Investing

[Merged] Another bloody red day on the TSX

  • Last Updated:
  • May 24th, 2018 12:58 pm
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2001
2619 posts
866 upvotes
GTA
ksgill wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 2:06 pm
Let's see how many more jobs are lost in Ontario when the minimum wage moves to $15/hour next January.



For the record, it's a loss of 137,000 part time jobs and a gain of 49,000 full time jobs. Unless a full time job is equivalient of 2.79 part time jobs, looks like a net loss to me but I am no economist.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... since-2009
Think of it this way: People with part-time jobs tend to have multiple jobs to try and make ends meet. All the while still generating less income than a full-time position. If you were to ask these people if they would trade their two (sometimes three or more!) part-time jobs for one full time position, I think you would find the answer to be unequivocally yes.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 24, 2008
5503 posts
1539 upvotes
Toronto
Shaun80 wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 1:57 pm
Don't mind the loss but hate the recovery time two years for a 20 percent drop or more (seems likely now) to recover on average . You guys are patient people I have to train myself to be .
Remember that you'll also be investing in those two years while the markets are recovering (if it takes that long).

If you are buying something, would you want the price of that item to be lower or higher? This ultimately ties into your investment time horizon as you should be taking risk off the table as you get close to your goals. For example, if you need money in 5 years, you probably don't want to be overexposed to stocks but if you don't need this money for the next 15 years, there is enough time for your investment to recover and you can take a little more risk.

The only real fear, when it comes to investing, is a 25 year Bear market (Japan) or a catastrophic complete loss. If you think that's a possibility, you probably shouldn't be investing anything more than you can afford to lose. Only you can decide what that number is but if this is not the case, these corrections and bear markets should be accepted and even welcomed by young investors.
Last edited by ksgill on Feb 9th, 2018 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Jr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
132 posts
9 upvotes
Good point you will be buying low in those two years
Deal Fanatic
Mar 24, 2008
5503 posts
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Toronto
N8Magic wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 2:25 pm
Think of it this way: People with part-time jobs tend to have multiple jobs to try and make ends meet. All the while still generating less income than a full-time position. If you were to ask these people if they would trade their two (sometimes three or more!) part-time jobs for one full time position, I think you would find the answer to be unequivocally yes.
Yes, but I am trying to deduce whether it's a net loss or gain? If we assume that an average part-time job offers 16 hours of employment per week and a full-time job offers 40 hours per week, the job loss numbers mean that it's a net loss in jobs. I don't know the real numbers but intuitively looks like a net loss (137,000/49000). Then again, it's only 1 month of data, let's see what happens in the coming months.

The bolded argument is subjective as people who are semi-retired, retired, people with disabilities and students may not "unequivocally" prefer/accept a full-time job over a part time job. Less part-time jobs mean less opportunities for this segment of the population.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Member
Feb 5, 2017
234 posts
155 upvotes
I don't know why are people afraid on this board these days ??

There are NO alternatives to stock market investing (something liquid, not something like a GIC or god forbid a house) ! The only real competing alternative is a HISA.
So you should be comparing your portfolio result with the average HISA interest % ... and then again, interests are the worse in terms of tax treatment.
So basically, if you're making more than 1% a year on the stock market these days, you are making more money than the average joe.

10 or 20 or 50% sell off are the BEST time to BUY.. So you should continue to invest as you did before following the same pattern.

* DO NOT SELL * there are no ways to predict the bottom or any raise. Continue to buy as much as you can !
Deal Addict
Apr 21, 2014
1535 posts
493 upvotes
Alberta
Shaun80 wrote:
Feb 3rd, 2018 10:41 am
Just for curiousity how did people do last week with the downturn in markets , I lost about 4 percent of portfolio 14 grand last week index ETFs all equity and a small amount in weed stocks. Anyone care to share ?
I do my net worth monthly and lost 12k since Jan 10 - feb 9th.

Not a big deal, due for a correction anyway.
Jr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
132 posts
9 upvotes
The people who made out best are the people who were part of the mass sell off a couple Fridays ago and cashed out and are re investing now lol ... Those are the geniuses
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2013
4746 posts
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Kingston, ON
Worth noting January is also when Christmas seasonal part-time jobs always end, every year, so there's that. The minimum wage change can't have helped either though.

As always, for the truly curious, there's a lot more data in the actual Labour Force Survey than the summaries in the news,

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidie ... 9a-eng.htm

The data tables are enough to choke a horse. Here's one on part time workers by reasons given for part-time work:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... able&csid=
Here's one on actual hours worked:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... able&csid=

So it looks like total hours work did drop... though the biggest chunk looks to be among people who worked high hours between all jobs (so people who had part-time seasonal jobs on top of other work?).
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Aug 4, 2014
1340 posts
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Toronto, ON
Shaun80 wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 3:08 pm
The people who made out best are the people who were part of the mass sell off a couple Fridays ago and cashed out and are re investing now lol ... Those are the geniuses
How many of them do you know? :) "Do NOT read beauty magazines, they will only make you feel ugly" :)

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Deal Addict
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Aug 3, 2005
1211 posts
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Markham
overall portfolio down around 6% ! holding tight and wait for quarterly rebalance (end of march) to move more money in to buy.
Last edited by Kyle_87 on Feb 9th, 2018 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
132 posts
9 upvotes
There must have been a lot of people since it was a mass sell off lol .... I read there was computer algorithms that lead people and fund managers to cash out . I don't need the money know so I'm ok but these computer algorithms may be a way of the future for trading
Deal Addict
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Aug 4, 2014
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Toronto, ON
Shaun80 wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 3:28 pm
There must have been a lot of people since it was a mass sell off lol .
Yes - and there was a beautiful explanation in another thread:
craftsman wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 2:48 pm
What is here today was the bet that the markets would stay calm and hedge funds (as well as the average investor) putting money into those bets and using leverage to increase returns over the market. Many of those bets used instruments which were inversely correlated with market volatility and some of them were leveraged (so 2x or 3x). Well, those instruments blew up and blew up BIG as we saw in the past few days. As they blew-up (some lost 95% in minutes), margins were called which forced selling of stock to cover those calls. The force selling of stock triggered computerized trading algorithms to act and cause more selling...

If anything, what we are seeing now a motivated slow flash crash where computerize trading feed on lower stocks and constantly driving prices down quickly as algorithms got out of positions at any cost.
Would you like to be a genius with a margin call? :)
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Sep 19, 2004
21371 posts
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Waterloo
TSX -31 (-0.2%), so that's 8 RED days out of last 9 sessions, wow. YTD -8%

SPY YTD -3%

US had a WILD day and WILD week
For the week, Dow down 5.2%, S&P down 5.2%, Nasdaq down 5.1%

At the close
Dow +1.41% to 24,196.50. S&P +1.5% to 2,619.92. Nasdaq +1.44% to 6,874.18.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.37%. 10-yr -0.07%. 5-yr +0.01%.
Commodities: Crude -3.19% to $59.20. Gold -0.2% to $1,316.40.
Currencies: Euro -0.03% vs. dollar. Yen +0.04%. Pound +0.65%.
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Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2015
1496 posts
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Toronto, ON
Mike15 wrote:
Feb 9th, 2018 3:08 pm
Worth noting January is also when Christmas seasonal part-time jobs always end, every year, so there's that. The minimum wage change can't have helped either though.

As always, for the truly curious, there's a lot more data in the actual Labour Force Survey than the summaries in the news,

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidie ... 9a-eng.htm

The data tables are enough to choke a horse. Here's one on part time workers by reasons given for part-time work:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... able&csid=
Here's one on actual hours worked:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... able&csid=

So it looks like total hours work did drop... though the biggest chunk looks to be among people who worked high hours between all jobs (so people who had part-time seasonal jobs on top of other work?).
The data should be seasonally adjusted.

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