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iPhone effect on business

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  • Sep 5th, 2007 9:25 pm
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[OP]
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iPhone effect on business

I wanted to ask the guru's here of how new products, like the Apple iPhone, coming out very soon, will affect stock prices?

The immediate ones that come to mind is of course AAPL and T. Since AT&T is the sole carrier.

Assuming iPhone would do pretty decent business, like iPods, at what point in time would one buy into these stocks?

a) a few months before product launch
b) just before product launch
c) after product launch to see how the sales are doing

Thanks,
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If you had to choose an answer from your choices, it would be a). In fact, I would say even before it was first announced.

(This isn't a stock tip, just my opinion.) However, the markets usually price things long before the launch of a product (Granted there is enough hype of success behind it), so really a) is already too late.
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goob3r wrote:
Jun 21st, 2007 3:34 pm
If you had to choose an answer from your choices, it would be a). In fact, I would say even before it was first announced.

(This isn't a stock tip, just my opinion.) However, the markets usually price things long before the launch of a product (Granted there is enough hype of success behind it), so really a) is already too late.
I agree with you. The best time to buy stocks is before any information is concepted. i.e. before the iphone became a possibility.
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Coolisme wrote:
Jun 21st, 2007 3:37 pm
I agree with you. The best time to buy stocks is before any information is concepted. i.e. before the iphone became a possibility.
Thanx. So let's say I did buy APPL, when would I sell it?


Also, would your opinion change if we were only talking about AT&T ? Since their business or profits come from subscribers, so they will see their numbers go up after a few months, after iPhone has been out.

BTW, I also agree that stock prices have these news priced in way ahead of time, that's normally what happens.
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I'm a newbie into the stock world and from the pattern i've seen i agree totally with the previous posters...it is ALWAYS best to buy in before the announcements are made....investors are always looking for the heads-up on when to buy into it...the earlier the information the better their chances of making huge profits...and so by that logic it is always best to knwo ahead of time...so in the iPhone case the best time to buy was before that MacWorld annoucement back in Jan/Feb. Interestingly, APPL stock did jump like 5% on surprise news recently (2 days ago?) before its launch about the amazing high battery life (better than most now) and scratch resistant glass screen. Buying in now would only be for returns based on realized sales on the phones...but i dont think the stock will jump much higher from what it is now since it already reflects the desires of the investors that it is going to have high demand already. Love the phone btw!
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If apple or at&t stocks goes up after the iphone launch, i doubt it'd be because of the phone. A successful launch is probably factored into the current price already due to apples track record in the last few years. If my decision for holding/selling these stocks are fully dependent on the iphone and nothing else, i'd honestly choose to sell.
[OP]
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Good points from all, thanx.

Hmm... AT&T's track for the last few years has been excellent technically (graph). So maybe good to hold onto that one.

Apple, ya, its more on hype and news.
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Apr 18, 2007
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If stock prices always went up after the successful launch of a new product, we'd all be rich ;)
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Jun 21, 2005
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i think that it will affects its share price but not immediately.
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Aug 19, 2006
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Price fluctuations in Apple and AT&T stocks will occur based on how the IPhone performs relative to expectations. All the IPhone hype is built into the price currently so it is too late on capitalize on its announcement / release.

My advice is to go out and physically hold one at the store upon release and judge for yourself how big a deal it will actually be. Do a valuation on both stocks to get a gage on how the market thinks the product it is going to perform. Keep in mind that companies like AT&T and Apple are very diversified and that success or failure of one product might not be a direct correlation to the stock price.

If you think there is a large discrepancy between the market price and your valuation then you have grounds to make a move. If you find the stock is highly under valued and there is a decent margin of safety buy it long, if its over valued with a large margin of safety sell it short.
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Jan 13, 2007
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Windsor
You would have been wise to buy AAPL in February at $83 or so/share. The stock is now around $125.

The general price target for the next year or so is in the area of $160 and I see no reason why AAPL will not reach this.

For a quick profit you could buy the stock now before the release of the iPhone and it should jump about 6-7% after the release. Profit takers will sell the stock after the increase causing the stock to drop for a day or two. So once you feel that the price has increased enough then you would sell and buy back in after a day or two when the stock has fallen 4% or so.

As for AT&T...they are the #2 wireless provider in the US. The iphone probably wont have that much of an effect on the stock. Rather, I would recommend taking a look at RCI.b on the TSX or RCI on the NYSE. Rogers Communications is a great stock in my opinion and it will be the sole provider of the iPhone in Canada. There is excellent opportunity for growth in the Canadian wireless market. However the possible merger of Bell and Telus may cause a problem for rogers.

Keep in mind that the risk involved with short term trading is much higher than long term investing. Making quick profits is not foolproof.

Both AAPL and RCI.b have treated me well so far and I plan on holding onto these stocks for at least the next 52weeks.
[OP]
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Thanks very much. Good points and i agree as well.

perhaps I should have posted that yes, I bought AAPL at $97 back then. Not exactly $83, but not too bad. So I'm wondering when to release these. But I do agree with the target you mentioned. Apple as I heard on many analysts, always spread some news of missed earnings, then only to release earnings that beat expectations, hence helps their stock price.

I was totally tracking RCI.b for many months and that darn thing just keeps going up. I was waiting for a drop to buy in and it never does ! I think I may just get it as you mentioned, I believe in a few years, Rogers is gonna dominate and just wipe out Telus, Bell, etc. Mergers would help much for Rogers' competitors, Rogers cable is just positioned so well. They have such a big capacity compared to our old Bell phonelines.



heavyweight wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2007 1:14 pm
You would have been wise to buy AAPL in February at $83 or so/share. The stock is now around $125.

The general price target for the next year or so is in the area of $160 and I see no reason why AAPL will not reach this.

For a quick profit you could buy the stock now before the release of the iPhone and it should jump about 6-7% after the release. Profit takers will sell the stock after the increase causing the stock to drop for a day or two. So once you feel that the price has increased enough then you would sell and buy back in after a day or two when the stock has fallen 4% or so.

As for AT&T...they are the #2 wireless provider in the US. The iphone probably wont have that much of an effect on the stock. Rather, I would recommend taking a look at RCI.b on the TSX or RCI on the NYSE. Rogers Communications is a great stock in my opinion and it will be the sole provider of the iPhone in Canada. There is excellent opportunity for growth in the Canadian wireless market. However the possible merger of Bell and Telus may cause a problem for rogers.

Keep in mind that the risk involved with short term trading is much higher than long term investing. Making quick profits is not foolproof.

Both AAPL and RCI.b have treated me well so far and I plan on holding onto these stocks for at least the next 52weeks.
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Jan 13, 2007
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Windsor
I would unload 30-50% of your AAPL after the next jump and then buy back in after it falls abit a day or two later....but if you dont have too many shares (ie. less than 50shares) you need to consider your transaction fees when deciding if its worth the trouble. You could just keep all your shares if you feel the stock is going to be worth holding onto. (I certainly do)

One reason why I believe Rogers will have great growth is because mobile phone users in Canada I believe is only around 50% of the population. The opportunity for growth is huge. RCI.b does not have much news and speculation or analyst covering the stock so the price does not fall significantly very often. Even Jim Cramer (Mad Money) took a second look at this stock and said it is probably the mobile communication stock...even better then Verizon.
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heavyweight wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2007 1:14 pm
As for AT&T...they are the #2 wireless provider in the US.
I didn't know this...i was always under the impression that their buying Cingular had finally made them the biggest wireless provider in the US. Who is the biggest...Sprint...Verizon?

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