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Do you think that bitcoin is a bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 13th, 2017 2:28 pm
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Poll: Will bitcoin crash?

  • Total votes: 192. You have voted on this poll.
No
 
61
32%
Yes, to less than $6000 USD
 
27
14%
Yes, to less than $4000 USD
 
15
8%
Yes, to less than $2000 USD
 
7
4%
Yes, to less than $1500 USD
 
2
1%
Yes, to less than $1000 USD
 
28
15%
Yes, to less than $500 USD
 
6
3%
Yes, to less than $100 USD
 
46
24%
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
My favourite comment from Greaterfool yesterday, # 22

Fun Fact: There are about 355,000 lines of C++ code in the bitcoin repository. Given that a very good coder can produce around 100 lines of code per day thats 9.7 person years of work assuming you work 365 days per year. There is no way bitcoin was created in response to the financial terrorist attacks of 2007-2008. I bet my bottom dollar Bitcoin was created by Goldman Sachs for the sole purpose of shorting it and further fleecing the mindless sheep rushing to get rich quick.

lol why do I have a feeling wall street is going to short the hell out of this once the futures trading is in tact? All the exchanges will crash, and bitcoin will finally be worthless. What a train wreck I see ahead.
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
xgbsSS wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:42 pm
When a brokerage has no longer access to the shares to borrow, the brokerage has no choice but to call in the shares. Not all shares or bitcoins are available to be borrowed. This occurs with ALL brokerages, although some may have better access to shares vs others. In order to borrow it, they have to be made available. For example, shares held in registered accounts are no available for people to borrow. Brokerages also set rules such as they have the right to lend out your shares or you have to give consent before this etc. Regardless, this changes the availability of shares to be held and hence why brokerages have to sometimes call in shorts. Hence why shorts are not the exact opposite of long positions: they come with much higher risk because of the limitations in how they are set p.

And if you think in this matter (+500%=missed opportunity), I will just say be careful. You are speculating if you think in this way. Not every money making opportunity is a wise trade, and comes with it's risk. Ask yourself, what is a bitcoin worth and why is the value up +500%/ Unlike companies, you have no metrics to value it as such. The only reason why it is worth that much more in terms of bitcoin is because people are speculating. Show us why that is false... the fact of the matter is noone can.

I will not touch bitcoin unless I am transferring money overseas, which is the one use I do use bitcoin for. Any money I would put in to speculate will be play money at most.
You typically have to have shares available from your broker FIRST before you can short sell, unless you naked shorted and got called in.


There absolutely are numbers to go by, just not the traditional sense. It is first and foremost a new asset class that resembles gold but also can be used as a currency, I would say commodity/currency. It is NOT a company, and shouldn't be valued as such I don't know people do this I guess only used to demonstrate how small the market is currently compared to commodities and currency. It is also a protocol and a network so you can also estimate by metcalfe's law.

As far as the price rise, it's more about how many users there are right now in the system. I mean if only 1 person using a bitcoin or some unknown coin it's value is 0, the more users there are the more valuable it becomes. I guess the added value of bitcoin comes from utility just like any currency, but IMO it's better because it has many other aspects compared to traditional fiat currency.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:56 pm
You typically have to have shares available from your broker FIRST before you can short sell, unless you naked shorted and got called in.


There absolutely are numbers to go by, just not the traditional sense. It is first and foremost a new asset class that resembles gold but also can be used as a currency, I would say commodity/currency. It is NOT a company, and shouldn't be valued as such I don't know people do this I guess only used to demonstrate how small the market is currently compared to commodities and currency. It is also a protocol and a network so you can also estimate by metcalfe's law.

As far as the price rise, it's more about how many users there are right now in the system. I mean if only 1 person using a bitcoin or some unknown coin it's value is 0, the more users there are the more valuable it becomes. I guess the added value of bitcoin comes from utility just like any currency, but IMO it's better because it has many other aspects compared to traditional fiat currency.
Gov can make currency digital too and outlaw bitcoin, so it's nothing special and the value of its utility is actually worthless because it won't be unique in this regard. The price someone pays is speculation.

Infact Bitcoin is actually illegal because it goes behind all laws and framework. So expect gov to ban once they find out how much fraud, tax cheating and drug money/ laundering is going on.
Last edited by Jungle on Dec 6th, 2017 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
Jungle wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:01 pm
Gov can make currency digital too and outlaw bitcoin, so it's nothing special and the value of its utility is actually worthless. The price someone pays is speculation.
Any one can make any currencty digital, unless you have cash under your mattress, it is already digital!

but the key that it's decentralized, the day that government makes it decentralized, i'll sell all my coins and buy this government backed decentralized currency.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:02 pm
Any one can make any currencty digital, unless you have cash under your mattress, it is already digital!

but the key that it's decentralized, the day that government makes it decentralized, i'll sell all my coins and buy this government backed decentralized currency.
The problem is it doesn't count unless its backed by the gov. That's why stores still won't accept my monopoly money . And because there is no safeguard or regulation on exchanges, if a major change comes likely everything will crash you will have no liquidity, nothing as the whole world tries to get out.

Just wait until this futures thing starts I can't see why the seizure won't start.
Sr. Member
Dec 23, 2010
686 posts
243 upvotes
Ottawa
Jungle wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:53 pm
My favourite comment from Greaterfool yesterday, # 22

Fun Fact: There are about 355,000 lines of C++ code in the bitcoin repository. Given that a very good coder can produce around 100 lines of code per day thats 9.7 person years of work assuming you work 365 days per year. There is no way bitcoin was created in response to the financial terrorist attacks of 2007-2008. I bet my bottom dollar Bitcoin was created by Goldman Sachs for the sole purpose of shorting it and further fleecing the mindless sheep rushing to get rich quick.

lol why do I have a feeling wall street is going to short the hell out of this once the futures trading is in tact? All the exchanges will crash, and bitcoin will finally be worthless. What a train wreck I see ahead.
Hearing this quack thinking Bitcoin is a bubble all of a sudden makes me doubt myself. The guy lost people hundreds of thousands on Toronto Real Estate as he was claiming it was a bubble since 2007 despite there being plenty of justification for the prices.
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
Jungle wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:07 pm
The problem is it doesn't count unless its backed by the gov. That's why stores still won't accept my monopoly money . And because there is no safeguard or regulation on exchanges, if a major change comes likely everything will crash you will have no liquidity, nothing as the whole world tries to get out.

Just wait until this futures thing starts I can't see why the seizure won't start.
Why doesn't it count? stores won't accept your monopoly money because your monopoly is centralized by yourself.
regulations may come but in many countries it is already legalized, and ever since China banned it, it only seemed to fuel it some how. For every market it won't thrive, it will thrive in few others.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 6, 2013
2213 posts
1595 upvotes
Toronto
Its funny that the all time high meme threads on reddit can't even keep up with the price increase.

The price is $13,000 USD and the top meme thread is about $12,000.

basically, by the time the $12,000 thread is upvoted enough to reach the top, the price is already $13,000.

crazy.
It's always good to be underestimated.---Donald Trump

I never downvote anyone and I try to help everyone.
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
Applesmack wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:12 pm
Hearing this quack thinking Bitcoin is a bubble all of a sudden makes me doubt myself. The guy lost people hundreds of thousands on Toronto Real Estate as he was claiming it was a bubble since 2007 despite there being plenty of justification for the prices.
Enemy of my enemy is my friend LOL!
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
Applesmack wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:12 pm
Hearing this quack thinking Bitcoin is a bubble all of a sudden makes me doubt myself. The guy lost people hundreds of thousands on Toronto Real Estate as he was claiming it was a bubble since 2007 despite there being plenty of justification for the prices.
That is true but I think there is a big difference between trading bitcoin and having somewhere to live, lol
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
TBH I think it is in the overbought territory as well, I do believe in this tech though it will do great things, and the scope it does cover is AMAZING! if it does succeed I do fell like the entire market will be in the trillions.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:12 pm
Why doesn't it count? stores won't accept your monopoly money because your monopoly is centralized by yourself.
regulations may come but in many countries it is already legalized, and ever since China banned it, it only seemed to fuel it some how. For every market it won't thrive, it will thrive in few others.
It undermines the integrity of law,regulations and policy that's why and is not accepted or backed worldwide gov.
Sr. Member
Dec 12, 2009
526 posts
25 upvotes
Jungle wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:35 pm
It undermines the integrity of law,regulations and policy that's why and is not accepted or backed worldwide gov.
First of all, WTF is the world government, we aren't living in the world of one piece here.
Governments are in fact in a constant struggle for power. Who is to say that government won't use bitcoin as a tool?
Second of all, some people like their money to deflate, some like their money to inflate, to each their own. Just because governement doesn't like it also doesn't mean they can do anything about it much like their battle with bittorrent. You cut off 1 head 3 others pop out.
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
4446 posts
1546 upvotes
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 2:47 pm
First of all, WTF is the world government, we aren't living in the world of one piece here.
Governments are in fact in a constant struggle for power. Who is to say that government won't use bitcoin as a tool?
Second of all, some people like their money to deflate, some like their money to inflate, to each their own. Just because governement doesn't like it also doesn't mean they can do anything about it much like their battle with bittorrent. You cut off 1 head 3 others pop out.
Just make it a criminal offence to conduct trade with bitcon. That was easy.
Deal Addict
User avatar
May 11, 2014
1705 posts
719 upvotes
Iqaluit, NT
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:56 pm
You typically have to have shares available from your broker FIRST before you can short sell, unless you naked shorted and got called in
YES, they were available. The problem is with shorting, shares can also become unavailable during a short.
xuemike wrote:
Dec 6th, 2017 1:56 pm

As far as the price rise, it's more about how many users there are right now in the system. I mean if only 1 person using a bitcoin or some unknown coin it's value is 0, the more users there are the more valuable it becomes. I guess the added value of bitcoin comes from utility just like any currency, but IMO it's better because it has many other aspects compared to traditional fiat currency.
The problem with bitcoin is that it isn't unique in anyway whatsoever to many other blockchain currencies out there. These sudden increases in value decreases the utility of bitcoin in general as a currency as it makes it harder for people to value the currency. So when that happens, people will utilize other currencies. Even if bitcoins are limited in it's issuance, doesn't mean that an identical in structure blockchain currency can also be issued. This in itself increases the volume of blockchain currency in general, undermining the value of Bitcoins. Bitcoins are not unique enough to maintain it's value. Hence why it cannot be considered equivalent to most commodities or currencies.
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