories.
And you I see created an account in May 2017 and all your focus on real estate as well. He's probably so kind that even shares the IP address with you or proxy )
hahahaha....got him!
Sr. Member
May 9, 2017
739 posts
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ilim wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 10:15 pm
Yes, and you second time today complimented him. Nobody called him a liar but showed incoherence and discrepancy in his stories.
And you I see created an account in May 2017 and all your focus on real estate as well. He's probably so kind that even shares the IP address with you or proxy )
Well somebody did question him about his fake aunt.

We are not quite at the stage of sharing the IP address but I can feel it's getting so close. Three more compliments and it's mine :)
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Feb 9, 2009
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cowbunpants wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 4:04 pm
Oh yeah, cause there's not enough people on welfare and other social teats.
Agreed. That's exactly what "top business talent" means, given a mass of poor uneducated and profession less people coming from primarily Middle East, Africa and Latin America to Canada largest cities over last decades, most to Toronto. While practically no new highrise rental housing is been built. It means even faster skyrocketing rents, all basements filled with these "top business talents", and long lines of recent university grads doing warehouse packing at minimum wage, and considering themselves very lucky to have that income. The worst thing is, there is no intention to offer these newcomers developing new lands in Canada - this is what they are welcome for here in the 1st place. Instead, they are all allowed to just drop at Toronto or Vancouver airport and settle around it.

Having 2 Canada cities grown to 100mln people as they set the goal for - that's the challenge no else city on this planet went through. Will be a lot worse living conditions for most new and old settlers (today's Canadian citizens) than in any African country. Their entire life savings will disappear in a few weeks upon arrival. And then most will go on welfare, or better for them - on universal basic income, designed specifically for growing automation trends. Yeah, lets fully automate manufacturing in Canada, and then invite the entire poor world to live here on universal basic income handed over by government. They say we need them - but what for? Recent grads in large cities have extreme challenge to find jobs now in their professions. Due to changed immigrants demographics average family size grown to 3-4 kids already, so plenty of new workers to replace retirees. Almost half of manual labor in Toronto is done for minimum wage now by abundant cheap labor. What is the purpose to invite such numbers of poorest the least educated and cultural people in the world each year to Canada? How they can contribute to Canada technological challenges in turning economy towards 21st century? Almost none of these people dedicate themselves to develop and settle on new lands in Canada, thus making even 300K/year immigration quota totally absurd - we simply don't need them now in overcrowded Toronto and Vancouver. Canada is not a global welfare state, minimum wage primarily service jobs and basement rental should not become our prevalent living standard.
Last edited by arnycus on Aug 4th, 2017 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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May 9, 2017
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arnycus wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 10:40 am
Agreed. That's exactly what "top business talent" means, given a mass of poor uneducated and profession less people coming from primarily Middle East, Africa and Latin America to Canada largest cities over last years, most to Toronto. While practically no new highrise rental housing is been built. It means even faster skyrocketing rents, all basements filled with these "top business talents", and long lines of recent university grads doing warehouse packing at minimum wage, and considering themselves very lucky to have that income. The worst thing is, there is no intention to offer these newcomers developing new lands in Canada - this is what they are welcome for here in the 1st place. Instead, they are all allowed to just drop at Toronto or Vancouver airport and settle around it.

Having 2 Canada cities grown to 100mln people as they set the goal for - that's the challenge no else city on this planet went through. Will be a lot worse living conditions for most new settlers than in any African country. There entire life savings will disappear in a few weeks. And then most will go on welfare, or better for them - on universal basic income, designed specifically for growing automation trends. Yeah, lets fully automate manufacturing in Canada, and then invite the entire poor world to live here on universal basic income handed over by government. They say we need them - but what for? Recent grads in large cities have extreme challenge to find jobs now in their professions. Due to changed immigrants demographics average family size grown to 3-4 kids already, so plenty of new workers to replace retirees. Almost half of manual labor in Toronto is done for minimum wage now by abundant cheap labor. What is the purpose to invite such numbers of poorest the least educated and cultural people in the world each year to Canada? How they can contribute to Canada technological challenges in turning economy towards 21st century? Almost none of these people dedicate themselves to develop and settle on new lands in Canada, thus making even 300K/year immigration quota totally absurd - we simply don't need them now in overcrowded Toronto and Vancouver. Canada is not a global welfare state, minimum wage primarily service jobs and basement rental should not become our prevalent living standard.
Fertility rates in Canada have been under 2 for a long time. Without immigration the population would shrink. The data in the link below is to 2013. Do you have new data to show the average family is actually having 3-4 kids?

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableau ... 5b-eng.htm
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I'm talking about recent immigrants families, not core Canada population in remote country areas. Inviting 100mln of such poorest people to Canada will do nothing to solve demographics challenges, since they all settle around 2 major cities, where we have already abundant supply of kids and new grads. If you have new grads in your family, you would know what challenges they go through for several years to find a decent job, and many don't find any. There is no reason to invite 100mln newcomers without drastically changing settlement policies, and offering them to develop new lands in exchange for privilege to leave in Canada. It was done like this centuries ago, and due to that old smart policy we have a large country now, not just a few cities. But it still has plenty of heavily under-developed land all around it. This is indeed a huge privilege to settle in Canada, we are not obligated to carry this extreme burden exclusively in our largest cities. If some of them refuse to come from Africa and Middle East to develop new lands here, no-one is going to cry - its their voluntary choice.

Go to any large mall in Toronto or Vancouver within lower priced rental housing areas. All day long such malls resemble a typical 3rd world capital - entirely new immigrants packed - Latinos, Asian, African - almost none working, most collecting welfare, some min wage, plenty of elderly parents from the same countries contrary to claims of adding kids demographics. At times its hard to say what country we live in anymore, especially in the 2 largest cities. And how we can afford to feed and house 100mln newcomers in Toronto and Vancouver, many for free?
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Feb 22, 2011
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arnycus wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:14 am
I'm talking about recent immigrants families, not core Canada population in remote country areas. Inviting 100mln of such poorest people to Canada will do nothing to solve demographics challenges, since they all settle around 2 major cities, where we have already abundant supply of kids and new grads. If you have new grads in your family, you would know what challenges they go through for several years to find a decent job, and many don't find any. There is no reason to invite 100mln newcomers without drastically changing settlement policies, and offering them to develop new lands in exchange for privilege to leave in Canada. It was done like this centuries ago, and due to that old smart policy we have a large country now, not just a few cities. But it still has plenty of heavily under-developed land all around it. This is indeed a huge privilege to settle in Canada, we are not obligated to carry this extreme burden exclusively in our largest cities. If some of them refuse to come from Africa and Middle East to develop new lands here, no-one is going to cry - its their voluntary choice.

Go to any large mall in Toronto or Vancouver within lower priced rental housing areas. All day long such malls resemble a typical 3rd world capital - entirely new immigrants packed - Latinos, Asian, African - almost none working, most collecting welfare, some min wage, plenty of elderly parents from the same countries contrary to claims of adding kids demographics. At times its hard to say what country we live in anymore, especially in the 2 largest cities. And how we can afford to feed and house 100mln newcomers in Toronto and Vancouver, many for free?
Man you just sound like an old racist, go move to Texas and vote Trump or something.
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May 9, 2017
739 posts
716 upvotes
arnycus wrote:
Aug 4th, 2017 11:14 am
I'm talking about recent immigrants families, not core Canada population in remote country areas. Inviting 100mln of such poorest people to Canada will do nothing to solve demographics challenges, since they all settle around 2 major cities, where we have already abundant supply of kids and new grads. If you have new grads in your family, you would know what challenges they go through for several years to find a decent job, and many don't find any. There is no reason to invite 100mln newcomers without drastically changing settlement policies, and offering them to develop new lands in exchange for privilege to leave in Canada. It was done like this centuries ago, and due to that old smart policy we have a large country now, not just a few cities. But it still has plenty of heavily under-developed land all around it. This is indeed a huge privilege to settle in Canada, we are not obligated to carry this extreme burden exclusively in our largest cities. If some of them refuse to come from Africa and Middle East to develop new lands here, no-one is going to cry - its their voluntary choice.

Go to any large mall in Toronto or Vancouver within lower priced rental housing areas. All day long such malls resemble a typical 3rd world capital - entirely new immigrants packed - Latinos, Asian, African - almost none working, most collecting welfare, some min wage, plenty of elderly parents from the same countries contrary to claims of adding kids demographics. At times its hard to say what country we live in anymore, especially in the 2 largest cities. And how we can afford to feed and house 100mln newcomers in Toronto and Vancouver, many for free?
Canada does need immigration because of low fertility rates, ageing demographics or our standard of living will decrease with a shrinking population, fewer workers and more retirees. I'm not saying we need 100mln but we need some.

Newly landed immigrants do have lower employment rates and higher unemployment rates but by they time they have been here for 10 years the stats are pretty close to those born in Canada. See link.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableau ... 0a-eng.htm

I don't hang out in malls so I can't comment on your experience about that.

There's lots of immigrants in my area. I see normal people talking care of their properties and getting up in the morning going to work and school. I live in a decent area of Toronto so I'm not saying there aren't problems in other areas.

Also, in previous jobs that I've had many of the roles we were hiring for were filled by hard working, highly educated immigrants.

I know very little about Canada's immigration policies and I have no doubt there are plenty of opportunities for improvement, I hope we get it right.
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Jun 12, 2017
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Jungle wrote:
Aug 3rd, 2017 2:27 pm
Identical house sold month earlier (same finishes too!) for 70k less, so now comparable is worth less. Why would someone pay more when sales are down so much and listings have increased?
I really hope @trekkie500 can chime in here, he did analysis from 1989 average price, annual return was around 2% or something. This does not include the cost of home ownership, 30 years of property taxes, insurance, maintenance, renos, realtor and lawyer fees to liquidate. etc

So no, housing is not guaranteed to be a "magical journey" with a "happy ending".
Wasn't me who did such an analysis. FWIW though, I don't disagree. The mean trendline tends to stay around inflation + 3%. Current availability of cheap money has seriously messed things up though so it is hard to predict if/when we will drop to mean (I don't doubt we will get to mean eventually.. just don't think it is easy to call when and if we will get there via a drop or stagnation until mean catches up).
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Jan 20, 2007
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Niagara
Found this report on CHMC regarding prices around the Toronto and how they are linked. Could prove to be quite a drop in the surrounding areas if Toronto prices go down for a length of time. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/ ... 1936280831

"Our results show that house price spillovers are greatest for CMAs that are closer to the GTA. In particular, a one per cent house price shock in the GTA leads to a 1.4 per cent price change in Hamilton within one year. For example, if GTA house prices rise unexpectedly by 10 per cent in a particular quarter, then Hamilton house prices could rise by 14 per cent in response within one year. Conversely, an unexpected 10 per cent contraction in GTA prices could lead Hamilton prices to decline by 14 percent within one year. After three years, the total impact of a one per cent house price shock in the GTA on Hamilton prices is 2.0 per cent. Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, Barrie, and Peterborough all have impacts in the range of 1.7 to 1.9 per cent after three years, while St. Catharines has a slightly lower impact at 1.5 per cent. The remainder of the CMAs all have impacts that are lower. It is worth noting that the GTA experiences the strongest impact from a one per cent shock, at 2.3 per cent after three years, as prices spillover even within the GTA from more central to surrounding areas."
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ancodia wrote:
Aug 5th, 2017 8:47 am
Found this report on CHMC regarding prices around the Toronto and how they are linked. Could prove to be quite a drop in the surrounding areas if Toronto prices go down for a length of time. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/ ... 1936280831

"Our results show that house price spillovers are greatest for CMAs that are closer to the GTA. In particular, a one per cent house price shock in the GTA leads to a 1.4 per cent price change in Hamilton within one year. For example, if GTA house prices rise unexpectedly by 10 per cent in a particular quarter, then Hamilton house prices could rise by 14 per cent in response within one year. Conversely, an unexpected 10 per cent contraction in GTA prices could lead Hamilton prices to decline by 14 percent within one year. After three years, the total impact of a one per cent house price shock in the GTA on Hamilton prices is 2.0 per cent. Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, Barrie, and Peterborough all have impacts in the range of 1.7 to 1.9 per cent after three years, while St. Catharines has a slightly lower impact at 1.5 per cent. The remainder of the CMAs all have impacts that are lower. It is worth noting that the GTA experiences the strongest impact from a one per cent shock, at 2.3 per cent after three years, as prices spillover even within the GTA from more central to surrounding areas."
Thanks. Interesting article. But I wonder how things like the foreign tax might change that typical relationship. For example, could it drive some investors out of the GTA...

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