The thing is with real estate is that people like me (priced-out renters) actually buying them for keeps. If i know that the December price will be lower than November, I am going to wait and save 10's of thousands (yes, I pay 1 month worth of rent, big deal).rjg4235 wrote: ↑Dec 6th, 2017 12:49 pmI think you are right about YoY in Feb-Apr but the thing is it will be short lived. Once summer roles around it will not be compared to that April peak anymore. It will also end up getting buried in yearly data as once YoY is done they don't look at previous months anymore, just yearly price. The only people who will be comparing to April 2017 will be those who are looking for it.
If you are buying real estate as an investment, then you can look at YoY or don't need to care about the price all together because you are just buying the trees for the fruits. As long as the tree is still producing the fruits, you are satisfied.
Now then, if I believe the December price will be lower than November. I am going to speculate that January will be cheaper than December. With price deceleration, I am going to hold off for long long time because my money is worth more over time. This is the reason why central banks will never want a deflationary economy. It just doesn't move the economy.
Priced-out renters will wait and wait and wait as long as we see price deceleration.