Real Estate

Housing and Condo Market is currently CRASHING and BURNING

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[OP]
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Dec 8, 2007
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Housing and Condo Market is currently CRASHING and BURNING

Condo sales drop 20.5 per cent and price growth flattens
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/127225 ... h-flattens

Home sales fall 15% in a year
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/127165 ... -in-a-year


The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts, I mean, forecast economic direction and determine organizational strategy ...... and if theyve all been adjusting their policies significantly over the past 6 months - news flash - Brad Lamb and the Real Estate Crony crew have been lying to you.

Now, I wonder how quickly Ten York sales will go considering I've received 5 emails from brokers about a VIP event that they all some how have exclusive access too - wtf I'm not even signed up to their email lists. Spam. Anyways, there are bets going on over at UrbanToronto.com about how badly certain projects will do
Mark77 wrote:"All aspiring students should go into the financial services - engineering is, and always has been, a poor choice for our brightest minds ... and TodayHello is my Hero ..."
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Jul 7, 2007
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wake me up when the price actually drops. To an average consumer. if I see the prices still going up ,there's really no incentive for me to buy.
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Jul 14, 2008
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I got an email on the 10 York too
[OP]
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kingofwale wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:12 pm
wake me up when the price actually drops. To an average consumer. if I see the prices still going up ,there's really no incentive for me to buy.
They are. Some rookie agents are posting new listings on the SAME properties at reduced prices before removing the old ones lol ....... $529k down to $470k???? Yeah, I saw that :lol:
wouwou wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:24 pm
I got an email on the 10 York too
What the hell is it with these guys ...... and theyre all degenerate sleezy types too
Mark77 wrote:"All aspiring students should go into the financial services - engineering is, and always has been, a poor choice for our brightest minds ... and TodayHello is my Hero ..."
Hydropwnics wrote:"TodayHello is a certified hustler and original gangster."
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Jun 26, 2011
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Markham
kingofwale wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:12 pm
wake me up when the price actually drops. To an average consumer. if I see the prices still going up ,there's really no incentive for me to buy.
+1. Who is going to fill all of these condos in Toronto? Wouldn't mind grabbing one once the prices plummet.
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Jan 3, 2009
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RolandCouch wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 10:33 pm
+1. Who is going to fill all of these condos in Toronto? Wouldn't mind grabbing one once the prices plummet.
It'll still cost a pretty penny.
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Jun 26, 2011
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niroopg wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 10:37 pm
It'll still cost a pretty penny.
Depends on what you consider a pretty penny. At some point in the next 5 years I expect condo prices in TO to take a serious hit.
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Dec 11, 2010
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niroopg wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 10:37 pm
It'll still cost a pretty penny.
Hopefully 40% less five years from now. That means a $500k condo will be $300k. Still a fair bit (out of the price range of many people), but at least affordable with two incomes.
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Oct 27, 2007
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Wake me up when the PRICE drops 15-20%
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Feb 9, 2009
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Stupidity is the government who kept approving every joe blow builder with a permit to build a condo.

Should just stop right now handing permits to anybody and try to get the current inventory sold before approving any more permits.
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May 30, 2012
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Not convinced yet....price will plateau first...and thats not happening yet
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Feb 9, 2009
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If prices start to crash, government can just extend amortization again -- 30 years, 35 years, 40 years, 100 years -- or get Asian investors to not pay capital gains tax...whatever they can to make real estate prices climb again.

Its a cycle. Down cycle to start for 3-4 years, then we'll see stablization and up movement. The States was hammered in places of 50% and now about 5 years later we're seeing some stability and prices up about 15% in some markets. Smart money got in 2009/2010. The hunter getting in now. The mass gets in 2-4 years from now and creates another bubble -- smart money gets out at that time and will come to Canada and buy.

Its so simple, yet for most people just so complicated to understand.
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Sanyo wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 11:24 pm
If prices start to crash, government can just extend amortization again -- 30 years, 35 years, 40 years, 100 years -- or get Asian investors to not pay capital gains tax...whatever they can to make real estate prices climb again.
No, once a bubble peaks and pops, there is very little evidence, particularly in the United States, that governments can reflate popped bubbles. After all, bubbles pop because of overcapacity, and overcapacity takes a long time to go away. Government efforts to prop up bubbles actually make the ensuing crashes and the bottoms even more severe than the base case of no intervention.

There is an incredible proportion of Canada's economy devoted to the business of housing construction, and supply to the housing construction sector. Huge amounts of fixed investment. These people simply can't/won't walk away from their investments.


Its a cycle. Down cycle to start for 3-4 years, then we'll see stablization and up movement. The States was hammered in places of 50% and now about 5 years later we're seeing some stability and prices up about 15% in some markets. Smart money got in 2009/2010. The hunter getting in now. The mass gets in 2-4 years from now and creates another bubble -- smart money gets out at that time and will come to Canada and buy.
Typically in Canada, we have periods where the housing market doubles on a relative basis to the stock market (ie: TSX = 12,000 for a decade, housing doubles from $175k to $350k). Alternating with cycles that the stock market triples on a relative basis to housing (ie: TSX = 4000 goes to 12,000, housing stays flat). Some of my previous posts go into the details of this, and how Canada's banking system is actually set up to perform very well during housing price declines. Transferring huge amounts of wealth from borrowers to bank shareholders and employees.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Sanyo wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 10:52 pm
Stupidity is the government who kept approving every joe blow builder with a permit to build a condo.

Should just stop right now handing permits to anybody and try to get the current inventory sold before approving any more permits.
You want to be the guy laying off all the construction workers (most of whom are highly indebted with mortgages) when prices still remain far higher than construction costs?

Let's just say...have good bodyguards on hand, because you'll probably need them. These aren't whimpy ex-Nortel employees who can be placated with prescriptions of Prozac, that's for sure.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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iownyou wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 11:15 pm
Not convinced yet....price will plateau first...and thats not happening yet
Plateaus are very difficult to detect until "after the fact". Canada's marketplace is characterized heavily by extremely volatile financing, and the CMHC guarantee limit looms ominously over the marketplace where the incremental buyer, despite claims of Asians, suitcases full of cash, etc., is actually just Canadians using minimal downpayments and CMHC insurance.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...

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