Real Estate

DOW vs TSX vs Toronto Real Estate

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 25th, 2018 12:54 pm
[OP]
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Dec 13, 2016
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DOW vs TSX vs Toronto Real Estate

What's going to fall more in the next 12 months?
9 replies
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
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Toronto
I always go on and on about not timing the market but I am holding a lot of liquidity banking on a stock fall lol. Sold a rental property and am just milking a HISA until I can get a discount on the DOW.
[OP]
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Dec 13, 2016
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My guess October 24th 2019 Dow -20% TSX - 25% Toronto real estate -5%
Sr. Member
Mar 20, 2017
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2 weeks ago I was betting that this time it is a real stock crash with dotcom bubble scenario. Today people started to accept this point of view.
This one is full scale, 50% down for 1-2 years.
Housing will struggle at first, when USD becomes overvalued, but because housing is not even nearly as responsive as stocks and because government already deflated housing at some extent, it will survive.
After 1-2 years the actions of central banks would cause massive inflation and housing will heavily win from that, and BoC rates would be also much lower than today, making it easy to pay mortgage.

The key indicator was who is going to crash first - housing or stocks. Housing survived, stocks haven't. The one that survives, gets all the benefits from soft BoC actions.
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
BiegeToyota wrote:
Oct 24th, 2018 9:15 pm
What's going to fall more in the next 12 months?
see below
Last edited by asa1973 on Oct 25th, 2018 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
BiegeToyota wrote:
Oct 24th, 2018 9:15 pm
What's going to fall more in the next 12 months?
Really stupid question, sorry. Until you want to make a rooster of local permabears :)

My bet is no one. All 3 pf them wold be positive in one year, +- market volatility.

Both TSX and DOW will do fine, I do not see any reason for those apocalyptic -50% fall scenarios someone think would happen.
Secondly, you're comparing apples with nuts (e.g. stock market vs housing market). You could not live in ENB or AAPL shares, while you can do live in a house. Even if it's "market value" will drop 50% that have zero effect if you bought it as a shelter, not as investment.

As far as local region has POSITIVE influx of people, LOCAL RE would see positive gains (historically ~ inflation rate + correction on improving quality of life, as current homes are about 2x times bigger they used to be 20y ago)
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
[OP]
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Dec 13, 2016
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asa1973 wrote:
Oct 25th, 2018 10:01 am

Secondly, you're comparing apples with nuts (e.g. stock market vs housing market).
So what? It's rfd, the pinnacle of repetitive topics posted by boring people.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 11, 2008
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Technically should not matter as both should be long term pricing. And both will be up long term anyways.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
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Never bet against Toronto real estate, especially when you use leverage and someone else is paying off the mortgAge
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
BiegeToyota wrote:
Oct 25th, 2018 10:42 am
So what? It's rfd, the pinnacle of repetitive topics posted by boring people.
I see, you do get the delivery of that one legal from Oct 18th :)
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!

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