Real Estate

How many "Bubble" believers AKA Renters are in this Real Estate subsection

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 21st, 2017 3:38 pm

Poll: What's your status?

  • Total votes: 192. You have voted on this poll.
I'm a renter looking to buy. Will do so when the imagery market crashes.
 
18
9%
I'm an owner who bought before the market started to soar and enjoy the gains in my investments on a monthly basis.
 
42
22%
I just like to read all these bubble/ market crash threads for pure entertainment.
 
41
21%
I am still planning on buying now before it's too late.
 
13
7%
I am an owner and also believe there is a bubble/ market crash coming.
 
78
41%
Deal Guru
Jun 7, 2005
10358 posts
1482 upvotes
Toronto
alanbrenton wrote: Minor Correction = 20% or less correction from peak?
Major Correction = 20% or more correction?
Crash = 21% or more?

That's called "Renters' wish" Face With Tears Of Joy
Member
User avatar
Dec 16, 2013
228 posts
18 upvotes
Scarborough
mathiewannabe wrote: I don't mind renting forever, because real estate is just one form of investment..

but i did buy a preconstruction condo at a prime location last year, will take possession in 4-5 years.

by the looks of things (prices of preconstruction of some inferior locations), i already have more than 10% gain of condo price.
I was thinking of going the pre-con route as well. Just a simple 1 bedroom condo. Doesn't even need to be in a "prime" location so long as it's close to a major highway or subway station. But even these pre-con units are hugely expensive for me - most start at 290k minimum. I don't think I'll have *too* much trouble saving up for the down payment; it's rather the monthly payments I wouldn't be able to keep atop of. If you include the maintenance fees, taxes, and mortgage all together, the monthly payments would total at least ~$2400. That's 77% of my monthly take-home. At this point, I'm not sure how I'll ever get ahead financially.

But congrats - looks like you finally found a way out of renter's hell.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2003
1456 posts
158 upvotes
Owner, I follow the market for knowledge. I don't care about paper gains since I will live in my family home for the next 25+ years. We have rentals as well, but am more interested in annual income than capital gains right now.

I hope the market slows down for everyone's sake. If you are a bear then you maybe able to find a place to own finally when the market cools... If you are a bull and markets continue to sore, there's just that much higher risk something catastrophic will happen.
Sr. Member
Aug 7, 2014
563 posts
243 upvotes
NEW REAL ESTATE & STOCK MARKET TERMINOLOGY:
1. BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
2. BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance,the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
3. VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
4. P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
5. BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
6. FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
7. MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy an expensive condo or stock
8. CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
9. YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $1M condo
10. WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought your $1M condo.
11. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
12. PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.
Deal Addict
Jun 15, 2012
2837 posts
1011 upvotes
Saskatoon
cobs00 wrote: New category added. .

I am renter who is not looking to buy. Too much work.
No need to type thank you; upvote=thanks.
Buffett, investors are focusing “not on what an asset will produce but rather on what the next fellow will pay for it.”

“Because gold is honest money it is disliked by dishonest men.” – R. Paul
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
If tomorrow Toronto instituted a temporary ban on foreigners purchasing real estate (no foreign tax, outright ban) this would definitely pull the plug on the market.

Thats really if you wanna end this.. thats all you do... guaranteed it's all over...
Sr. Member
Aug 15, 2013
881 posts
419 upvotes
Guelph
Sanyo wrote: Thats really if you wanna end this
There you go. does the govt want to take actions that will have an actual impact? I kinda think its a resounding NO.

Most ppl with vested interest keep on harping the foreign buyer tax will not have any impact. Well than thats an easy call, bring it. Whats the harm?
Penalty Box
User avatar
Jul 11, 2008
4368 posts
1508 upvotes
Away from RFD idiots
dundeal wrote: There you go. does the govt want to take actions that will have an actual impact? I kinda think its a resounding NO.

Most ppl with vested interest keep on harping the foreign buyer tax will not have any impact. Well than thats an easy call, bring it. Whats the harm?
it won't. but sure, go ahead.

But I'll tell you something that will really cool down housing market.
Get BOC to raise interest rate by 1%+.
..
Deal Guru
Jun 7, 2005
10358 posts
1482 upvotes
Toronto
mathiewannabe wrote: it won't. but sure, go ahead.

But I'll tell you something that will really cool down housing market.
Get BOC to raise interest rate by 1%+.
Not 1% increase in one shot, but accumulated increase, yes, it ill happen very soon.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 15, 2005
6024 posts
1873 upvotes
Current homeowner, think house prices might be a little high, but expect a soft landing scenario, maybe a 5-10% reduction in price and then stagnation for a few years while incomes catch up.

I think anyone who feels that RE can crash to 90s levels so you can buy a detached at Yonge and Eg for 400K is crazy.
Deal Guru
Jun 7, 2005
10358 posts
1482 upvotes
Toronto
Ziggy007 wrote: Current homeowner, think house prices might be a little high, but expect a soft landing scenario, maybe a 5-10% reduction in price and then stagnation for a few years while incomes catch up.

I think anyone who feels that RE can crash to 90s levels so you can buy a detached at Yonge and Eg for 400K is crazy.
100% agree. The most people can expect is to stop having the double digit % increase every year.

Forget about buying a detached in any decent neigbhourhood for less than $1 million....... unless the government reverses the Greenbelt Act.

300,000 immigrants every year, majority comes to GTA, and they got to find a place to live, thus inevitably the RE demand is constant and high.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes
Ziggy007 wrote: Current homeowner, think house prices might be a little high, but expect a soft landing scenario, maybe a 5-10% reduction in price and then stagnation for a few years while incomes catch up.

I think anyone who feels that RE can crash to 90s levels so you can buy a detached at Yonge and Eg for 400K is crazy.
Wait , Has anyone has ever predicted a crash to the 90s? That's ludacris. We'd need something like a 95% correction off current prices. I don't think anyone is calling for that.

On the other hand I could envision a scenario where prices revert back to what they were just 3 short years ago. In certain places prices have risen almost 100% during that stretch. So that would be around a 50% correction.

And before the ultra bulls start attacking me, I'm not making a prediction. Just providing an example scenario that is in my opinion within the realm of possibility given the parabolic gains in just the last few years.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Apr 21, 2004
58648 posts
24637 upvotes
I told my wife to sell and move back to North York and rent a similar condo.

She didn't tell me to go to hell but the impression or feeling I got was similar. :)
Deal Fanatic
Mar 15, 2005
6024 posts
1873 upvotes
fdl wrote: Wait , Has anyone has ever predicted a crash to the 90s? That's ludacris. We'd need something like a 95% correction off current prices. I don't think anyone is calling for that.

On the other hand I could envision a scenario where prices revert back to what they were just 3 short years ago. In certain places prices have risen almost 100% during that stretch. So that would be around a 50% correction.

And before the ultra bulls start attacking me, I'm not making a prediction. Just providing an example scenario that is in my opinion within the realm of possibility given the parabolic gains in just the last few years.
Most bubble bears seem to hover around a 40-60% value drop during a crash.

Don't forget, a house that was 500K years ago and has gained 100% in value to 1M, only needs a 50% crash to get back to where it started
Deal Guru
May 1, 2012
10538 posts
11427 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote: Wait , Has anyone has ever predicted a crash to the 90s? That's ludacris. We'd need something like a 95% correction off current prices. I don't think anyone is calling for that.

On the other hand I could envision a scenario where prices revert back to what they were just 3 short years ago. In certain places prices have risen almost 100% during that stretch. So that would be around a 50% correction.

And before the ultra bulls start attacking me, I'm not making a prediction. Just providing an example scenario that is in my opinion within the realm of possibility given the parabolic gains in just the last few years.
No one here would argue with any RE bear if all they thought that properties were going to crash 10-30%. It is the ludicrous assumption these @$$clowns think that prices are going to crash >50% that really gets into the ignorant situation.

Look at kashirin for example, he is thinking it'll crash at least 60%. Ok, Sir. The funny thing is, even at a 60% crash, prices are still higher than they were when all the complaining started.
Deal Guru
Jun 7, 2005
10358 posts
1482 upvotes
Toronto
alanbrenton wrote: I told my wife to sell and move back to North York and rent a similar condo.

She didn't tell me to go to hell but the impression or feeling I got was similar. :)
I don't blame her, women in nature love to have a comfortable and stable home for the family. Especially when she is already in one, no way you can ask her to move and downsize to a tight living space in a condo and even worst if it is a rental (not stable) ;)
Sr. Member
Aug 15, 2013
881 posts
419 upvotes
Guelph
mathiewannabe wrote: it won't. but sure, go ahead.

But I'll tell you something that will really cool down housing market.
Get BOC to raise interest rate by 1%+.
Sure that would more than cool the market, but there's no way Poloz is going that way. Interest rates in theory have far reaching effect outside the housing market too. Arguably though, the low interest rate is not having the impact it should i.e. spur investment and instead has led to asset hoarding and speculation, and hence we see bubbles in most asset classes.

But as for the foreign buyer tax, it literally does not impact anyone else, you are only going to hit the market you want to, there won't be any other unintended consequences. So why not? Even if there are zero foreign buyers.. why not? At worst, you're putting a legislation to protect the future residents of the country. Like there simply is no case against it, but as we have seen for long.. realtors, speculators and ppl with vested interests will keep on saying that there are no foreign buyers but even a mention of taxing these "absent, non-existent buyers" will throw them off their seats.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5768 posts
3612 upvotes
Anikiri wrote: Look at kashirin for example, he is thinking it'll crash at least 60%. Ok, Sir. The funny thing is, even at a 60% crash, prices are still higher than they were when all the complaining started.
He's definaltey at the far end of the spectrum. His views are pretty extreme.
Jr. Member
Jun 24, 2011
158 posts
60 upvotes
West Lafayette, Indi…
dundeal wrote: But as for the foreign buyer tax, it literally does not impact anyone else
Of course it affects people. First of all it affects all the international students with rich parents gifting them money to make home purchases - therefore it affects local universities' recruiting overseas by taking away the cash cows - therefore it affects their budgets and local students get tuition hikes. Shops and restaurants are also going to suffer due to lower demand.

A tax is a tax and eventually it's the people living here that end up with the bill. But where the tax revenue is going is always difficult to trace.
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2005
3214 posts
387 upvotes
Vancouver
I have heard stories people sold their primary resident house to rent, anticipating a market crash (2008), a mild 10% correction did happened, but they expected more(30%+). Their rationale was that "10% just barely cover fees, why buy now?"
they waited and then market went back up. they thought, "if -10% is too expensive already, why buy now? plus i am losing money if I do buy"
they kept on renting for months and years and now being priced out.
some of them capitulated and have to settle to townhouse/condo or move to worse location to keep the size. some are still renting. of course they complain the hardest...which they only have themselves to blame.

Never use your own living house to try to time the market, if it doesn't work as you wish, you are screwed big time.

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