Real Estate

Did we just hit the peak of the Toronto RE bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 22nd, 2017 12:21 pm
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Member
Jul 25, 2005
433 posts
126 upvotes
GalvToronto wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:22 pm
You do not understand the essential things in statistics, that's why your are sure that if something is not explicitly mentioned on their site - then it is not true.
As I said, I love the way it goes.

Just feel it. FEEL IT!!!
1)Avg price increased $164k for 416 detached houses in September.
2)Avg price increased another 50k just in first 10 days of October
3)And we still have highly aggressive fanatics on this forum who are completely sure that it actually keeps falling

AHAHAHA, I LOVE IT!

P.S. Just check next month how HPI changes and remember my words.
Please educate us all about how the "essential things in statistics" works. I didn't attend my "Essential things in statistics 101" course. Maybe when a $6M detached sells tomorrow morning you can post up that 4) average price rose $6M in 1 hour.

Also, I am not speculating whether prices are falling or rising, I'm just calling out your highly flawed method of using average prices. Have a good night, and enjoy the popcorn. You might need more popcorn when OSFI rules are out.
Member
Mar 20, 2017
209 posts
221 upvotes
Avi44 wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:35 pm
Please educate us all about how the "essential things in statistics" works. I didn't attend my "Essential things in statistics 101" course. Maybe when a $6M detached sells tomorrow morning you can post up that average price rose $6M in 1 hour.
Nope, If someone sells one extra house for $6M, I would simply understand that total sales are 700+ and that sale only adds 8.5k to avg price.
While you would have an illusion that extra 6M house is super important and moves avg price to huge numbers up.
Member
Mar 20, 2017
209 posts
221 upvotes
Avi44 wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:35 pm
Also, I am not speculating whether prices are falling or rising, I'm just calling out your highly flawed method of using average prices. Have a good night, and enjoy the popcorn. You might need more popcorn when OSFI rules are out.
Average Semi detached in 416 rose 40k in September. Someone sells 6M semis, lol.
And what is even worse, those bad super rich guys keep doing their bad things of buying/selling 6M houses in October too, because October does not have avg price fall. In fact, they are doing it even faster:) ahaha
Jr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
194 posts
144 upvotes
GalvToronto wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:47 pm
Average Semi detached in 416 rose 40k in September. Someone sells 6M semis, lol.
And what is even worse, those bad super rich guys keep doing their bad things of buying/selling 6M houses in October too, because October does not have avg price fall. In fact, they are doing it even faster:) ahaha
The reality is that Ontario's real estate market is recovering, and quite possibly following the path that Vancouver did after their FBT. The sky isn't falling.

I wonder if the OSFI rules and other lending changes will just drive people to use more family money to buy houses? It doesn't seem that high prices have prevented real estate growth in other desirable areas of the world, so people must be able to get the money somehow.
Jr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
194 posts
144 upvotes
GalvToronto wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:03 pm
By the way, MLS shows current avg price for 416 zone as $859k today.
It means we are up $50k last 10 days.

While in 2016 we only had +$6k growth during the WHOLE October.
Time to get some popcorn and listen those bears and crash-talkers:)
The bears are going to be wrong again lol
Deal Addict
Aug 28, 2014
1575 posts
324 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Yawn, the reality is right here. Huge gulf between number of listings to sales, the same gulf that was there when things went to the dumps. Unless these two lines meet again like they did in the first quarter, the market isn't going to do squat.

Image
Deal Fanatic
Dec 11, 2008
7144 posts
431 upvotes
3 listings in my complex. The smaller ones reduced their prices down to $975k (previous selling record for these were $1.025M). The third one went cray cray and listed for $1.4M setting a new record. (previous selling record for this unit size was $1.3M)

We shall see if they sell. I have been noticing a ton of activity. Open houses had traffic this past weekend and daily, when I come home I see people looking around trying to find the units so they are getting showings during the day as well.

Will report on sold price if/when they do.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1676 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
nabiul wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 7:16 am
Yawn, the reality is right here. Huge gulf between number of listings to sales, the same gulf that was there when things went to the dumps. Unless these two lines meet again like they did in the first quarter, the market isn't going to do squat.

Image
I think you are really misunderstanding the graph here. This is inventory to sales. They would only meet if months of inventory is at 1 which would be extremely low. A balanced market is said to be 4-6.

The graph you are looking at is actually showing a decline in months of inventory. At the red perforated line MOI is 2.53 and at the end it's 2.3. This is because they are a ratio and an equal addition to both will have a higher percent change to the smaller number. You have inadvertently shown that the already seller's market is trending even further in that direction.
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
639 posts
430 upvotes
Burlington, ON
elpresidente wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 6:46 am
The bears are going to be wrong again lol
Given enough time, RE bears will always be wrong.
Jr. Member
Jun 19, 2017
162 posts
305 upvotes
West end, city of Toronto. Im looking at the detached market,, sales volume still appears to be very low, we are probably at 6 year+ lows for October.

The internet shows that price is up, and indeed one house this month I noticed looked like it sold for a very high price.

This all sounds very bullish, however neither of these metrics account for the houses that have not sold after being on the market for a month now, and now seem to be relisting at lower prices. This seems like the majority of desirable houses to me, at least in my area. I'm quite certain that if I listed my place, it's not likely that I would get a buyer unless I dropped my price well below comparable sales in the neighbourhood, simply because there are comparables which have not sold and are lowering their list prices.

At some point we will see sales volume return to more normal levels, and unless money policies loosen, we could see another big price correction when this happens.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1676 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
GalvToronto wrote:
Oct 11th, 2017 10:03 pm
By the way, MLS shows current avg price for 416 zone as $859k today.
It means we are up $50k last 10 days.

While in 2016 we only had +$6k growth during the WHOLE October.
Time to get some popcorn and listen those bears and crash-talkers:)
If you read the last month or so of postings you can notice a shift in the narrative and comments from we are experiencing a crash that will drive down further to x y z will cause a crash in the future.

Even look at the last few comments they are looking at houses in their area and trying to extrapolate that to the Toronto RE market.
Jr. Member
Jun 19, 2017
162 posts
305 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 8:37 am
If you read the last month or so of postings you can notice a shift in the narrative and comments from we are experiencing a crash that will drive down further to x y z will cause a crash in the future.

Even look at the last few comments they are looking at houses in their area and trying to extrapolate that to the Toronto RE market.
Meanwhile all the exhaustive observations of increasing prices are so relavent when sales are at 6+ year lows for September and October? It's fairly clear that we aren't in a normal balanced situation, anecdotal neighbourhood observations coupled with price, sales, active listings provide more info than "average price reported as being up." no?

I equate focusing on the price reports right now to observing how warm September and October have been then extrapolating that weather into the future infinitely.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
1676 posts
1475 upvotes
Toronto
Qrewpt wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 9:04 am
Meanwhile all the exhaustive observations of increasing prices are so relavent when sales are at 6+ year lows for September and October? It's fairly clear that we aren't in a normal balanced situation, anectofat neighbourhood observations help to hypothesise what could be happenning and certainly provides more information than "average price reported as being up"

I equate focusing on the price reports right now to observing how warm October has been then extrapolating that weather into the future infinitely.
We are lower than the last 6 years so we are not in a balanced market? Were we in a balanced market the last 6 years? You can't draw that false conclusion of we are lower than all time highs so it's not balanced. The argument of it has to be an all time record or it's a problem is absurd.
Jr. Member
Jun 19, 2017
162 posts
305 upvotes
rjg4235 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 9:13 am
We are lower than the last 6 years so we are not in a balanced market? Were we in a balanced market the last 6 years? You can't draw that false conclusion of we are lower than all time highs so it's not balanced. The argument of it has to be an all time record or it's a problem is absurd.
With all the bullish arguments that I have read o. This site touting population. Growth, tremendous wealth in the city, insatiable demand for housing, etc...

Given all that growth in capacity and demand, over the last 6 years, you would think that seeing volumes for the month drop to 6+ year lows would give you pause and make you think that something may be up? We aren't just comparing to last year or the year before.
Member
Mar 20, 2017
209 posts
221 upvotes
Qrewpt wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 9:24 am
With all the bullish arguments that I have read o. This site touting population. Growth, tremendous wealth in the city, insatiable demand for housing, etc...

Given all that growth in capacity and demand, over the last 6 years, you would think that seeing volumes for the month drop to 6+ year lows would give you pause and make you think that something may be up? We aren't just comparing to last year or the year before.
You can compare whatever you want to compare.
Markets are very resistant to any shocks usually. I saw it in Calgary when oil became 2-3 times cheaper. I saw it in Vancouver after foreign tax, I saw it even in Toronto after multiple stress tests.
Its very normal for markets not to give a crap about all shocks and tightening.

However now we are flooded by naive people who are completely sure that listings/sales unusual numbers MUST force permanent price decreasing.
Its so naive to treat mega resistant market as a virgin girl who will cry after first loud sound.
Therefore, what we have is growing recovering market and only your desperation that helps you to find some concerns in current numbers.
You can unreasonably think that all unsold sellers will be willing to sell their houses for nothing, but its already not happening and the market will teach you how resistant it is.
Last edited by GalvToronto on Oct 12th, 2017 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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