Investing

Marijuana Stocks

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 20th, 2017 3:16 pm
Jr. Member
Nov 14, 2006
156 posts
20 upvotes
Vneckjersey wrote:
Oct 3rd, 2017 11:12 am
"If you had to pick one as an entry point what would you select today? knowing what you know now. Canopy, Aurora, or Aphria?"

I'm all in with Aphria out of those three. Organic growth (rather than using $s they don't have acquiring smaller grow companies), significant lowest per gram production cost by any grower, a CEO with a proven track record and the right business connections up the ying yang, only marijuana company that has turned positive EBITA three quarters running now, etc.

Good luck to all regardless of your stock choices!
They are also not the best weed out there, most of the patients/rec users will pay more for quality in the end, just my 2 cents

As I tell any new person wanting to invest without doing any DD , take your money and split it between WEED APH ACB. Look at it in 5 years and you will be fine.
Newbie
Sep 18, 2007
50 posts
5 upvotes
lilmikey wrote:
Oct 3rd, 2017 11:38 am
They are also not the best weed out there, most of the patients/rec users will pay more for quality in the end, just my 2 cents

As I tell any new person wanting to invest without doing any DD , take your money and split it between WEED APH ACB. Look at it in 5 years and you will be fine.
Their margin lies within oil extraction. No point spending more in indoor grows for potent buds if they end up juicing it. Vic says so himself.

Frankly they are not growing these things to get you nor me high. They are targeting patients with actual medical needs.

They did mention Phase IV will be earmarked for recreational. Perhaps with their co-gen power plants they can drastically reduce electricity cost therefore able to control the growth more precisely.
Member
Nov 29, 2005
329 posts
9 upvotes
Markham
If anyone agrees with me now,

THANK YOU WEED!!!
Member
User avatar
Jul 11, 2015
203 posts
95 upvotes
Victoria, BC
jerryhung wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 11:56 am
Crazy run in the last month

Can't believe I sold 1/3 WEED at $10 vs. now $12.7 price

ACB/APH are up big also
That's weed for ya! hopefully it continues to run to new highs before it comes crashing down again :P. interesting it ran so hard with no news, and now with this cbc story things r looking good. I guess that's how Weed rolls.
You're the average of the five people, you most associate with.
Newbie
Apr 23, 2017
79 posts
36 upvotes
imflying12 wrote:
Sep 23rd, 2017 10:26 pm
canopy because of its aggressive strategy but of course has been over spending v. other lps
But are they getting value for their spending? From what I can tell, ACB and APH will outpace them in production capacity mid-2018. Canopy has 9 current or planned facilities, but most of them are quite small.
Jr. Member
Nov 4, 2012
133 posts
9 upvotes
Burnaby
I sold WEED.TO....a little bit dissapointed but was able to make enough for a trip to asia.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 7, 2007
2468 posts
221 upvotes
GTA
WEED finally profitable for me. I averaged at $11. Woot woot. It's going to buy me that new iPhone X Smiling Face With Open Mouth
Newbie
Sep 18, 2016
67 posts
16 upvotes
holding and waiting
"Just because it's illogical doesn't mean it can't continue to move up"
Member
Nov 29, 2005
329 posts
9 upvotes
Markham
1Ogiku2 wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 2:59 pm
holding and waiting
might as well..legalization is coming up soo soon...
Newbie
Sep 17, 2017
22 posts
6 upvotes
Sigh, It's really hard with the stocks...

Are these stocks a long term hold though?

I never know when to just realize the gains. Is 20% ROI enough? No, I can hold it longer and it'll make more...

Ok, 30%. Who wouldn't want 30% ROI, I'll wait...

Pull back, damn now it's only at 15% ROI... what should I do.

Now' i'm back to 20% ROI.. Should I sell?

What is one supposed to do? I don't necessarily need the money, but when should one pull out their investment and realize their gains?

When do you guys sell? I always think.. oh man, if I see now, i'll lose out on all the gains I will ahve in the future. Is it because I don't really need the money? Is that why?
Member
Nov 13, 2011
388 posts
95 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
jasonluck wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 4:09 pm
Sigh, It's really hard with the stocks...

Are these stocks a long term hold though?

I never know when to just realize the gains. Is 20% ROI enough? No, I can hold it longer and it'll make more...

Ok, 30%. Who wouldn't want 30% ROI, I'll wait...

Pull back, damn now it's only at 15% ROI... what should I do.

Now' i'm back to 20% ROI.. Should I sell?

What is one supposed to do? I don't necessarily need the money, but when should one pull out their investment and realize their gains?

When do you guys sell? I always think.. oh man, if I see now, i'll lose out on all the gains I will ahve in the future. Is it because I don't really need the money? Is that why?
You sell when you know you can make more money elsewhere
Deal Addict
Mar 14, 2007
2554 posts
108 upvotes
Toronto
what a crazy roller coaster ride it has been for the past 5 months, I was down -50% thinking of pulling out but i decided to ride it out and now im finally in the green. I should've avg'd when it was in the 7s back in the summer but i'll take profit anyday.
Newbie
Sep 18, 2007
50 posts
5 upvotes
jasonluck wrote:
Oct 5th, 2017 4:09 pm
Sigh, It's really hard with the stocks...

Are these stocks a long term hold though?

I never know when to just realize the gains. Is 20% ROI enough? No, I can hold it longer and it'll make more...

Ok, 30%. Who wouldn't want 30% ROI, I'll wait...

Pull back, damn now it's only at 15% ROI... what should I do.

Now' i'm back to 20% ROI.. Should I sell?

What is one supposed to do? I don't necessarily need the money, but when should one pull out their investment and realize their gains?

When do you guys sell? I always think.. oh man, if I see now, i'll lose out on all the gains I will ahve in the future. Is it because I don't really need the money? Is that why?
Set your own expectation.

I can't really comment on WEED because I am not familiar with their financials (there has been lot of in-depth break down on reddit and stockhouse - to each its own) but lets do some napkin math on APH here for a moment.

Their phase IV expansion is now fully funded and is set to complete in summer 2019, with total production capacity of 100,000kg. Now going with Trudeau's proposed $10/g, with $1 excise + 30-40% profit for retail distribution, that leaves about $5/g revenue for LPs. Lets suppose 75% of APH's harvest is earmarked for rec sales ($5/g) and the remaining 25% is for medical sales ($7.5/g). That should produce roughly $562 mil revenue annually. If we extrapolate their 2017 fiscal year, their net profit was roughly 20% of their total revenue (disclaimer: Q3/Q4 were skewed by short term investment).

EPS: ($562 mil * 20%) / 138.82 mil outstanding shares = 0.8097
Projected Market value per share = EPS * P/E = 0.8097 * 20 = $16.19 per share

Now of course this is just very very rough estimates. Tons of unknown here:
- Can they maintain 20% margin in profit, which is absurdly high for low cost commodities? Probably not, but with the introduction of oil extraction and infused edibles, maybe.
- Can they really deliver 100,000kg per year? Can't say for sure, but they upped their estimates from 75,000kg to 100,000kg annual harvest last Q, so these guys must be doing something right.
- Will they be able to sell out their annual harvest? For the time being maybe; demand is projected to outweigh supplier for the first few years following legalization.
- Will there be more dilution? The good thing is APH maintains a postive OPEX so unless they requires funding for further expansion, I don't see a reason to dilute for keeping the lights on. Can't say the same for others though.
- I also randomly picked 20 for P/E which is modest relative to the S/P 500.

I have not include any of their international expeditions such as their stakes in Arizona, Florida, and potentially Ohio. I also did not include their intellectual properties sales, royalty sales with Nuuvera, LHS, etc.

Once again, set your own expectation and timeline for the companies you invested in.

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