International experts foresee collapse of U.S. economy

[George W. Bush]

Read the article at: http://www.intelligencer.ca/ArticleD....aspx?e=918803

Also http://hielema.ca/columns for other reads.

Very interesting indeed.

What is happening in the US - to this extent as of yet - has certainly created a lot of waves around the world, and the problems we have heard and read in the US are just a scratch of the real and perhaps the big problems still awaiting them, and the other economies which will suffer because of it.

Here are a few quotes from the above article, that I found interesting, and worth thinking and doing a little more research about.

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(1) ---------

"...how the losses of the American financial system will grow to more than $1 trillion - that's one million times $1 million. That amount is equal to all the assets of all American banks."

(2) ---------

"With unemployment growing, the next phase will hit commercial real estate making the financial institutions the unwilling owners not only of quickly depreciating houses, but also of empty strip malls and even larger shopping centres."

(3) ---------

"What we will have, instead, is truly a global momentous threat - a true turning point affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organized in the last decades."

(4) ---------

"It continues to predict that, although this crucial event is global, it will be the beginning of an economic 'decoupling' between the U.S. and the rest of the world. However, non 'decoupled' economies will be dragged down the U.S. negative spiral."

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It will continue to be interesting to see what happens with their economy. Last month, or example they lost about 65 000 jobs, whereas we gained 40 000 or so - even if all part-time, etc.

I personally was suspicious of the US economy as of early 2007 - the more propaganda you hear from the US government of "we have lower unemployment", "better economy", the worse things are... I get a feeling they say good things when in reality the opposite is true...

We will see what happens with their economy - it is very fragile indeed, and it could snap... anyone can see that...

[Valek]

Yay Bush! Look what he's done!

[jcoltage]

I love you - I am doing an essay thats due tomr on this very topic ...

My essay will profile the current declining course of the United States of America in its economic and military global authority, the essay will also examine their current economic policies in the 21st century and other growing nations which may pose a threat to the United States dominance in world order.

Thanks man

[PMech]

This expectation pretty much puts the death sentence on the economy..

Investors are going to start hoarding assets, exports in the US market will fall more so, coupled with the appreciation of all other wolrd wide currency against its already shambled dollar.

Plus more Canadian banks are in the process of re-changing rates again for summer, and π + πe = r, which is gonna bang em based on this article

[George W. Bush]

Plus more Canadian banks are in the process of re-changing rates again for summer, and π + πe = r, which is gonna bang em based on this article

What do you mean by "re-changing" rates - the Canadian rates have gone down a little, and so have mortgage rates (about .10% or so).

I also read that the US Federal Reserve will "pump" $200 BILLION (ie. print more fiat money backed by, well, paper...)... WOW... the idiocity...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080311/wall_street.html

[hugh_da_man]

The problem with these predictions is that they usually look at the worst outcome.

If the American economy falls apart then so does the economy of almost every major exporter. No country consumes as much as the US so bye bye to exports. I think almost every country will do their best to prop up the American economy. It's crucial to the growth of the world economy.

Without anyone doing anything I think the Americans would be in for hard times but I really doubt that will happen.

[alsamman]

**** happens, everyone gets their 10 minutes of fame until someone better comes along to take over.
China anyone?

[JeiJei]

U.S. economy collapse is inevitable in my opinion.

Their debt is too high to even just pay the interest off. The economy has been maintained mainly based on the credit or demand/purchasing power that US has along last couple of decades.

However, if US collapses (as a whole, lead by poor economic), before another great power takes over, the downfall of the US has to happen and expect around 20~50 years for this. During this period, the world economy is likely to shift, from export raw materials (petro, iron.. etc) to increasing efficiency of current tech as demand for raw materials is likely to fall without the big demand from the US (think China won't be able to sell all its production out, hence production level will decrease)

My economic sense somehow tells me the next US-like economic superpower will be a mid-east country or Japan. China is less likely as although demand is increasing, overall purchasing power is still low and without US demand, the economic expansion of China will be slower if not idling.

[alsamman]

U.S. economy collapse is inevitable in my opinion.

Their debt is too high to even just pay the interest off. The economy has been maintained mainly based on the credit or demand/purchasing power that US has along last couple of decades.

However, if US collapses (as a whole, lead by poor economic), before another great power takes over, the downfall of the US has to happen and expect around 20~50 years for this. During this period, the world economy is likely to shift, from export raw materials (petro, iron.. etc) to increasing efficiency of current tech as demand for raw materials is likely to fall without the big demand from the US (think China won't be able to sell all its production out, hence production level will decrease)

My economic sense somehow tells me the next US-like economic superpower will be a mid-east country or Japan. China is less likely as although demand is increasing, overall purchasing power is still low and without US demand, the economic expansion of China will be slower if not idling.

I find that it is unlikely for Japan to become a superpower because of the fact that the most important thing in maintaining superpower status is military strength and area. Japan is too small to defend itself against all other countries in the world because a country that small can be beaten by just numbers because of the limited land that posses.

A superpower in the middle east is very possible but I don't think it will ever be in ONE country. All these countries are predominantly Muslim and that is the only way they can become powerful. A powerful middle east can only be brought if Muslims all united which is unlikely to happen in the near future. If they continue to fight against each other, they will bring each country back down to where they started showing very little progress in a stronger economy, military power, etc.

[gordholio]

The US is heading for disaster and of course it will affect the whole world. The US has such a massive debt and trade deficit and shrinking dollar.

[gei]

oh brother. every kid likes to predict the "collapse" of the us economy these days. apparently it's the chic thing to do.

fact of the matter is the us is and will continue to be the economic powerhouse of the world... by a TREMENDOUSLY huge margin. if you check your history books you will see the us has held much bigger debts then it has currently, and has always been able to recover.

just like they will do this time.

[gordholio]

oh brother. every kid likes to predict the "collapse" of the us economy these days. apparently it's the chic thing to do.

fact of the matter is the us is and will continue to be the economic powerhouse of the world... by a TREMENDOUSLY huge margin. if you check your history books you will see the us has held much bigger debts then it has currently, and has always been able to recover.

just like they will do this time.

Of course the US is the biggest economy in the world, but ignore the signs at your own peril. The US has been living on borrowed time with a very high debt and extremely high trade deficits. This can't keep going on forever. Something has to give. I'm not a kid by the way, I'm almost 45. Things don't just continue on forever; changes happen and countries rise and fall. Just because we haven't seen the fall of the US doesn't mean things will just carry on and the US will be the eminent power it has been for the past 60 or so years.

[JeiJei]

fact of the matter is the us is and will continue to be the economic powerhouse of the world... by a TREMENDOUSLY huge margin. if you check your history books you will see the us has held much bigger debts then it has currently, and has always been able to recover.

just like they will do this time.

Hehe, it's just an economist dream to see such an economic idol as US falls. Much like what's happening to Britney. :p

Back to topic, US will surely recover, it's the basic idea of economic high and lows. Look at Argentina for example, they are doing great after the crisis. This is the nature pattern.

I am simply predicting the downfall of US being the economic superpower in the world, but US will surely remain as one of the major players in this game.

US economy collapse this time will lead to a shift of interest or degree of dependence for US (specially export-oriented country) from other countries. By the time of the shift being completed (20~50 years) US dominance in world market will then be less dominant. And some other countries, given the right execution being made, may be able to become the superpower (economically) as US is now.

[Justin]

**** happens, everyone gets their 10 minutes of fame until someone better comes along to take over.
China anyone?

I hope that never happens. Sure, many people hate the US but most of them probably hate China more.

[Efx]

Won't happen. As long as OIL is traded with US dollar.