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HCG.T - Home capital Group

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  • Sep 12th, 2017 2:43 pm
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[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes

HCG.T - Home capital Group

Stock down 30% down in last 2 weeks now at $29.87 down from all time high of $55.94 the company financial look good according to analysts but the company states the residential mortgage originations for the second quarter of 2015 were down - Rating “recommendation“ by all the 9 analysts that covering this stock is “mean” BUY according to Thomson Reuters
1 Strong Buy
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Under perforn
zero sell

mean BUY

this a good summary of the stock by DGI&R

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandre ... purchased/

also

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandre ... -analysis/
1831 replies
Jr. Member
Oct 31, 2014
159 posts
46 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
Something tells me those guys simply havent updated their "rating"

I have a small piece, getting now is better than getting in 2 weeks ago :-)

still think it's risky
[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes
S&P Quality Ranking : A+ - info from the daily report at td direct invest. account
Deal Addict
Oct 1, 2006
1635 posts
565 upvotes
Montreal
Looks like someone bought way too much of this stock ;)
Member
Aug 26, 2009
411 posts
54 upvotes
Toronto
I won't be surprised if it starts trading in the teens. If you see the price action after a swift 25% correction following pre announcement of results, one would've expected for buyers to emerge or at least consolidate in the range of 31-32. but it hasn't and it is continuously drifting lower. Considering we have a raging bull RE market in Toronto where HCG originates majority of their loans, missing on loan origination number by $600M should tell you something. Plus, B/S is just cooked.

disc: I'm short.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 28, 2007
2439 posts
530 upvotes
Whitehorse, YT
agit wrote:
Jul 26th, 2015 3:14 pm
Stock down 30% down in last 2 weeks now at $29.87 down from all time high of $55.94 the company financial look good according to analysts but the company states the residential mortgage originations for the second quarter of 2015 were down - Rating “recommendation“ by all the 9 analysts that covering this stock is “mean” BUY according to Thomson Reuters
1 Strong Buy
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Under perforn
zero sell

mean BUY

this a good summary of the stock by DGI&R

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandre ... purchased/

also

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandre ... -analysis/
There may be no analyst rating it as a SELL but then analysts do not often issue SELL recommendations. They bias to the BUY side.

The issue with HCG is whether there will be a burst of the real estate bubble. If that risk materializes, HCG could be insolvent.
[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes
Marzipan wrote:
Jul 27th, 2015 12:07 pm
There may be no analyst rating it as a SELL but then analysts do not often issue SELL recommendations. They bias to the BUY side.

The issue with HCG is whether there will be a burst of the real estate bubble. If that risk materializes, HCG could be insolvent.
lets see is that mean all Canadian bank could be insolvent???

here are the number

in 2014 that the average LTV ratio of uninsured residential mortgages originated during the year was 73.7%, and the average for all uninsured residential mortgages was 67.8%.

the Canadian banks to get an idea of what LTV ratios they had for loans originated in the year.


TD 70%
BNS 62%
CIBC 65%
RY 73%
HCG 74%
[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes
if anyone is following the development of HCG.t

per bnn.ca Kevin O’Leary, Chairman of the O’Leary Financial Group joins BNN to discuss the housing bears shorting the market, why he doesn’t see a collapse in Canada’s housing market, and why millennials should keep renting for the next few years.

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=666253
Member
Aug 26, 2009
411 posts
54 upvotes
Toronto
Its taking a dump again. I must say I got extremely lucky with the timing of this short. Shorted a week before pre announcement. Next 2 days will be fun.
Member
Aug 26, 2009
411 posts
54 upvotes
Toronto
agit wrote:
Jul 28th, 2015 10:23 am
this has nothing to do with the stock down he simply "retired"
Sure, just as CFO "retired/moved on" late last year, CRO "retired/moved on" in Jan and sr. financial exec "retired/moved on" in May.
Member
User avatar
Oct 27, 2003
290 posts
41 upvotes
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e25715455/

Former hedge fund manager using HCG to short the Canadian real estate market.

Interesting as this is one of the first instances in the MSM I have read the phrase 'money laundering' in reference to the Vancouver real estate market. Transparently obvious to those that live here, and a massive driver of market inflation, however none of the the news services seem interested in covering it.
[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes
Gursk wrote:
Jul 28th, 2015 7:54 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e25715455/

Former hedge fund manager using HCG to short the Canadian real estate market.

Interesting as this is one of the first instances in the MSM I have read the phrase 'money laundering' in reference to the Vancouver real estate market. Transparently obvious to those that live here, and a massive driver of market inflation, however none of the the news services seem interested in covering it.
+
[OP]
Member
Jan 23, 2009
456 posts
138 upvotes
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e25715455/

In above article the Former hedge fund manager said the following:
Calling Vancouver’s booming real estate market “a mix of money laundering, speculation [and] low interest rates.”
Also:
That was until this summer, when Mr. Cohodes suddenly emerged as one of the most vocal critics of Canada’s housing market. While he no longer runs a hedge fund, he is actively making short bets with his own money. He has made several trips to Canada’s largest cities in the past year, walking the streets early in the morning to count the number of lights on in newly built housing as a way to gauge occupancy rates. The most common criticism of American U.S. investors who bet against Canadian real estate is that they erroneously consider Canada to be a smaller version of what the U.S


http://business.financialpost.com/inves ... esignation

then today in the above article he said the following:

“I’m not short Canada’s banks, I’m not short the housing market, I’m short Home Capital Group and I have been for a while,” he said. “There are a lot of questions around what happened with their brokers and I think they handled disclosing that information poorly.”

WOW in 5 days went from short the housing market using his own money to "I’m not short the housing market" he finally understand the CMHC and 10 to 20% down payment unlike the USA in 2008 zero down payment and the mortgage interest payment only

the only hope for HCG investors is that the issue of what happened with the terminated brokers and how deep any potential problems with Home Capital might be

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