Real Estate

Locked: GTA housing market 2017 forcast

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  • Oct 28th, 2016 10:49 am
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Oct 25, 2016
48 posts
58 upvotes

GTA housing market 2017 forcast

What people on this forum think about he market in 2017?
Not by emotions but my facts and number
41 replies
Deal Addict
Jul 6, 2005
4451 posts
2139 upvotes
Toronto
Recently, I'm finding in my area (North Whitby) that resale houses are taking at least 2-4 weeks to sell, and sometimes after a price reduction of up to $50K), whereas earlier this year and this time last year (when I sold/bought my Whitby houses) houses were selling in a week or less (2 weeks being the absolute most) was common place.

it could be the time of the year, but last September/October market in Whitby was insane with bidding wars all over the place, no matter the price segment.

The resale homes in my neighbourhood have been selling in the $800K to $1.3M range, and feel that it may plateau around that price-point heading into 2017 looking at the current trend. I'll be absolutely floored if I see new record pricing in Whitby next spring. I find that houses in Brooklin are getting their asking price or just slightly below, but rarely above asking price these days.
Member
Aug 11, 2016
498 posts
152 upvotes
Repooc wrote: Recently, I'm finding in my area (North Whitby) that resale houses are taking at least 2-4 weeks to sell, and sometimes after a price reduction of up to $50K), whereas earlier this year and this time last year (when I sold/bought my Whitby houses) houses were selling in a week or less (2 weeks being the absolute most) was common place.

it could be the time of the year, but last September/October market in Whitby was insane with bidding wars all over the place, no matter the price segment.

The resale homes in my neighbourhood have been selling in the $800K to $1.3M range, and feel that it may plateau around that price-point heading into 2017 looking at the current trend. I'll be absolutely floored if I see new record pricing in Whitby next spring. I find that houses in Brooklin are getting their asking price or just slightly below, but rarely above asking price these days.
Yeah the problems is seller expectations are sky high these days, asking prices in Brooklin and North Oshawa are nearing $900k to $1mil, coupled that with the temporary uncertainties over the new mortgage rules, seasonality factors, are making the DOM longer and SNLR lower in the coming month until next March when prices would take off again, it's been a reoccurring scene...
Deal Addict
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Jan 5, 2003
3799 posts
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Unless they stop immigration to GTA, start building more homes next year, and raise borrowing costs significantly prices will be up again.
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is still there... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
Flavour wrote: Unless they stop immigration to GTA, start building more homes next year, and raise borrowing costs significantly prices will be up again.
a) not all immigrants come to Toronto (believe it or not) and not all of them have money to buy property -- many of them have to rent to start with minimal job prospects (these arent your typical American immigrants with more strict requirements).
b) Go to many builders sites and they have multiple communities coming up they are building out -- we are seeing them go more north than ever in Newmarket and north.. unlimited space up there to build.
c) granted borrowing costs may not go up significantly anytime soon, but the act to get a mortgage will get tougher and tougher -- all it has to to do is have some announcement from CMHC that they will temporarily suspend insuring mortgages, increasing the insurance amount, create cap gains for foreigners, another foreigner tax, etc lots of potential now for this market to drop

and that fool poloz can come out tomorrow and cut rates again, if cmhc says "no thanks" to insuring or as they may ask the banks to require taking some of the hit on bad mortgages on insured mortgages, this will be a different ballgame.
Deal Expert
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Mar 9, 2007
15618 posts
13276 upvotes
Think of the Childre…
Oh Magic ball, is the housing market going to crash in 2017?

Image

WOULD SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2007
1373 posts
664 upvotes
North York
Prices will still go up but at a slower pace for sure. Sellers have become VERY greedy in my area and most listings are taking longer to sell (I am at Bayview village North York).

http://27windham.com
This one is asking way too much since most 50x120 lots in my area goes for 2 (under 1500sqf) to 2.5mil (2500sqf)...it's just a street down from me.
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
4050 upvotes
Toronto
greed is rampant everyone thinks their home is worth $1 mill minimum.. doesn't matter how much of a shit hole it is.. Scary thought.
Deal Addict
Nov 27, 2007
3678 posts
820 upvotes
You have to wait for america to raise rates and as it goes up , canada goes into inflation. Then it is cach 22, we are damn if we don't increase rates or decrease rates. If interest rate in Canada doesn't follow states, all other items increase in value, pay mortgage or buy food? Blah blah blah, eventually house market will collapse there are no fundamentals to keep it high other than low interest rate and government backed loans.

But you should buy a house asap, there is nothing like a raising asset that never goes down, and with its increasing value you can secured LOC, and buy stuff. That is the positive
Deal Fanatic
Jan 15, 2004
7631 posts
2175 upvotes
No doubt the new rules will impact the increase in price, but I think detached houses will continue to be in demand given the cities are all increasing the density (more condo and townhouses). I doubt if we will see material increase in rate in the next couple years. Unless there are some unforeseeable and significant stress to the economy, I agree that the housing price will just soft land instead of crashes.
Deal Addict
Feb 14, 2010
1024 posts
1063 upvotes
Toronto
I'm 100% sure we will not see 20% - 30% price increases yoy in 2017. My guess is around 10% for detached; reason being we just aren't building them fast enough with the increase in our population. There are still many dual high income earners/rich immigrants in the GTA to support the market as we see fewer and fewer homeowners sell their gold mine. As always this is just my guess and every location in the GTA will experience something different.
Last edited by thelastword on Oct 27th, 2016 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Mar 31, 2008
13010 posts
3095 upvotes
Toronto
Afv1234 wrote:
Repooc wrote: Recently, I'm finding in my area (North Whitby) that resale houses are taking at least 2-4 weeks to sell, and sometimes after a price reduction of up to $50K), whereas earlier this year and this time last year (when I sold/bought my Whitby houses) houses were selling in a week or less (2 weeks being the absolute most) was common place.

it could be the time of the year, but last September/October market in Whitby was insane with bidding wars all over the place, no matter the price segment.

The resale homes in my neighbourhood have been selling in the $800K to $1.3M range, and feel that it may plateau around that price-point heading into 2017 looking at the current trend. I'll be absolutely floored if I see new record pricing in Whitby next spring. I find that houses in Brooklin are getting their asking price or just slightly below, but rarely above asking price these days.
Yeah the problems is seller expectations are sky high these days, asking prices in Brooklin and North Oshawa are nearing $900k to $1mil, coupled that with the temporary uncertainties over the new mortgage rules, seasonality factors, are making the DOM longer and SNLR lower in the coming month until next March when prices would take off again, it's been a reoccurring scene...
This appears to also be happening in Scarborough (south of 401) as bungalows which sky rocketed to the 650K-700k range have been sitting for alot longer (from the brief sample tracking I've been doing). I'm quite certain alot of minorities who are the primary market didn't have 20% and alot also have small business income which hurts them. The types selling the houses too have priced it quite high too from what I can see, hoping it will fund their retirement or whatever else choice they make.

So now you have a pool of people who have 120+k of purchasing power gone immediately while house prices remain under the old rule expectations. So you're going to have house prices sitting longer.. reductions (from listing highs) and alot of re-listings. A smaller hunch I have is certain areas where it was popular with investors (Chinese) have slowed down too since the BC tax has likely made them lose a bit of confidence in Canada.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jan 5, 2003
3799 posts
463 upvotes
Sanyo wrote:
Flavour wrote: Unless they stop immigration to GTA, start building more homes next year, and raise borrowing costs significantly prices will be up again.
a) not all immigrants come to Toronto (believe it or not) and not all of them have money to buy property -- many of them have to rent to start with minimal job prospects (these arent your typical American immigrants with more strict requirements).
b) Go to many builders sites and they have multiple communities coming up they are building out -- we are seeing them go more north than ever in Newmarket and north.. unlimited space up there to build.
c) granted borrowing costs may not go up significantly anytime soon, but the act to get a mortgage will get tougher and tougher -- all it has to to do is have some announcement from CMHC that they will temporarily suspend insuring mortgages, increasing the insurance amount, create cap gains for foreigners, another foreigner tax, etc lots of potential now for this market to drop

and that fool poloz can come out tomorrow and cut rates again, if cmhc says "no thanks" to insuring or as they may ask the banks to require taking some of the hit on bad mortgages on insured mortgages, this will be a different ballgame.
a) population increase for GTA will be a minimum of 100k for the next 25 years according to the government
b) yes, they are building houses, just less of them. the government is pushing high density not detached homes. thus they are only slowly allowing that land to be developed.
c) this is the easiest time to get a cheap mortgage ever. fiddling with a few minor rules here and there will not make a dent.
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is still there... every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Apr 9, 2006
10593 posts
15784 upvotes
GT-EH
thelastword wrote: I'm 100% sure we will not 20% - 30% price increases yoy in 2017. My guess is around 10% for detached; reason being we just aren't building them fast enough with the increase in our population. There are still many dual high income earners/rich immigrants in the GTA to support the market as we see fewer and fewer homeowners seller their gold mine. As always this is just my guess and every location in the GTA will experience something different.
My prediction is between 5-10% for the detached market in 2017.

Of course we could be in for a shocker if we see another 15-20% YoY by May/June. :lol:
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Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
It's been 4 years since the start of the Vancouver Bubble thread. Those who didn't buy back then because "bubble," are so screwed right now they may as well move to the East Coast.

Paging all the doomers. Where you at?
Deal Addict
Jul 6, 2005
4451 posts
2139 upvotes
Toronto
Anikiri wrote: It's been 4 years since the start of the Vancouver Bubble thread. Those who didn't buy back then because "bubble," are so screwed right now they may as well move to the East Coast.

Paging all the doomers. Where you at?
HOLY CRAP.... you're still alive Anikiri?!?
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
Repooc wrote:
Anikiri wrote: It's been 4 years since the start of the Vancouver Bubble thread. Those who didn't buy back then because "bubble," are so screwed right now they may as well move to the East Coast.

Paging all the doomers. Where you at?
HOLY CRAP.... you're still alive Anikiri?!?

I have (had) a pact with Ceryx that if he doesn't post here then I won't either. Well I just broke it.

I've done a great service to this forum with self sacrifice, but sadly now Ceryx will be back.
Deal Addict
Jul 6, 2005
4451 posts
2139 upvotes
Toronto
Anikiri wrote:
Repooc wrote:
Anikiri wrote: It's been 4 years since the start of the Vancouver Bubble thread. Those who didn't buy back then because "bubble," are so screwed right now they may as well move to the East Coast.

Paging all the doomers. Where you at?
HOLY CRAP.... you're still alive Anikiri?!?

I have (had) a pact with Ceryx that if he doesn't post here then I won't either. Well I just broke it.

I've done a great service to this forum with self sacrifice, but sadly now Ceryx will be back.
LOL..... "dis gon' be gud". Getting my popcorn machine ready.

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