• Last Updated:
  • Jan 21st, 2018 2:04 am
Tags:
None
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes

FB - Facebook

No FB thread surprisingly!
It's a great stock to trade often, very liquid and spreads are tight.
It's currently on sale around $25 (25.3). Expecting FB to stay at or above 25 for the next 2-3 weeks. Then continue down...
172 replies
Sr. Member
User avatar
Feb 25, 2012
627 posts
178 upvotes
SCARBOROUGH
On what basis do you expect it to stay above $25 for the next 3 weeks then trade down? Any catalysts that the market is not aware of?
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes
AntonyLingo wrote:
Mar 26th, 2013 10:47 am
On what basis do you expect it to stay above $25 for the next 3 weeks then trade down? Any catalysts that the market is not aware of?
Stocks trade within 1 standard deviation most of the time (68% to be exact). FB already moved 2 std deviations, it's getting oversold, needs time to rest. So the move in FB already happened, there is a chance it will keep moving down, but it's only 4%. I would trade 96% probability any day.

IV is currently 36%, not rich, but decent to sell puts
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 29, 2011
1062 posts
391 upvotes
Grimsby
I'm curious, you seem very knowledgable in the subject of investing.

What has been your average return of the past 10 years?
The worst part about prison was the Dementors. - Michael Scott

My Basement Reno Project
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes
aprofetto wrote:
Mar 26th, 2013 11:03 am
I'm curious, you seem very knowledgable in the subject of investing.

What has been your average return of the past 10 years?
Lets just say I'm not a pro and lost 1+ account to get where I'm now. My knowledge comes from experience, I know what not to do, and this list grows every day. By changing my ways of doing business, I changed my returns. No numbers, sorry, I'll not boast as there is still a lot to learn.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 29, 2011
1062 posts
391 upvotes
Grimsby
dlhunter wrote:
Mar 26th, 2013 11:20 am
Lets just say I'm not a pro and lost 1+ account to get where I'm now. My knowledge comes from experience, I know what not to do, and this list grows every day. By changing my ways of doing business, I changed my returns. No numbers, sorry, I'll not boast as there is still a lot to learn.
I see.
The worst part about prison was the Dementors. - Michael Scott

My Basement Reno Project
Deal Addict
User avatar
Apr 30, 2012
2708 posts
1328 upvotes
Montreal
I wouldn't touch FB with a bamboo chopstick. Not attractive.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes
FB is an interesting short term play atm. Buying at 23.5 for 1.2 gain in the next 2 weeks.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 14, 2010
4534 posts
3613 upvotes
dlhunter wrote:
Mar 26th, 2013 10:58 am
Stocks trade within 1 standard deviation most of the time (68% to be exact). FB already moved 2 std deviations, it's getting oversold, needs time to rest. So the move in FB already happened, there is a chance it will keep moving down, but it's only 4%. I would trade 96% probability any day.

IV is currently 36%, not rich, but decent to sell puts
True, RSI is around 27, and historically it reverted up when approached these numbers. But if you draw a rising channel line since September, it broke down, so it should touch $20 before testing up again. I'd sell $20 puts instead of ATM.

Rod
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes
rodbarc wrote:
May 29th, 2013 12:59 pm
True, RSI is around 27, and historically it reverted up when approached these numbers. But if you draw a rising channel line since September, it broke down, so it should touch $20 before testing up again. I'd sell $20 puts instead of ATM.

Rod
June OPEX is generally bullish (3-x witching). Even though FB was moving in reverse to the market, it has reached a point where it's oversold. I don't expect much, just a re-test of 24.8-25 region before moving to 20.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Feb 11, 2009
16079 posts
2052 upvotes
Toronto
coachpotatoarmchairQB wrote:
May 30th, 2013 12:27 am
how can you tell it will gain in 2 weeks?
He/she can't...they're just predicting...saying that, I purchased FB.
Current Offer: AMEX with $400 (or 40k Aeroplan Miles) Sign Up Bonus + First Year Free
Jr. Member
Aug 12, 2006
111 posts
8 upvotes
i'd avoid this stock unless you plan to short it. too many issues in terms of future revenue sources, future innovation i.e. products/services and their market being saturated with little growth left to mine. some article came out a week ago that listed people are starting to move on from facebook and we all know eventually some new fad will come along to replace facebook.
Deal Addict
Jul 22, 2008
3854 posts
372 upvotes
Not even going to consider buying this until it's below $20. Will add it to my watchlist if it goes below $16-18 per share. Still in the infant stages of its monetization strategy, not enough track record to be able to see if it will/can become the next Google-type company, and MZ having significant control of the company in terms of voting shares is not attractive, especially if a management shakeup is necessary or activists see the company moving in a better/more profitable direction. Full disclosure, I do not own any shares or options in the stock and the only reason I would consider it <$20 is because I am a long-term investor and dislike constant monitoring of stocks (buying/selling).
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 14, 2010
4534 posts
3613 upvotes
FB pre-market up 2.92% to $24. Either my $20 put or Dlhunter's $23 put could be closed for a nice profit today. Being upgraded to Buy vs Hold by Jefferies and outperform by BMO Capital Markets helped.

Will sell call spread if it attempts to test $20. It's a fad anyway.

Rod
[OP]
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
3624 posts
727 upvotes
I'm not a guru by any means. I'm long stock and short puts (J23) that I'll be looking to take off depending on the first 5/15 min open price action. If FB takes out 5/15 min to the upside, my original target 24.5-24.8 still in play. It must not fall below 23.8...

Edit: SLD shares @ 24.4

Top