Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jun 6th, 2018 7:33 am
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Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
6822 posts
2638 upvotes
Toronto
NotRobot wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 2:36 pm
Who cares? @imperial1 made some good money, why do you need a full accounting of the transaction?
cause it's not him that made it = jelly?
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
125 posts
171 upvotes
I've been keeping my eye on the column between Bathurst and Bayview, north and south of the 401. My impression is that there has been a significant drop, overall, in list prices in late August and early September (ie. list prices reflecting and that are in line with what houses have actually been selling for over the past month, rather than the 'inflated' prices that seemed to be common in July and August). Do you notice the same for newer listing prices for detached homes in the areas you are scoping? Many thanks.
Deal Addict
Jul 14, 2002
1436 posts
532 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 11:37 am
I've been keeping my eye on the column between Bathurst and Bayview, north and south of the 401. My impression is that there has been a significant drop, overall, in list prices in late August and early September (ie. list prices reflecting and that are in line with what houses have actually been selling for over the past month, rather than the 'inflated' prices that seemed to be common in July and August). Do you notice the same for newer listing prices for detached homes in the areas you are scoping? Many thanks.
yup, i have noticed the new listings in early september have reflected that. a neighbours home was listed a month ago for 1.4 (removed since) and a week ago the same type of house came up on a different street a little less renovated ($50k value) for $990k.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2013
1292 posts
263 upvotes
Mississauga
inferiorplanet wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 11:37 am
I've been keeping my eye on the column between Bathurst and Bayview, north and south of the 401. My impression is that there has been a significant drop, overall, in list prices in late August and early September (ie. list prices reflecting and that are in line with what houses have actually been selling for over the past month, rather than the 'inflated' prices that seemed to be common in July and August). Do you notice the same for newer listing prices for detached homes in the areas you are scoping? Many thanks.
List price doesn't mean anything, made obvious in the last year. What matters is the sold price.
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
125 posts
171 upvotes
jdu0ng wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 12:13 pm
List price doesn't mean anything, made obvious in the last year. What matters is the sold price.
I would disagree. When list prices are 'inflated' it often indicates that there is a large gulf/gap between what the seller wants and what buyers are willing to pay. This increases the chance that the home will not sell, which happened a lot this summer. When list prices are more in line with what similar homes have been selling for, the distance between the seller's and buyer's expectations is closer, which increases the likelihood of a sale.
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
125 posts
171 upvotes
I would add that the importance/effect of list price varies in a bull vs. bear market. In a falling or depressed market, list price is very important.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4778 posts
2616 upvotes
The problem with only comparing list prices this year to last, is the change away from the strategy of listing below market to stimulate bids from last year to now could skew the comparison.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
3690 posts
3251 upvotes
Toronto
zabee wrote:
Sep 13th, 2017 5:13 pm
Not sure if this article has already been posted here.

Canada had 1 city where people were worth over $1M last year. There are 4 now
http://globalnews.ca/news/3720403/canad ... s-million/
At $1,721,630, Vancouver maintained the highest average household net worth of all metropolitan areas, but it was joined in the $1-million club by Toronto ($1,154,107), Victoria ($1,055,468) and Calgary ($1,039,607).

Wow.
Member
Jun 19, 2017
388 posts
590 upvotes
I don't think there have been too many listings in my area since the April peak, a few houses listed at lower prices sold, and those listed at higher prices have been sitting.

Anecdotally, I just noticed an unusual volume of new listings that have just come online in the last two days, most seem to be priced at the high end, near April prices...it's a pretty desirable area in the city, seems odd to see the listing volume.

Interesting to see how this plays out, but I don't think this is turning out well for those who thought they would get better prices in the fall.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
4778 posts
2616 upvotes
Qrewpt wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 1:05 pm
I don't think there have been too many listings in my area since the April peak, a few houses listed at lower prices sold, and those listed at higher prices have been sitting.

Anecdotally, I just noticed an unusual volume of new listings that have just come online in the last two days, most seem to be priced at the high end, near April prices...it's a pretty desirable area in the city, seems odd to see the listing volume.

Interesting to see how this plays out, but I don't think this is turning out well for those who thought they would get better prices in the fall.
Also anecdotally, I'm seeing a lots of listings this week. Every day more than the previous, and several "coming soon" signs. This is in Richmond Hill. I think sales will pickup, but active listings will remain extremely high keeping downward pressure on prices
Member
User avatar
Jul 8, 2010
419 posts
298 upvotes
Ontario
Come on guys, Sanyo told us multiple times that everybody that was forced to sale has already done that beginning of the summer. Now there are only buyers in the market, price should shoot-up another 30% from April top....
Jr. Member
Jun 8, 2017
125 posts
171 upvotes
inferiorplanet wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 5:03 pm
In the news... National Bank of Canada economist opines that although the biggest fall in values has likely happened, he can see another 10% decline over the next 12 months. Thoughts? Thanks.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-e ... ndmail.com&
His estimate is based on the Teranet-National Bank Price Index level. Not familiar with that index...
Member
Mar 13, 2017
266 posts
381 upvotes
zabee wrote:
Sep 14th, 2017 5:12 pm
Canada's housing market seen headed for deceleration over next 5 years
Toronto market seen posting more gains, Vancouver forecast to hold steady
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada- ... -1.4287522
Same visibility, different month: Toronto & Vancouver are where the [only measurable] job growth is; Toronto & Vancouver's housing market is a reflection as such.

The BoC has been quick to act on the smokescreen of the FBT and intermittent decent looking GDP; they have to. When you're out of ammo you'll look for any window to reload, even if it's a few.

GDP data will once again correlate properly with the real story of how destitute things are outside the GTA & GVA. It will be interesting to see how the CAD reacts to that ... Trumpland would love to keep their dollars low.

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