Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jul 5th, 2018 8:51 am
Tags:
None
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
6230 posts
3431 upvotes
Also remember toronto has a lot of multi generational households ... my neighbor is Indian and his parents live with him . Not only does he get free daycare (score!) but also parents pensions helping with the bills. A lot of the Asian immigrants have this type of arrangement .... with the increasing multi generational households this is also allowing them to afford homes bigger than they maybe could.
Deal Fanatic
May 31, 2007
5000 posts
2108 upvotes
I look at some boomers and I am amazed at how easy they had it, and then how some of them could screw up so bad.

No globalization, no robots or technology taking jobs. High paying manufacturing jobs with little to no education to enter. (think GM 20 years ago) Police officers got in at 18 with only high school diploma. Etc..

Bought detach houses for cheap, made so much money. Raised a family of 2-3 kids, 2 cars, vacations, etc, all while mom stayed at home. (real middle class)

Unlikely to have same standard today.
Penalty Box
User avatar
Aug 11, 2005
3745 posts
1095 upvotes
LOoking more and more like a peak as more and more people are walking away. I wish there were stats on how many deals are being walked away from

Image
google NotDoug
Newbie
Jun 13, 2017
51 posts
97 upvotes
NotRobot wrote:
Oct 3rd, 2017 5:47 pm
You are right that millennials have a tougher time buying a home based on their income in Toronto or Vancouver proper. This is hard to argue against.

As someone from generation X in Toronto, I benefited greatly from home appreciation. Do I feel lucky? Yes. Do I feel entitled? No.

Haven't millennials benefited from their parents wealth when they were growing up in ways that their parents didn't (vacations, organized sports, having computers, cell phones, etc...? I would think yes.

Will millennial kids benefit from inheritances from their parents wealth? I would think yes.

Do some millennials feel a sense of entitlement (belief that one is deserving of or entitled to certain privileges) as a result of their parents wealth (i.e. think they should have it as "easy" as their parents)? For some yes, for others no.

I get that its tough out there but it's not all bad.
This is a more thoughtful and nuanced response. These generalizations about Millennials that lazy thinkers (like Varano) peddle are just tiresome and misinformed. The truth is, it's complicated. As you pointed out, Millennials benefited from a very fortunate upbringing and generally they want the same for their kids. Unfortunately this could be the first generation since the great depression that are worse off than their parents. I have benefited from market timing and it's refreshing to hear that you are also humble about your circumstances.
Member
Jun 15, 2017
298 posts
128 upvotes
Luckyinfil wrote:
Oct 3rd, 2017 9:18 pm
LOoking more and more like a peak as more and more people are walking away. I wish there were stats on how many deals are being walked away from

Image
Is this real?
Seller got a loss of 400+k including closing costs and agent fee
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
6230 posts
3431 upvotes
icelandespresso wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 12:12 am
This is a more thoughtful and nuanced response. These generalizations about Millennials that lazy thinkers (like Varano) peddle are just tiresome and misinformed. The truth is, it's complicated. As you pointed out, Millennials benefited from a very fortunate upbringing and generally they want the same for their kids. Unfortunately this could be the first generation since the great depression that are worse off than their parents. I have benefited from market timing and it's refreshing to hear that you are also humble about your circumstances.
Every gen benefits from time ... people in the 50s benefit, people from the 70s benefited, people who bought in the last peak in 1989 benefited, people who bought 2 years ago have benefited.

time is time.. as long as population grows, those in prime areas will always go up in price +/- short term volatility...

As population grows many people will be pushed out... if they want to own a detached they will move outside of Toronto. Those who dont mind renting or buying smaller will be fine in Toronto.

It's like people who bought in prime areas in the 40's, 60's, 80s, 2000s, etc etc... time will benefit you my friend.

Stock market is the same, anyone who bought TD bank in the 1970s is well ahead... anyone who bought Coca Cola in the 1940s has a minted fortune!!!

There is no luck in time... if you bought something 30 years ago and hasn't gone up vastly in price, there is a huge problem...
Newbie
Jun 13, 2017
51 posts
97 upvotes
porticoman wrote:
Oct 3rd, 2017 6:20 pm
and more, but it's not their fault ... life is good, one day at a time

Do the millennial spend too much compared to the Gen X, Gen Y or baby boomers?

Imagine life without a smart phone, a starbucks coffee, vacations, dining out a lot, living with parents.... I suppose this only applies to the few?
This is just lazy logic.

Is it fair to say millennials spend too much on Starbucks and cell phones? Instead of re-regurgitating some sensationalized headline about millennials let's actually think about this guys. Say I drank a $5 latte 5 days a week instead of saving. And say I spent $1000 on a cell phone every 2 years, Let's do the math for a 5 year period. (5 x 5 x 52 x 5) + (1000 x 3) = 9500. The average detached is 1.3M in Toronto - so for a 20% down payment (260k) this ground breaking baby boomer lifestyle that is being advocated has contributed.... 9,500 / 260,000 = 3,7% towards a down payment! No wonder you guys were buying detached homes in your early 20s on one income, what amazing fiscal insight. That doesn't even account for the fact that this buyer has to qualify for a 1M+ mortgage and will have no chance in paying it down for decades.

Baby boomers aren't dumb and neither are millennials. Let's stop pretending there's some behavioural / academic breakthrough that skipped a generation. Millennials aren't special, and just as importantly, neither are baby boomers.
Newbie
Jun 13, 2017
51 posts
97 upvotes
Sanyo wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 12:20 am
Every gen benefits from time ... people in the 50s benefit, people from the 70s benefited, people who bought in the last peak in 1989 benefited, people who bought 2 years ago have benefited.

time is time.. as long as population grows, those in prime areas will always go up in price +/- short term volatility...

As population grows many people will be pushed out... if they want to own a detached they will move outside of Toronto. Those who dont mind renting or buying smaller will be fine in Toronto.

It's like people who bought in prime areas in the 40's, 60's, 80s, 2000s, etc etc... time will benefit you my friend.

Stock market is the same, anyone who bought TD bank in the 1970s is well ahead... anyone who bought Coca Cola in the 1940s has a minted fortune!!!

There is no luck in time... if you bought something 30 years ago and hasn't gone up vastly in price, there is a huge problem...
Well said - time in the market vs timing the market, hopefully.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2010
8105 posts
805 upvotes
icelandespresso wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 12:22 am
This is just lazy logic.

Is it fair to say millennials spend too much on Starbucks and cell phones? Instead of re-regurgitating some sensationalized headline about millennials let's actually think about this guys. Say I drank a $5 latte 5 days a week instead of saving. And say I spent $1000 on a cell phone every 2 years, Let's do the math for a 5 year period. (5 x 5 x 52 x 5) + (1000 x 3) = 9500. The average detached is 1.3M in Toronto - so for a 20% down payment (260k) this ground breaking baby boomer lifestyle that is being advocated has contributed.... 9,500 / 260,000 = 3,7% towards a down payment! No wonder you guys were buying detached homes in your early 20s on one income, what amazing fiscal insight. That doesn't even account for the fact that this buyer has to qualify for a 1M+ mortgage and will have no chance in paying it down for decades.

Baby boomers aren't dumb and neither are millennials. Let's stop pretending there's some behavioural / academic breakthrough that skipped a generation. Millennials aren't special, and just as importantly, neither are baby boomers.
Boomers love to say this sorta of things and won't admit that they sort of screwjng the millennial. There are not enough jobs to go around but they keep importing immigrants to drive wages down. In the meantime using that to drive their retirements.
Deal Addict
Aug 19, 2016
1631 posts
623 upvotes
spike1128 wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 12:46 am
Boomers love to say this sorta of things and won't admit that they sort of screwjng the millennial. There are not enough jobs to go around but they keep importing immigrants to drive wages down. In the meantime using that to drive their retirements.
Humans are selfish. I am sure we will do the samething if we are in their position.
Banned
Jun 19, 2017
256 posts
179 upvotes
fdl wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 8:17 am
September data is out

http://www.trebhome.com/MARKET_NEWS/mar ... mw1709.pdf
Things are levelling out and the only thing (as usual in the past year), that could change that is government intervention. We will see how people respond to the ofsi BS. I'm very very surprised that realtors haven't been pumping hard on their clients to tell them to buy now because interest is only going higher.
Newbie
Jun 13, 2017
51 posts
97 upvotes
varano wrote:
Oct 4th, 2017 8:19 am
Things are levelling out and the only thing (as usual in the past year), that could change that is government intervention. We will see how people respond to the ofsi BS. I'm very very surprised that realtors haven't been pumping hard on their clients to tell them to buy now because interest is only going higher.
Imagine your investment advisor said "interest rates are going up, I recommend you lever yourself 5:1 on interest rate sensitive securities"...

Sorry sometimes you're just easy to pick on.
Banned
Aug 28, 2017
301 posts
356 upvotes
Hey guys....

Remember when the market was going to crash and September would be a down month?

Yeah...me neither.

Top