Real Estate

GTA house prices, will be going even higher?

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  • Aug 22nd, 2017 7:03 pm
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Apr 9, 2006
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daivey wrote:
Aug 6th, 2016 8:47 am
a lot of houses closing under asking, with a few rarities closing above asking..... however July/August is usually slower period. We will see what happens with September. But I think we've actually reached peak as price acceleration has significantly slowed down since April/May/June.
Supply continues to spiral downward... it will just mean prices will remain elevated (for now).

Toronto real estate listings drop 32 per cent in July
I just like to collect things! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Burlington, ON
GiOBoY wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 11:25 am
]Toronto real estate listings drop 32 per cent in July
YoY or to June?

I "love" those doomers "analysis" like on greaterfool blog about crash is coming because listings dropped in July - and it's for sure all due to new tax/scared sellers went away/....just "forgetting" about seasonality (and even same month yoy also have the jitter)

So far I do not see the "fundamentals" for price crash in GTA - do we started build 2x more homes or we have -100k yearly population decrease? None of above...
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Jan 20, 2016
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and sales are up...

Last July there were 9813 sales and this July there were 9989.

Year-Over-Year Summary
2016 2015 % Chg.
Sales
New Listings
Active Listings
Average Price
Average DOM
9,989 9,813 1.8%
13,542 14,625 -7.4%
11,346 16,673 -31.9%
$709,825 $608,875 16.6%
16 22 -27.3%

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... mw1607.pdf
[OP]
Sr. Member
Oct 18, 2013
532 posts
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Brampton
people will always say "A crash is coming" nothing is coming, this is how its going to be. It might get stuck at no growth but i dont see any possibility of an absolute "crash"
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2010
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All most people should be thinking is, what if it goes down. It's the same story with interest rates, it can only go up or be stagnate but not any lower. Real estate already had its good run. With economies around the world getting low growth, it's only a matter of time before its drop or stagnate.
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Feb 9, 2009
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Bluemist1967 wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 2:39 pm
people will always say "A crash is coming" nothing is coming, this is how its going to be. It might get stuck at no growth but i dont see any possibility of an absolute "crash"
America in 2007 says hi!
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asa1973 wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 12:51 pm
GiOBoY wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 11:25 am
]Toronto real estate listings drop 32 per cent in July
YoY or to June?

I "love" those doomers "analysis" like on greaterfool blog about crash is coming because listings dropped in July - and it's for sure all due to new tax/scared sellers went away/....just "forgetting" about seasonality (and even same month yoy also have the jitter)

So far I do not see the "fundamentals" for price crash in GTA - do we started build 2x more homes or we have -100k yearly population decrease? None of above...
Most likely YoY, either way you look at it, supply is down.

There are a few fools calling for a crash so SPECTACULAR it will put the US housing crash to shame! haha

SOURCE: Chinese Media Warns Canada’s Housing Crash Will Put U.S. To Shame

For me, I don't believe anything that is sourced from the Chinese Media - so take it with a grain of salt and pepper. :lol:
I just like to collect things! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Sanyo wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 10:49 pm


America in 2007 says hi!
I know your addiction to see RE crash ;) but this is not even close. Check how many sub-prime mortgages we have like it was in USA-2007 (close to zero), what the average downpayment (it's more then 5% in most cases)
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asa1973 wrote:
Aug 10th, 2016 10:17 am
Sanyo wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 10:49 pm


America in 2007 says hi!
I know your addiction to see RE crash ;) but this is not even close. Check how many sub-prime mortgages we have like it was in USA-2007 (close to zero), what the average downpayment (it's more then 5% in most cases)
+1

NINJA + Lots of job losses in the US and that was likely the main factor. Mortgage interest rate before Subprime was likely in 5-6%

Damages to pricing in the US were in the fringes. Prime properties were not affected as much. Of course, the numbers along the fringes were reflected in the data/numbers.

As for Florida, it was also mainly the condo toxic particle board scare that was circulating in the media around the time of the crisis.

Not sure about Nevada but maybe high quality jobs are scarcer?

-----

Then I found out about how rising interest rates doesn't portent a decrease in R/E so maybe there is really some more room to run though I'm not banking on it.

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgag ... rices.aspx
https://www.integratedmortgageplanners. ... se-prices/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly ... f82627a978
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor. ... me-prices/
Penalty Box
Apr 16, 2012
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Greely
Sanyo wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 10:49 pm
Bluemist1967 wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 2:39 pm
people will always say "A crash is coming" nothing is coming, this is how its going to be. It might get stuck at no growth but i dont see any possibility of an absolute "crash"
America in 2007 says hi!
You've been predicting a crash since like 2009...what kind of gains have you missed thus far?

I think if real estate crashed 40% today, you would be ahead still had you bought in 2009
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Jul 21, 2007
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Sanyo wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 10:49 pm
Bluemist1967 wrote:
Aug 9th, 2016 2:39 pm
people will always say "A crash is coming" nothing is coming, this is how its going to be. It might get stuck at no growth but i dont see any possibility of an absolute "crash"
America in 2007 says hi!
How many strippers in Canada own 5 homes with mortgages? Is that even possible here?
Member
Jan 10, 2016
313 posts
33 upvotes
Markham, ON
Historically speaking, real estate bubble takes a decade or 2 to implode. So, I believe the inflation of the bubble started in 2005 or something. Slap 20 years into it, we will see price appreciation until 2025. so folks, we still have 9 more years of prosperity.
Year 2025 will be a stretch (so is 20 years), so the implosion will happen sometimes before year 2025.

Who's with me on this one?


Here comes the booo's.
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Feb 29, 2008
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The reality is I don't see prices dropping. There is not enough product in Toronto. I was having this conversation with my mother. She's been thinking of selling for several years now and prices of houses have gotten so ridiculous, she sees no point in selling now. She's going to take some equity out of her house and renovate it.

I think this is something we're seeing with more home owners in Toronto. There is too much cost incurred in selling and moving to a new home. In Toronto of all places, there is the stress of getting into a bidding war, and now people are putting down offers without any conditions... Not to mention the high cost of double land transfer taxes. You also have to pay the agents 5%. Instead of going through all that, why not just reno your house for the price it would cost to move?

Here's something I read in Toronto Life:
http://torontolife.com/real-estate/hous ... ill-north/

This couple were living in the husband's parent's condo....saved up $120K. Both parents provided an additonal $80K. They ended up purchasing a $1.3M house after having an original budget half of that.

You better have some bank if you want to buy a house in the city. Having a good paying job is not enough. I'm happy I got into the market when I did because I would have 0 hope now of buying a house in the city...

Prices will continue to climb as long as there is a shortage of housing. That shortage is being created by the government.
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
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Burlington, ON
ValueInvestor wrote:
Aug 12th, 2016 10:38 am
Historically speaking, real estate bubble takes a decade or 2 to implode. So, I believe the inflation of the bubble started in 2005 or something. Slap 20 years into it, we will see price appreciation until 2025. so folks, we still have 9 more years of prosperity.
Year 2025 will be a stretch (so is 20 years), so the implosion will happen sometimes before year 2025.

Who's with me on this one?


Here comes the booo's.
and in 2025 it will fall to 2020 level which is +25% to 2016? ;)
with this train of demand we need intensive construction of NEW homes, not the peanuts of ~300 (~1500 person) properties per year in 160k city with 5% population growth yoy (~7000 NEW person each year) during last 5 years...
The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 68 per cent of Ontario's net population growth to 2041. The GTA's population is projected to increase from 6.6 million in 2015 to almost 9.5 million in 2041.

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