Investing

[Merged] Another bloody red day on the TSX

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 12th, 2017 11:51 am
Newbie
Jun 28, 2017
44 posts
7 upvotes
It's both. Incomes have stagnated for the past 20 years, in spite of the main party's promises that closer ties with China would drive up the economy for all. But Chinese have also been storing their cash in Taipei. This has led to a construction boom, with supply far outstripping demand for housing, yet prices continued to climb because Chinese investors didn't care about rents. The fact that the main party (the KMT) is the richest party in the world thanks to all the property it seized when it took refuge on the island in 1949 has not helped. They have a vested interest in keeping prices high. But they're out of power now for only the second time since 1949, so I wonder if things might change. I haven't kept an eye on it recently.
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2014
987 posts
172 upvotes
Ontario
jerryhung wrote:
Aug 11th, 2017 8:15 pm
From BNN, just one point of view
http://www.bnn.ca/david-cockfield-s-top ... D=16383905
If only it were a zero sum game. If US goes down, Canada must go up this person says. As if the two markets are equals, taking turns going back and forth like a glorious race between two evenly matched competitors.

What if the Canadian market is fairly valued and US is overvalued. Does that mean the Canadian market will go up now? Why?

Or what if the Canadian market is overvalued and the US market is just even more overvalued?

Or what if the US market is filled with industry leading companies in growth areas like tech while Canada insists on an economy built on extracting natural resources, and banking and insurance (two industries intent on adding no value)? Well then should it be no surprise then that the US market is outperforming???
Deal Fanatic
Jun 26, 2011
9915 posts
876 upvotes
Markham
If people are thinking this is a bad drop.....there is gonna be some major pain when a real correction comes.
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
20131 posts
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Waterloo
RolandCouch wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 11:51 am
If people are thinking this is a bad drop.....there is gonna be some major pain when a real correction comes.
Problem is, TSX hasn't seen any meaningful pop at all (despite crude is closer to $50 than $40)
So it goes stairs down while US is all-time high, and Elevator down when US drops too
The longer it goes, the less people want to invest in TSX/Canada
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Sr. Member
Nov 28, 2010
874 posts
118 upvotes
Brampton
So any extra cash should be held onto until the real correction or delegate now and borrow to invest when/if things get worse?
Member
Feb 26, 2017
246 posts
62 upvotes
endokuken wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 12:09 pm
So any extra cash should be held onto until the real correction or delegate now and borrow to invest when/if things get worse?
I'd probably just invest when you have funds. Try to buy companies that are fairly or undervalued. Sometimes it works out great other times its less than ideal. Overall, it should work out over time.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Apr 21, 2004
40176 posts
9435 upvotes
Besides North Korea, what other possible black swans are there?

Trump has been on the sit for almost a year already.
Member
Oct 27, 2014
360 posts
250 upvotes
Toronto, ON
alanbrenton wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 12:17 pm
Besides North Korea, what other possible black swans are there?

Trump has been on the sit for almost a year already.
If you can predict it, then it is not a black swan. So no point predicting it. Just ensure you have liquidity at all times
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Apr 21, 2004
40176 posts
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muppetslayer wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 12:21 pm
If you can predict it, then it is not a black swan. So no point predicting it. Just ensure you have liquidity at all times
You cannot predict when it will occur but of course, it helps to know what some of these events are. I never asked when (and the magnitude) because like you said, that's impossible to find that out unless one is the Korean dictator or a cuckoo out to hurt other people and even then, the magnitude will still be an unknown.

=====

5-6% down from the all time high and people are complaining?
Sr. Member
Jun 15, 2012
778 posts
60 upvotes
MB
alanbrenton wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 12:17 pm
Besides North Korea, what other possible black swans are there?

Trump has been on the sit for almost a year already.
20 trillions USA debt is not enough?
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
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Deal Expert
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Apr 21, 2004
40176 posts
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ukrainiandude wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 10:01 pm
20 trillions USA debt is not enough?
As we all have witnessed, the US can pile up as much debt as it can as long as the USD is the de facto global reserve currency for central banks.

Only when these holdings are massively dump by China will it pressure yields to rise. I doubt China will ever do that and jeopardize its own economy. I think Japan is happy with they bond yields they are getting on their USD treasury holdings.
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Dec 14, 2010
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jerryhung wrote:
Aug 18th, 2017 11:55 am
Problem is, TSX hasn't seen any meaningful pop at all (despite crude is closer to $50 than $40)
So it goes stairs down while US is all-time high, and Elevator down when US drops too
The longer it goes, the less people want to invest in TSX/Canada
I believe that's because TSX, the index, is heavily concentrated in energy and financial sectors only. But many other stocks and sectors are doing better. LNR has been undervalued for some time, look at their performance this year. Same with CJR.B. Look at CCA, WJA, RCI.B or RCH. Or stocks in the defensive sector like LAS.A. Utilities sector. Meanwhile many companies are fairly valued or undervalued, which is ideal if you want to invest in Canadian stocks. It's a lot harder to invest in US stocks now.


Rod
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Deal Addict
Jun 3, 2009
3658 posts
434 upvotes
Montreal
rodbarc wrote:
Aug 19th, 2017 8:52 am
I believe that's because TSX, the index, is heavily concentrated in energy and financial sectors only. But many other stocks and sectors are doing better. LNR has been undervalued for some time, look at their performance this year. Same with CJR.B. Look at CCA, WJA, RCI.B or RCH. Or stocks in the defensive sector like LAS.A. Utilities sector. Meanwhile many companies are fairly valued or undervalued, which is ideal if you want to invest in Canadian stocks. It's a lot harder to invest in US stocks now.


Rod
Aren't RCH and LAS.A massively overvalued on FASTGraphs?

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