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If Trump was/is corrupt why would one believe the stock market gains?

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  • Mar 22nd, 2017 5:45 pm
[OP]
Sr. Member
Nov 29, 2014
680 posts
80 upvotes

If Trump was/is corrupt why would one believe the stock market gains?

The market was suppose to crash if Trump won. Instead it gained.

Why? Probably a mix of things. Deregulation, lower taxes and other incentives.

If we were to recall that Trump created Trump University, left people unpaid when his business went under and used tax loop holes to pay very little tax (relatively). All well he was getting rich or seemed to be. Basically, maximizing his brand and money were the soul purposes of these and other moves he and his company made. Even if they were not morally principled, it didn't seem to matter to him or his company.

If we were to believe for a second that the gain in the stock market was actually fuelled by Trumps rich friends investing in what they were told to.

Is it that to far off? Maybe.

I'm just thinking of the market and the wild ride up it's taking. Even in the face of some very questionable moves by the government on trade and other issues that make it seem a bit unstable. Usually that would bring weakness right? Not much weakness right now it seems. Which worries me.

If the move up is from Trump giving pointers to others on when to buy and sell. This could mean a larger than expected drop correct? It would mean the rise will be sustained until a point in which he says to get out. At that point a large chunk will be lifted from the stock market that was placed there since he became president. Leading to a dramatic and sustained drop down?

Maybe I'm just questioning things to much and not looking at the hard facts of his incentive based policies that should allow for better business opportunities and a higher stock market. What do you people think?
I play the video games H2, WC3. I bank with low fee or no fee banks like Implicity. If you got questions ask.
9 replies
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2009
3621 posts
1262 upvotes
well.... it could be worse -- the idiots like junior could be raising taxes, killing small business and think we are going to be a glowing economy for years -- not knowing france is trying the same thing and failing miserably.
Sr. Member
User avatar
Aug 4, 2014
955 posts
148 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Maybe.. :)
Given that markets around the world have rallied as much or more than the United States, then perhaps the underlying driver isn't United States-centric but something broader, global – such as an improving economy and healthy profits. There are no expectations of a tax reform or tax cuts or deregulation or repatriation in these other developed nations.

But if that's the case, it undercuts the mainstream narrative of U.S. animal spirits rekindled by those expectations in the U.S. markets.

Consider that most global equity markets had been rallying during the six months prior to the November U.S. elections. Over the same period, the U.S. markets were flat. If you want to make the claim that U.S. markets are now rallying because of that narrative, perhaps there is a better explanation.
There’s more behind the story of the U.S. market’s ‘Trump rally’
Deal Fanatic
Jan 27, 2006
5865 posts
1370 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
So far, nothing about any bad news has done anything crazy to the markets in the past 5 months. In an normal environment, the types of revelations that have came out recently would have sent assorted shock waves through the markets. I'm almost willing to put money on the fact that if Trump is found to be dirty, the markets would have already priced it in and nothing will happen (in terms of the market).
Sr. Member
Dec 5, 2015
797 posts
215 upvotes
Thornhill, ON
Sanyo wrote:
Mar 20th, 2017 11:32 pm
well.... it could be worse -- the idiots like junior could be raising taxes, killing small business and think we are going to be a glowing economy for years -- not knowing france is trying the same thing and failing miserably.
But our jobless is at multi year lows .. Exports growth is higher than it ever was under Harper

Clearly Trudeau has done a much better job than the previous govt could
Newbie
Nov 25, 2010
39 posts
16 upvotes
Fredericton
Doubleshot wrote:
Mar 21st, 2017 7:59 am
But our jobless is at multi year lows .. Exports growth is higher than it ever was under Harper

Clearly Trudeau has done a much better job than the previous govt could
I think you might want to read up on the difference between correlation and causation. ;^)
Sr. Member
Feb 1, 2015
581 posts
118 upvotes
MB
User230 wrote:
Mar 20th, 2017 10:40 pm
I'm just thinking of the market and the wild ride up it's taking. Even in the face of some very questionable moves by the government on trade and other issues that make it seem a bit unstable. Usually that would bring weakness right? Not much weakness right now it seems. Which worries me.
Trump is a distraction. Put aside his promises, and take a look at the economic data released the past few weeks.
the US economy has improved. Retail sales are a bit higher than expected, new manufacturing orders, employers added jobs, uptick in inflation that all lead to another raise in interest rate.

While I would expect a correction in the market, there are no apparent sign of a recession in the data.
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
2707 posts
490 upvotes
Real sustainable gains in the economy are based on real results (i.e. GDP created from real jobs and creation of value-added products) and not fictitious or exaggerated data presented by governments.

What we are seeing in the U.S. with the stock market isn't so much "results" but "optimism" fueled by the expectation of results. It seems to me that Trump is determined to create real jobs making real goods and so far he has spoken to many CEO's who plan to expand factories in the U.S. creating thousands of U.S. jobs in a variety of sectors. I believe if Trump is allowed to succeed, this will happen and the stock market will prove correct. However, if the dems continue to undermine his progress to bring him down or "resist" his governance then this will really hurt the U.S. economy and success in a detrimental way.
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2013
3809 posts
943 upvotes
Kingston, ON
choclover wrote:
Mar 21st, 2017 10:44 am
Real sustainable gains in the economy are based on real results (i.e. GDP created from real jobs and creation of value-added products) and not fictitious or exaggerated data presented by governments.

What we are seeing in the U.S. with the stock market isn't so much "results" but "optimism" fueled by the expectation of results. It seems to me that Trump is determined to create real jobs making real goods and so far he has spoken to many CEO's who plan to expand factories in the U.S. creating thousands of U.S. jobs in a variety of sectors. I believe if Trump is allowed to succeed, this will happen and the stock market will prove correct. However, if the dems continue to undermine his progress to bring him down or "resist" his governance then this will really hurt the U.S. economy and success in a detrimental way.
It's a little more nuanced than that. A lot of businesses are sticking to plans they had in place anyway; the US economy has been growing and at full employment for the past bit, so Trump inherited a 'turn-key' strong economy and market, so to speak. Companies are milking platitudes for announcing plans that were in the oven from long before any electoral outcome could be known. It works in their favour.

Democrats will continue to hammer hard on areas where the Trump admin is undermining itself; poor appointment vetting, questionable ties to foreign governments, nepotism & self-enrichment, but those largely fall outside the scope of business-friendly policies. 'Undermining' the travel bans is going to save tourism from being hurt. A strong opposition can also help mitigate any potential harm from a loose cannon, protectionist approach to international trade. Despite Republican rhetoric to the contrary, the bulk of the Democratic party is interested in keeping the US open for business, a fact no better demonstrated than by the continued influx of capital, investment, and jobs to the US under the Obama admin.

The market sees a strong US economy and sees Trump as not harming that, and potentially making favourable tax changes. That doesn't invalidate other concerns about the way he's running things, or make opposition to his admin anti-growth. There's a lot more to it politically. From the market's scope, however, everything's sunshine and rainbows.

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